Post#93 » by Bel » Fri Sep 9, 2022 4:32 am
There's an economics side to this too, supply and demand. If everyone is trying to win and feels tanking will be dishonorable, tanking becomes more lucrative since you'll have less competition for top pick odds and teams will be willing to bid more for your existing players. That's how things were for a long time. The Celtics were the worst team in the league in 1979 with a 29-53 record, admittedly in a smaller league. Last season was more competitive and they'd still have been the 7th worst team, or tied for 9th worst in 2018. In some seasons in the 2010s you have 3 teams with sub-20 wins racing to the bottom. So when the Rockets blatantly tanked in 1982-3 to get Sampson and Hakeem, they had little competition, and they were able to get another top 3 pick alongside it.
Tanking gives you decent odds of getting good assets. That's not the only option to improve your assets. If you can take advantage of unusual opportunities you can get better returns for worse assets too. The Rockets got Harden for his entire prime simply by being ready to take advantage of a rare moment that is totally unpredictable but pops up every few years. Same with the Raptors, although theirs was a little messier. The threepeat Lakers formed their team because the Magic, who had a team as stacked as the Warriors, tried to underpay Shaq, and (according to Shaq) Jerry West tempted him to a capable but clearly worse LA team with his vision. Jerry West then traded Vlade Divac for the Kobe pick. Vlade was a quality starter who was only 28, and they could've easily traded him for another good win-now player to complement Shaq or kept him as a twin towers option. Imagine how few GMs, if any, would be that farsighted nowadays. The Lakers had a worse contending team for Shaq's first 4 years than they could have, and paid for it with embarrassing losses, but then they threepeated.
There's so much pressure now to go to one extreme, tank and go allin on stockpiling assets or win now and give up the mid-term future for a couple years to contend. Of course when almost half the league is doing one of those extremes, it doesn't look nearly so attractive. Market prices in some of these recent years have been astronomical compared to the past when the league was less extreme and tanking competition is intense, leading to the league instituting worse odds. In such environments doing a more hybrid strategy can easily be more lucrative. You'll have fewer assets and you'll have to endure painful treadmill seasons, but you'll also have real shots if you allow young talents to grow alongside a strong veteran core. Or just look at the Warriors, who had some ludicrously good luck even after that initial Curry contract (KD) and also some bad injury luck. But they kept their patience either way and stayed the course.
People always praise Jerry Krause for his drafting and trading, which is kind of odd since he bombed so many times and was at best average. But his choice to blow up the Bulls roster in 86 was pivotal, alongside his coaching selections. Think about it, you have Jordan on your team, he gets injured his 2nd year and the team unwillingly tanks, there's immense pressure to start winning and take advantage of the opportunity of having Jordan, and your response is to blow up the team next year instead of hoping your talented but addled coke-head players can get it together again. Jordan on a league-worst team is still going to put you at 40 wins and prevent you from willingly tanking, but you can rebuild with all the assets gathered from trading the old team. The Bulls got the Pippen pick not because they sucked but from trading their remaining starters for assets. Then when Jordan retired, they still didn't tank but kept the culture and slowly shuffled a new roster alongside it. So it's nice and easy to slot Jordan back in when he gets bored and returns. You'd think Jordan would learn from that, but then he trades young Rip Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse...
Imagine if the Spurs had ever went for a win-now option after they lost one of their close seasons like 2004. Then they lose out on all that longevity and their success in even 2007 and from 2013-2017. The Spurs got Kawhi by trading George Hill, who was a quality starting PG, and then suffering for it while the raw Kawhi developed. But as it was they never had to blow it up, that kept Duncan loyal, and with him there they kept the culture. Meanwhile 50+ win teams every season and 5 titles. The Warriors are copying them, but who else is? Riley has his vision and that's worked out well, but it's a short list.
And then since someone brought it up, look at the 1st Cavs stint for Lebron. He comes into a terrible team with another promising 6th pick and a lower end all star in his prime, young Boozer, and garbage. The young talent (Dajuan Wagner) gets sidelined due to wanting to share the ball and had a career ending injury, management screws up with Boozer, and the team goes nowhere for a couple years while Bron develops. They sign Larry Hughes off of a good year, whereupon he coasts having gotten his contract and seems to quit caring. The Celtics had that problem and Larry Bird had to tell Cedric Maxwell he'd break Maxwell's leg if he coasted, but the Cavs didn't have a remedy and had to trade him at a low value. Instead of preparing for the future with Lebron and getting good returns on assets at strategic times, the Cavs from 2005-2010 essentially try to play win-now every year. Lebron won't commit and wants to win-now, meanwhile management has no backbone. They won't stand up to him for their own vision and instead play musical chairs with half the roster every other season. Honestly its kind of a miracle that the 2009 Cavs were still Lebron's best RS team given all this. Look at their trades, it's hilarious. In 2005(!) when Lebron is 20/21 they trade a first round pick for a win now nobody (Jiri Welsch). Meanwhile the Celtics turn that pick into Rajon Rondo. He might've helped the Cavs a bit.
In short, patience and waiting for good opportunities is rewarded, and short-term result chasing seems pretty low odds.