2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 6) - with ROY poll

[toooskies]

[url][/url]

You're skipping a lot of steps here and create an unequal comparison. For this comp to make any sense, you have to be holding Mobley to the standard of being a 'transcendent player' which means assuming that Mobley will not only be a very good defender--or even a top-20 one--but rather a defensive supernova, clear-cut game-changing multiple-DPOY guy. I'm all about dreaming big for rookies, but that's a big leap. As you said, he has that upside--but for him to become a 'transcendent' player he needs to become legitimately awesome on defense, one of if not the best defenders of the last decade. He has no chance otherwise, since we're all acknowledging he's unlikely to get better than 'hey, pretty good!' as a scorer.

Cade on the other hand doesn't need to develop 'best player in the league' skills to be better than Mobley. He just needs to become a more efficient, consistent, and sharper version of what he already basically is, and he needs Mobley to not become the very best version of himself.

Point is, they're both good prospects who have a chance of being top-5ish players, but that's extremely far from guaranteed for either player. Mobley isn't a couple of clicks from getting there, and Cade also has a lot of the foundation already laid for becoming that. I'd probably agree that Mobley has a slightly clearer path to becoming that, but it's still all going to depend on a bunch of unpredictable things. Lots of guys kind of plateau after strong rookie years, and lots of guys make huge leaps randomly in years 2,3, 4 or sometimes 5. We're not gonna know who's better until it's happening.

Well I'm basically saying Mobley IS a defensive game changer already.

I think that best case Mobley >>>>>> best case Cade AND I think there's a much clearer path for Mobley to achieve his best case.

Advanced stats don't really support it, especially when you look at their defense since Allens been out. Clearly has so many of the tools and has been extremely impactful, but I wouldn't put him on a tier with the best defenders in the league yet

"Defense since Allen's been out" isn't really valid as Mobley has had to play C against guys who outweigh him by 50 pounds most nights. He's been forced to not play his "free safety" role on defense. And it jumbles the roles of everyone else on the court.

Go look at Giannis this year without Brook Lopez. Giannis is a DPOY, Jrue is first-team all-defense, but when Lopez was out they were an average defensive team. Not because Giannis is a bad defender or can't guard centers, but it's hard to both anchor the defense and provide roaming/switching help.

[HotelVitale]

that's literally the same one i quoted...

I disagree that this was a useless no look from Barnes.

Look at where Siakam is as they pass mid-court - he is clearly behind Lavert. Barnes looking away from Siakam and towards Brooks in the middle of the floor draws Lavert's attention and before you know it Siakam is free for the dunk.

Of course WHEN Barnes passes it, Siakam is free. But Barnes looking at Brooks instead of Siakam coming past half court is what allowed him to be as open as he was.

Great post. This is exactly what happen. Barnes looking at Brooks convince Lavert that Barnes will pass to Brooks so he slows down and divert his attention towards Brooks. This makes Siakam open and boom Barnes hit him. Amazing coordination between Barnes and Siakam.

Come on, guys, now you’re just inventing stuff. The tape is very clear that Levert never sees Siakam at all until he’s very open, and in any case Barnes is fully looking much more in Siakam’s direction than in Brooks—that is until he looks away at the last second as the pass is being made. So Levert never needed to be diverted, and Barnes ‘no look’ doesn’t divert anything anyway.

It Barnes had been looking at Brooks the whole time and that’s what cause Levert to not notice Siakam, or if Levert had clocked Siakam and was trying to recover to him and a no-look made him think twice, then sure it would’ve been a useful tactic. But neither of those things is true here and the no look is just a little throw in that has no effect on the play; Siakam made a great cut that Levert didn’t see, and the pass was wide open once that happened.

[Mattatron]

Mobley has benefited mostly from Allen's presence on the court. No way should he get an all-def nod. If someone of the cavs should get all def credit than it's Allen for sure. He's very underrated, and everyone is blinded by Mobley.

[nikster]

[url][/url]

Well I'm basically saying Mobley IS a defensive game changer already.

I think that best case Mobley >>>>>> best case Cade AND I think there's a much clearer path for Mobley to achieve his best case.

Advanced stats don't really support it, especially when you look at their defense since Allens been out. Clearly has so many of the tools and has been extremely impactful, but I wouldn't put him on a tier with the best defenders in the league yet

"Defense since Allen's been out" isn't really valid as Mobley has had to play C against guys who outweigh him by 50 pounds most nights. He's been forced to not play his "free safety" role on defense. And it jumbles the roles of everyone else on the court.

Go look at Giannis this year without Brook Lopez. Giannis is a DPOY, Jrue is first-team all-defense, but when Lopez was out they were an average defensive team. Not because Giannis is a bad defender or can't guard centers, but it's hard to both anchor the defense and provide roaming/switching help.

Well Bucks defense with Lopez but no Giannis was bad. Cavs play similarly whether it's Mobldy or Allen.. . I'd like to see and argument for Mobldy being this transcendental defneisve player without also including Allen in this conversation.

