2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 3)

[yoyoboy]

Thought it would be interesting to compare how the top rookies are faring in various all-in-one metrics.

EPM:
Mobley: +2.9
Wagner: +1.3
Cunningham: +0.3
Barnes: +0.2
Duarte: +0.2
Sengun: -0.1
Mitchell: -0.2
Suggs: -1.9
Giddey: -2.1
Green: -5.2

RAPTOR:
Sengun: +2.6
Mobley: +1.8
Barnes: +1.3
Wagner: +1.3
Duarte: +0.4
Mitchell: -0.2
Suggs: -1.7
Cunningham: -3.4
Giddey: -3.4
Green: -9.8

RAPM:
Duarte: +0.67
Wagner: +0.19
Mobley: +0.18
Cunningham: -0.09
Mitchell: -0.17
Suggs: -0.58
Barnes: -1.1
Sengun: -1.89
Giddey: -2.25
Green: -6.81

Luck-Adjusted RAPM:
Duarte: +1.79
Mobley: +0.64
Mitchell: +0.04
Cunningham: -0.33
Wagner: -0.81
Suggs: -0.43
Barnes: -0.71
Sengun: -2.64
Green: -3.43
Giddey: -4.03

BPM:
Sengun: +2.0
Mobley: +1.0
Barnes: +0.3
Wagner: -0.7
Duarte: -2.3
Giddey: -2.4
Cunningham: -3.0
Mitchell: -3.7
Green: -5.8
Suggs: -6.8

Average Rank:
1. Mobley - 2.0
2. Wagner - 3.4
3. Duarte - 3.4
4. Barnes - 4.6
5. Sengun - 4.8
6. Cunningham - 5.2
7. Mitchell - 5.8
8. Suggs - 7.4
9. Giddey - 8.6
10. Green - 9.6

How accurate does everyone find that above list compared to their own ranking of the rookies?

[MrBigShot]

Cade's scoring is on a huge upswing. Turnover is still a huge issue.

A game with 7 turnover is not efficient. A single turnover basically results in a net ~2.12 pt swing on average (~1.06 point on offense based on league average 106 offensive efficiency, 1.06 the other way on average). It is the single most costly mistake in basketball.

My official position is still that Cade is not a point forward, just a scoring shooting guard. Same positions since pre-draft.

Guy who more or less Cade a bust like 10 games in maybe realizing you can't assess how good a player will be after a few weeks, shocker. The term efficiency in basketball is jargon for how well a player utilizes their shot opportunities to score, i.e. shooting splits and TS%. It has nothing to do with turnovers. Simultaneously, in the colloquial sense of the word efficient, a turnover is not efficient way to use a possession.

You think he is just a scoring guard because you put too much emphasis on turnovers in assessing a rookie's ability as a ball handler/playmaker and don't actually watch him play. Cade has been our primary ball handler and playmaker for a while now. The playmaking ability, handle, ability to break down the defense off the dribble, court vision ect... is there. Turnovers are a huge issue for him right now but he's a rookie learning the ropes. He's got plenty of time to tighten up his handle and address that weakness.

[normgod6]

Thought it would be interesting to compare how the top rookies are faring in various all-in-one metrics.

EPM:
Mobley: +2.9
Wagner: +1.3
Cunningham: +0.3
Barnes: +0.2
Duarte: +0.2
Sengun: -0.1
Mitchell: -0.2
Suggs: -1.9
Giddey: -2.1
Green: -5.2

RAPTOR:
Sengun: +2.6
Mobley: +1.8
Barnes: +1.3
Wagner: +1.3
Duarte: +0.4
Mitchell: -0.2
Suggs: -1.7
Cunningham: -3.4
Giddey: -3.4
Green: -9.8

RAPM:
Duarte: +0.67
Wagner: +0.19
Mobley: +0.18
Cunningham: -0.09
Mitchell: -0.17
Suggs: -0.58
Barnes: -1.1
Sengun: -1.89
Giddey: -2.25
Green: -6.81

Luck-Adjusted RAPM:
Duarte: +1.79
Mobley: +0.64
Mitchell: +0.04
Cunningham: -0.33
Wagner: -0.81
Suggs: -0.43
Barnes: -0.71
Sengun: -2.64
Green: -3.43
Giddey: -4.03

BPM:
Sengun: +2.0
Mobley: +1.0
Barnes: +0.3
Wagner: -0.7
Duarte: -2.3
Giddey: -2.4
Cunningham: -3.0
Mitchell: -3.7
Green: -5.8
Suggs: -6.8

Average Rank:
1. Mobley - 2.0
2. Wagner - 3.4
3. Duarte - 3.4
4. Barnes - 4.6
5. Sengun - 4.8
6. Cunningham - 5.2
7. Mitchell - 5.8
8. Suggs - 7.4
9. Giddey - 8.6
10. Green - 9.6

How accurate does everyone find that above list compared to their own ranking of the rookies?

