NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[_NoMas]

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?s=46

Woj driving the Kawhi MVP train

Again not surprising because since Embiid got hurt Jokic winning the MVP again is the most boring storyline for the media so its more them hoping that either Kawhi or SGA continue to make it interesting and that's by their teams finishing better than Denver in the standings. And if somehow their teams start to falter don't be surprised if they reintroduce Tatum again because they'll cite the "best player on league's best team" argument. The only time the talking heads would be willing to universally agree that Jokic should win a 3rd MVP is if he wins the title again this year because then going into next year that would end any discussion that he's the best player in the league.

I will sing this everyday till the cows come home. Only 8 guys have won 3 MVPs. Look at the list and ask yourself do you really think they want to add Joker to that list. Plus he's not even 30

Joker as good as he is lucked out in unsual circumstances w/ the 1st mvp and if he does win this one 3rd mvp due to Embiids injuries. It really should be tied 2-2 embiid and jokic.

Whatever you say ‘chokic’

[QPR]

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?s=46

Woj driving the Kawhi MVP train

Again not surprising because since Embiid got hurt Jokic winning the MVP again is the most boring storyline for the media so its more them hoping that either Kawhi or SGA continue to make it interesting and that's by their teams finishing better than Denver in the standings. And if somehow their teams start to falter don't be surprised if they reintroduce Tatum again because they'll cite the "best player on league's best team" argument. The only time the talking heads would be willing to universally agree that Jokic should win a 3rd MVP is if he wins the title again this year because then going into next year that would end any discussion that he's the best player in the league.

I will sing this everyday till the cows come home. Only 8 guys have won 3 MVPs. Look at the list and ask yourself do you really think they want to add Joker to that list. Plus he's not even 30

Joker as good as he is lucked out in unsual circumstances w/ the 1st mvp and if he does win this one 3rd mvp due to Embiids injuries. It really should be tied 2-2 embiid and jokic.

If we're assessing the validity of MVPs then it's still 3-1 because Jokic should have won last season.

[Blacksheep25]

If those are the odds, that's a hell of a bet. He doesn't have a great chance, given the absurd stats of Jokic..and also Giannis and SGA, but they could end up with the best record which would give him a better chance.

Regardless, I think both of those odds are way out of whack for the seasons and impact they have had.

Full board. I looked at them yesterday and screwed up as far as Luka and Giannis. They’re 8/1 and 10/1

I don’t follow MVP talk that close. You think 50/1 on Kawhi worth a sweat?


Jokić, Nikola
-159

Gilgeous-Alexander, Shai
+200

Antetokounmpo, Giannis
+800

Dončić, Luka
+1000

Leonard, Kawhi
+5000

Brunson, Jalen
+6000

Tatum, Jayson
+8000

Booker, Devin
+25000

Mitchell, Donovan
+25000

Durant, Kevin
+25000

Haliburton, Tyrese
+50000

Edwards, Anthony
+50000

Sabonis, Domantas
+50000

Fox, De'Aaron
+50000

Curry, Stephen
+50000

Davis, Anthony
+50000

James, LeBron
+50000

Worth a sweat? Maybe if you put $100 but the payout would be $5K. Even just $10 is a $500 payout. That's definitely worth a shot. The others don't have much of a payout..the high ones and it's risky with such a small payout because they are going against the field.

And with Jokic, you have to bet $159 just to get paid $100.

If the Clips somehow end up 3 or 4 games ahead of anyone else, Kawhi may have a reasonable shot. The defense cannot be understated. Plus, he may not have the rebounds or assists of others, but he is solid there and doesn't need it as much given the team he is on. Is Shai that much more deserving if the Clips end up 5 games ahead of them?

Oh I understand the odds far too well. I just generally stick to props and totals as you have quantifiable information with those. That just happens to be the book that hasn’t collared me lately, which is a problem with props.

Locking up money for months on a popularity contest that defies logic, like last year when Jokic was clearly the best player over the course of the year, doesn’t generally appeal to me. I kind of like your point about the narrative and Kawhi. It’s very possible it’s the only time going forward he may be eligible also. My guess is he’s underpriced because a lot of writers who vote really don’t like him. Based on play and impact, I agree he’s been very good. I guess I was just curious if they’ll reward him for doing what they had a problem with, and playing. Or if they’ll hold a grudge. That’s what I was asking about more. Just the general chatter and if it’s been pro or con.

