Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[michaelm]

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

I agree except that a proven anti-viral therapy might also be game changing, and perhaps more likely to be achieved and if an existing therapy like remdesivir much more quickly achievable.

Well if an antiviral therapy or a vaccine is the only acceptable end game, our leadership should tell us that along w/ an ETA on when those things will be ready so we can plan for and accept that situation. They owe us that so we aren’t sitting in limbo forever getting mad at each other for feeling the way we do and having different opinions.

If we are going to accept an opening (the three phases the WH released) before a therapy/vaccine is ready, they need to tell us what the specific criteria are to begin Phase 1, and give regular reports on where each area stands towards those criteria.

The above is how these types of things are handled in any well functioning organization, but what we have now is not that. It’s just a mixed bag of experts and political leaders spouting their opinions and, often partisan, attacks against those who feel differently, with no organized plan at all except for locking everything down to buy more time. It’s been over a month that we’ve been in this crisis/panic mode, and they still don’t have an organized plan or any answers for what we are going to do next. The inefficiencies of the US government’s structure are really showing right now.

What you are saying in regard to re-opening is pretty much what is happening in Australia and NZ.

I don’t think anyone anywhere thinks a high degree of lockdown for 18 months is a viable option, but I don’t think going back to fully normal overnight in the next couple of weeks is either. We don’t obviously even know how the virus will behave in the longer term.

What is being proposed here is re-opening while continuing social distancing, a high level of testing, a focus on clusters, chasing down contacts, strong protective measures for the vulnerable such as the elderly particularly in nursing homes etc. I have to say in a nation as diverse and with as high a population as the USA operating on a state by state basis would seem sensible.

[Pointgod]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

Regarding the protests the thing that disgusts me the most are the comments from Americans literally wishing them death and sickness and saying they don’t deserve medical treatment if they get sick. Maybe you don’t agree with them, but I think that’s an absolutely horrible thing to say about and wish upon fellow humans just for going outside and standing together not wearing masks. Similar stuff said about the people in the photos on the beaches.

If that’s how people feel about people who actually have the nerve to gather in a somewhat regular fashion on 4/20 - there isn’t any way in hell that the country is opening up in May. People will be doing things like physically assaulting and shaming the first people that dare go outside if these nasty comments are indications. The virus has literally turned this country into a police state of hate and fear of each other and getting back to normal seems further away than ever after over a month of everyone locked inside.

And the NBA can forget about playing games anytime soon cause I’m sure people will be wishing them death and sickness too, especially if they are the first to try to do something.

I’m not going to get into the political aspect of the protests but let’s just say that they’re not on the up and up and it’s obvious they’re pushing a very specific narrative.

Simply put the protestors are trying to protest in favor of possibly spreading the virus and killing people. So I’m not surprised if people have little sympathy for them because the majority of them are acting completely selfishly and have already put themselves and other people in danger. So from the perspective of containing the virus they are only making things worse. I’ll ask everyone who’s in favor of opening things up the same question.

1. What do you expect the economy and business to look like if we were to open up tomorrow?
2. What measures are in place to address a spike in cases if restrictions are removed?

[E-Balla]

Shoutout to my governor that stole the election trying to kill us. Good ole American "democracy" at work.

[speedfiend]

Meanwhile, over in China, they have newscasters telling the population that Covid-19 escaped an American lab and came from America over to China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8237179/Beijings-state-anchor-tells-Arabic-world-coronavirus-pandemic-started-US.html

I think that alternate US origin conspiracy theory is nonsensical for a number of reasons, but the evidence for the China lab error theory is not all that much less circumstantial imo, and I am not sure which was first.

Ok, assuming that I buy Trump's argument, that the reason why the pandemic is wreaking havoc in the US and the west now is because of China's lies, that it's all China's fault, and that things wouldn't be so bad in the US if China didn't lie

How do you explain other Asian countries?

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, etc

So far, as of April 20th, the death toll in those countries are 236, 236, 47, 89, and 11, respectively.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/)

Did China not lie to them as well?

Most Asian countries know, from lessons learned in the 2003 SARS epidemic, that when China says "there's nothing see here" or "there's no need to panic" then there is definitely something to see and start preparing for.

