Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[hongdayuan]

Apparently China is scamming Spain with coronavirus tests that don't even work 30% of the time promising a 80% accuracy.

Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien

Los laboratorios de microbiología comunican que las pruebas que adquirió el Gobierno tienen una sensibilidad del 30% cuando deberían superar el 80%

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

[Ville5]

Estonia had 404 cases in total up to yesterday. Today, the new number is 538. That's an increase of 33% in one day. Plus, I saw a tweet about a big sale in department stores yesterday before closing everything down today. That will surely increase the numbers. And yeah, 500 cases might not seem like much but when a country has a population of 1.3 mil, it's a lot.

As someone who lives in Latvia, I'm still hoping for the best. Our total number is 244 today, with 20-30 new cases per day. Most stores and even some restaurants are still open but people do practice social distancing in general. Our prime minister and many other government officials are in self-isolation after having meetings with one MP who later turned out to be infected. Our government really tries to lead by example and I appreciate that.

the information about Estonia is a little bit skewed. The increase is 2 days of data (there was a change in the system so they did not update it for one day) and they increased testing to about 2 times as much in the past few days (was about 400-500 tests per day only to old people, now is about 1000 per day and increasing with more looser rules on who could be tested). Also the sale was actually one store that was claimed to be "miscommunication" that was supposed to be only e-store campaign and the store was closed very quickly. But Estonian media is an expert on blowing everything out of proportion and making clickbait headlines.

That's good to hear, I didn't know it was two days of data.

[LKN]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I read where some people were predicting over 7 million claims, so this wasn't as bad. The Futures actually went from down 450 to slightly positive for a minute.

The bottom line is that we will see numbers like these continue. We are putting the economy on pause, something that has never been done before. We had an amazing economy overall prior to the virus, so the fundamentals are solid. There is actually a good opportunity for those with disposable income, and a long-term view, to invest in the market.

Current prices are way too high - it will drop more. I've still got a good amount of cash sidelined waiting.

[BadMofoPimp]

I saw on CBS this morning that two US sites scientists are confident they are on the cusp of a vaccine. One of them in Texas said they are confident they have a vaccine already. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[LKN]

I saw on CBS this morning that two US sites scientists are confident they are on the cusp of a vaccine. One of them in Texas said they are confident they have a vaccine already. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

There's been companies saying that for weeks. I think there's a decent chance we'll get one... however it's going to take 12-18 months even if they develop one now.

Testing is incredibly important. You can't just start handing out a vaccine to the whole population without knowing what the potential for adverse side effects are.

Still - good news and encouraging - just tempering expectations a little bit.

[Slava]

Apparently China is scamming Spain with coronavirus tests that don't even work 30% of the time promising a 80% accuracy.

Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien

Los laboratorios de microbiología comunican que las pruebas que adquirió el Gobierno tienen una sensibilidad del 30% cuando deberían superar el 80%

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

They are talking about a sensitivity of 30% when it should be 80% to be fit for use according to the Spanish authorities.

Sensitivity is basically Probability(Positive test given infection) = true positives/(true positives + false negatives).

[zonedefense]

How in the world is Germany able to perform 500k tests a week? More than the rest of europe combined. More than the US and South Korea combined. Any poster from Germany that can explain the numbers?

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/26/world/europe/26reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tests.html

[Dirk]

Apparently China is scamming Spain with coronavirus tests that don't even work 30% of the time promising a 80% accuracy.

Los test rápidos de coronavirus comprados en China no funcionan bien

Los laboratorios de microbiología comunican que las pruebas que adquirió el Gobierno tienen una sensibilidad del 30% cuando deberían superar el 80%

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

This isn't a Chinese Government scam. It's a Chinese Company scam.

And Spanish Government incompetence. They bought 340.000 faulty tests. From a Chinese Company that the Chinese government claims "doesn't have a license".

The goal would be for the rapid tests to filter out cases. Only the negative tests would require PCR.

Tests should have accuracy of 80%
In reality, their accuracy is only of 30%

You do the rapid tests. If you are positive. You are positive. Negative tests would still require PCR, but the load on the labs would be decreased with accurate enough rapid tests.

Given that the accuracy of this test is only 30%, they are a complete waste of time and resources. They are throwing them in the garbage bin. They are returning them, according to the Minister of Health.

The Spanish government just ordered 420 Million Euros worth of equipment from China. So it's kind of unfortunate that this is in the news.

The Chinese embassy were quick to tweet out that the company who sold the tests doesn't have a license.

Read on Twitter

I know the Spanish government have been incompetent and given the tragic numbers... it's disturbing that they got scammed here.

