Bill Simmons' "Trade Value List", 2022 edition

[Mike87]

I glanced at it briefly and a lot of inconsistencies. Trae at 17 and Ja at 5 even though both on max deals? For a lot of the young guys, its only a matter of time before they're on max contracts which it doesn't seem like he's taking into account. Edwards and Cade at 8 and 15 with Ball at 33?

Ja's cap is about 9 mil for next season before it jumps. Young is already at the 30 level. So that's a HUGE difference if we trade right now! I think many also see Ja has having the higher ceiling though that's completely subjective I'd assume.

Thats definitely a big difference in cap hit but its still just one year of that difference. I feel like he's putting too much emphasis on that one-year in this list if you're thinking long-term. Also think some of his bias is showing as he thought both Trae and Ball would be busts

[dhsilv2]

I glanced at it briefly and a lot of inconsistencies. Trae at 17 and Ja at 5 even though both on max deals? For a lot of the young guys, its only a matter of time before they're on max contracts which it doesn't seem like he's taking into account. Edwards and Cade at 8 and 15 with Ball at 33?

Ja's cap is about 9 mil for next season before it jumps. Young is already at the 30 level. So that's a HUGE difference if we trade right now! I think many also see Ja has having the higher ceiling though that's completely subjective I'd assume.

Thats definitely a big difference in cap hit but its still just one year of that difference. I feel like he's putting too much emphasis on that one-year in this list if you're thinking long-term. Also think some of his bias is showing as he thought both Trae and Ball would be busts

It's about how much you can get RIGHT NOW! And by having that lower salary it makes it MUCH easier to workout deals TODAY! A team that's already nearing the cap can't sign a Young because they'd have to give up players that the other team may not even want to make the salary work. Instead with Ja, it's much easier to make the cap work and then top it off with picks or whatever. Just way more options with a lower salary. And this list is absolutely about their trade value right now this minute!

A lot of people also just see Ja as the better prospect right now...that's a whole other debate, but long term Trae's defense is going to remain an issue.

[Domejandro]

This legitimately might be one of the most poorly constructed articles I have ever read, and the content within the poorly constructed article is also not very good.

[toooskies]

I think Houston would trade Green or Jabari, Chicago would trade Lavine, Toronto would trade Siakam (8 years older), Milwaukee would trade Jrue (12 years older!), Pelicans would trade Ingram, each for LaMelo Ball. I also don't get why Bill values Cade 15 and LaMelo 33 when LaMelo has higher scoring upside at the same size/passing ability. Because of 1 extra year on contract

Good lord ingram for ball

Why is that funny?

Ball and Ingram had the same TS%, with Ingram having a small lead in points per 36 while LaMelo leads in REBs, ASTs, steals, win shares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR. And Ball is four years younger.

That's before you get to salary, controllable years, or the advantages of having a 6'7" PG.

If you get offered Ball for Ingram, I don't know why you wouldn't take Ball every time.

[Ruma85]

I think Houston would trade Green or Jabari, Chicago would trade Lavine, Toronto would trade Siakam (8 years older), Milwaukee would trade Jrue (12 years older!), Pelicans would trade Ingram, each for LaMelo Ball. I also don't get why Bill values Cade 15 and LaMelo 33 when LaMelo has higher scoring upside at the same size/passing ability. Because of 1 extra year on contract

Good lord ingram for ball

Why is that funny?

Ball and Ingram had the same TS%, with Ingram having a small lead in points per 36 while LaMelo leads in REBs, ASTs, steals, win shares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR. And Ball is four years younger.

That's before you get to salary, controllable years, or the advantages of having a 6'7" PG.

If you get offered Ball for Ingram, I don't know why you wouldn't take Ball every time.

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

[Mike87]

Ja's cap is about 9 mil for next season before it jumps. Young is already at the 30 level. So that's a HUGE difference if we trade right now! I think many also see Ja has having the higher ceiling though that's completely subjective I'd assume.

Thats definitely a big difference in cap hit but its still just one year of that difference. I feel like he's putting too much emphasis on that one-year in this list if you're thinking long-term. Also think some of his bias is showing as he thought both Trae and Ball would be busts

It's about how much you can get RIGHT NOW! And by having that lower salary it makes it MUCH easier to workout deals TODAY! A team that's already nearing the cap can't sign a Young because they'd have to give up players that the other team may not even want to make the salary work. Instead with Ja, it's much easier to make the cap work and then top it off with picks or whatever. Just way more options with a lower salary. And this list is absolutely about their trade value right now this minute!

