NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2022-23 (pt 3)

[LessEyeTest]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

[eyeatoma]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

They'll always find an excuse for Jokic.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

Umm, jokic has missed 7, luka missed 7, Gianni's has missed 10, Embiid I assume will miss 10,... I guess Tatum will be under? Like I know it's a unwritten rule and times have changed. Either make a written rule or adapt.

[maxwellcu]

Embiid has missed more than 10. 12, i think.

[scrabbarista]

Come on Ben Simmons has to be up there, his PER36 assists and rebounds are among his career bests.

I'm still laughing at this like twelve hours later.

[AleksandarN]

Embiid missed a golden opportunity to tie the Nuggets in the loss column today. I think winning against the Knicks would have pushed Embiid narrative further gaining even more momentum.

[GeorgeSears]

Jokic has now missed 8 games which is the same amount of games he missed all of last season. The 8 missed games at this stage in the season with 4 more B2Bs remaining should be a cause for concern for his MVP candidacy. I believe in NBA tradition, and if the precedent is set at 11 missed games maximum, Jokic should not be eligible to win if he misses 4 more games. I don't like the idea of changing the standards, especially when load management is involved. It should hurt the players to lose out on something like this because of load management. I don't blame Jokic for it because he's just listening to Malone.

[Statlanta]

If everyone ends with double digit absences. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave the MVP to Tatum.

[Chessboxer]

Net On/Off This Season Per 100 Possessions:

Jokic: +20.9
Tatum: +12.4
LeBron: +11.2
Embiid: +10.6
Curry: +10.5
Durant: +10.0
Doncic: +9.3
Morant: +5.6
Giannis: +5.3

Defensive Ratings:
Giannis: 107.2
Embiid: 107.5
Jokic: 109.3
Tatum: 110.2
Doncic: 111.4
Morant: 112.2
Durant: 112.5
Lebron: 113.7
Curry: 114.1

I’m sure Jokic deserves to win MVP, but this needs some nuances:

Minutes that Jokic played with starters:
KCP 1263
Gorden 1194
Murray 1052
Porter 748

Minutes that Giannis played with starters:
Allen 937
Jrue 800
Lopez 785
-
Connaughton 538
Carter 679

With 3 man lineups (highest)
Jrue + Lopez + Allen 614 - 39 games
Giannis + Lopez + Allen 612 - 40 games
—-
Jokic + Gordon + KCP 1061 - 41 games
Jokic + Murray + KCP 869 - 39 games
Jokic + Gordon + Murray 860 - 38 games
And 3 other lineups with Jokic and > 630 minutes.

Both exactly at 33.6 minutes per game. Jokic played 4 more games, so 134 more minutes.
The differences are huge, in a way you can say all stats which use ‘over replacement player’ are useless to compare these 2.
So it should come down a lot more to team record. Jokic is 1 in front.

The triple double looks sexy, but is 25-11-10 so much better than 32-12-5?
And don’t you think Giannis would have more assists if he plays more with the same and the better players? Yesterday he had 11 with Middleton at his side.

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

[Cubbies2120]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

Yep, this is Jokic's 8th missed game. He won MVP last year with 8 missed games.

Last 45 years...

MVPs with > 11 missed games: 0
MVPs with 11 missed games: 1 (Iverson in 2001)

Jokic has missed 8 games
Embiid has missed 12 games

[iggymcfrack]

Net On/Off This Season Per 100 Possessions:

Jokic: +20.9
Tatum: +12.4
LeBron: +11.2
Embiid: +10.6
Curry: +10.5
Durant: +10.0
Doncic: +9.3
Morant: +5.6
Giannis: +5.3

Defensive Ratings:
Giannis: 107.2
Embiid: 107.5
Jokic: 109.3
Tatum: 110.2
Doncic: 111.4
Morant: 112.2
Durant: 112.5
Lebron: 113.7
Curry: 114.1

I’m sure Jokic deserves to win MVP, but this needs some nuances:

Minutes that Jokic played with starters:
KCP 1263
Gorden 1194
Murray 1052
Porter 748

Minutes that Giannis played with starters:
Allen 937
Jrue 800
Lopez 785
-
Connaughton 538
Carter 679

With 3 man lineups (highest)
Jrue + Lopez + Allen 614 - 39 games
Giannis + Lopez + Allen 612 - 40 games
—-
Jokic + Gordon + KCP 1061 - 41 games
Jokic + Murray + KCP 869 - 39 games
Jokic + Gordon + Murray 860 - 38 games
And 3 other lineups with Jokic and > 630 minutes.