[hongdayuan]

Apparently China is scamming Spain with coronavirus tests that don't even work 30% of the time promising a 80% accuracy.



https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

They are talking about a sensitivity of 30% when it should be 80% to be fit for use according to the Spanish authorities.

Sensitivity is basically Probability(Positive test given disease) = true positives/(true positives + false negatives).

in that case you are correct that's bad. as Dirk said below, i wouldn't call this scam by china, but scam by a chinese company.

[Slava]

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

They are talking about a sensitivity of 30% when it should be 80% to be fit for use according to the Spanish authorities.

Sensitivity is basically Probability(Positive test given disease) = true positives/(true positives + false negatives).

in that case you are correct that's bad. as Dirk said below, i wouldn't call this scam by china, but scam by a chinese company.

Agreed, I copied the title from reddit, which is not the best place.

[hongdayuan]

Apparently China is scamming Spain with coronavirus tests that don't even work 30% of the time promising a 80% accuracy.



https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

This isn't a Chinese Government scam. It's a Chinese Company scam.

And Spanish Government incompetence. They bought 340.000 faulty tests. From a Chinese Company that the Chinese government claims "doesn't have a license".

The goal would be for the rapid tests to filter out cases. Only the negative tests would require PCR.

Tests should have accuracy of 80%
In reality, their accuracy is only of 30%

You do the rapid tests. If you are positive. You are positive. Negative tests would still require PCR, but the load on the labs would be decreased with accurate enough rapid tests.

Given that the accuracy of this test is only 30%, they are a complete waste of time and resources. They are throwing them in the garbage bin. They are returning them, according to the Minister of Health.

The Spanish government just ordered 420 Million Euros worth of equipment from China. So it's kind of unfortunate that this is in the news.

The Chinese embassy were quick to tweet out that the company who sold the tests doesn't have a license.

Read on Twitter

I know the Spanish government have been incompetent and given the tragic numbers... it's disturbing that they got scammed here.

this is really unfortunate. tbh even chinese citizens typically avoid certain supplies from chinese companies due to quality concerns. I would have thought that a federal government will have their routes to acquire proper products from a licenced company, regardless the company's origin, but i can't really blame the spanish government here during this extreme time.

[BadMofoPimp]

I saw on CBS this morning that two US sites scientists are confident they are on the cusp of a vaccine. One of them in Texas said they are confident they have a vaccine already. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

There's been companies saying that for weeks. I think there's a decent chance we'll get one... however it's going to take 12-18 months even if they develop one now.

Testing is incredibly important. You can't just start handing out a vaccine to the whole population without knowing what the potential for adverse side effects are.

Still - good news and encouraging - just tempering expectations a little bit.

That is during a regular situation. I bet during a global pandemic, the vaccine will take a quarter if not less of that time if successful tests become feasible. Especially, when the new vaccine is based off existing Vaccines for Sars or Mers which have already been through those tests. This is a uniques situation, not one where people take their time going through monthly protocols. I bet we have a vaccine being passed out within 3 months or less with treatments probably much sooner than that.

[Swish1906]

How in the world is Germany able to perform 500k tests a week? More than the rest of europe combined. More than the US and South Korea combined. Any poster from Germany that can explain the numbers?

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/26/world/europe/26reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tests.html

My guess is general medical infrastructure, tons of local health departments with labs etc.

My brothers family in germany got yesterday the call of a friend they had contact last week that he is positive. My sister in law and my niece had mild flu symptoms since 2-3 days too. They called their family doctor, told it and the doctor immediately had four tests for the entire family available. They not even had to drive to the central testing side downtown. And today 24h later they got the call from the doctor that the tests are negative. During that 24h they stayed home and even let their dog do his business in the backyard in case the have it.

And that is one of the hardest hit cities (almost 400 cases/300000 people) in the hardest hit state (NRW)

[Dirk]

Spain
Nursing homes (there are some really horror stories)

517 dead
1.600 infected
390.000 people are in nursing homes in Spain

Health Workers
Almost 6000 infected
That's estimated to be 14% of the total positive cases

Those rapid tests referenced were to be used on health workers and in nursing homes.

[DowJones]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I read where some people were predicting over 7 million claims, so this wasn't as bad. The Futures actually went from down 450 to slightly positive for a minute.

The bottom line is that we will see numbers like these continue. We are putting the economy on pause, something that has never been done before. We had an amazing economy overall prior to the virus, so the fundamentals are solid. There is actually a good opportunity for those with disposable income, and a long-term view, to invest in the market.

Current prices are way too high - it will drop more. I've still got a good amount of cash sidelined waiting.