[Chokic]

Again not surprising because since Embiid got hurt Jokic winning the MVP again is the most boring storyline for the media so its more them hoping that either Kawhi or SGA continue to make it interesting and that's by their teams finishing better than Denver in the standings. And if somehow their teams start to falter don't be surprised if they reintroduce Tatum again because they'll cite the "best player on league's best team" argument. The only time the talking heads would be willing to universally agree that Jokic should win a 3rd MVP is if he wins the title again this year because then going into next year that would end any discussion that he's the best player in the league.

I will sing this everyday till the cows come home. Only 8 guys have won 3 MVPs. Look at the list and ask yourself do you really think they want to add Joker to that list. Plus he's not even 30

Joker as good as he is lucked out in unsual circumstances w/ the 1st mvp and if he does win this one 3rd mvp due to Embiids injuries. It really should be tied 2-2 embiid and jokic.

If we're assessing the validity of MVPs then it's still 3-1 because Jokic should have won last season.

Embiid was on his way to win the 1st mvp jokic won but they gave it to jokic almost by default bc everyone was hurt. Embiid was on his way to win 2nd mvp this season before the knee injury. He was playing on a different level than everybody else and what's crazy is 2nd 3rd and even 4th place mvo candidates would win mvp in other seasons. Embiid was robbed of mvp in 2022. He was leading the mvp race for majority of that season had the narrative on his side the better team record his level of play didnt drop off at the end yet somehow jokic miraculously caught him and surpassed him? Was jokic deserving last season yes but last year's mvp made up for the previous seasons blunder.

[AleksandarN]

Joker as good as he is lucked out in unsual circumstances w/ the 1st mvp and if he does win this one 3rd mvp due to Embiids injuries. It really should be tied 2-2 embiid and jokic.

If we're assessing the validity of MVPs then it's still 3-1 because Jokic should have won last season.

Embiid was on his way to win the 1st mvp jokic won but they gave it to jokic almost by default bc everyone was hurt. Embiid was on his way to win 2nd mvp this season before the knee injury. He was playing on a different level than everybody else and what's crazy is 2nd 3rd and even 4th place mvo candidates would win mvp in other seasons. Embiid was robbed of mvp in 2022. He was leading the mvp race for majority of that season had the narrative on his side the better team record his level of play didnt drop off at the end yet somehow jokic miraculously caught him and surpassed him? Was jokic deserving last season yes but last year's mvp made up for the previous seasons blunder.

No he wasn't Jokic had the better season and the better numbers and contributed to more wins. Why you keep saying that. I already debunked your reasonings before. Yet here we are again

[losmi]

Joker as good as he is lucked out in unsual circumstances w/ the 1st mvp and if he does win this one 3rd mvp due to Embiids injuries. It really should be tied 2-2 embiid and jokic.

If we're assessing the validity of MVPs then it's still 3-1 because Jokic should have won last season.

Embiid was on his way to win the 1st mvp jokic won but they gave it to jokic almost by default bc everyone was hurt. Embiid was on his way to win 2nd mvp this season before the knee injury. He was playing on a different level than everybody else and what's crazy is 2nd 3rd and even 4th place mvo candidates would win mvp in other seasons. Embiid was robbed of mvp in 2022. He was leading the mvp race for majority of that season had the narrative on his side the better team record his level of play didnt drop off at the end yet somehow jokic miraculously caught him and surpassed him? Was jokic deserving last season yes but last year's mvp made up for the previous seasons blunder.

Embiid did not deserve MVP in either of those years. Not 2021, not 2022, not 2023, not 2024, not even one for all those seasons combined. The right number of MVPs that would best represent his overall success as a basketball player in those four seasons is one big zero.

Now let's move on, there are some real basketball players competing for the award this season.

[bwgood77]

At this point, I don't think Kawhi has a chance. Personally, at this point, I'd definitely have him top 3 though, and I would have to think long and hard about the order. (Embiid only not in it due to injury).

Kawhi is hands down the best defender. Giannis is great as is Shai. The splits are huge to me...I don't know anyone has shot like that who has been as good as defender as him, and he's always been clutch. I would without a doubt take him over anyone in the NBA in the playoffs, since he is one of a very few who raises their level of play in the playoffs. Though I know that is not relevant in MVP discussions (though maybe it should be).

I would probably have Jokic slightly ahead of Kawhi and Kawhi slightly ahead of SGA with Giannis in 4th.

I think everyone is pretty far behind Shai & Jokic right now, but Kawhi is the guy who seems to have the best chance to jump into the top tier based on how the season is going for his team.

