2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 6) - with ROY poll

[HiRez]

Rookie tracker through Mar. 22.

[Tacoma]

Even if he finishes strong in PPG down the stretch, I can't see Cade deserving the ROY over Mobley and or Barnes. I think he's just been too inefficient, to many TOs, and not doing enough of playing winning basketball. I'm sure he'll get better at those things in year two and he hopefully will have more help around him but overall he may end up with the best numbers as far as PPG, RGB, and APG goes but he isn't deserving of ROY.

I don’t agree he doesn’t play winning basketball. The turnovers and efficiency things are valid to hold against him, but he plays with awful teammates and seems far and away the best player on the team already. They are atrocious without Cade and at least competitive in most matchups with him.

If anything, I think Cade has done the most of any of the top 3 to overcome doubts about his game. People were concerned about his assist/TO ratio and his ability to create his own shot but I believe he has put to bed those question marks. He has a positive ratio and he has shown the ability to create for himself. He can’t do it efficiently yet but a lot of that is because he commands the most defensive attention due to bad teammates.

The question marks around Scottie and Even haven’t been resolved in a satisfying manner IMO. People were concerned about Barnes’ shot and that his defense was worse than advertised. Barnes doesn’t have a reliable shot outside 10 feet and he is an average defender at best right now, more often than not slightly below average. For Mobley, people were concerned that his seemingly elite defense was being massively buoyed by the presence of Allen in the paint. I think this has been proven true; Mobley looks like a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 and is certainly no defensive anchor.

If Cade can keep this level of play up for the rest of the year, I’d probably give him the award. He’s done more than other rookies to put to bed the questions surrounding him.

So Cade's poor efficiency is excused because of his "awful" and "atrocious" teammates and you're "sure he'll get better," but Mobley and Barnes' concerns are called out as not overcoming pre-draft expectations about their game? That's some spin to favor Cade!

If you want to compare expectations then & now, consider: Cade was the consensus #1 with the highest expectations that he is just meeting. Mobley & Barnes were drafted at #3 & #4, lower expectations. In a re-draft now, both would rank higher than they were picked & Cade would no longer be the consensus #1, so in a sense, he has done worst of them from expectations perspective.

[Gasolina]

Even if he finishes strong in PPG down the stretch, I can't see Cade deserving the ROY over Mobley and or Barnes. I think he's just been too inefficient, to many TOs, and not doing enough of playing winning basketball. I'm sure he'll get better at those things in year two and he hopefully will have more help around him but overall he may end up with the best numbers as far as PPG, RGB, and APG goes but he isn't deserving of ROY.

I don’t agree he doesn’t play winning basketball. The turnovers and efficiency things are valid to hold against him, but he plays with awful teammates and seems far and away the best player on the team already. They are atrocious without Cade and at least competitive in most matchups with him.

If anything, I think Cade has done the most of any of the top 3 to overcome doubts about his game. People were concerned about his assist/TO ratio and his ability to create his own shot but I believe he has put to bed those question marks. He has a positive ratio and he has shown the ability to create for himself. He can’t do it efficiently yet but a lot of that is because he commands the most defensive attention due to bad teammates.

The question marks around Scottie and Even haven’t been resolved in a satisfying manner IMO. People were concerned about Barnes’ shot and that his defense was worse than advertised. Barnes doesn’t have a reliable shot outside 10 feet and he is an average defender at best right now, more often than not slightly below average. For Mobley, people were concerned that his seemingly elite defense was being massively buoyed by the presence of Allen in the paint. I think this has been proven true; Mobley looks like a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 and is certainly no defensive anchor.

If Cade can keep this level of play up for the rest of the year, I’d probably give him the award. He’s done more than other rookies to put to bed the questions surrounding him.

So for one, this isn't how ROY voting works. Plus, what has he shown to overcome doubts about his game? He's pretty much exactly what people projected.

ROY isn't a competition to see who's the best compared to what people thought they would be...

Cade has no shot at the award, the Pistons suck and while it's not his fault it 100% factors into the decision. That's even if you ignore the efficiency issues and putrid advanced metrics.

Also, the fact that you called Mobley a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 just proves that you haven't actually watched him play. He's an elite defender regardless of Allen. Yes, he's better when he can play the free safety role at the 4 but he's still elite at the 5. List out all of the 7 footers in the NBA who are switchable 1-5. I'll wait

I appreciate your perspective. RoY is not tied at all to team record though, and never has been. I think that's a useless metric which maybe indicates how a rookie fits better with his team than others, but more often just indicates the rookie is playing with better teammates. Franz and Cade would love to be playing next to Garland, Allen, Siakam or Vanvleet. I personally believe it's more useful to consider a player's projected strengths and weaknesses with how they actually perform in the NBA. A better way of phrasing this is that I think it's important to see which rookies seemingly have major flaws in or questions about their games and which ones can show a significant reduction in those flaws. I recognize most people don't hold that same view though.

