2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[nikster]

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There isn’t that much that jumps out at me. He’s gonna be getting easy buckets in off lobs, and put backs. And he can hit a face up jumper. He has limited handles and his post game his limited (he had like 2 post moves that game that were simple hooks). Doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to being a player where you can just give him the ball and go to work. And if he can’t get there offensively he won’t have an all star level impact with mediocre D.

That said, he is already extremely effective in his current role, is a great offensive rebounders, and centres tend to take long to develop offensively.

Man. If can look at that and see nothing special, then I really have to wonder what you are watching.

Nothing special is a bit harash. He’s obviously going to have a long NBA career and is a talented and physically gifted player. But don’t see indication of a franchise carrying offense in his future

[nikster]

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There isn’t that much that jumps out at me. He’s gonna be getting easy buckets in off lobs, and put backs. And he can hit a face up jumper. He has limited handles and his post game his limited (he had like 2 post moves that game that were simple hooks). Doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to being a player where you can just give him the ball and go to work. And if he can’t get there offensively he won’t have an all star level impact with mediocre D.

That said, he is already extremely effective in his current role, is a great offensive rebounders, and centres tend to take long to develop offensively.

He's also a good passer for a C. Inside/outside game, should not be that hard to build around such player.

He’s a solid passer but he’s going to need to get the ball more to show he has ability as a true playmaker. But he has shown at least he is a willing passer and is able to make smart and simple passes a which is a must have for a center

[Sunsfan76]

Ayton right now looks exactly what i thought he would before the draft. On offense he is Howard with a jumpshot. Which is already amazing to watch, his athleticism and how easily he can finish around the rim. BUT with that being said, if he want's to carry the franchise, he'll seriously have to develop inside presence and a lot of post play. You can't be considered Shaq or D.Robinson #2, without any post play. His mid range shot is automatic but he's still getting a ton of baskets from easy assists. It's great that he improved his rebounds and blocks as well. He's going to be a seriously fun player to watch in his prime. Easily 25-30ppg/15reb type of guy. I think PHX won't regret their draft decision.

I think he will be just fine in the post, expecially playing against smaller lineups, so modern in todays NBA. The scary thing is the Suns don't have a legitimate PG and yet people consider his baskets easy. Sounds good for the future when they actually put a real PG in the starting lineup, who will feed him more and there will be less hero ball from Booker, who is pretty average in the PG role. I'm sure both of them will also build a much better chemistry in the future, which will be the key for the team's success.

Well yes and no. A proper PG would certainly help, but he's already getting a lot of assists. Players are looking for him. He is getting more shots than other veteran centers. Excluding obviously AD, KAT type of players. But you need to understand that he also needs help. Book needs his shots, same goes for TJ... Ayton was exhausted couple of times last game. So he is not a terminator yet and players do look for him more and more now

He's shooting 60%, and on most nights better than that. He should be getting a lot more shots than he is.

The last two games he could have easily had 40 if the suns were any good at getting the ball into the post for him.

It's true he doesn't have a very complete post game currently, but from 6 feet and in, I haven't seen a more effective player since Shaq.

The last 4 games his effort and aggressiveness are way up. Those doubting him are just wrong, he has shown slow steady improvement all year, and his rookie stats matchup very favorably with pretty much any other current day great bigs.

[Imon]

This ROY race is beginning to look like Ayton vs Doncic to me.

I know people are liking JJJ because he's playing on the Grizzlies, who are doing well, but Conley and Gasol are the two main cogs on that team. Not to say JJJ isn't important to that team's success but Ayton and Doncic both play a bigger role on their respective teams.

Doncic leads his team in MPG and PPG while Ayton is 3rd on his team in MPG (although Ariza was 2nd and he's now gone plus Booker missed some games this year). I think as the year goes on Ayton will continue to improve and make this a competitive ROY race to the finish.

[spanishninja]

Honest question; have you actually watched Ayton the last 6 weeks?

It seems like you haven’t if you think he has limited defensive upside. He’s already improved from bad to average in his first 3 months and was one of the best big man defenders in the last 6 weeks on the eye test and the stats.

It just seems a lot of people hear things, don’t actually watch the games and then run with them as facts not understanding players improve or aren’t limited to being exactly what they were as players in college.

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

Useless is claiming that a player shoots 7/21 every game when the stats clearly say otherwise. His TS% is above the league average.

But whatever narrative makes you feel better I guess. One other Sun’s fan apparently thinks your post was brilliant.

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

and for the record, Doncic is still the best rookie. but Ayton is clearly catching up to him quick.