[Pointgod]

I don't really understand the protesters who are lobbying to Governors to open their respective economies back up. Public confidence plays a big role in the economy. It's all domino effect too in almost every industry is affected by another. There's no protester that is going to change the mind of PEOPLE who want to stay home and safe until the health/science people tell us otherwise. And without that, it doesn't really matter what any governor does. I think some of these protesters are pretty naive if they think they can rush this by protesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders/index.html

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

Literally no one is advocating for that. No country has taken those measures or proposed those measures. What people are advocating for is making decisions based on data, experts and safe guards in place if cases spike back up. Remember first it was, things need to open up by Easter, now it’s the economy needs to open up in May. All of this is based on what exactly? It’s been what 5 weeks since sheltering in place started across the US, China imposed lock downs for 2 months and they were absolutely brutal in their restrictions and are definitely lying about their numbers. This was always a 2-3 month situation after which restrictions would need to gradually be lifted. But even then large scale testing needs to be in place, contact tracing needs to be widely available and policies need to be put in place to help those who will be affected in subsequent waves.

[lakerz12]

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

Literally no one is advocating for that. No country has taken those measures or proposed those measures. What people are advocating for is making decisions based on data, experts and safe guards in place if cases spike back up. Remember first it was, things need to open up by Easter, now it’s the economy needs to open up in May. All of this is based on what exactly? It’s been what 5 weeks since sheltering in place started across the US, China imposed lock downs for 2 months and they were absolutely brutal in their restrictions and are definitely lying about their numbers. This was always a 2-3 month situation after which restrictions would need to gradually be lifted. But even then large scale testing needs to be in place, contact tracing needs to be widely available and policies need to be put in place to help those who will be affected in subsequent waves.

And the lockdown was based on what exactly? It was based on a theoretical model and very limited data. But you were cool with that with no hesitation?

I wish the economy could just stay on pause indefinitely with no negative repercussions but unfortunately that is a fantasy.

Please research what will happen if we continue in a lockdown and enter into a serious recession or depression.

Please stop thinking of the virus as the only threat. Economic depression also brings death, poverty, increased inequality, etc.

Right now our economy is being artificially held up by bailouts and a stimulus package. This is not sustainable. Soon there will be riots. There will be chaos.

The virus is not the only enemy or the only thing to be feared.

[SK21209]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493722-us-needs-to-conduct-20-million-coronavirus-tests-per-day-to-fully-open

20 million tests a day just doesn’t sound feasible. Every state is going to adopt a Sweden-ish policy with the next 2 months.

[Topofthekey]

I think that alternate US origin conspiracy theory is nonsensical for a number of reasons, but the evidence for the China lab error theory is not all that much less circumstantial imo, and I am not sure which was first.

Ok, assuming that I buy Trump's argument, that the reason why the pandemic is wreaking havoc in the US and the west now is because of China's lies, that it's all China's fault, and that things wouldn't be so bad in the US if China didn't lie

How do you explain other Asian countries?

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, etc

So far, as of April 20th, the death toll in those countries are 236, 236, 47, 89, and 11, respectively.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/)

Did China not lie to them as well?

Most Asian countries know, from lessons learned in the 2003 SARS epidemic, that when China says "there's nothing see here" or "there's no need to panic" then there is definitely something to see and start preparing for.

Lol

So what you're saying is, the US and the west are suffering because they were too nice and trusting

Please, do you not realize how absurd that sounds?

How about a more straight forward explanation: most Asian countries were competent in dealing with the pandemic, the US and most western countries were not

Case in point: Singapore recorded its first case of Covid-19 on Jan 23rd. Singapore immediately commenced contact tracing and testing

Meanwhile, more than ONE MONTH later, Italy still uploaded the now infamous "Milan does not stop" video onto YouTube, on February 27th
(source: https://youtu.be/kqQ0M42I_A0)

[DowJones]

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

I don't think many (probably less than 1% of people) are advocating that people stay quarantined for 18-36 months. However, I think you just need to be patient because the short-term trend does look good. There are really two possible outcomes: (1) the number of cases keeps on going up - in which you would probably agree that we should stay until it stabilizes and (2) the number of cases keeps on going down (which you would probably bet on since you are eager to come out) - in which we can just wait 7-10 days for the trend to be established and then come out. So I think at most, if the downward trend persists for a week or so, then more people will be inclined to open up the economy and it will happen naturally.