And I'm sorry but no, Mobley has not been an elite defender without Allen. He's posting a pretty bad 114.7 defensive rating since Jarett went down. Even playing next to Allen, his defensive assignments are not nearly the toughest, and among the top 10 guys he guards most frequently are Bagley, Nerlens Noel, PJ Tucker, Clint Capela and Royce O'Neale. That may have changed in recent weeks, but you get the picture. Obviously he also floats off ball and plays great help defense, but my point is he is not this insanely good lockdown on-ball guy or elite rim protector that people are suggesting he is. I'd tentatively say he's an elite defensive 4 but he is not close to elite as a full-time 5. Also, he's 'switchable' 1-5 but rare is the occasion when he actually defends primary ball handlers for long stretches. But yes, he is more mobile and versatile than most other guys of his height, and if he can maintain that mobility while also bulking up enough to be a competent 5, then he will be a force to be reckoned with.

He also called Barnes a below average defender, which is hilarious. Dude was was a primary defender on Jokic and Harden for large stretches in the same week. Below average defenders dont get put on those guys. Every defensive stat paints him as a + as well

I took another look at Barnes' stats and I guess he must have come on hard defensively in the last month or so. He was straight-up bad on that end for the first few months, but now the metrics paint him as a solidly average defender, both on the perimeter and at the rim. However, he is put on those assignments because of his insane versatility. That bodes well for his future - currently, he is just a mediocre defender 1-5, but he definitely has the physical toolset to guard all those guys, which is promising.

So Cade's poor efficiency is excused because of his "awful" and "atrocious" teammates and you're "sure he'll get better," but Mobley and Barnes' concerns are called out as not overcoming pre-draft expectations about their game? That's some spin to favor Cade!

In general, I am not concerned about rookie efficiency, but more about how they get their shots. Are they just chucking with a terrible shot selection like Jalen Green for 70% of the season? Or are they actually showing creation off the dribble, the ability to break down set defences and create for others, like Cade? The big questions for Cade IMO were not efficiency (he was already an elite, efficient shooter in college) but AST/TO ratio and shot creation abilities against physically imposing NBA defenders. He has resolved both those questions in my view.

If you want to compare expectations then & now, consider: Cade was the consensus #1 with the highest expectations that he is just meeting. Mobley & Barnes were drafted at #3 & #4, lower expectations. In a re-draft now, both would rank higher than they were picked & Cade would no longer be the consensus #1, so in a sense, he has done worst of them from expectations perspective.

That's just, like, your opinion man. I think Cade still goes #1 without any real debate tbh. I love his long-term outlook and see a clearer path to 1A offensive option for him than either Mobley or Barnes.

[toooskies]

I don’t agree he doesn’t play winning basketball. The turnovers and efficiency things are valid to hold against him, but he plays with awful teammates and seems far and away the best player on the team already. They are atrocious without Cade and at least competitive in most matchups with him.

If anything, I think Cade has done the most of any of the top 3 to overcome doubts about his game. People were concerned about his assist/TO ratio and his ability to create his own shot but I believe he has put to bed those question marks. He has a positive ratio and he has shown the ability to create for himself. He can’t do it efficiently yet but a lot of that is because he commands the most defensive attention due to bad teammates.

The question marks around Scottie and Even haven’t been resolved in a satisfying manner IMO. People were concerned about Barnes’ shot and that his defense was worse than advertised. Barnes doesn’t have a reliable shot outside 10 feet and he is an average defender at best right now, more often than not slightly below average. For Mobley, people were concerned that his seemingly elite defense was being massively buoyed by the presence of Allen in the paint. I think this has been proven true; Mobley looks like a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 and is certainly no defensive anchor.

If Cade can keep this level of play up for the rest of the year, I’d probably give him the award. He’s done more than other rookies to put to bed the questions surrounding him.

So for one, this isn't how ROY voting works. Plus, what has he shown to overcome doubts about his game? He's pretty much exactly what people projected.

ROY isn't a competition to see who's the best compared to what people thought they would be...

Cade has no shot at the award, the Pistons suck and while it's not his fault it 100% factors into the decision. That's even if you ignore the efficiency issues and putrid advanced metrics.