I do think there will be a pull to reward Kawhi with an MVP to match his stature, but I will also say that I think that pull will disappear in a debate with Jokic because Jokic is responsible for that humiliating upset of the Clippers in '19-20 where they were pre-season favorites and massive favorites in that playoff series.

On the other hand, if it ends up between Shai & Kawhi, I could see voters being quicker to side with Kawhi by a principle similar to Kobe v Paul in 2008 - the whole "X should get an MVP and this might be his last chance, and Y is young anyway". Can't help but note that this now forever plays a role in why Chris Paul isn't an NBA MVP, because he never had a season as good again, but still, I think people still tend to think in these terms.

If people were voting with some sort of agenda and trying to reward for past performance, I think that's BS. I think they are pretty equal in about all areas except 3 pt shooting, where Kawhi is on fire, and then as for defense, Shai is great, but Kawhi can guard a bigger range of players and cover more ground quickly to disrupt another player he isn't guarding with his wingspan. But they are very very close to me. I think if the Clips finish with a better record, it's a toss up, and if it's 3-4 games better, it's him. But Jokic is putting up such unbelievable #s, but then again, Kawhi has him on 3pt shooting and defense, so I think there is an argument in my opinion. Of course Jokic kills him in assists and boards, so he does everything offensively.,,,not that Kawhi can't do that. I think he could average like 7-8 ast per game and 10 boards if you had the offense running through him and him crashing the boards was necessary.

[Crunch 99]

Spoiler:

Jokić, Nikola
-159

Gilgeous-Alexander, Shai
+200

Antetokounmpo, Giannis
+800

Dončić, Luka
+1000

Leonard, Kawhi
+5000

Brunson, Jalen
+6000

Tatum, Jayson
+8000

Booker, Devin
+25000

Mitchell, Donovan
+25000

Durant, Kevin
+25000

Haliburton, Tyrese
+50000

Edwards, Anthony
+50000

Sabonis, Domantas
+50000

Fox, De'Aaron
+50000

Curry, Stephen
+50000

Davis, Anthony
+50000

James, LeBron
+50000

I agree Jokic, Shai and Giannis are the leaders by performance. I think Shai might eventually get a boost for reason of some voters' reluctancy to give Jokic or Giannis a third MVP.

Mitchell and Brunson aren't in the same tier as those above, but giving Brunson 4x better odds than Mitchell isn't justified by performance. Mitchell's overall play and recent run has been every bit as impressive as Brunson's overall play and recent run. Mitchell recently led the Cavs to 12-3 wins, that's 80% wins, playing without Garland and Mobley.* That is missing the Cavs' second and third leading scorers, missing the Cavs' best playmaker and missing the Cavs' best defender.

*Mobley played 20.9 mins in one game.

Mitchell is roughly even to small edge on Brunson on their Stathead comparison:
https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=forall&year_min=2024&year_max=2024&player_id1=mitchdo01&player_id2=brunsja01

[dygaction]

Jokić, Nikola
-159

Gilgeous-Alexander, Shai
+200

Antetokounmpo, Giannis
+800

Dončić, Luka
+1000

Leonard, Kawhi
+5000

Brunson, Jalen
+6000

Tatum, Jayson
+8000

Booker, Devin
+25000

Mitchell, Donovan
+25000

Durant, Kevin
+25000

Haliburton, Tyrese
+50000

Edwards, Anthony
+50000

Sabonis, Domantas
+50000

Fox, De'Aaron
+50000

Curry, Stephen
+50000

Davis, Anthony
+50000

James, LeBron
+50000

I agree Jokic, Shai and Giannis are the leaders by performance. I think Shai might eventually get a boost for reason of some voters' reluctancy to give Jokic or Giannis a third MVP.

Mitchell and Brunson aren't in the same tier as those above, but giving Brunson 4x better odds than Mitchell isn't justified by performance. Mitchell's overall play and recent run has been every bit as impressive as Brunson's overall play and recent run. Mitchell recently led the Cavs to 12-3 wins, that's 80% wins, playing without Garland and Mobley.* That is missing the Cavs' second and third leading scorers, missing the Cavs' best playmaker and missing the Cavs' best defender.

*Mobley played 20.9 mins in one game.

Mitchell is roughly even or a small edge over Brunson on their Stathead comparison:
https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=forall&year_min=2024&year_max=2024&player_id1=mitchdo01&player_id2=brunsja01

Brunson played in 49 games with 32w-17l
Mitchell played in 40 games with 27w-13l
You cannot credit that extra 6w-3l Cavs did without Mitchell on him. They could have been closer to play-in if the team did not play extremely well when he was unavailable.