Remember, most people have very flexible stances here. I can be saying that people should quarantine today but two weeks from now, I might be saying that everyone should come out now based on the data. No one has a strong stance here. It is all about observing the data and acting accordingly.

Simply looking at number of cases is pointless as we never had a good starting point. The number of cases will go up as the testing goes up. I expect the number of confirmed cases to go up for a long time. Are our deaths dropping? Are our hospitalization rates falling? That is what is more important.

Heck, I can argue that the number of confirmed cases rising without a simultaneous increase in hospitalization rate is a good thing.

[DowJones]

Last night's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 764,177 confirmed cases(+20,921 increase), Recoveries- 70,172(+4767 increase), Deaths- 40,591(+1674 increase)
New York- 242,786 confimed cases (+6054 increase)
New Jersey- 85,301 confirmed cases (+3881 increase)
Mass- 38,077 confirmed cases(+1705 increase)
Penn- 32,284 confirmed cases(+2843 increase)
Michigan- 31,424 confirmed cases(+633 increase)
Illinois- 30,357 confirmed cases(+1197 increase)
California- 28,963 confirmed cases(+64 increase)
Florida- 26,314 confirmed cases(+822 increase)
Louisana- 23,928 confirmed cases(+810 increase)
Texas- 18,923 confirmed cases(+663 increase)
Georgia- 18,391 confirmed cases(+722 increase)
Connecticut- 17,962 confirmed cases(+412 increase)
Maryland- 12,830 confirmed cases(+379 increase)
Washington- 11,790 confirmed cases(+345 increase)
Ohio- 11,602 confirmed cases(+1380 increase)
Indiana- 11,510 confirmed cases(+569 increase)
Colorado- 9730 confirmed cases(+297 increase)

Spain- 198,674 confirmed cases(+3747 increase), Recoveries- 77,357(+2560 increase)
Italy- 178,972 confirmed cases(+917 increase)
Germany- 144,406 confirmed cases(+1296 increase)
United Kingdom- 120,067 confirmed cases(+5850 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 764,303 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 71,003, Deaths- 40,548
New York- 247,215 confirmed cases(+6174 increase)
New Jersey- 85,301 confirmed cases(+3881 increase)
Mass- 38,077 confirmed cases(+1705 increase)
Penn- 32,734 confirmed cases(+1003 increase)
California- 31,430 confirmed cases(+712 increase)
Michigan- 31,424 confirmed cases(+633 increase)
Illinois- 30,357 confirmed cases(+1197 increase)
Florida- 26,314 confirmed cases(+822 increase)
Louisana- 23,928 confirmed cases(+348 increase)
Texas- 19,317 confirmed cases(+638 increase)
Georgia- 18,157 confirmed cases(+316 increase)
Connecticut- 17,962 confirmed cases(+412 increase)
Maryland- 12,830 confirmed cases(+522 increase)
Washington- 12,261 confirmed cases(+459 increase)
Ohio- 11,602 confirmed cases(+1380 increase)
Indiana-11,210 confirmed cases(+569 increase)
Colorado- 9730 confirmed cases(+297 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 15,000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut is right behind Texas in total confimed cases and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 9 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9854
5. Texas now 8 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day(full week)
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and all 3 states now have 2 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day.
7. USA had nearly 5000 recoveries today GREAT JOB
8. Ohio had a big jump today in new confirmed cases with 1380 increase, That's a small state

Today's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 795,898 confirmed cases(+29,718 increase), Recoveries- 72,715(+2003 increase), Deaths- 42,560(+1969 increase)

New York- 247,512 confirmed cases(+4726 increase)
New jersey- 88,806 confirmed cases(+3505 increase)
Mass- 39,643 confirmed cases(+1566 increase)
California- 33,404 confirmed cases(+4441 increase)
Penn- 33,232 confirmed cases(+948 increase)
Michigan- 32,000 confirmed cases(+1209 increase)
Illinois- 31,508 confirmed cases(+2348 increase)
Florida- 27,058 confirmed cases(+744 increase)
Louisana- 24,523 confirmed cases(+595 increase)
Connecticut- 19,815 confirmed cases(+1853 increase)
Texas- 19,458 confirmed cases(+535 increase)
Georgia- 19,399 confirmed cases(+1008 increase)
Maryland- 13,684 confirmed cases(+1230 increase)
Ohio- 12,919 confirmed cases(+2697 increase)
Washington- 11,934 confirmed cases(+132 increase)
Indiana- 11,686 confirmed cases(+1045 increase)
Colorado- 10,106 confirmed cases(+376 increase)
Virginia- 8990 confirmed cases(+2101 increase)