A lot of people also just see Ja as the better prospect right now...that's a whole other debate, but long term Trae's defense is going to remain an issue.

Yes its about trade value right now but that doesn't mean you only take into account next year. You still have to account for the long-term prospects of the players. Ja will make it easier to build around for just one year, you still have to factor in the future.

Yeah debating Trae vs Ja is a whole other discussion that will probably be going on for years.

[edmunder_prc]

I also don't get why Bill values Cade 15 and LaMelo 33 when LaMelo has higher scoring upside at the same size/passing ability. Because of 1 extra year on contract

I know many people didnt watch Cade after the all-star break, honestly Pistons bball is not must watch at this point. But Cade was playing without Grant, just a bunch of year 2-3 players, and looking like Jordan. His scoring upside is #1 scorer in the league. He just put on 15lbs of muscle, he looks jacked compared to last year.

Cade's college 3point shooting is where he will be probably even this year with the added strength. He has a nasty mid-range game, and he can score at will around the rim with a bunch of moves and counter-moves. Not to mention elite defense.

Honestly I'm not sure who the Pistons would consider trading Cade for, because Cade, Ivey, Bey, Livers, Stewart, Duren looks pretty good to start with. With max cap space to boot.

[BK_2020]

Good lord ingram for ball

Why is that funny?

Ball and Ingram had the same TS%, with Ingram having a small lead in points per 36 while LaMelo leads in REBs, ASTs, steals, win shares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR. And Ball is four years younger.

That's before you get to salary, controllable years, or the advantages of having a 6'7" PG.

If you get offered Ball for Ingram, I don't know why you wouldn't take Ball every time.

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

[sp6r=underrated]

This legitimately might be one of the most poorly constructed articles I have ever read, and the content within the poorly constructed article is also not very good.

It legit felt like he wrote something just to prove to himself he could still write.

[Scalabrine]

Per 100 Possessions (Rounded to nearest .5):
Player A
24ppg/7rpg/4.5apg/1bpg/1.5spg 56 ts%

Player B
22ppg/10rpg/5apg/1bpg/1.5spg 55 ts%

Both players are gonna be 21 this season.

Spoiler:

Player A is Franz Wagner, Player B is Scottie Barnes
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=wagnefr01&player_id2=barnesc01

[Roger Murdock]

Jrue is perhaps the worst ranked player in the history of the column

He’s ranked 20 despite

1. If he was the best player on your team, that team would be absolutely awful
2. Under no circumstance is he a top 20 player in the NBA
3. He hasn’t played at a high level in the playoffs the last 2 years
4. He’s old and past his prime
5. He’s not on a bargain contract
6. He’s not even one of the best second options in the nBa or even his teams second best players

I’d have him somewhere around the 50th-60th

He’s probably around the 45th best individual player in the league + is old and on a big contract

[Big J]

Of course Luka gets points for being younger, but the point is, it’s not close. The difference in PER between Jokic and Luka is the same as the difference between Luka and Jalen Brunson, and Jokic effects the game much more in ways that aren’t measured by the box score. Luka has a loooooong way to go to ever be as good as Jokic is right now.

Luka just took down the Suns team that swept Jokic last year.

Nuggets lost in 5 to the warriors.

The previous year bro.

[hoosierdaddy34]

No team from the 11-30 range are trading those guys for Evan Mobley.

Are you kidding me? Many would.

But you are looking at this wrong. What would team x give up for Evan Mobley vs say PG or Siakem or Jrue? Teams would absolutely give up more to acquire Mobley. Without question.

[BleedGreen1989]

I think Houston would trade Green or Jabari, Chicago would trade Lavine, Toronto would trade Siakam (8 years older), Milwaukee would trade Jrue (12 years older!), Pelicans would trade Ingram, each for LaMelo Ball. I also don't get why Bill values Cade 15 and LaMelo 33 when LaMelo has higher scoring upside at the same size/passing ability. Because of 1 extra year on contract

Good lord ingram for ball

Why is that funny?

Ball and Ingram had the same TS%, with Ingram having a small lead in points per 36 while LaMelo leads in REBs, ASTs, steals, win shares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR. And Ball is four years younger.

That's before you get to salary, controllable years, or the advantages of having a 6'7" PG.

If you get offered Ball for Ingram, I don't know why you wouldn't take Ball every time.