[B-easy]

Brunson played in 49 games with 32w-17l
Mitchell played in 40 games with 27w-13l
You cannot credit that extra 6w-3l Cavs did without Mitchell on him. They could have been closer to play-in if the team did not play extremely well when he was unavailable.

Yes. This is the same mistake voters made last season when comparing Jokic and Embiid.

[dygaction]

Brunson played in 49 games with 32w-17l
Mitchell played in 40 games with 27w-13l
You cannot credit that extra 6w-3l Cavs did without Mitchell on him. They could have been closer to play-in if the team did not play extremely well when he was unavailable.

Yes. This is the same mistake voters made last season when comparing Jokic and Embiid.

By the same logic, Doc with his own 1w-5l should be ashamed of coaching all star.

[Wolfgang630]

I definitely don’t want to hear no Giannis in a top 2 for mvp.

[Crunch 99]

Brunson played in 49 games with 32w-17l
Mitchell played in 40 games with 27w-13l
You cannot credit that extra 6w-3l Cavs did without Mitchell on him. They could have been closer to play-in if the team did not play extremely well when he was unavailable.

Huh? I am not giving Mitchell credit for games he didn't play.

Mitchell has been playing at least as well, arguably better, than Brunson in the games he played, so it isn't warranted by the numbers to be giving Brunson 4x better MVP odds. Brunson should be given some credit for playing more games, but at this juncture, Mitchell is playing and Brunson isn't, so the games-played disparity is shrinking, 49 to 41. Mitchell has an edge over Brunson on most overall measures of basketball impact: NETRTNG, BPM, EPM, PER and PIE for example.

PPG: Mitchell 28.5, Brunson 27.2
TS%: Mitchell 60.3, Brunson 60.7
EPM: Mitchell +6.4, Brunson +4.7
EW: Mitchell 8.8, Brunson 9.0
BPM: Mitchell +7.5, Brunson +4.9
NETRTG:Mitch +11.2, Brunson +7.4
PER: Mitchell: 23.8, Brunson 22.0
PIE: Mitchell 16.6, Brunson 14.6
Win%: Mitch 68.3%, Brunson 65.3%
GP: Mitchell 41, Brunson 49
Ast: Mitchell 6.3, Brunson 6.5
Rebs: Mitch 5.5, Brunson 3.9
Stls: Mitch 1.9, Brunson 0.9
Tovs: Mitch 2.8, Brunson 2.3

[Jurassic_Park]

Its a 2 man race as has been for a while. Jokic and SGA. No one else will win the award.

[whatever_]

PTS - 34.6 - 1st
REB - 8.8 - 18th
AST - 9.5 - 3rd

I find it a bit ludicrous that a guy the these numbers is not mentioned when talking about the MVP, while Kawhi Leonard is
Sure, the Mavs don't have the best record, but let's not act like they're tanking or something.

Mavs 29-23
OKC 35-16
Clippers 34-16
Bucks 33-19
Nuggets 36-16

Is that such a huge discrepancy as to completely disregard the Mavs player?

[dygaction]

I agree Jokic, Shai and Giannis are the leaders by performance. I think Shai might eventually get a boost to win for reason of some voters' reluctancy to give Jokic or Giannis a third MVP.

Mitchell and Brunson aren't in the same tier as those above, but giving Brunson 4x better odds than Mitchell isn't justified by performance. Mitchell's overall play and recent run has been every bit as impressive as Brunson's overall play and recent run. Mitchell recently led the Cavs to 12-3 wins, that's 80% wins, playing without Garland and Mobley.* That is missing the Cavs' second and third leading scorers, missing the Cavs' best playmaker and missing the Cavs' best defender.

*Mobley played 20.9 mins in one game.

Mitchell is roughly even or a small edge over Brunson on their Stathead comparison:
https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=forall&year_min=2024&year_max=2024&player_id1=mitchdo01&player_id2=brunsja01

Brunson played in 49 games with 32w-17l
Mitchell played in 40 games with 27w-13l
You cannot credit that extra 6w-3l Cavs did without Mitchell on him. They could have been closer to play-in if the team did not play extremely well when he was unavailable.

Huh? I am not giving Mitchell credit for games he didn't play.