Spain- 200,210 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 80,587(+3230 increase)
Italy- 182,228 confirmed cases(+434 increase)
Germany- 147,139 confirmed cases(+2733 increase), Recoveries- 87,500
United Kingdom- 124,743 confirmed cases(+4676 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 792,759 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 72,389, Deaths- 42,514

New York-252,094 confirmed cases(+4879 increase)
New Jersey- 88,806 confirmed cases(+3505 increase)
Mass- 39,643 confirmed cases(+1566 increase)
Penn- 39,914 confirmed cases(+1180 increase)
California- 33,686 confirmed cases(+2256 increase)
Michigan- 32,000 confirmed cases(+576 increase)
Illinois- 31,508 confirmed cases(+1151 increase)
Florida- 27,058 confirmed cases(+744 increase)
Louisana- 24,523 confirmed cases(+595 increase)
Texas- 19,822 confirmed cases(+505 increase)
Connecticut- 19,815 confirmed cases(+1853 increase)
Georgia- 19,399 confirmed cases(+1242 increase)
Maryland- 13,284 confirmed cases(+854 increase)
Ohio- 12,919 confirmed cases(+1317 increase)
Washington- 12,085 confirmed cases(+295 increase)
Indiana- 11,686 confirmed cases(+476 increase)
Colorado- 10,106 confirmed cases(+376 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 12,000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut has just passed Texas in total confimed cases according to worldometers and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 10 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9651
5. Texas now 9 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and Michigan and Florida now have 3 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day. While Georgia had over 1000 new cases today
7. Ohio had a big jump today in new confirmed cases over 1000, different numbers from bing and worldometers as of 9pm eastern time. 2 straight days of increase in over 1000 cases each day.
8. New York is slowly bringing down their increase in new cases each day, They were increasing 7000 to almost 20,000 new cases each day but today they increased around +4800. Once New York gets a day that they only increase around 1000 per day or just under 1000 per day, Than New York would be under control.

Ohio is the 7th largest state in the country in terms of population, right behind Illinois and PA. It’s not small at all.

Their increase in confirmed cases is because they tested a bunch of prisons. One prison had a huge outbreak and they flooded it with testing. I think of the 1,700 confirmed cases only 115 even had symptoms. That is actually really encouraging.

[DowJones]

These posters are repeating political talking points and let’s just say these protests aren’t all on the level. I honestly wonder how posters that what to open up the economy actually picture life operating? It’s crazy to risk the virus spreading for what will definitely not be a return to pre corona economic situation.

So are you advocating for shelter in place to continue over the next 18-36 months until we find a vaccine? It's not like this virus is just going to disappear. It will always be out there until a vaccine is found. There is no way to prevent the risk of spreading the virus until a vaccine is found.

Literally no one is advocating for that. No country has taken those measures or proposed those measures. What people are advocating for is making decisions based on data, experts and safe guards in place if cases spike back up. Remember first it was, things need to open up by Easter, now it’s the economy needs to open up in May. All of this is based on what exactly? It’s been what 5 weeks since sheltering in place started across the US, China imposed lock downs for 2 months and they were absolutely brutal in their restrictions and are definitely lying about their numbers. This was always a 2-3 month situation after which restrictions would need to gradually be lifted. But even then large scale testing needs to be in place, contact tracing needs to be widely available and policies need to be put in place to help those who will be affected in subsequent waves.

But in 2 or 3 months the virus will still be out there and removing the quarantine will increase the risk of it spreading. This is exactly what you argued against us doing in the post I quoted.