Also, the fact that you called Mobley a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 just proves that you haven't actually watched him play. He's an elite defender regardless of Allen. Yes, he's better when he can play the free safety role at the 4 but he's still elite at the 5. List out all of the 7 footers in the NBA who are switchable 1-5. I'll wait

I appreciate your perspective. RoY is not tied at all to team record though, and never has been. I think that's a useless metric which maybe indicates how a rookie fits better with his team than others, but more often just indicates the rookie is playing with better teammates. Franz and Cade would love to be playing next to Garland, Allen, Siakam or Vanvleet. I personally believe it's more useful to consider a player's projected strengths and weaknesses with how they actually perform in the NBA. A better way of phrasing this is that I think it's important to see which rookies seemingly have major flaws in or questions about their games and which ones can show a significant reduction in those flaws. I recognize most people don't hold that same view though.

And I'm sorry but no, Mobley has not been an elite defender without Allen. He's posting a pretty bad 114.7 defensive rating since Jarett went down. Even playing next to Allen, his defensive assignments are not nearly the toughest, and among the top 10 guys he guards most frequently are Bagley, Nerlens Noel, PJ Tucker, Clint Capela and Royce O'Neale. That may have changed in recent weeks, but you get the picture. Obviously he also floats off ball and plays great help defense, but my point is he is not this insanely good lockdown on-ball guy or elite rim protector that people are suggesting he is. I'd tentatively say he's an elite defensive 4 but he is not close to elite as a full-time 5. Also, he's 'switchable' 1-5 but rare is the occasion when he actually defends primary ball handlers for long stretches. But yes, he is more mobile and versatile than most other guys of his height, and if he can maintain that mobility while also bulking up enough to be a competent 5, then he will be a force to be reckoned with.

He also called Barnes a below average defender, which is hilarious. Dude was was a primary defender on Jokic and Harden for large stretches in the same week. Below average defenders dont get put on those guys. Every defensive stat paints him as a + as well

I took another look at Barnes' stats and I guess he must have come on hard defensively in the last month or so. He was straight-up bad on that end for the first few months, but now the metrics paint him as a solidly average defender, both on the perimeter and at the rim. However, he is put on those assignments because of his insane versatility. That bodes well for his future - currently, he is just a mediocre defender 1-5, but he definitely has the physical toolset to guard all those guys, which is promising.

So Cade's poor efficiency is excused because of his "awful" and "atrocious" teammates and you're "sure he'll get better," but Mobley and Barnes' concerns are called out as not overcoming pre-draft expectations about their game? That's some spin to favor Cade!

In general, I am not concerned about rookie efficiency, but more about how they get their shots. Are they just chucking with a terrible shot selection like Jalen Green for 70% of the season? Or are they actually showing creation off the dribble, the ability to break down set defences and create for others, like Cade? The big questions for Cade IMO were not efficiency (he was already an elite, efficient shooter in college) but AST/TO ratio and shot creation abilities against physically imposing NBA defenders. He has resolved both those questions in my view.

If you want to compare expectations then & now, consider: Cade was the consensus #1 with the highest expectations that he is just meeting. Mobley & Barnes were drafted at #3 & #4, lower expectations. In a re-draft now, both would rank higher than they were picked & Cade would no longer be the consensus #1, so in a sense, he has done worst of them from expectations perspective.

That's just, like, your opinion man. I think Cade still goes #1 without any real debate tbh. I love his long-term outlook and see a clearer path to 1A offensive option for him than either Mobley or Barnes.

If you're taking the best chance at a 1A offensive option, Cade is your best bet and Green might still be the #2. But there's not consensus that he will be that, and if Mobley turns into a 1A then he's probably an all-time great with his defensive ability and future trajectory.

[mademan]

I dont think its a singular opinion that Cade would no longer be the consensus number 1 pick. I'd think that would be the consensus opinion, tbh. Fairly certain both Raps and Cavs would turn down straight up swaps of their rooks for Cade;before pistons fans flame me, I dont think Pistons would make that swap either. Just making it clear that he's no longer a consensus first pick.

[PhilBlackson]

In a redraft I think Mobley likely goes 1st overall.

[jasonxxx102]

I don’t agree he doesn’t play winning basketball. The turnovers and efficiency things are valid to hold against him, but he plays with awful teammates and seems far and away the best player on the team already. They are atrocious without Cade and at least competitive in most matchups with him.

If anything, I think Cade has done the most of any of the top 3 to overcome doubts about his game. People were concerned about his assist/TO ratio and his ability to create his own shot but I believe he has put to bed those question marks. He has a positive ratio and he has shown the ability to create for himself. He can’t do it efficiently yet but a lot of that is because he commands the most defensive attention due to bad teammates.