Mitchell has been playing at least as well, arguably better, than Brunson in the games he played, so it isn't warranted by the numbers to be giving Brunson 4x better MVP odds. Brunson should be given some credit for playing more games, but at this juncture, Mitchell is playing and Brunson isn't, so the games-played disparity is shrinking, 49 to 41. Mitchell has a real edge on overall measures of basketball impact: NETRTNG, BPM, EPM and PIE for example.

PPG: Mitchell 28.5, Brunson 27.2
TS%: Mitchell 60.3, Brunson 60.7
EPM: Mitchell +6.4, Brunson +4.7
EW: Mitchell 8.8, Brunson 9.0
BPM: Mitchell +7.5, Brunson +4.9
NETRTG:Mitch +11.2, Brunson +7.4
PIE: Mitchell 16.6, Brunson 14.6
Win%: Mitch 68.3%, Brunson 65.3%
GP: Mitchell 41, Brunson 49
Ast: Mitchell 6.3, Brunson 6.5
Rebs: Mitch 5.5, Brunson 3.9
Stls: Mitch 1.9, Brunson 0.9
Tovs: Mitch 2.8, Brunson 2.3

The "4x" odds is fools gold, it just means his chance is higher due to more games played. It is like I buy 4x lottery tickets and you buy 1. I have 4x chance theoretically but not really. Is SGA 3x better than Giannis?

[CD_41]

PTS - 34.6 - 1st
REB - 8.8 - 18th
AST - 9.5 - 3rd

I find it a bit ludicrous that a guy the these numbers is not mentioned when talking about the MVP, while Kawhi Leonard is
Sure, the Mavs don't have the best record, but let's not act like they're tanking or something.

Mavs 29-23
OKC 35-16
Clippers 34-16
Bucks 33-19
Nuggets 36-16

Is that such a huge discrepancy as to completely disregard the Mavs player?

According to the betting sites, Luka is still ahead of Kawhi.
Kawhi got a lot more attention in the last weeks, so it could seem that he is 10 places ahead of Luka.
In reality they are really close in terms of the MVP race.

[Exp0sed]

PTS - 34.6 - 1st
REB - 8.8 - 18th
AST - 9.5 - 3rd

I find it a bit ludicrous that a guy the these numbers is not mentioned when talking about the MVP, while Kawhi Leonard is
Sure, the Mavs don't have the best record, but let's not act like they're tanking or something.

Mavs 29-23
OKC 35-16
Clippers 34-16
Bucks 33-19
Nuggets 36-16

Is that such a huge discrepancy as to completely disregard the Mavs player?

the only MVP's we saw in the last decades given to lower seeds were basically WB averaging a triple double (a bad selection) and Jokic carrying the Nuggets by himself (without Murray or MPJ) with Campazzo and Barton to the 5th-6th seed
in that season all the other viable candidate played less and had less invdidual wins than Jokic. meaning, Giannis and Embiid both had worse individual seasons and while their teams had better records, those records were in part obtained without them. the Nuggets with Jokic playing had more wins than both the 76ers and the Bucks when their respective stars played

had Giannis or Embiid played say, 5 more games - Jokic wouldn't have gotten it

Luka is unfortunate that Kyrie missed alot of games, he had to carry the Mavs a-la 2021 Jokic for half a season
had Ky been available, maybe the Mavs have liike 32 wins, a game or two away from the main Western pack and the discussion would be different

with that said, Luka himself has played 44 games to Jokic's and Shai's 50 games played and his usage (in part because of the game Ky missed) is leading the league. his splits are worse than all three (and KL),34 pts and 9.5 assists is super, but it's less impressive with a 40% usage rate and lower efficiency it is what it is.

no1 is ignoring Luka, he's def top 5 (at the least) but with Shai and Jokic playing just as well (if not better), while playing more and having better team records and invdividual wins - there is simply no real argument for Luka over them

it's def valid to argue he's got less help than Jokic. Giannis or Shai (especially with Ky missing half the games and Mavs forced to play some bad players) but that's not how the MVP award works. btw, Murray missed almost as many as Kyrie and Dame\Middelton has missed a bunch as well, Middelton was never right this season

fwiw, now he's got Ky back, an upgrade in PJ Washington and an NBA quality C in Gafford - he should def be able to make a push in the standings and that would get him more MVP consideration

[zzzyyxyyxzzz]

PTS - 34.6 - 1st
REB - 8.8 - 18th
AST - 9.5 - 3rd

STL - 1.5 - 8th

[Special_Puppy]

OK now I buy that Luka is a MVP candidate