[NBAFan93]

Last night's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 764,177 confirmed cases(+20,921 increase), Recoveries- 70,172(+4767 increase), Deaths- 40,591(+1674 increase)
New York- 242,786 confimed cases (+6054 increase)
New Jersey- 85,301 confirmed cases (+3881 increase)
Mass- 38,077 confirmed cases(+1705 increase)
Penn- 32,284 confirmed cases(+2843 increase)
Michigan- 31,424 confirmed cases(+633 increase)
Illinois- 30,357 confirmed cases(+1197 increase)
California- 28,963 confirmed cases(+64 increase)
Florida- 26,314 confirmed cases(+822 increase)
Louisana- 23,928 confirmed cases(+810 increase)
Texas- 18,923 confirmed cases(+663 increase)
Georgia- 18,391 confirmed cases(+722 increase)
Connecticut- 17,962 confirmed cases(+412 increase)
Maryland- 12,830 confirmed cases(+379 increase)
Washington- 11,790 confirmed cases(+345 increase)
Ohio- 11,602 confirmed cases(+1380 increase)
Indiana- 11,510 confirmed cases(+569 increase)
Colorado- 9730 confirmed cases(+297 increase)

Spain- 198,674 confirmed cases(+3747 increase), Recoveries- 77,357(+2560 increase)
Italy- 178,972 confirmed cases(+917 increase)
Germany- 144,406 confirmed cases(+1296 increase)
United Kingdom- 120,067 confirmed cases(+5850 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 764,303 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 71,003, Deaths- 40,548
New York- 247,215 confirmed cases(+6174 increase)
New Jersey- 85,301 confirmed cases(+3881 increase)
Mass- 38,077 confirmed cases(+1705 increase)
Penn- 32,734 confirmed cases(+1003 increase)
California- 31,430 confirmed cases(+712 increase)
Michigan- 31,424 confirmed cases(+633 increase)
Illinois- 30,357 confirmed cases(+1197 increase)
Florida- 26,314 confirmed cases(+822 increase)
Louisana- 23,928 confirmed cases(+348 increase)
Texas- 19,317 confirmed cases(+638 increase)
Georgia- 18,157 confirmed cases(+316 increase)
Connecticut- 17,962 confirmed cases(+412 increase)
Maryland- 12,830 confirmed cases(+522 increase)
Washington- 12,261 confirmed cases(+459 increase)
Ohio- 11,602 confirmed cases(+1380 increase)
Indiana-11,210 confirmed cases(+569 increase)
Colorado- 9730 confirmed cases(+297 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 15,000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut is right behind Texas in total confimed cases and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 9 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9854
5. Texas now 8 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day(full week)
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and all 3 states now have 2 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day.
7. USA had nearly 5000 recoveries today GREAT JOB
8. Ohio had a big jump today in new confirmed cases with 1380 increase, That's a small state

Today's numbers as of 9pm from bing.com/covid

USA- 795,898 confirmed cases(+29,718 increase), Recoveries- 72,715(+2003 increase), Deaths- 42,560(+1969 increase)

New York- 247,512 confirmed cases(+4726 increase)
New jersey- 88,806 confirmed cases(+3505 increase)
Mass- 39,643 confirmed cases(+1566 increase)
California- 33,404 confirmed cases(+4441 increase)
Penn- 33,232 confirmed cases(+948 increase)
Michigan- 32,000 confirmed cases(+1209 increase)
Illinois- 31,508 confirmed cases(+2348 increase)
Florida- 27,058 confirmed cases(+744 increase)
Louisana- 24,523 confirmed cases(+595 increase)
Connecticut- 19,815 confirmed cases(+1853 increase)
Texas- 19,458 confirmed cases(+535 increase)
Georgia- 19,399 confirmed cases(+1008 increase)
Maryland- 13,684 confirmed cases(+1230 increase)
Ohio- 12,919 confirmed cases(+2697 increase)
Washington- 11,934 confirmed cases(+132 increase)
Indiana- 11,686 confirmed cases(+1045 increase)
Colorado- 10,106 confirmed cases(+376 increase)
Virginia- 8990 confirmed cases(+2101 increase)

Spain- 200,210 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 80,587(+3230 increase)
Italy- 182,228 confirmed cases(+434 increase)
Germany- 147,139 confirmed cases(+2733 increase), Recoveries- 87,500
United Kingdom- 124,743 confirmed cases(+4676 increase)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA- 792,759 confirmed cases, Recoveries- 72,389, Deaths- 42,514

