2019 NBA Finals Thread, Part 1 | Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors

[RyderMike]

If the Warriors get into big early deficits like they did against Portland, they won't come back. I feel like GS coasts knowing they can turn it up the offense at any moment, thing is, Toronto's defense is the same way. Toronto doesn't get one or two defensive stops in a row, they get five or six. Toronto's defense would have moments where they would just 100% shut down the Bucks, now GS is obviously better, so say Toronto's defense 50% shuts them down in those moments, that should still be enough if they get that big first half deficit.

Now, if GS realizes this and goes hard from the opening tip, then Raps have their work cut out for them

[dr3am]

No KD for Game 1 but he is traveling & with Game 2 being on Sunday he could possibly return for that game.. I definitely expect Boogie to make his return Game 1.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[cpower]

this post gave me an idea....why don't we go back and look at the history of the warriors pre-KD?

2013-14: 51 wins, lost 1st round

Curry (25): 36.5mpg, 28.3usg%, .225ws48, 7.4bpm --- PLYF: 42.3mpg, 23.1usg%, .131ws48, 3.7bpm
Dray (23): 21.9mpg, 14.8usg%, .119ws48, 2.8bpm ---- PLYF: 32.6mpg, 16.4usg%, .109ws48, 6.8bpm
Klay (23): 35.4mpg, 22.6usg%, .112ws48, 0.7bpm ---- PLYF: 36.7mpg, 20.5usg%, .045ws48, 0.6bpm
Iggy (30): 32.4mpg, 13.3usg%, .135ws48, 3.0bpm ---- PLYF: 35.4mpg, 16.7usg%, .049ws48, 1.3bpm
Lee (30): 33.2mpg, 24.3usg%, .160ws48, 0.8bpm ----- PLYF: 31.0mpg, 20.1usg%, .081ws48, 1.3bpm

Barnes (21): 28.3mpg, 16.8usg%, .070ws48, -1.4bpm - PLYF: 22.3mpg, 16.4usg%, .033ws48, -1.5bpm
O'Neal (35): 20.1mpg, 17.8usg%, .146ws48, -1.3bpm -- PLYF: 12.0mpg, 20.0usg%, .118ws48, -1.8bpm
Speights (26): 12.4mpg, 25.4usg%, .103ws48, -5.2bpm - PLYF: 9.7mpg, 27.1usg%, .146ws48, 1.5bpm

So the band was still young, but the band was all together at this point. Steph was already a super elite player, Klay was Klay, and Iggy was Iggy. Dray wasn't yet Dray during the regular season, but turned into Dray come playoffs. Lee was mediocre, the bench stunk. Unfortunately, this young team choked hard in the playoffs, led by Curry. Just poor performance across the board, except for the aforementioned Dray, the only guy to step up and he stepped up huge. This was also before they went all-in on their smallball lineup.


2014-15: 67wins, won Championship

Curry (26): 32.7mpg, 28.9usg%, .288ws48, 9.9bpm -------- PLYF: 39.3mpg, 31.0usg%, .228ws48, 8.7bpm
Dray (24): 31.5mpg, 17.2usg%, .163ws48, 5.0bpm --------- PLYF: 37.3mpg, 19.2usg%, .161ws48, 6.0bpm
Klay (24): 31.9mpg, 27.6usg%, .172ws48, 2.7bpm ---------- PLYF: 36.2mpg, 23.3usg%, .118ws48, 1.5bpm
Iggy (31): 26.9mpg, 13.3usg%, .117ws48, 1.6bpm ---------- PLYF: 30.2mpg, 15.1usg%, .170ws48, 4.1bpm
Barnes (22): 28.3mpg, 14.9usg%, .139ws48, 1.1bpm ------ PLYF: 32.4mpg, 15.6usg%, .115w48, 1.6bpm

Bogut (30): 23.6mpg, 13.2usg%, .159ws48, 4.1bpm -------- PLYF: 23.2mpg, 10.9usg%, .153ws48, 4.6bpm
Livingston (28): 18.8mpg, 15.9usg%, .107ws48, -1.7bpm -- PLYF: 17.9mpg, 13.3usg%, .118ws48, -0.5bpm
Barbosa (32): 14.9mpg, 20.5usg%, .137ws48, -0.8bpm ----- PLYF: 10.9mpg, 21.5usg%, .113ws48, -2.1bpm

Curry got even better. And now Dray joined him as a full time elite player. Klay actually had maybe his best year impact wise. And Iggy stepped up into Playoffs Iggy for the first time. Bogut being healthy again ended up being a bigtime impact add as well. And this time there was no choking come playoffs time. well, Klay choked a bit (though really his regular season may have been the career outlier here), but Iggy stepped up so large it didn;'t matter. Barnes actually looked like a useful player at this point too, though he was riding coattails.