RAPM is worthless at this small of a sample size. In fact, it's probably worse then useless because it's actively misleading at this small of a sample size. There just hasn't been enough games to smooth out all the noise.

[JonFromVA]

Cade's scoring is on a huge upswing. Turnover is still a huge issue.

A game with 7 turnover is not efficient. A single turnover basically results in a net ~2.12 pt swing on average (~1.06 point on offense based on league average 106 offensive efficiency, 1.06 the other way on average). It is the single most costly mistake in basketball.

My official position is still that Cade is not a point forward, just a scoring shooting guard. Same positions since pre-draft.

Guy who more or less Cade a bust like 10 games in maybe realizing you can't assess how good a player will be after a few weeks, shocker. The term efficiency in basketball is jargon for how well a player utilizes their shot opportunities to score, i.e. shooting splits and TS%. It has nothing to do with turnovers. Simultaneously, in the colloquial sense of the word efficient, a turnover is not efficient way to use a possession.

You think he is just a scoring guard because you put too much emphasis on turnovers in assessing a rookie's ability as a ball handler/playmaker and don't actually watch him play. Cade has been our primary ball handler and playmaker for a while now. The playmaking ability, handle, ability to break down the defense off the dribble, court vision ect... is there. Turnovers are a huge issue for him right now but he's a rookie learning the ropes. He's got plenty of time to tighten up his handle and address that weakness.

In reality, Cade isn't going to have much success as a primary playmaker unless he reduces the turnovers. Does he have plenty of time to improve? He sure should.

Basically both you guys are correct. The difference is between what he's shown to date and what he might become.

[zaymon]

Thought it would be interesting to compare how the top rookies are faring in various all-in-one metrics.

EPM:
Mobley: +2.9
Wagner: +1.3
Cunningham: +0.3
Barnes: +0.2
Duarte: +0.2
Sengun: -0.1
Mitchell: -0.2
Suggs: -1.9
Giddey: -2.1
Green: -5.2

RAPTOR:
Sengun: +2.6
Mobley: +1.8
Barnes: +1.3
Wagner: +1.3
Duarte: +0.4
Mitchell: -0.2
Suggs: -1.7
Cunningham: -3.4
Giddey: -3.4
Green: -9.8

RAPM:
Duarte: +0.67
Wagner: +0.19
Mobley: +0.18
Cunningham: -0.09
Mitchell: -0.17
Suggs: -0.58
Barnes: -1.1
Sengun: -1.89
Giddey: -2.25
Green: -6.81

Luck-Adjusted RAPM:
Duarte: +1.79
Mobley: +0.64
Mitchell: +0.04
Cunningham: -0.33
Wagner: -0.81
Suggs: -0.43
Barnes: -0.71
Sengun: -2.64
Green: -3.43
Giddey: -4.03

BPM:
Sengun: +2.0
Mobley: +1.0
Barnes: +0.3
Wagner: -0.7
Duarte: -2.3
Giddey: -2.4
Cunningham: -3.0
Mitchell: -3.7
Green: -5.8
Suggs: -6.8

Average Rank:
1. Mobley - 2.0
2. Wagner - 3.4
3. Duarte - 3.4
4. Barnes - 4.6
5. Sengun - 4.8
6. Cunningham - 5.2
7. Mitchell - 5.8
8. Suggs - 7.4
9. Giddey - 8.6
10. Green - 9.6

How accurate does everyone find that above list compared to their own ranking of the rookies?

Well it looks less like hype and more like reality. I would agree with this average ranking more than any other ranking i saw.

[The Moose]

Watch on YouTube

[Gusto1903]

Alperen Sengun has impressed me the last few games, god damn. He is so slick with the ball in his hand. Hope he gets the trust from the org and gets the minutes and the freedom to play his game.

[basketballRob]

Alperen Sengun has impressed me the last few games, god damn. He is so slick with the ball in his hand. Hope he gets the trust from the org and gets the minutes and the freedom to play his game.

Looks like they're shopping Wood.

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[breezypeezy]

Of course with Pistons losing Grants 16 fga's a night, Cade is poised to continue his increase in those slash line stats that were already rising due to him getting his shot dialed in.
The t.o.'s will be the next challenge for him to rein in.
I would not bet against this guy, I think he lowers the t.o.s and still increases that production, percentages, boards, assists and steal right down the line.
Grant being out gives him full reign, invaluable experience for a rook he's going to get.