New York-252,094 confirmed cases(+4879 increase)
New Jersey- 88,806 confirmed cases(+3505 increase)
Mass- 39,643 confirmed cases(+1566 increase)
Penn- 39,914 confirmed cases(+1180 increase)
California- 33,686 confirmed cases(+2256 increase)
Michigan- 32,000 confirmed cases(+576 increase)
Illinois- 31,508 confirmed cases(+1151 increase)
Florida- 27,058 confirmed cases(+744 increase)
Louisana- 24,523 confirmed cases(+595 increase)
Texas- 19,822 confirmed cases(+505 increase)
Connecticut- 19,815 confirmed cases(+1853 increase)
Georgia- 19,399 confirmed cases(+1242 increase)
Maryland- 13,284 confirmed cases(+854 increase)
Ohio- 12,919 confirmed cases(+1317 increase)
Washington- 12,085 confirmed cases(+295 increase)
Indiana- 11,686 confirmed cases(+476 increase)
Colorado- 10,106 confirmed cases(+376 increase)

1. New Jersey is less than 12,000 new cases away from potentially reaching 100,000 confirmed cases
2. Connecticut has just passed Texas in total confimed cases according to worldometers and Texas is the 2nd largest US state but Texas is the worst or 2nd to worst US state in testing.
3. Louisana is now 10 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
4. Washington has had a small increase in new confirmed cases over 2 full weeks now, Now just have to watch their active cases left which is 9651
5. Texas now 9 straight days of low increase in new confirmed cases each day
6. Michigan, Florida and Georgia are among the top 11 states with the most confirmed cases and Michigan and Florida now have 3 straight days of keeping their new confirmed cases under 1000 for the day. While Georgia had over 1000 new cases today
7. Ohio had a big jump today in new confirmed cases over 1000, different numbers from bing and worldometers as of 9pm eastern time. 2 straight days of increase in over 1000 cases each day.
8. New York is slowly bringing down their increase in new cases each day, They were increasing 7000 to almost 20,000 new cases each day but today they increased around +4800. Once New York gets a day that they only increase around 1000 per day or just under 1000 per day, Than New York would be under control.

Ohio is the 7th largest state in the country in terms of population, right behind Illinois and PA. It’s not small at all.

Their increase in confirmed cases is because they tested a bunch of prisons. One prison had a huge outbreak and they flooded it with testing. I think of the 1,700 confirmed cases only 115 even had symptoms. That is actually really encouraging.

That’s extremely interesting and encouraging at the same time. I’m wondering also what the social interaction was at that prison - were they all confined to just their cells or did they get out and eat together, etc.? A lot of potential to learn about how the virus spreads there cause there would be a lot of controlled data in an environment like that.

I read that a lot of jails were just letting non-violent inmates out cause they didn’t want to have to deal w/ them getting covid and spreading it in the jail. I’m really not sure how I feel about that - I can legit see both sides of the argument. Of course the media did a story on how one of the released prisoners killed someone and got a lot of clicks and outraged comments for it.

[michaelm]

Ok, assuming that I buy Trump's argument, that the reason why the pandemic is wreaking havoc in the US and the west now is because of China's lies, that it's all China's fault, and that things wouldn't be so bad in the US if China didn't lie

How do you explain other Asian countries?

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, etc

So far, as of April 20th, the death toll in those countries are 236, 236, 47, 89, and 11, respectively.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/)

Did China not lie to them as well?

Most Asian countries know, from lessons learned in the 2003 SARS epidemic, that when China says "there's nothing see here" or "there's no need to panic" then there is definitely something to see and start preparing for.

Lol

So what you're saying is, the US and the west are suffering because they were too nice and trusting

Please, do you not realize how absurd that sounds?

How about a more straight forward explanation: most Asian countries were competent in dealing with the pandemic, the US and most western countries were not

Case in point: Singapore recorded its first case of Covid-19 on Jan 23rd. Singapore immediately commenced contact tracing and testing

Meanwhile, more than ONE MONTH later, Italy still uploaded the now infamous "Milan does not stop" video onto YouTube, on February 27th
(source: https://youtu.be/kqQ0M42I_A0)

No, I am arguing the opposite if you read my other posts in this thread. If China was tardy for a week or two other places you mentioned including the severely affected European countries and the USA were tardy for 4 - 6 weeks, and China at least had the excuse of being the first to encounter a pretty much unprecedented situation. I have previously posted myself that Asian countries neighboring China who had seen a partial precedent with the SARS virus did act quite quickly.