2015-16: 73 wins, lost Finals

Curry (27): 34.2mpg, 32.6usg%, .318ws48, 12.5bpm ---------- PLYF: 34.1mpg, 32.1usg%, .152ws48, 6.4bpm
Dray (25): 34.7mpg, 18.8usg%, .190ws48, 5.8bpm ------------- PLYF: 38.2mpg, 18.9usg%, .171ws48, 7.1bpm
Klay (25): 33.3mpg, 26.3usg%, .144ws48, 0.7bpm ------------- PLYF: 35.4mpg, 28.0usg%, .142ws48, 2.8bpm
Iggy (32): 26.6mpg, 12.1usg%, .122ws48, 1.6bpm ------------- PLYF: 32.0mpg, 12.1usg%, .133ws48, 3.8bpm
Barnes (23): 30.9mpg, 15.9usg%, .116ws48, -0.2bpm --------- PLYF: 31.0mpg, 14.5usg%, .047ws48, -1.2bpm

Bogut (31): 20.7mpg, 11.4usg%, .180ws48, 4.5bpm ------------ PLYF: 16.6mpg, 12.3usg%, .194ws48, 7.4bpm
Livingston (29): 19.5mpg, 14.2usg%, .145ws48m, -0.5bpm --- PLYF: 21.4mpg, 18.2usg%, .108ws48, -0.7bpm
Barbosa (33): 15.9mpg, 18.1usg%, .091ws48, -2.1bpm -------- PLYF: 11.0mpg, 18.7usg%, .172ws48, 2.1bpm


Now this is pretty interesting. Curry went supernova this year, putting one of the elite impact seasons of all time. He was THE reason they won 73 games. Just amazing. But, looking at the numbers, I can't get past the fact that for the 2nd time in 3yrs, he kinda choked in the playoffs. He was still really damn good, but nowhere near what he was in the regular season. Dray and Iggy stepped up as usual in the playoffs again, and even Klay joined the party this time, but Steph just wasn't the same Steph in the playoffs, and that's probably whey they didn't win. In fact, the year they won is the only year where Stef maintained his super-elite regular season performance right through the playoffs.

Now we look at this year's team, without KD, and ask ourselves which of these three Warriors squads this year's team most closely resembles:

2018-19: 57 wins, in Finals

Curry (30): 33.8mpg, 30.4usg%, .199ws48, 6.3bpm -------- PLYF: 37.2mpg, 28.7usg%, .195ws48, 5.3bpm
Dray (28): 31.3mpg, 13.1usg%, .100ws48, 2.0bpm --------- PLYF: 37.7mpg, 17.5usg%, .139ws48, 5.7bpm
Klay (28): 34.0mpg, 25.6usg%, .095ws48, -0.8bpm --------- PLYF: 39.4mpg, 21.8usg%, .042ws48, -0.9bpm
Iggy (35): 23.2mpg, 10.4usg%, .129ws48, 1.9bpm ---------- PLYF: 29.4mpg, 13.6usg%, .152ws48. 5.1bpm
Cousins (28): 25.7mpg, 28.1usg%, .151ws48, 3.6bpm ------ PLYF: 12.5mpg, 34.3usg%, -.138ws48, -4.6bpm

Looney (22): 18.5mpg, 12.8usg%, .195ws48, 3.7bpm ------- PLYF: 20.5mpg, 11.6usg%, .209ws48, 4.8bpm
Livingston (33): 15.1mpg, 12.0usg%, .101ws48, -1.5bpm --- PLYF: 14.0mpg, 11.9usg%, .097ws48, -1.5bpm
McKinnie (26): 13.9mpg, 13.9usg%, .100ws48, -2.5bpm ---- PLYF: 11.1mpg, 11.9usg%, .087ws48, -3.5bpm

So I think everyone is prepared to concede that the warriors' regular season performance has to be taken with large doses of salt, as they weren't keeping their foot on the gas all year.