Both exactly at 33.6 minutes per game. Jokic played 4 more games, so 134 more minutes.
The differences are huge, in a way you can say all stats which use ‘over replacement player’ are useless to compare these 2.
So it should come down a lot more to team record. Jokic is 1 in front.

The triple double looks sexy, but is 25-11-10 so much better than 32-12-5?
And don’t you think Giannis would have more assists if he plays more with the same and the better players? Yesterday he had 11 with Middleton at his side.

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

LOL, the double teamed stats don’t mean that the D is paying more attention to Giannis than Jokic. It just means that you can’t afford to double team Jokic because he’s such an amazing passer. He’s a maestro that makes everyone on the team better and gets the best shot for the offense regardless of whether it’s for him to something else. Also, LOL @ “tougher conference” as an argument in favor of Giannis. Just looked up strength of schedule. The Nuggets rank 27th and the Bucks rank 28th.

Also, you bring up the Bucks record as an argument in their favor, but when Giannis plays they’re 30-12 compared to 34-12 for Jokic. When Giannis is on the floor, the Bucks outscore the opposition by 5.2 points per 100 possessions. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets outscore the opposition by 12.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks with Giannis on the floor are closer to being a lottery team than they are to being as good as the Nuggets with Jokic.

Box score composites tend to underrate elite passers, but this is what we have this season:

Jokic: 32.0 PER on .704 TS%, .321 WS/48, 13.2 BPM
Giannis: 28.5 PER on .596 TS%, .196 WS/48, 7.9 BPM

Jokic ranks 1st, 1st, and 1st in those categories, and he ranks 2nd, 7th, and 3rd all-time. Giannis ranks 5th, 18th, and 5th for the season. In every composite, Jokic ranks higher among every player who’s ever played basketball than Giannis does just among players this season. Then on top of all that, Jokic has played 136 more minutes too.

There’s no argument for Giannis this season as MVP. None. He’s having a run of the mill top 5 year, actually a down year by his standards. Jokic is literally having one of the greatest seasons in the history of basketball. Voting Giannis over Jokic this year would be like voting Magic over Michael in ‘91. Yeah, he’s a great player having a good year, but it doesn’t remotely compare to someone who’s actually stretching the game to new limits.

[iggymcfrack]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

Yep, this is Jokic's 8th missed game. He won MVP last year with 8 missed games.

Last 45 years...

MVPs with > 11 missed games: 0
MVPs with 11 missed games: 1 (Iverson in 2001)

Jokic has missed 8 games
Embiid has missed 12 games

People miss more games than they used to. Here are the favorites by the betting line to win the award in order:

Jokic- 46 GP
Embiid- 39 GP
Doncic- 47 GP
Giannis- 42 GP
Tatum- 50 GP
Morant- 44 GP
Durant- 39 GP
Curry- 38 GP
Mitchell- 44 GP

That’s every player with reasonable odds to win the award. After Mitchell at 45/1, it jumps to a bunch of players at 150/1. So of the 9 players who could conceivably possibly have any chance of winning the MVP, Jokic has the 3rd most games played with only Tatum playing significantly more. Also, the fact that the Nuggets are the 1 seed in the West is likely to make people extra forgiving. This is a total non-issue desperately trying to find some reason to take away the inevitability of Jokic winning the award.

[Infinite Llamas]

Net On/Off This Season Per 100 Possessions:

Jokic: +20.9
Tatum: +12.4
LeBron: +11.2
Embiid: +10.6
Curry: +10.5
Durant: +10.0
Doncic: +9.3
Morant: +5.6
Giannis: +5.3

Defensive Ratings:
Giannis: 107.2
Embiid: 107.5
Jokic: 109.3
Tatum: 110.2
Doncic: 111.4
Morant: 112.2
Durant: 112.5
Lebron: 113.7
Curry: 114.1

I’m sure Jokic deserves to win MVP, but this needs some nuances:

Minutes that Jokic played with starters:
KCP 1263
Gorden 1194
Murray 1052
Porter 748

Minutes that Giannis played with starters:
Allen 937
Jrue 800
Lopez 785
-
Connaughton 538
Carter 679

With 3 man lineups (highest)
Jrue + Lopez + Allen 614 - 39 games
Giannis + Lopez + Allen 612 - 40 games
—-
Jokic + Gordon + KCP 1061 - 41 games
Jokic + Murray + KCP 869 - 39 games
Jokic + Gordon + Murray 860 - 38 games
And 3 other lineups with Jokic and > 630 minutes.