My sole point attempting to be apolitical and perhaps making the unwarranted assumption that on an American basketball forum you would be on the other side of the debate was that both the Chinese laboratory error origin and US laboratory origin error speculations are just that and pretty much based on circumstantial evidence imo. I have followed all of this fairly intently and was aware of these speculations 4 or 5 weeks ago.

I believe any claims that the virus was manufactured in the Wuhan virology laboratory or deliberately spread from there are completely without basis, and despite what Fox News has been saying that accidental spread from a mistake during experimentation in the Wuhan laboratory whilst not completely impossible is down the list of possibilities. Just off the top of my head I posted that SARS, MERS, Hendra virus in Australia and rabies were all zoonotic viruses of bat origin which had spread from bats to humans by various means to cause serious illnesses including deaths with no involvement of laboratory errors.

The US origin speculation draws an even longer bow involving coincidence rather than causation though imo. This basically seems to be that there was an overnight shutdown of a US virology lab by the CDC for safety reasons in August-September last year (which is indeed true), that there were subsequently cases of atypical pneumonia in the US (there are multiple other causes of atypical pneumonia), some vague story of a Japanese man catching the disease in Hawaii, and since there was US military participation in the Wuhan games in October therefore the US is responsible for a pandemic months later in China and later still in the USA, which is not consistent with how the disease has progressed in general. That all the known strains of the virus were present in the USA was proferred as proof that it had been there the longest, but can be explained by considerable continuing air travel to the USA from countries with the disease well after it had spread to the world; in regard to the latter there seems to be general agreement this was from the Wuhan wet market even if it didn't originate there.

Most propounding both theories seem to be politically motivated to me, and from what I have seen actual Chinese scientists/virologists while dismissing a laboratory origin are attributing it to bat-human interaction either directly, or through an intervening host as has been the case with the other bat coronavirus zoonoses, from farmers encroaching on bat habitats/farming wild life or from wet markets.

[old skool]

The problem with protests is that they stake out a position opposing an action with zero context.

Everyone agrees that the economy and our lives should reopen.

Everyone agrees that we should not suppress individual freedoms and liberties.

Where the protests fail, is that the only argument they seem to make for opening the economy is that they are tired of having their lives suspended and they don't believe the coronavirus is a threat to the general public. Everyone is somewhere on the compendium of being fed up, but opinions, regardless of vociferousity, are not a reason to overturn what is generally accepted to be a protection for the general public. Protesters deserve to be heard. But there is nothing compelling about voicing frustration and fear. We share that. The protesters don't seem to be convincing. The basis of their protest seems shallow. An emotionally simplistic reaction to an incredibly complicated problem. Problems that threaten a people as a whole require solutions that involve all of us. We have never solved a problem of magnitude by exercising our individual rights and whims. Individual rights and liberties are the result of collective efforts. They are an end, not a means to an end.

The coronavirus pandemic will not be solved by debate or by imposing legal or political will. We will only deal with this problem through management. By identifying and implementing best practices. By testing for infection, by contact tracing, by antibody testing. By social distancing. By developing vaccines and therapeutics. The better we manage this threat, the closer we can get back to normal. The less effective we are at managing this threat, the more our lives will change in ways that we detest.

Arguing among ourselves is counterproductive. It accomplishes nothing. It fuels discord and encourages our leaders to play to the audience instead of focusing on the task at hand, which is to figure out how to reshape our world to thrive in spite of the presence of this virus. It will take a lot of hard work to rebuild the economy, restructure our way of doing business, and rebuild consumer confidence. Those tasks are neither easier nor more difficult if we can blame China, or the WHO, or Congress, or the White House, or protesters or the media. Those are easy arguments, regardless of which side one takes, that distract from the real work that we need our leaders to do.

[Catchall]

Watch on YouTube

;feature=emb_rel_pause

[michaelm]

The problem with protests is that they stake out a position opposing an action with zero context.

Everyone agrees that the economy and our lives should reopen.

Everyone agrees that we should not suppress individual freedoms and liberties.

Where the protests fail, is that the only argument they seem to make for opening the economy is that they are tired of having their lives suspended and they don't believe the coronavirus is a threat to the general public. Everyone is somewhere on the compendium of being fed up, but opinions, regardless of vociferousity, are not a reason to overturn what is generally accepted to be a protection for the general public. Protesters deserve to be heard. But there is nothing compelling about voicing frustration and fear. We share that. The protesters don't seem to be convincing. The basis of their protest seems shallow. An emotionally simplistic reaction to an incredibly complicated problem. Problems that threaten a people as a whole require solutions that involve all of us. We have never solved a problem of magnitude by exercising our individual rights and whims. Individual rights and liberties are the result of collective efforts. They are an end, not a means to an end.

