Exp0sed wrote:Sixerscan wrote:Cubbies2120 wrote:
I have a hard time believing anyone with league pass actually thinks Jokic is one of the best defensive players on the sport. Part of making and valuing a good stat is a good smell test.
that's not what his DBPM tells us
it does not tell us he is "one of the best defensive players on the sport"
it tells us his team is conceding dramatically less points when he's on the court, at least in the rs - there's a difference!
that could be (and is) the cummlative effect of many things discussed ad nauseum itt:
you can play great defense but fail to box out \ rebound - resulting in the opponent gaining an exra possesion
so, i would imagine being one of the premier defensive rebounder in the league can help in that regard, right?
how about leading all centers in steals and defelections year after year? does that help?
Jokic probbaly has more kickballs a season than some team rosters have combined
might not seem like much, but it all adds up. offenses with 14 seconds on the clock score less than offenses with the full 24
offensive possession starting after a made basket are much less efficient than those that start after a miss and\or a turnover
Jokic "makes" a lot of basketsfor himself and his teammates - it all adds up
there are a 100 indirect some such ways, in which the Nuggets concede less point because of the Joker - and the data shows that clearly year after year
I think it's time to accept that it's just the way it is and stop conflating "defensive impact" with "best defeneder"
the two are usually pretty highly correlated but not in Jokic's case (and no1 is claiming otherwise)
being that good offensively also has immense defensive value, it's no that hard to fathom imo :p
btw Jokic is also calling out opponents plays and directing traffic (correctly) when he's engaged defensively - he can use his vision on that end, to anticipate certin plays and send a teammave over to the right spot - all those things are encapuslated in these advanced stats, it's real it's not coming out of thin air![]()
Jokic is also elite as mentioned at some "typical" defensive aspects
not just rebounding or deflections, he is also a very good post defender and very good at denying his opponent from getting position in the post etc.
yes, he's severely lacking in a few specific (and important) aspects of defense (duh)
in the rs it doesn't matter, teams aren't trying hard to exploit that and MVP is rs season award
if teams will be able to exploit it in the playoffs it will be reflected in those same numbers you guys are brushing away
how were these same defensive impact metrics for the GS series last year?
they were bad..confirming the eye test
then how come they come out very different in the regular season? be honest and answer that Q to urselves
if that same story repeats itself this post-season, it will surely hurt his "legacy" and overall stock \ atg ranking but it has no bearing on the MVP race!
teams are NOT exploiting him in the rs, maybe it's by choice (fair enough and a valid argument against him) but by choice or not - the end result is Jokic dominating in the rs, consistely, durably and is doing more with his PT to help his teammates win games when he's on the floor than any other competitor - in my world when you couple that type of producion and a high seed - you got urself an MVP
I understand what DBPM tries to do. I also know that, as shown in that tweet on the last page, b-r’s glossary on it literally allows that it overvalues guys that get steals and defensive rebounds because there are not very many box score defensive stats, to take it “with a giant grain of salt” and discount it if a guy’s reputation is obviously different from what the numbers show. So let’s do that.