The question marks around Scottie and Even haven’t been resolved in a satisfying manner IMO. People were concerned about Barnes’ shot and that his defense was worse than advertised. Barnes doesn’t have a reliable shot outside 10 feet and he is an average defender at best right now, more often than not slightly below average. For Mobley, people were concerned that his seemingly elite defense was being massively buoyed by the presence of Allen in the paint. I think this has been proven true; Mobley looks like a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 and is certainly no defensive anchor.

If Cade can keep this level of play up for the rest of the year, I’d probably give him the award. He’s done more than other rookies to put to bed the questions surrounding him.

So for one, this isn't how ROY voting works. Plus, what has he shown to overcome doubts about his game? He's pretty much exactly what people projected.

ROY isn't a competition to see who's the best compared to what people thought they would be...

Cade has no shot at the award, the Pistons suck and while it's not his fault it 100% factors into the decision. That's even if you ignore the efficiency issues and putrid advanced metrics.

Also, the fact that you called Mobley a pedestrian defender when he has to play the 5 just proves that you haven't actually watched him play. He's an elite defender regardless of Allen. Yes, he's better when he can play the free safety role at the 4 but he's still elite at the 5. List out all of the 7 footers in the NBA who are switchable 1-5. I'll wait

I appreciate your perspective. RoY is not tied at all to team record though, and never has been. I think that's a useless metric which maybe indicates how a rookie fits better with his team than others, but more often just indicates the rookie is playing with better teammates. Franz and Cade would love to be playing next to Garland, Allen, Siakam or Vanvleet. I personally believe it's more useful to consider a player's projected strengths and weaknesses with how they actually perform in the NBA. A better way of phrasing this is that I think it's important to see which rookies seemingly have major flaws in or questions about their games and which ones can show a significant reduction in those flaws. I recognize most people don't hold that same view though.

And I'm sorry but no, Mobley has not been an elite defender without Allen. He's posting a pretty bad 114.7 defensive rating since Jarett went down. Even playing next to Allen, his defensive assignments are not nearly the toughest, and among the top 10 guys he guards most frequently are Bagley, Nerlens Noel, PJ Tucker, Clint Capela and Royce O'Neale. That may have changed in recent weeks, but you get the picture. Obviously he also floats off ball and plays great help defense, but my point is he is not this insanely good lockdown on-ball guy or elite rim protector that people are suggesting he is. I'd tentatively say he's an elite defensive 4 but he is not close to elite as a full-time 5. Also, he's 'switchable' 1-5 but rare is the occasion when he actually defends primary ball handlers for long stretches. But yes, he is more mobile and versatile than most other guys of his height, and if he can maintain that mobility while also bulking up enough to be a competent 5, then he will be a force to be reckoned with.

He also called Barnes a below average defender, which is hilarious. Dude was was a primary defender on Jokic and Harden for large stretches in the same week. Below average defenders dont get put on those guys. Every defensive stat paints him as a + as well

I took another look at Barnes' stats and I guess he must have come on hard defensively in the last month or so. He was straight-up bad on that end for the first few months, but now the metrics paint him as a solidly average defender, both on the perimeter and at the rim. However, he is put on those assignments because of his insane versatility. That bodes well for his future - currently, he is just a mediocre defender 1-5, but he definitely has the physical toolset to guard all those guys, which is promising.

So Cade's poor efficiency is excused because of his "awful" and "atrocious" teammates and you're "sure he'll get better," but Mobley and Barnes' concerns are called out as not overcoming pre-draft expectations about their game? That's some spin to favor Cade!

In general, I am not concerned about rookie efficiency, but more about how they get their shots. Are they just chucking with a terrible shot selection like Jalen Green for 70% of the season? Or are they actually showing creation off the dribble, the ability to break down set defences and create for others, like Cade? The big questions for Cade IMO were not efficiency (he was already an elite, efficient shooter in college) but AST/TO ratio and shot creation abilities against physically imposing NBA defenders. He has resolved both those questions in my view.

If you want to compare expectations then & now, consider: Cade was the consensus #1 with the highest expectations that he is just meeting. Mobley & Barnes were drafted at #3 & #4, lower expectations. In a re-draft now, both would rank higher than they were picked & Cade would no longer be the consensus #1, so in a sense, he has done worst of them from expectations perspective.

That's just, like, your opinion man. I think Cade still goes #1 without any real debate tbh. I love his long-term outlook and see a clearer path to 1A offensive option for him than either Mobley or Barnes.