[spanishninja]

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

Yes, because people base their opinion on a single game. Oh, wait, they don't, it's you who does that.

just like how you shouldn't talk ROTY based on less than half a season, but here we are.

[VCfor3]

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

Useless is claiming that a player shoots 7/21 every game when the stats clearly say otherwise. His TS% is above the league average.

But whatever narrative makes you feel better I guess. One other Sun’s fan apparently thinks your post was brilliant.

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

His shooting numbers dropped as the season progressed last year too. I think it could be a fatigue thing especially with the increased usage. I think that in time he'll build up his stamina and it'll be less of an issue.

[spanishninja]

Useless is claiming that a player shoots 7/21 every game when the stats clearly say otherwise. His TS% is above the league average.

But whatever narrative makes you feel better I guess. One other Sun’s fan apparently thinks your post was brilliant.

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

His shooting numbers dropped as the season progressed last year too. I think it could be a fatigue thing especially with the increased usage. I think that in time he'll build up his stamina and it'll be less of an issue.

all I am saying is that he does indeed have a flaw to work on. the Lebron comparisons are just a tad premature?

[Archx]

I think he will be just fine in the post, expecially playing against smaller lineups, so modern in todays NBA. The scary thing is the Suns don't have a legitimate PG and yet people consider his baskets easy. Sounds good for the future when they actually put a real PG in the starting lineup, who will feed him more and there will be less hero ball from Booker, who is pretty average in the PG role. I'm sure both of them will also build a much better chemistry in the future, which will be the key for the team's success.

Well yes and no. A proper PG would certainly help, but he's already getting a lot of assists. Players are looking for him. He is getting more shots than other veteran centers. Excluding obviously AD, KAT type of players. But you need to understand that he also needs help. Book needs his shots, same goes for TJ... Ayton was exhausted couple of times last game. So he is not a terminator yet and players do look for him more and more now

He's shooting 60%, and on most nights better than that. He should be getting a lot more shots than he is.

The last two games he could have easily had 40 if the suns were any good at getting the ball into the post for him.

It's true he doesn't have a very complete post game currently, but from 6 feet and in, I haven't seen a more effective player since Shaq.

The last 4 games his effort and aggressiveness are way up. Those doubting him are just wrong, he has shown slow steady improvement all year, and his rookie stats matchup very favorably with pretty much any other current day great bigs.

Yes he is shooting incredibly well and he is efficient. But most of his points come from easy assists. You increase his shot volume and let him create his own offense, the % will go down. And we have seen this before this season. It's not a rocket science.
But like i talked before, you have to consider everything that is going on. You can't simplify this by saying "give him more shots and he'll be Shaq nr2"...
Same goes for his closest competitor for ROY, Doncic. He also had a ton of games so far where he could have gone for 40, but he has to create offense for himself and obviously his % goes down through the game. These players have to do a lot of work on offense and defense, they get tired, have bad stretches during the game etc...

This rookie class is so good that we're forgetting that they are just that, rookies. We over criticize them and we simply want them to do too much.

I believe what Ayton is doing now, is exactly what Igor wanted from him, and it's finally working. Suns will still need some time to figure it out, but they are slowly but surely starting to feel like a proper unit.
The future for some of these rookies is very bright. Hopefully when they enter their primes, they'll have a proper team around them so that they will be able to use their talent to the fullest.

[VCfor3]

This ROY race is beginning to look like Ayton vs Doncic to me.

I know people are liking JJJ because he's playing on the Grizzlies, who are doing well, but Conley and Gasol are the two main cogs on that team. Not to say JJJ isn't important to that team's success but Ayton and Doncic both play a bigger role on their respective teams.

Doncic leads his team in MPG and PPG while Ayton is 3rd on his team in MPG (although Ariza was 2nd and he's now gone plus Booker missed some games this year). I think as the year goes on Ayton will continue to improve and make this a competitive ROY race to the finish.

I think that JJJ is 3rd right now behind Ayton and Doncic if the vote was today. I doubt he will win, but it'll be interesting to see how he is used over the next couple of weeks. Previously, he'd go have a big 1st quarter and then Memphis would stop giving him the ball on offense. After the SAC game, Conley said he and the other players need to do a better job of getting him the ball all four quarters. They did against the Lakers and it made a huge difference since it took some of the burden off of Conley and he wasn't gassed in the 4th when the Grizzlies typically say "Mike run around and just make something happen". If they keep feeding him all game, his numbers should look a little more impressive. He already is in the mix if you look at "Per 100 possessions" stats since the Grizzlies play at such a slow pace.