[Tacoma]

Sorry for interrupt the discussion about how awesome Scott Barnes is (and he actually is awesome) but Cade just dropped a 22 9 and 7 on 50% from the field, which is nothing special, he has been doing that the entire month of march.

Now you guys can go back to talk about Barnes for the next 5 pages or so.

Much of recent discussion about Barnes pertained to his no-look passes being debated. Rather than unnecessary sarcasm, if you have something unique you'd like to bring up about Cade, feel free to do so and we can debate it over the next 5 pages or so.

Cade has been great no doubt. In March he averaged 19 shots to get 22 pts. Mobley averaged 13 shots to get 17 pts and Barnes averaged 15 shots to get his 18 pts. This is reflected in their usage rate where Cade is 27%, Mobley is 20% and Barnes 19%.

Which highlights one thing: Cade is getting a more opportunities to score because DET is out of the playoffs allowing them to focus on developing Cade; whereas Mobley & Barnes have better teammates hence not primary ball handlers and CLE and TOR are focused on fighting for playoff seeding than developing their rookies.

All 3 are neck and neck for ROY. Cade primarily because of his great play and Mobley & Cade same but also because they are key players on winning teams.

[jasonxxx102]

[url][/url]

You're skipping a lot of steps here and create an unequal comparison. For this comp to make any sense, you have to be holding Mobley to the standard of being a 'transcendent player' which means assuming that Mobley will not only be a very good defender--or even a top-20 one--but rather a defensive supernova, clear-cut game-changing multiple-DPOY guy. I'm all about dreaming big for rookies, but that's a big leap. As you said, he has that upside--but for him to become a 'transcendent' player he needs to become legitimately awesome on defense, one of if not the best defenders of the last decade. He has no chance otherwise, since we're all acknowledging he's unlikely to get better than 'hey, pretty good!' as a scorer.

Cade on the other hand doesn't need to develop 'best player in the league' skills to be better than Mobley. He just needs to become a more efficient, consistent, and sharper version of what he already basically is, and he needs Mobley to not become the very best version of himself.

Point is, they're both good prospects who have a chance of being top-5ish players, but that's extremely far from guaranteed for either player. Mobley isn't a couple of clicks from getting there, and Cade also has a lot of the foundation already laid for becoming that. I'd probably agree that Mobley has a slightly clearer path to becoming that, but it's still all going to depend on a bunch of unpredictable things. Lots of guys kind of plateau after strong rookie years, and lots of guys make huge leaps randomly in years 2,3, 4 or sometimes 5. We're not gonna know who's better until it's happening.

Well I'm basically saying Mobley IS a defensive game changer already.

I think that best case Mobley >>>>>> best case Cade AND I think there's a much clearer path for Mobley to achieve his best case.

Advanced stats don't really support it, especially when you look at their defense since Allens been out. Clearly has so many of the tools and has been extremely impactful, but I wouldn't put him on a tier with the best defenders in the league yet

Small sample sized advanced stats are less than worthless when evaluating a player

Advanced stats should only be used to supplement your observations from watching tape.

[jasonxxx102]

Another thing that nobody has mentioned is that the level of competition that Barnes and Mobley face every night is significantly higher than Cade.

Detroit sucks and nobody is coming into Detroit with their best and most competitive game.

The Cavs and Raptors gets their opponents best game every night and teams roll into Detroit for a night off.

[Mr. Krabs]

Another thing that nobody has mentioned is that the level of competition that Barnes and Mobley face every night is significantly higher than Cade.

Detroit sucks and nobody is coming into Detroit with their best and most competitive game.

The Cavs and Raptors gets their opponents best game every night and teams roll into Detroit for a night off.

nobody mentioned this because it doesn't make any sense

[vege]

Sorry for interrupt the discussion about how awesome Scott Barnes is (and he actually is awesome) but Cade just dropped a 22 9 and 7 on 50% from the field, which is nothing special, he has been doing that the entire month of march.

Now you guys can go back to talk about Barnes for the next 5 pages or so.

Much of recent discussion about Barnes pertained to his no-look passes being debated. Rather than unnecessary sarcasm, if you have something unique you'd like to bring up about Cade, feel free to do so and we can debate it over the next 5 pages or so.

Cade has been great no doubt. In March he averaged 19 shots to get 22 pts. Mobley averaged 13 shots to get 17 pts and Barnes averaged 15 shots to get his 18 pts. This is reflected in their usage rate where Cade is 27%, Mobley is 20% and Barnes 19%.

Which highlights one thing: Cade is getting a more opportunities to score because DET is out of the playoffs allowing them to focus on developing Cade; whereas Mobley & Barnes have better teammates hence not primary ball handlers and CLE and TOR are focused on fighting for playoff seeding than developing their rookies.

All 3 are neck and neck for ROY. Cade primarily because of his great play and Mobley & Cade same but also because they are key players on winning teams.

It's difficult to have a serious discussion with someone who obviously don't watch the games, just check the box scores, but go on, let's discuss Barnes no look passes.