You're citing defensive rating (which is not a great raw advanced stat to begin with) for a 200 something minute sample size. With no context or nuance, that's a bad argument.

I suggest you just watch him play. He is an insanely good defender at all levels and I've honestly never heard anyone say he's mediocre until you posted that.

Just go watch the film and we can break it down. Watch his hips and footwork has he's guarding off the dribble, watch his off ball movement, watch his recovery, watch the rotations, watch how quick he can get up off the floor.

The things you are saying are just not reality if you've really watched him play

Watch the little things. Advanced stats should only be a compliment to watching film and not used independently.

[reanimator]

Redrafts off rookie years are honestly meaningless

[DudetheObscure]

Tre Mann, late entrant

you guys got a good one. he was on my radar in the draft for my knicks. his self creation skills is so fun to watch

Read on Twitter

Tre has scored 20 points in a single Q twice in his last 3 games. I liked what I saw from him in the SL, but I never expected this kind if production from him this year.

Mann with 14 more points in the 1st Q tonight. I know it's one of those "somebody has to score" deals, but he has really shown some growth since the beginning of the season. He has a bright future.

[vtec]

Kuminga is special

[MoneyTalks41890]

you guys got a good one. he was on my radar in the draft for my knicks. his self creation skills is so fun to watch

Read on Twitter

Tre has scored 20 points in a single Q twice in his last 3 games. I liked what I saw from him in the SL, but I never expected this kind if production from him this year.

He’s gotta chill we need to lose this game

Mann with 14 more points in the 1st Q tonight. I know it's one of those "somebody has to score" deals, but he has really shown some growth since the beginning of the season. He has a bright future.

[MotownMadness]

17, 6 and 8 with a +43 for Cade tonight

[whitehops]

17, 6 and 8 with a +44 for Cade tonight

5 turnovers though, way too inefficient to impact winning.

it's a shame too, cade was +43 while the next best +/- was grant at +20.

[vege]

There are still 4 games to go this month, but Cade will likely win his 2nd rookie of the month award.

[MotownMadness]

That is pretty crazy though. Cade gets a +43 in a 21 point win and double that of any of his teammates. The kid can definitely impact winning.

[tmorgan]

That is pretty crazy though. Cade gets a +43 in a 21 point win and double that of any of his teammates. The kid can definitely impact winning.

Not that surprising. Unless Killian is playing well, no Cade means ugly offensive sets. Grant iso, Bey iso, or CoJo dribbling the cover off the ball. Unless it’s a night in which Jerami or Saddiq are locked in, it’s pretty awful to watch.

[BoatsNZones]

Redrafts off rookie years are honestly meaningless

Far from. It is by far the most important information we have on the players.

I would imagine Cade would go first to some GMs, but Mobley to most. I actually think a handful of GMs would now jump at the opportunity to take Kuminga 3rd (some 2nd, but likely no lower than 4-5).

I do think Mobley is the best now and it is likely to stay that way, but man was there some real talent this year.

[reanimator]

Redrafts off rookie years are honestly meaningless

Far from. It is by far the most important information we have on the players.

I would imagine Cade would go first to some GMs, but Mobley to most. I actually think a handful of GMs would now jump at the opportunity to take Kuminga 3rd (some 2nd, but likely no lower than 4-5).

I do think Mobley is the best now and it is likely to stay that way, but man was there some real talent this year.

Post past drafts where the 1st year, 5th year, and 10th year redrafts would look exactly the same. I'd guess that in the majority of drafts there would be seismic shifts at each point.

[BoatsNZones]

Redrafts off rookie years are honestly meaningless

Far from. It is by far the most important information we have on the players.

I would imagine Cade would go first to some GMs, but Mobley to most. I actually think a handful of GMs would now jump at the opportunity to take Kuminga 3rd (some 2nd, but likely no lower than 4-5).

I do think Mobley is the best now and it is likely to stay that way, but man was there some real talent this year.

Post past drafts where the 1st year, 5th year, and 10th year redrafts would look exactly the same. I'd guess that in the majority of drafts there would be seismic shifts at each point.

I would say any "seismic" shift comes after year 1 (you have a very good idea of their current ability against pros, their potential and their mind set). After year 3 you would see another large adjustment, and anything beyond would largely be tinkering in most seasons (excluding injured players).

The idea of a 1st year redraft being "meaningless" is obviously nonsense.

[HiRez]

Rookie tracker through Mar. 23.

For EPM, Wagner slowly increasing his lead offensively while Mobley retains the big defensive lead he's had all year.