[CptCrunch]

Cade's scoring is on a huge upswing. Turnover is still a huge issue.

A game with 7 turnover is not efficient. A single turnover basically results in a net ~2.12 pt swing on average (~1.06 point on offense based on league average 106 offensive efficiency, 1.06 the other way on average). It is the single most costly mistake in basketball.

My official position is still that Cade is not a point forward, just a scoring shooting guard. Same positions since pre-draft.

Guy who more or less Cade a bust like 10 games in maybe realizing you can't assess how good a player will be after a few weeks, shocker. The term efficiency in basketball is jargon for how well a player utilizes their shot opportunities to score, i.e. shooting splits and TS%. It has nothing to do with turnovers. Simultaneously, in the colloquial sense of the word efficient, a turnover is not efficient way to use a possession.

You think he is just a scoring guard because you put too much emphasis on turnovers in assessing a rookie's ability as a ball handler/playmaker and don't actually watch him play. Cade has been our primary ball handler and playmaker for a while now. The playmaking ability, handle, ability to break down the defense off the dribble, court vision ect... is there. Turnovers are a huge issue for him right now but he's a rookie learning the ropes. He's got plenty of time to tighten up his handle and address that weakness.

Try reading a bit more next time. Take off the blinders and read my full argument. I never insinuated that Cade was a bust after 10 games. I have always insinuated (here and NBA-draft forum pre-draft) that Mobley was the best player this year with Cade being the #4 behind Mobley, Barnes and Suggs (wrong on #3 so far).

I have challenged the notation that Cade is a point forward ala Luka. He was marketed by the media as a generational point forward will one be a drop in on day and and elevate a team to the forefront of offensive efficiency day one. This has and will always be an laughable assertion . I'll give you a refresher, the gist of the argument is that if Cade isn't a point forward, he isn't a #1 pick, deserving #3-6 pick, sure.

[basketballRob]

Cade's scoring is on a huge upswing. Turnover is still a huge issue.

A game with 7 turnover is not efficient. A single turnover basically results in a net ~2.12 pt swing on average (~1.06 point on offense based on league average 106 offensive efficiency, 1.06 the other way on average). It is the single most costly mistake in basketball.

My official position is still that Cade is not a point forward, just a scoring shooting guard. Same positions since pre-draft.

Guy who more or less Cade a bust like 10 games in maybe realizing you can't assess how good a player will be after a few weeks, shocker. The term efficiency in basketball is jargon for how well a player utilizes their shot opportunities to score, i.e. shooting splits and TS%. It has nothing to do with turnovers. Simultaneously, in the colloquial sense of the word efficient, a turnover is not efficient way to use a possession.

You think he is just a scoring guard because you put too much emphasis on turnovers in assessing a rookie's ability as a ball handler/playmaker and don't actually watch him play. Cade has been our primary ball handler and playmaker for a while now. The playmaking ability, handle, ability to break down the defense off the dribble, court vision ect... is there. Turnovers are a huge issue for him right now but he's a rookie learning the ropes. He's got plenty of time to tighten up his handle and address that weakness.

Try reading a bit more next time. Take off the blinders and read my full argument. I never insinuated that Cade was a bust after 10 games. I have always insinuated (here and NBA-draft forum pre-draft) that Mobley was the best player this year with Cade being the #4 behind Mobley, Barnes and Suggs (wrong on #3 so far).

I have challenged the notation that Cade is a point forward ala Luka. He was marketed by the media as a generational point forward will one be a drop in on day and and elevate a team to the forefront of offensive efficiency day one. This has and will always be an laughable assertion . I'll give you a refresher, the gist of the argument is that if Cade isn't a point forward, he isn't a #1 pick, deserving #3-6 pick, sure.

I thought Cade was a guard?

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[OrlMagic05]

This is why alot of fans HATE Raptor fans...seriously? Why the need to always rag on other teams best player to try to make your guy look better?

I brought this up a few days ago and Raptor fans came after me lol But this is just another example of how some (NOT ALL) Raptor fans put others down to make Barnes look amazing. Its like they need validation on how good Barnes. I actually love Barnes and wanted the Magic to draft him.

Anyway, this ROY race is a lot closer than what most fans think. Cade is looking like he is about to run off with it. Last 7 games...

Cade Cunningham- 18.2PPG 44%FG 43%3P% 7reb 4ast 1.1st
Franz Wagner- 17.2ppg 46%FG 38%3p% 5Reb 4.7ast 1.6st
Scottie Barnes- 16.5ppg 51%FG 39%3P% 7reb 3ast 1.4stl
Evan Mobley- 13ppg 44%FG 38%3P% 8.5reb 2.7ast 2.7blk

You are another idiot if you think the post about Allen was actually post about Barnes. Did not your mama tell you thou shalt not judge? Why cannot Mobley and Allen be discussed without bringing any other player from another team?