Both exactly at 33.6 minutes per game. Jokic played 4 more games, so 134 more minutes.
The differences are huge, in a way you can say all stats which use ‘over replacement player’ are useless to compare these 2.
So it should come down a lot more to team record. Jokic is 1 in front.

The triple double looks sexy, but is 25-11-10 so much better than 32-12-5?
And don’t you think Giannis would have more assists if he plays more with the same and the better players? Yesterday he had 11 with Middleton at his side.

That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Teams have realized that double teaming Jokic is the single dumbest thing they could possibly do. That’s why it rarely happens. Their only hope is single coverage and hope he plays more passively than aggressively. I would argue he’s one of the hardest players in the league to game plan for. You have to account for him and all of the moving pieces around him. He generates so many wide open 3’s and dunks because even if they do play him for the pass, Jokic is so lethal at finding that second or third option when it opens up.

You can slow down a player like Giannis with the right personnel. Trust me, as a Celtics fan I’ve seen this. Throw guys like Smart, Horford, Grant Williams at him and it makes his game a lot more difficult. There is no personnel that can slow down Jokic, and I don’t want to hear about how PJ Tucker played him for 18 minutes. There isn’t a defender on the league Jokic hasn’t figured out yet.

And Giannis isn’t a more dominant rebounder than Jokic. It tells me that he has one of the best box out guys with Brook Lopez.

[RB34]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

Yep, this is Jokic's 8th missed game. He won MVP last year with 8 missed games.

Last 45 years...

MVPs with > 11 missed games: 0
MVPs with 11 missed games: 1 (Iverson in 2001)

Jokic has missed 8 games
Embiid has missed 12 games

Should we just remove Embiid from the poll then?

[_NoMas]

If Tatum stays healthy and plays the games at the level he has been, he should win by default. Availability is and always has been a key factor in deciding the MVP

[Exp0sed]

If Tatum stays healthy and plays the games at the level he has been, he should win by default. Availability is and always has been a key factor in deciding the MVP

gonna be interesting as literally all the viable candidates except maybe Tatum might miss 10+ games

personally I wouldn't mind sticking to tradition and giving Tatum an MVP "by default" but it will be weird as hell and I bet the voting is gonna be all over the place,with voters using very different "weights"

The Nuggets guys rested yesterday because it allowed them to not even join the team but stay in Denver instead
the remaining Nuggets back to back games are all in the same conference so less chance of that happening, but with Memphis fixing to implode, the Nuggets might have the West locked a couple of games before season's end and then they will obviously rest their starters, I mean coaches and trainers will be fired if a starter misses the playoffs because of an injury (or suspension) in a game that has no bearing on the standings

Despite sitting out those extra games, Tatum has 35 "invdividual wins" while Jokic has 34

if those two numbers are that close at the end, gonna be hard for voters to give it to Tatum with the extra help and the significant gap in production in favor of the Joker

Giannis has 30, so he has some cathing up to do, Embiid has 26 (just for reference)

like I said, I wouldn't mind at all if the voters will give Tatum the MVP under such conditions but it'd be weird af
probably would be weird for Tatum as well, winning an MVP when he wasn't even the 3rd best player this season

but I guess he'll take it

Joker wouldn't mind either way, that's for sure

[antonac]

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

Come on now, can you think of a reason that Jokic, someone who's now discussed in same breath as the best passers ever, doesn't get the same defensive attention as Giannis?

If you double team Jokic what do you think is going to happen?

As for the availability thing, I always think this is over complicated to the point of absurdity. Just look at the totals. The reason embiid's availability has hurt him in the past is that his main flex is his scoring, and he's rarely even in the top 5 of scoring totals. Last year people constantly went on about his scoring over Jokic when Jokic had more points than him*. This year Doncic has scorned almost 300 more points.

*edit, just in case this becomes a point of tedious contention, it was actually 20-21 Jokic had more points, Embiid scored 75 more in 21-22

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Jokic out again today. The games played part is not going to be a factor this year.

It should and will. If Jokic misses 11 or more games, he should no longer be in contention. We can't break a tradition just to make fans of two (very vocal) fanbases happy.

let's see how many candidates will have player 80 games or more

[Ryoga Hibiki]

If Tatum stays healthy and plays the games at the level he has been, he should win by default. Availability is and always has been a key factor in deciding the MVP

it's not going to be a hard cut, the same way there was no arbitrary number last year for the Nuggets seeding or number of wins, it's much more fluid than that.
how many more games will Tatum have played more than the other candidates? If it will end up being just 4/5 more it will be irrelevant, if 10+ it might bridge the difference in personal impact.
Moreover, what to do if, say, Tatum player like 10 more games than Jokic while having the same number of wins?