And indeed, we can see that clearly here - once again, Playoffs Dray and Playoffs Iggy have stepped up as always despite their poor regular seasons. Klay hasn't stepped up, though, and he is starting to look like he's gone from "good but overrated" to "kinda bad and still overrated".

What's interesting to me here again is Mr.Curry - once again he had a great regular season, but maybe not quite as high impact as the pre-KD years. The one year they won without KD, Curry was elite of elite in the playoffs - and this year he's not quite there. Of course, what makes it more interesting is that he sure as hell looked like he was there last series. So the question is can Curry go supernova against the raps like he did against the Blazers? I'd say he probably needs to, because there's less support than usual. Dray and Iggy are great as always, but Klay doesn't seem to be prime Klay anymore, and now of course with the injuries the depth beyond that looks spottier than usual as well.

If I had to say which previous Playoffs Warriors the current team most resembles based on these numbers, I'd have to say the '16 Warriors that lost in the finals - Curry looks very good but maybe not super-elite, Dray and Iggy both look great, the 5th starter is a big question mark and they have one big off the bench consistently having a good impact....they seem very similar player by player with one exception - Klay seems to be a noticably lesser player now than he was then.

i appreciated your time and effort ...but seriously man what is this? except for the numbers, most of the stuff are pretty inaccurate. Let me give you a hint...Warriors w/o KD plays a lot like Bucks and Curry played a lot like Giannis...You crowd the paint for Giannis and you trap Curry at half court to give the ball out of their hands and force the role players to beat you. Winning in 15 or losing in 16, they played the same way and sometimes the open shots dropped and some other times not. Raptors game plan will be heavily trapping Curry and force Klay/Role players to score.

Wow coach thanks for that. You woulda saved me so much time!

np. have a wonderful time !

[will]

BRUH.

I hope you did some ctrl c/ctrl v there.

You ain't type all that, right...?

[will]

We're here, baby!

[TheGOATWill]

i appreciated your time and effort ...but seriously man what is this? except for the numbers, most of the stuff are pretty inaccurate. Let me give you a hint...Warriors w/o KD plays a lot like Bucks and Curry played a lot like Giannis...You crowd the paint for Giannis and you trap Curry at half court to give the ball out of their hands and force the role players to beat you. Winning in 15 or losing in 16, they played the same way and sometimes the open shots dropped and some other times not. Raptors game plan will be heavily trapping Curry and force Klay/Role players to score.

Oh yeah. Why didn’t me or thousands of others think of that. Trap Curry at half court. Play 3 on 4 behind it. Scramble. Rotate. Try not to lose Klay Thompson in the process. Curry presumably remains motionless at half court. Shot clock violation. Turnover. Boom. Easy peezy.

[cpower]

i appreciated your time and effort ...but seriously man what is this? except for the numbers, most of the stuff are pretty inaccurate. Let me give you a hint...Warriors w/o KD plays a lot like Bucks and Curry played a lot like Giannis...You crowd the paint for Giannis and you trap Curry at half court to give the ball out of their hands and force the role players to beat you. Winning in 15 or losing in 16, they played the same way and sometimes the open shots dropped and some other times not. Raptors game plan will be heavily trapping Curry and force Klay/Role players to score.

Oh yeah. Why didn’t me or thousands of others think of that. Trap Curry at half court. Play 3 on 4 behind it. Scramble. Rotate. Try not to lose Klay Thompson in the process. Curry presumably remains motionless at half court. Shot clock violation. Turnover. Boom. Easy peezy.

cavs did it in 2016 and it worked ...Klay/Barnes couldnt make a three..sometimes you gotta take a gamble.

[will]

Warriors don't want it with the Raptors!!!!!!

[durden_tyler]

If the Warriors get into big early deficits like they did against Portland, they won't come back. I feel like GS coasts knowing they can turn it up the offense at any moment, thing is, Toronto's defense is the same way. Toronto doesn't get one or two defensive stops in a row, they get five or six. Toronto's defense would have moments where they would just 100% shut down the Bucks, now GS is obviously better, so say Toronto's defense 50% shuts them down in those moments, that should still be enough if they get that big first half deficit.