Exhibit A of how some Raptor fans are. Didnt your mama tell you to not be an A$$hole?

[bstein14]

Cade's scoring is on a huge upswing. Turnover is still a huge issue.

A game with 7 turnover is not efficient. A single turnover basically results in a net ~2.12 pt swing on average (~1.06 point on offense based on league average 106 offensive efficiency, 1.06 the other way on average). It is the single most costly mistake in basketball.

My official position is still that Cade is not a point forward, just a scoring shooting guard. Same positions since pre-draft.

Guy who more or less Cade a bust like 10 games in maybe realizing you can't assess how good a player will be after a few weeks, shocker. The term efficiency in basketball is jargon for how well a player utilizes their shot opportunities to score, i.e. shooting splits and TS%. It has nothing to do with turnovers. Simultaneously, in the colloquial sense of the word efficient, a turnover is not efficient way to use a possession.

You think he is just a scoring guard because you put too much emphasis on turnovers in assessing a rookie's ability as a ball handler/playmaker and don't actually watch him play. Cade has been our primary ball handler and playmaker for a while now. The playmaking ability, handle, ability to break down the defense off the dribble, court vision ect... is there. Turnovers are a huge issue for him right now but he's a rookie learning the ropes. He's got plenty of time to tighten up his handle and address that weakness.

In reality, Cade isn't going to have much success as a primary playmaker unless he reduces the turnovers. Does he have plenty of time to improve? He sure should.

Basically both you guys are correct. The difference is between what he's shown to date and what he might become.

As a Pistons fans who has seen every Cade game and every TO, his play making and decision making is 100% not there from day one. He tries to create but often telegraphs too much or has dribbled himself into a spot where he tries to make a tough cross court pass that a defender has enough time to get into that passing lane. He has been bad in this regard for sure but its something you often see from high usage rookies on bad teams because they are also a focal point of the defense.

That said, I have no doubt he'll figure it out with time. Maybe not this year, because with losing Grant for the next 6 weeks even more of the focus will be on Cade and even more of the ball handling and creating will be on Cade so he is likely to stay close to 4 TO per game this season. LeBron and Luka both started out as high usage and high TO rookies and they never really decreased those TO numbers but upped overall assists. I would expect a similar thing will happen with Cade where he eventually gets about 6 assists per game with about 3 TOs per game. His 3.9 TO per game he's getting now will decline slightly next year as he figures out the league and his teammates a bit more and his assists will go up a bit.

[BlazersBroncos]

Just watched those Sengun highlights against MIL. That was pure basketball poetry. What a game.

HOU got such a steal.

[JonFromVA]

Guy who more or less Cade a bust like 10 games in maybe realizing you can't assess how good a player will be after a few weeks, shocker. The term efficiency in basketball is jargon for how well a player utilizes their shot opportunities to score, i.e. shooting splits and TS%. It has nothing to do with turnovers. Simultaneously, in the colloquial sense of the word efficient, a turnover is not efficient way to use a possession.

You think he is just a scoring guard because you put too much emphasis on turnovers in assessing a rookie's ability as a ball handler/playmaker and don't actually watch him play. Cade has been our primary ball handler and playmaker for a while now. The playmaking ability, handle, ability to break down the defense off the dribble, court vision ect... is there. Turnovers are a huge issue for him right now but he's a rookie learning the ropes. He's got plenty of time to tighten up his handle and address that weakness.

In reality, Cade isn't going to have much success as a primary playmaker unless he reduces the turnovers. Does he have plenty of time to improve? He sure should.

Basically both you guys are correct. The difference is between what he's shown to date and what he might become.

As a Pistons fans who has seen every Cade game and every TO, his play making and decision making is 100% not there from day one. He tries to create but often telegraphs too much or has dribbled himself into a spot where he tries to make a tough cross court pass that a defender has enough time to get into that passing lane. He has been bad in this regard for sure but its something you often see from high usage rookies on bad teams because they are also a focal point of the defense.

That said, I have no doubt he'll figure it out with time. Maybe not this year, because with losing Grant for the next 6 weeks even more of the focus will be on Cade and even more of the ball handling and creating will be on Cade so he is likely to stay close to 4 TO per game this season. LeBron and Luka both started out as high usage and high TO rookies and they never really decreased those TO numbers but upped overall assists. I would expect a similar thing will happen with Cade where he eventually gets about 6 assists per game with about 3 TOs per game. His 3.9 TO per game he's getting now will decline slightly next year as he figures out the league and his teammates a bit more and his assists will go up a bit.