[greekbuck34]

Spoiler:

I’m sure Jokic deserves to win MVP, but this needs some nuances:

Minutes that Jokic played with starters:
KCP 1263
Gorden 1194
Murray 1052
Porter 748

Minutes that Giannis played with starters:
Allen 937
Jrue 800
Lopez 785
-
Connaughton 538
Carter 679

With 3 man lineups (highest)
Jrue + Lopez + Allen 614 - 39 games
Giannis + Lopez + Allen 612 - 40 games
—-
Jokic + Gordon + KCP 1061 - 41 games
Jokic + Murray + KCP 869 - 39 games
Jokic + Gordon + Murray 860 - 38 games
And 3 other lineups with Jokic and > 630 minutes.

Both exactly at 33.6 minutes per game. Jokic played 4 more games, so 134 more minutes.
The differences are huge, in a way you can say all stats which use ‘over replacement player’ are useless to compare these 2.
So it should come down a lot more to team record. Jokic is 1 in front.

The triple double looks sexy, but is 25-11-10 so much better than 32-12-5?
And don’t you think Giannis would have more assists if he plays more with the same and the better players? Yesterday he had 11 with Middleton at his side.

[spoiler]That's due to the obsession with the triple double in this era. Is it impressive? Absolutely. However its' much more commonplace that it used to be. Westbrook won an MVP averaging a triple double, and has done so many times since.Also, the unfortunate part of that if a player like Giannis exhibits dominance in 1 or 2 statistical categories (he averages more points/rebounds than Jokic), its' not regarded as impressive.

Giannis is averaging >30ppg and leading the league in rebounding(tied with Sabonis). If he manages to do that, when was the last time a player accomplished that? Someone correct me if I'm wrong of course, however when I looked back, the last player to do that was Wilt. Also his 32/12/5 hasn't been done since 1966. However, because its not double digits in 3 statistical categories it doesn't get mentioned.

Obviously Jokic has excellent efficiency, but that must also be taken into context considering he doesn't face nearly the same defensive attention that Giannis does, as Giannis is the 2nd most double teamed player in the league(Doncic #1). Jokic isn't even in the top 20. So despite Giannis facing more defensive attention, playing in a tougher conference, and with his second option out most of the year, the Bucks are within 1 game or so of the best record in the league. Its for those reason I take issue that Jokic somehow "deserves" the MVP.

LOL, the double teamed stats don’t mean that the D is paying more attention to Giannis than Jokic. It just means that you can’t afford to double team Jokic because he’s such an amazing passer. He’s a maestro that makes everyone on the team better and gets the best shot for the offense regardless of whether it’s for him to something else. Also, LOL @ “tougher conference” as an argument in favor of Giannis. Just looked up strength of schedule. The Nuggets rank 27th and the Bucks rank 28th.

Also, you bring up the Bucks record as an argument in their favor, but when Giannis plays they’re 30-12 compared to 34-12 for Jokic. When Giannis is on the floor, the Bucks outscore the opposition by 5.2 points per 100 possessions. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets outscore the opposition by 12.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks with Giannis on the floor are closer to being a lottery team than they are to being as good as the Nuggets with Jokic.

Box score composites tend to underrate elite passers, but this is what we have this season:

Jokic: 32.0 PER on .704 TS%, .321 WS/48, 13.2 BPM
Giannis: 28.5 PER on .596 TS%, .196 WS/48, 7.9 BPM

Jokic ranks 1st, 1st, and 1st in those categories, and he ranks 2nd, 7th, and 3rd all-time. Giannis ranks 5th, 18th, and 5th for the season. In every composite, Jokic ranks higher among every player who’s ever played basketball than Giannis does just among players this season. Then on top of all that, Jokic has played 136 more minutes too.

There’s no argument for Giannis this season as MVP. None. He’s having a run of the mill top 5 year, actually a down year by his standards. Jokic is literally having one of the greatest seasons in the history of basketball. Voting Giannis over Jokic this year would be like voting Magic over Michael in ‘91. Yeah, he’s a great player having a good year, but it doesn’t remotely compare to someone who’s actually stretching the game to new limits.

The **** has the same record with Jokic with his second best player out for almost the entire season so far and with both him and Jrue picking up minor injuries on the way due to immense burden on offense and you say that he has no argument for MVP because he only has 60% TS on 32-12-5 with defense.