Timing the market is tough and really should only be done by those that spend a great deal of time studying the market and even then it is very tough. If you have disposable income, and you don't spend a ton of time studying the market, you should really be dollar-cost averaging into index funds. Really that is the best bet for almost anyone reading this. As Warren Buffet said, it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

[Badonkadonk]

How in the world is Germany able to perform 500k tests a week? More than the rest of europe combined. More than the US and South Korea combined. Any poster from Germany that can explain the numbers?

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/26/world/europe/26reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tests.html

German industry is famed for its efficiency and isn't burdened by a process that prioritizes how new tech and IP can be capitalized on by large corporations. Not the whole answer, but a big part of it.

[Pointgod]

Yikes

Read on Twitter

[TMU]

Apparently China is scamming Spain with coronavirus tests that don't even work 30% of the time promising a 80% accuracy.



https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

I know during this time, ppl who has a Chinese user name like myself will be taken as a bot, but I just have to point something out here.

The article (according to your translation) is basically complaining about claimed 80% accuracy vs actual accuracy of 70%. Depending on sample size and administered procedures, I’m not sure if we can call this “scamming”. Further in the article it described this test kit as a 15 minute rapid screening test, intended to only direct highly suspect samples to PCR test and hopefully reduce the testing load.

My Spanish is zero so I can’t tell if the failed tests are producing false negatives, false positives, or do not work at all. But false positives will not affect final PCR diagnosis.

This isn't a Chinese Government scam. It's a Chinese Company scam.

And Spanish Government incompetence. They bought 340.000 faulty tests. From a Chinese Company that the Chinese government claims "doesn't have a license".

The goal would be for the rapid tests to filter out cases. Only the negative tests would require PCR.

Tests should have accuracy of 80%
In reality, their accuracy is only of 30%

You do the rapid tests. If you are positive. You are positive. Negative tests would still require PCR, but the load on the labs would be decreased with accurate enough rapid tests.

Given that the accuracy of this test is only 30%, they are a complete waste of time and resources. They are throwing them in the garbage bin. They are returning them, according to the Minister of Health.

The Spanish government just ordered 420 Million Euros worth of equipment from China. So it's kind of unfortunate that this is in the news.

The Chinese embassy were quick to tweet out that the company who sold the tests doesn't have a license.

Read on Twitter

I know the Spanish government have been incompetent and given the tragic numbers... it's disturbing that they got scammed here.

That's absolutely disgusting. I feel for the Spanish government. It's crazy how there's always a group of people trying to exploit vulnerable people in times like this. I hope there will be major reparation against that company. This isn't the time to pull major pranks against humanity.

[LKN]

I read where some people were predicting over 7 million claims, so this wasn't as bad. The Futures actually went from down 450 to slightly positive for a minute.

The bottom line is that we will see numbers like these continue. We are putting the economy on pause, something that has never been done before. We had an amazing economy overall prior to the virus, so the fundamentals are solid. There is actually a good opportunity for those with disposable income, and a long-term view, to invest in the market.

Current prices are way too high - it will drop more. I've still got a good amount of cash sidelined waiting.

Timing the market is tough and really should only be done by those that spend a great deal of time studying the market and even then it is very tough. If you have disposable income, and you don't spend a ton of time studying the market, you should really be dollar-cost averaging into index funds. Really that is the best bet for almost anyone reading this. As Warren Buffet said, it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

Totally agree and that's what I do. I follow the Bogle investment strategy for the most part (I use Schwab so SCHB, SCHF, etc).... also buy VOO.

I dabble with some "play money" in individual stocks but for the most part it's total market/bond funds and index funds.

I also NEVER touch my 401K and IRAs

I do happen to have some cash that I'm holding right now - worst case is I end up with some cash and stocks are more expensive later (I'm also holding it as I may look into buying distressed property).


As my dad once told me "timing the market isn't a thing. If there was a way to reliably time the market then no one would be able to time the market"

[Pharmcat]

I read where some people were predicting over 7 million claims, so this wasn't as bad. The Futures actually went from down 450 to slightly positive for a minute.

The bottom line is that we will see numbers like these continue. We are putting the economy on pause, something that has never been done before. We had an amazing economy overall prior to the virus, so the fundamentals are solid. There is actually a good opportunity for those with disposable income, and a long-term view, to invest in the market.

Current prices are way too high - it will drop more. I've still got a good amount of cash sidelined waiting.

Timing the market is tough and really should only be done by those that spend a great deal of time studying the market and even then it is very tough. If you have disposable income, and you don't spend a ton of time studying the market, you should really be dollar-cost averaging into index funds. Really that is the best bet for almost anyone reading this. As Warren Buffet said, it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

Even with terrible numbers the market is on fire. The prez must have the magic touch people believe in