LeBron and Luka have high turnover numbers in large part because they have such a high usage due to their scoring load and it's still a lot closer to 2:1 than 1:1.

If I was a Piston's or a Cade fan, I'd be keeping an eye on the monthly splits and watching his trends. Cade's usage has risen so far in December over these first 5 games, but his assists haven't increased, just his turnovers. So that's trending the wrong way for the moment.

Anyway, one of the differences between a point-forward and a point-guard is that a point-forward can still play with a point-guard or a combo-guard and doesn't have ALL the playmaking responsibilities. LeBron has generally played with other guys who shared the playmaking and were expected to take more care of the ball.

So, it's hardly a disaster for Cade if he's not actually the PG of the Pistons ... it just means you guys need more from Killian Hayes or whoever gets the job.

btw, how's Cade been on catch & shoot opportunities so far? If those shots have been easier for him, that's another reason to want to play him off the ball at times.

[MotownMadness]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[OrlMagic05]

Watch on YouTube

Franz last 7 games- 19ppg 52%FG 50%3pt 5reb 4ast 1.4stls Talk about efficiency!

How is he not in everyone's top 2 right now?

[bstein14]

In reality, Cade isn't going to have much success as a primary playmaker unless he reduces the turnovers. Does he have plenty of time to improve? He sure should.

Basically both you guys are correct. The difference is between what he's shown to date and what he might become.

As a Pistons fans who has seen every Cade game and every TO, his play making and decision making is 100% not there from day one. He tries to create but often telegraphs too much or has dribbled himself into a spot where he tries to make a tough cross court pass that a defender has enough time to get into that passing lane. He has been bad in this regard for sure but its something you often see from high usage rookies on bad teams because they are also a focal point of the defense.

That said, I have no doubt he'll figure it out with time. Maybe not this year, because with losing Grant for the next 6 weeks even more of the focus will be on Cade and even more of the ball handling and creating will be on Cade so he is likely to stay close to 4 TO per game this season. LeBron and Luka both started out as high usage and high TO rookies and they never really decreased those TO numbers but upped overall assists. I would expect a similar thing will happen with Cade where he eventually gets about 6 assists per game with about 3 TOs per game. His 3.9 TO per game he's getting now will decline slightly next year as he figures out the league and his teammates a bit more and his assists will go up a bit.

LeBron and Luka have high turnover numbers in large part because they have such a high usage due to their scoring load and it's still a lot closer to 2:1 than 1:1.

If I was a Piston's or a Cade fan, I'd be keeping an eye on the monthly splits and watching his trends. Cade's usage has risen so far in December over these first 5 games, but his assists haven't increased, just his turnovers. So that's trending the wrong way for the moment.

Anyway, one of the differences between a point-forward and a point-guard is that a point-forward can still play with a point-guard or a combo-guard and doesn't have ALL the playmaking responsibilities. LeBron has generally played with other guys who shared the playmaking and were expected to take more care of the ball.

So, it's hardly a disaster for Cade if he's not actually the PG of the Pistons ... it just means you guys need more from Killian Hayes or whoever gets the job.

btw, how's Cade been on catch & shoot opportunities so far? If those shots have been easier for him, that's another reason to want to play him off the ball at times.

31.7% of his overall FGAs are catch and shoot 3 pointers and he makes 38.6% of those. 15.9% of his overall FGAs are off the dribble 3 point shots and he only makes about 20% of those.

6.9% of his overall FGAs are catch and shoot 2 pointers and he only makes 27.3% of those attempts. 45.4% of his overall FGAs are 2 point shots off the dribble and he makes about 46% of those. So much better off the dribble on 2 point shots and much better catch and shoot on 3 pointers.

[basketballRob]

In 10 years they'll have the 2021 draft ranked up there with the best ever.

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[HardenGoat]

Just watched those Sengun highlights against MIL. That was pure basketball poetry. What a game.

HOU got such a steal.

2022 first round draft pick to Oklahoma City
Detroit's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City (via Houston) protected for selections 1-16 in 2022, 1-18 in 2023, 1-18 in 2024, 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026 and 1-9 in 2027; if Detroit has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2027, then Detroit will instead convey its 2027 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City

2024 first round draft pick from Houston
Houston's 2024 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-4; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Houston will instead convey its 2024 2nd round pick and 2025 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City

OKC traded picks, problem here is the potential for the picks to become 3 second rounders. That's a big risk, and an obvious steal for Houston.