Now, if GS realizes this and goes hard from the opening tip, then Raps have their work cut out for them

In a way, it was good that the Warriors had their comeback wins in the last round. That's Golden State's biggest weakness-- taking opponents lightly and just playing down to the level of the opponent.

That's not happening in this NBA Finals methinks.

[will]

Uncle Dennis DA REAL MVP

[HBK_Kliq_33]

What's at stake for curry: he moves ahead of magic Johnson as the GOAT PG for prime

What's at stake for kawhi: he moves ahead of bird and become 2nd goat SF behind LeBron for prime and arguably 1st for peak

[My2CentsR]

i appreciated your time and effort ...but seriously man what is this? except for the numbers, most of the stuff are pretty inaccurate. Let me give you a hint...Warriors w/o KD plays a lot like Bucks and Curry played a lot like Giannis...You crowd the paint for Giannis and you trap Curry at half court to give the ball out of their hands and force the role players to beat you. Winning in 15 or losing in 16, they played the same way and sometimes the open shots dropped and some other times not. Raptors game plan will be heavily trapping Curry and force Klay/Role players to score.

Oh yeah. Why didn’t me or thousands of others think of that. Trap Curry at half court. Play 3 on 4 behind it. Scramble. Rotate. Try not to lose Klay Thompson in the process. Curry presumably remains motionless at half court. Shot clock violation. Turnover. Boom. Easy peezy.

I'm pretty sure Cavs trapping Curry at half court was the approach that kept hurting Cavs in the playoffs. Sometime it works initially, but most of the time he's quick enough to pass then runs around and gets open before everyone else tries to reestablish one on one defensive position. It's not like the other players are forced to settle for 3s when he's trapped.

[And1+2]

I've predicted this series since the start of the season. After the Gasol trade I knew that this series was destined to happen. I've called it the best modern day (3 era) offense of all time vs. the potential best modern day defensive team ever assembled. Why potential? Because if the Raptors win, there will be no question.

My prediction? Raps in 7.

I could be wrong. If I am, I don't care. I just hope it's a slugfest and it goes down in history as one of the greatest battles in NBA history.

[RaptorHooter]

So Im just curious. Looking at the poll right now, there are more picks for Toronto to take the series than GS. So does that mean if GS wins we won't have to get thread after thread after thread about how much of a cakewalk it was for them and how they ruined the NBA because its obvious no one can compete with them? Or does that narrative come storming back if GS takes game 1?

So a real GM poll, of which Raps fans make up a large segment, is more indicative of the disparity between the 2 teams than, say, the Vegas odds that put the Warriors as 3-1 favs?

Focus on winning Thursday, Raps are favored and always lose game 1. We'll roll if we somehow win that one.

[java051997]

This may have been asked before but, why such a long delay between series? None of the other playoff series waited this long.

Because Finals always starts on May 30 or so..
Warriors swept the Blazers and Raptors close out the bucks at 6

[cjx]

2019 Finals

Game 3 Prediction
Toronto 119, Golden State 116 (OT) (Raps lead series 2-1) (Note: Game 2 will have 3 OTs, so back-to-back OT games)

King Kawhi the Sensational KLaw: 34 pts, 10 rebs, 6 asts, 2 stls, 1 blk (37.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 7.0 apg over 3 gms)
Serge Ibaka: 20 pts, 8 rebs, 1 ast, 2 blks
Kyle Lowry: 14 pts, 3 rebs, 11 asts

Steph Curry: 25 pts, 5 rebs, 6 asts (29.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.7 apg over 3 gms)
Klay Thompson: 22 pts, 4 rebs, 1 ast
Draymond Green: 12 pts, 9 rebs, 7 asts, 1 stl

[Clyde Frazier]

Read on Twitter

Is it Thursday yet?

[inquisitive]

Gasol might not be very useful in this series. Ibaka gets more pt?

[NinjaBro]

[WeLikeOurGuys]

Without Durant I like the Raptors.

Their ability to switch on screens will limit Thompson and Curry.