Yeah, if I had Ball I would not trade him for Ingram.

[hoosierdaddy34]

Why is that funny?

Ball and Ingram had the same TS%, with Ingram having a small lead in points per 36 while LaMelo leads in REBs, ASTs, steals, win shares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR. And Ball is four years younger.

That's before you get to salary, controllable years, or the advantages of having a 6'7" PG.

If you get offered Ball for Ingram, I don't know why you wouldn't take Ball every time.

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

Um I like LaMelo but there is nothing in his game that points to him becoming a good to great defender. I think if he gets to mediocre, they are really happy.

And him playing a “less important position on defense” kind of points to Ingrams value. So I’m not sure what you are trying to argue there.

[loserX]

I'm as big a Jrue fan as they come, but he's the perfect example of the difference between "his team doesn't want to trade him" (which can certainly be legit) and "this is his trade value". Simmons seems to be mixing and matching in order to protect his tiers for some reason.

I mean we just got a pretty good assessment of Rudy Gobert's trade value, and it had four unprotected picks, a protected pick, their most recent pick, and a couple of lower-level prospects. Is Jrue's *trade value* really higher than that?? It sure wasn't the last time he actually got traded.

[BK_2020]

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

Um I like LaMelo but there is nothing in his game that points to him becoming a good to great defender. I think if he gets to mediocre, they are really happy.

And him playing a “less important position on defense” kind of points to Ingrams value. So I’m not sure what you are trying to argue there.

Um, I literally tell you what about his game points to him becoming a good to great defender.
Also him playing a less important position on defense means quite a lot given that they rate as similar defenders by advanced metrics.

[amcoolio]

I also don't get why Bill values Cade 15 and LaMelo 33 when LaMelo has higher scoring upside at the same size/passing ability. Because of 1 extra year on contract

I know many people didnt watch Cade after the all-star break, honestly Pistons bball is not must watch at this point. But Cade was playing without Grant, just a bunch of year 2-3 players, and looking like Jordan. His scoring upside is #1 scorer in the league. He just put on 15lbs of muscle, he looks jacked compared to last year.

Cade's college 3point shooting is where he will be probably even this year with the added strength. He has a nasty mid-range game, and he can score at will around the rim with a bunch of moves and counter-moves. Not to mention elite defense.

Honestly I'm not sure who the Pistons would consider trading Cade for, because Cade, Ivey, Bey, Livers, Stewart, Duren looks pretty good to start with. With max cap space to boot.

I agree with you on Cade, he's going to be very good. I just think LaMelo is similar and doesn't warrant being rated 18 spots later. I think this is a case of Simmons not really liking Ball because of Charlotte's playoff performance.

LaMelo had a really, really good age 19-20 season. He's 20! There is no way you can tell me the Raptors wouldn't trade Siakam at age 28 for Ball, or the Bucks Jrue at 32 for Ball.

Also I would definitely not trade Ball for Green or Jabari Smith and I still maintain Houston would be really dumb not to acquire Ball for either of those two. A LaMelo/Green backcourt is deadly and so would LaMelo with Eason/Jabari/Sengun

[dhsilv2]

Thats definitely a big difference in cap hit but its still just one year of that difference. I feel like he's putting too much emphasis on that one-year in this list if you're thinking long-term. Also think some of his bias is showing as he thought both Trae and Ball would be busts

It's about how much you can get RIGHT NOW! And by having that lower salary it makes it MUCH easier to workout deals TODAY! A team that's already nearing the cap can't sign a Young because they'd have to give up players that the other team may not even want to make the salary work. Instead with Ja, it's much easier to make the cap work and then top it off with picks or whatever. Just way more options with a lower salary. And this list is absolutely about their trade value right now this minute!

A lot of people also just see Ja as the better prospect right now...that's a whole other debate, but long term Trae's defense is going to remain an issue.

Yes its about trade value right now but that doesn't mean you only take into account next year. You still have to account for the long-term prospects of the players. Ja will make it easier to build around for just one year, you still have to factor in the future.

Yeah debating Trae vs Ja is a whole other discussion that will probably be going on for years.

You have Ja for another year as well in this...so it's easier to trade now and 1 more year of control. Win win win...it's a huge difference.

[dhsilv2]

This legitimately might be one of the most poorly constructed articles I have ever read, and the content within the poorly constructed article is also not very good.

It's not intended as a standalone article. It's suppose to be a primer for listening/watching the podcast.