[jasonxxx102]

Another thing that nobody has mentioned is that the level of competition that Barnes and Mobley face every night is significantly higher than Cade.

Detroit sucks and nobody is coming into Detroit with their best and most competitive game.

The Cavs and Raptors gets their opponents best game every night and teams roll into Detroit for a night off.

nobody mentioned this because it doesn't make any sense

You think every team gives the same level of effort playing Detroit vs playing Cavs/Raptors?

Maybe it’s not a big factor but I think it certainly is something to consider

[vege]

Another thing that nobody has mentioned is that the level of competition that Barnes and Mobley face every night is significantly higher than Cade.

Detroit sucks and nobody is coming into Detroit with their best and most competitive game.

The Cavs and Raptors gets their opponents best game every night and teams roll into Detroit for a night off.

nobody mentioned this because it doesn't make any sense

You think every team gives the same level of effort playing Detroit vs playing Cavs/Raptors?

Considering Detroit have been better than Cleveland since the all star break, and really close to Toronto, I have no doubt about it. Also Cade get a lot more attention from the defense than Barnes and Mobley, there are posts in this thread showing it on video.

Pistons have been about as average as you can be on offense and defense. Slightly below average on offense and slightly above on defense.

Magic have been really good defensively lately.

Portland has been horrible lately.

Boston elite on offense and defense in their last 15 games.

I think we're a slightly below .500 team next year if we can carry this momentum over, even without any big moves.

[djsunyc]

Mobley has benefited mostly from Allen's presence on the court. No way should he get an all-def nod. If someone of the cavs should get all def credit than it's Allen for sure. He's very underrated, and everyone is blinded by Mobley.

drtg pre all star / post all star

mobley: 103.6 / 116.1

[djsunyc]

no poster here is watching 30+ raptor / cavs / pistons games...and that's what's needed to get a good handle on each of the players - their roles, responsibilities, etc. hell, no media member is watching all those games either. it's impossible.

so how do you pick one? that's where all the other things come into question - regular stats, advanced stats, team impact, team performance, etc.

[JackTalkThai]

Another thing that nobody has mentioned is that the level of competition that Barnes and Mobley face every night is significantly higher than Cade.

Detroit sucks and nobody is coming into Detroit with their best and most competitive game.

The Cavs and Raptors gets their opponents best game every night and teams roll into Detroit for a night off.

Just stick to the pro-Barnes points that actually make sense and are founded in logic and reality.

[djsunyc]

Read on Twitter

[jasonxxx102]

nobody mentioned this because it doesn't make any sense

You think every team gives the same level of effort playing Detroit vs playing Cavs/Raptors?

Considering Detroit have been better than Cleveland since the all star break, and really close to Toronto, I have no doubt about it. Also Cade get a lot more attention from the defense than Barnes and Mobley, there are posts in this thread showing it on video.

Pistons have been about as average as you can be on offense and defense. Slightly below average on offense and slightly above on defense.

Magic have been really good defensively lately.

Portland has been horrible lately.

Boston elite on offense and defense in their last 15 games.

I think we're a slightly below .500 team next year if we can carry this momentum over, even without any big moves.

I mean the last 15 games the Cavs have had multiple players missing games it’s hard to really take much from that. Same with the Raptors. Teams are still playing them harder than Detroit.

Yea cade definitely gets more attention just being the primary ball handler.

I don’t even think he’s best suited has a primary facilitator. I think you really unlock Cade as a secondary facilitator. Bring in a vet PG who can run the offense and play defense and allow Cade to kind of be more free off ball.

[Tripod]

Read on Twitter

Too bad the anti Barnes people won't bother listening to this and the sound reasoning.

[NRSV]

In a redraft I think Mobley likely goes 1st overall.

I'm biased, but after watching most of the top 10 picks play at least a few games, I tend to agree.

It's about ceiling as much as anything. We know Mobley's floor is already a top 10 defensive player in the league who will shoot 50% from the field at 12 FGA per game. Given the demonstrated skills and evolving floor game, it's likely he ends up a DPOY candidate every season while scoring 20+ ppg efficiently.

Can Cade make up the difference at an offensive hub and primary scorer? Can Barnes?

[Mattatron]

In a redraft I think Mobley likely goes 1st overall.

I'm biased, but after watching most of the top 10 picks play at least a few games, I tend to agree.

It's about ceiling as much as anything. We know Mobley's floor is already a top 10 defensive player in the league who will shoot 50% from the field at 12 FGA per game. Given the demonstrated skills and evolving floor game, it's likely he ends up a DPOY candidate every season while scoring 20+ ppg efficiently.

Can Cade make up the difference at an offensive hub and primary scorer? Can Barnes?

Yupp.

[orlando_joe]

Another thing that nobody has mentioned is that the level of competition that Barnes and Mobley face every night is significantly higher than Cade.

Detroit sucks and nobody is coming into Detroit with their best and most competitive game.

The Cavs and Raptors gets their opponents best game every night and teams roll into Detroit for a night off.

and they dont come in town to worry about 4th options or 5th..they let them get what they want..you can spin things any way