Just looking at points per 100 possessions:
Doncic: 28.1
JJJ: 26.3
Ayton: 26.0 (Higher OBPM than JJJ though)
Bagley: 25.4
Sexton: 25.0
Young: 24.1
WCJ: 20.3
Bamba: 19.2
Shai: 18.3
As for the other stats, each rookie has what they are better at. Ayton and rebounds, Bamba and blocks, JJJ and stocks (steals+blocks), Young and assists

PS: I do think that Conley/Gasol being around JJJ helps him out and is definitely a factor

[VCfor3]

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

His shooting numbers dropped as the season progressed last year too. I think it could be a fatigue thing especially with the increased usage. I think that in time he'll build up his stamina and it'll be less of an issue.

all I am saying is that he does indeed have a flaw to work on. the Lebron comparisons are just a tad premature?

He definitely has his flaws and though he is playing extremely well for a rookie he still has to keep really improving before he is truly in the Lebron-caliber conversation though it is fun to discuss. I just was pointing out a reason why his shooting may have dropped off some. Doncic has a very high floor and a ton of potential, but he still has to achieve that potential. Personally I think he will be one of the top 10 players in the league at some point and will be an absolute stud while not quite being in the GOAT conversation with MJ and Lebron but we will see what happens. There is always the chance that all of his professional basketball background allowed him to really develop a lot of his potential early and that he will still improve but not as much as people hope moving forward. Most teams though would be happy to add a player of his current caliber to their teams.

[spanishninja]

His shooting numbers dropped as the season progressed last year too. I think it could be a fatigue thing especially with the increased usage. I think that in time he'll build up his stamina and it'll be less of an issue.

all I am saying is that he does indeed have a flaw to work on. the Lebron comparisons are just a tad premature?

He definitely has his flaws and though he is playing extremely well for a rookie he still has to keep really improving before he is truly in the Lebron-caliber conversation though it is fun to discuss. I just was pointing out a reason why his shooting may have dropped off some. Doncic has a very high floor and a ton of potential, but he still has to achieve that potential. Personally I think he will be one of the top 10 players in the league at some point and will be an absolute stud while not quite being in the GOAT conversation with MJ and Lebron but we will see what happens. There is always the chance that all of his professional basketball background allowed him to really develop a lot of his potential early and that he will still improve but not as much as people hope moving forward. Most teams though would be happy to add a player of his current caliber to their teams.

i think even more ridiculous than this thread overhyping Doncic is how they are so quick to conclude that Ayton will never be as good. ultimately people need something to believe in, and are fine with jumping to conclusions.

[Wilber85]

There isn’t that much that jumps out at me. He’s gonna be getting easy buckets in off lobs, and put backs. And he can hit a face up jumper. He has limited handles and his post game his limited (he had like 2 post moves that game that were simple hooks). Doesn’t seem like he’s anywhere close to being a player where you can just give him the ball and go to work. And if he can’t get there offensively he won’t have an all star level impact with mediocre D.

That said, he is already extremely effective in his current role, is a great offensive rebounders, and centres tend to take long to develop offensively.

Man. If can look at that and see nothing special, then I really have to wonder what you are watching.

Nothing special is a bit harash. He’s obviously going to have a long NBA career and is a talented and physically gifted player. But don’t see indication of a franchise carrying offense in his future

Dude ... Do you expect a rookie center to be an impact his first 30 + games & should be #1 carrying the offense? Should he be leading the team to the playoffs already?

You guys are crazy. Dude is avg 17/11 as a rookie, and that is without Booker in a lot of games, or a capable PG.

His defense is trash but he is a rebounding beast, and starting to get his Blocks up per game.

I can see if he was avg under 10 ppg and 10 rpg but he isn't! How many rookies have avg a double double in history?

Can someone run that stat for me?

[VCfor3]

all I am saying is that he does indeed have a flaw to work on. the Lebron comparisons are just a tad premature?

He definitely has his flaws and though he is playing extremely well for a rookie he still has to keep really improving before he is truly in the Lebron-caliber conversation though it is fun to discuss. I just was pointing out a reason why his shooting may have dropped off some. Doncic has a very high floor and a ton of potential, but he still has to achieve that potential. Personally I think he will be one of the top 10 players in the league at some point and will be an absolute stud while not quite being in the GOAT conversation with MJ and Lebron but we will see what happens. There is always the chance that all of his professional basketball background allowed him to really develop a lot of his potential early and that he will still improve but not as much as people hope moving forward. Most teams though would be happy to add a player of his current caliber to their teams.

i think even more ridiculous than this thread overhyping Doncic is how they are so quick to conclude that Ayton will never be as good. ultimately people need something to believe in, and are fine with jumping to conclusions.