The coronavirus pandemic will not be solved by debate or by imposing legal or political will. We will only deal with this problem through management. By identifying and implementing best practices. By testing for infection, by contact tracing, by antibody testing. By social distancing. By developing vaccines and therapeutics. The better we manage this threat, the closer we can get back to normal. The less effective we are at managing this threat, the more our lives will change in ways that we detest.

Arguing among ourselves is counterproductive. It accomplishes nothing. It fuels discord and encourages our leaders to play to the audience instead of focusing on the task at hand, which is to figure out how to reshape our world to thrive in spite of the presence of this virus. It will take a lot of hard work to rebuild the economy, restructure our way of doing business, and rebuild consumer confidence. Those tasks are neither easier nor more difficult if we can blame China, or the WHO, or Congress, or the White House, or protesters or the media. Those are easy arguments, regardless of which side one takes, that distract from the real work that we need our leaders to do.

Absolutely. Origin debates etc are pretty much a distraction as matters sit currently.

[speedfiend]

Ok, assuming that I buy Trump's argument, that the reason why the pandemic is wreaking havoc in the US and the west now is because of China's lies, that it's all China's fault, and that things wouldn't be so bad in the US if China didn't lie

How do you explain other Asian countries?

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, etc

So far, as of April 20th, the death toll in those countries are 236, 236, 47, 89, and 11, respectively.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/)

Did China not lie to them as well?

Most Asian countries know, from lessons learned in the 2003 SARS epidemic, that when China says "there's nothing see here" or "there's no need to panic" then there is definitely something to see and start preparing for.

Lol

So what you're saying is, the US and the west are suffering because they were too nice and trusting

Please, do you not realize how absurd that sounds?

How about a more straight forward explanation: most Asian countries were competent in dealing with the pandemic, the US and most western countries were not

Case in point: Singapore recorded its first case of Covid-19 on Jan 23rd. Singapore immediately commenced contact tracing and testing

Meanwhile, more than ONE MONTH later, Italy still uploaded the now infamous "Milan does not stop" video onto YouTube, on February 27th
(source: https://youtu.be/kqQ0M42I_A0)

What made Singapore start contact tracing and testing immediately after the first case on 1/23? WHO was still saying no person to person infection at the time. It was the memory of SARS outbreak and the leaks from Wuhan.

I currently live in Asia, I know exactly the sentiment everyone here have regarding any official report from the CCP.

The US is suffering because of a denialist president unwilling to act in the interest of his people versus interest of corporate America. Europe is suffering because they are heavily dependent on tourism money from China, and were unwilling to close their borders until it's too late, also freedom of travel between EU members.

[TunaFish]

Without a vaccine or antiviral, all that can be done is to block transmission paths. You can't do that in the U.S. with the refusal to lock down all the states simultaneous. There is an unwillingness to do what needs to be done and that is obvious in the federal leadership.

We bought some time in the U.S. but that is all. The virus will go unchecked and spread further. The whole world is at risk.

[DowJones]

Without a vaccine or antiviral, all that can be done is to block transmission paths. You can't do that in the U.S. with the refusal to lock down all the states simultaneous. There is an unwillingness to do what needs to be done and that is obvious in the federal leadership.

We bought some time in the U.S. but that is all. The virus will go unchecked and spread further. The whole world is at risk.

What does "do what it takes" mean? I think that is the important question. Are you suggesting we shelter in place for the next 18-36 months until a new vaccine is found? This virus isn't just going to magically go away, so the risk will always be out there.

[HotRocks34]

Stir-crazy Tom Brady ejected from closed park in Tampa.

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/493833-tom-brady-spotted-working-out-in-closed-park-florida-mayor-says

NFL quarterback Tom Brady on Monday was spotted working out in a Tampa, Fla., park closed to prevent large social gatherings during the coronavirus pandemic.

...

That individual turned out to be the 42-year-old superstar quarterback, who recently signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after winning six Super Bowls as the longtime quarterback of the New England Patriots.

Castor added that a staff member asked Brady to leave the park.