Time will tell. I think Doncic will likely end up better but Ayton looks like a franchise player for the Suns and I doubt the Suns FO will be all that upset with their pick.

[spanishninja]

Man. If can look at that and see nothing special, then I really have to wonder what you are watching.

Nothing special is a bit harash. He’s obviously going to have a long NBA career and is a talented and physically gifted player. But don’t see indication of a franchise carrying offense in his future

Dude ... Do you expect a rookie center to be an impact his first 30 + games & should be #1 carrying the offense? Should he be leading the team to the playoffs already?

You guys are crazy. Dude is avg 17/11 as a rookie, and that is without Booker in a lot of games, or a capable PG.

His defense is trash but he is a rebounding beast, and starting to get his Blocks up per game.

I can see if he was avg under 10 ppg and 10 rpg but he isn't! How many rookies have avg a double double in history?

Can someone run that stat for me?

i can tell you that 16/10 on 60% is really rare.

as far as defense goes, he has already shown improved defensive rating each month, and he is at the very least comparable with Doncic in that department. people often ignore that Ayton doesn't get to play alongside a DPoY, and big man defense in today's league is not easy. he certainly has the tools to fix this deficiency.

[The_Hater]

it's useless. people talk about the highlight plays but ignore Doncic being 7-21 from the field and missing all his shots in OT.

Useless is claiming that a player shoots 7/21 every game when the stats clearly say otherwise. His TS% is above the league average.

But whatever narrative makes you feel better I guess. One other Sun’s fan apparently thinks your post was brilliant.

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

and for the record, Doncic is still the best rookie. but Ayton is clearly catching up to him quick.

Cherry picking stats from the last 3 weeks rather than using the entire season because they’re lower. Well done.

More of the same garbage in order to prove a false narrative.

[The_Hater]

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

His shooting numbers dropped as the season progressed last year too. I think it could be a fatigue thing especially with the increased usage. I think that in time he'll build up his stamina and it'll be less of an issue.

all I am saying is that he does indeed have a flaw to work on. the Lebron comparisons are just a tad premature?

I’ve never seen a single person compare him to Lebrun. Nor should they.

Why do you keep making **** up?

[spanishninja]

Useless is claiming that a player shoots 7/21 every game when the stats clearly say otherwise. His TS% is above the league average.

But whatever narrative makes you feel better I guess. One other Sun’s fan apparently thinks your post was brilliant.

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

and for the record, Doncic is still the best rookie. but Ayton is clearly catching up to him quick.

Cherry picking stats from the last 3 weeks rather than using the entire season because they’re lower. Well done.

More of the same garbage in order to prove a false narrative.

it's not cherrypicking when there's a trend. every month so far his shooting has gone down.

and what is my narrative exactly? i'm agreeing that Doncic is the best rookie so far, dude.

[Kabookalu]

Saw a comment that Ayton is like Dwight with a jumper. Ayton's already a better offensive player than Dwight ever was. Ayton's like the big man version of a Klay Thompson like spacer. He's so good at comforming the situation around him to turn into a good post up opportunity. That highlight vid against Brooklyn, just look at all the ways he coyly manipulates the situation where he can just drop step for an easy 2 before he even gets the ball.

Dwight was difficult to work with even for an elite passer like Harden because his fundamentals around the basket were so mediocre. He looks to ISO in the post and only ISO. He doesn't use his footwork to manuever around the defense to make it easier for post entry passers to get it to him. Dwight wants you to revolve the offense around him, whereas Ayton is a sponge who can work around you.

[advent11]

i was referring to just that one game, but now that you mentioned it, 40% FG and 32% 3FG in December so far. his shooting has gone down every month, likely as usage went up. this month his shooting is clealry not average, lol.

and for the record, Doncic is still the best rookie. but Ayton is clearly catching up to him quick.

Cherry picking stats from the last 3 weeks rather than using the entire season because they’re lower. Well done.

More of the same garbage in order to prove a false narrative.

it's not cherrypicking when there's a trend. every month so far his shooting has gone down.

and what is my narrative exactly? i'm agreeing that Doncic is the best rookie so far, dude.

His shooting might be down, but his assist/TO, rebounding, free throws and RPM are all trending up

RPM:
56. Doncic +1.65
96. JJJ +.81
222. Ayton -.90