NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[RiotPunch]

The gap should be razor-thin between Jokic/Giannis/SGA at this point. Giannis will probably be #7 on the MVP ladder.

[Stribor]

Last year it was Jokic vs Embiid. Now that Embiid is out of the running I thought this thread would quiet down. I was wrong. Britney is back

Watch on YouTube

Yeah. Embiid vs. Jokic was competitive run. Since embiid got injured, other candidates should either show a big rise in production since enbiid got injured or jokic should show a significant slow down. Otherwise it seems more as finding excuses not to give jokic 3rd mvp than really having a fair competition.

[iggymcfrack]

Giannis played great against Chicago and I will say that he’s closer to Jokic and SGA for #1/#2 than he is to Luka in 3rd. That’s about as far as I can go though. There’s nothing to suggest that he’s actually the best player in the league or anything.

[QPR]

Jokic has come out of the AS break 5-0 and with four triple doubles (three of them monsters). Not sure how Giannis could have closed the gap.

I think he's definitely solidified top three though.

[Packbuckman]

Jokic has come out of the AS break 5-0 and with four triple doubles (three of them monsters). Not sure how Giannis could have closed the gap.

I think he's definitely solidified top three though.

The bucks are also undefeated and Giannis leading that bucks defense. He’s going to be the only player to average 30 pts on over 60% fg ever. I love jokic and his offensive game him and Giannis are the two best players in the league. Giannis shooting is getting better and better from everywhere he is the best two way player and I wouldn’t trade him for anyone including jokic. But there’s a lot of season left let’s see how it plays out.

[Wolfgang630]

Nobody would trade Jokic for Giannis either. Giannis hasn’t closed any gap with Denver also being undefeated since the AS break. Joker has 4 triple doubles. Three of the wins are against good teams like GS, Sacramento and Miami. Milwaukee did beat Minnesota and the Hornets twice…

[Packbuckman]

Nobody would trade Jokic for Giannis either. Giannis hasn’t closed any gap with Denver also being undefeated since the AS break. Joker has 4 triple doubles. Three of the wins are against good teams like GS, Sacramento and Miami. Milwaukee did beat Minnesota and the Hornets twice…

And also Denver right before the allstar break where Giannis was the best player on the floor. Giannis was guarding jokic pretty good jokic can not guard Giannis at all he blows by him like he’s standing in quicksand. The difference for me is the defense that Giannis is capable of but I know jokic fans ain’t trading him for Giannis either lol
Giannis can still get better which is a scary thing I just wish the bucks would never have hired griffin!

[CobraCommander]

Best players still Giannis aar 2 and jokic at one

Sga may be having a better year so far - but no one thinks SGA is as good as Giannis yet right ?

Giannis and Tatum (can’t believe I’m saying this) are being underrated-

All Tatum does is lead the best team in the league year over year and plays hard at both ends -

[Wolfgang630]

Best players still Giannis aar 2 and jokic at one

Sga may be having a better year so far - but no one thinks SGA is as good as Giannis yet right ?

Giannis and Tatum (can’t believe I’m saying this) are being underrated-

All Tatum does is lead the best team in the league year over year and plays hard at both ends -

Idk how Giannis is underrated. He’s a consensus top 2 player. He’s top 3 in mvp.

[Crunch 99]

Since I last posted the Basketball Reference MVP Tracker on Feb 21, Jokic widened his lead over SGA. This move corresponded with Denver going on a run to all but nullify OKC's advantage in the standings. Giannis pulled back in to third place ahead of Doncic again. The Mavs looked they were going on a run, but then lost some big games to remain just at eighth place in the standings. Tatum is holding steady in fifth place.

[DrModesty]

Going from what I have watched and then check stats to verify my eye test, I have it as such for this year between the two frontrunners.

Jokic's obvious advantages over SGA are:

Size
Strength
Defensive rebounding
Offensive rebounding
Posting up
Scoring in the paint outside of the restricted area
Passing - particularly creating scoring opportunities for others that the defense can't anticipate
Second chance scoring
Verbally quarterbacking the offense (I think? This is hard to tell watching on tv)

SGA's obvious advantages over Jokic are:

Speed
Body Control
Footwork
Scoring
Driving
3 point shooting
Clutch offense and defense
Getting steals
Drawing and shooting free throws
Perimeter on ball defense
Perimeter off ball defense
Defensive matchup versatility
Scoring from the elbow, deep mid range and from the baseline
Creating separation
Ball handling

Things they are about the same at:

Scoring at the rim
Blocking shots
Controlling and managing the game
Ball Security

Other notable info

Jokic is an established MVP, Champion and Best player in the world level talent while SGA is merely an established 1st team All NBA talent (Champions advantage so to speak)
Jokic's starting teammates have missed more games
Jokic has had a hotter streak of play post all star break
Jokic has the clearly worse bench
The Nuggets are at best meeting season expectations

SGA has the slightly better team record
SGA is leading an extremely young team
SGA won the head to head 2-1-1 as in 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 win where Jokic didn't play.
SGA hit a buzzer beater game winner in Denver
The Thunder are drastically exceeding expectations with him as the driving force
The Thunder performed throughout the Giddey situation which reflects well on SGA (Among others)


As an aside, while advanced stats like BPM, VORP and ON/OFF are useful in a broad sense, they are a poor measure when comparing these two for this MVP race.

The BPM formula strongly favors centers with a high assist %, valuing center assists at near double those of a PG. We even see that Sabonis, Jokic and Sengun (the 3 assist leaders for centers) rank above Gobert, AD, Bam, Jarret Allen and Brook Lopez for D-BPM. Jokic even blasts Wemby out of the water in this advanced stat despite Wemby being a god when it comes to the primary defensive box score stats.

VORP is derived from BPM, so if BPM's results are flawed for this exercise then VORP's are too.

And for ON/OFF, it paints an inaccurate picture between the two for multiple reasons. First, Jokic's bench is flatly worse which pumps his ON/OFF number higher. Second, Jokic plays with his starters significantly more often. Coach Malones strategy is to overwhelm opposition with the starting 5 and hope the weak bench doesn't lose too much ground. Coach Daignaults strategy is to do a 3 pronged rotation of the starters; SGA + Dort + Bench; and J-Dub + Chet + Bench, trying to be competitive for all 48 minutes while giving J-Dub and Chet opportunity to develop in to stars. Essentially teambuilding plus coaching philosophies make the stat fairly meaningless here.

These 3 happen to be the advanced stats that show a significant advantage for Jokic, each with a reason that divorces them from being a reliable differentiator between the 2 players.

For other advanced stats: EPM significantly favors SGA, LEBRON moderately favors Jokic, PER marginally favors Jokic. Win Shares are dead even. TS% is dead even. +/- marginally favors SGA,

As it stands I have these two neck and neck, leaning SGA. This is not some foregone thing that Jokic is a level above.

[bisme37]

Hey sorry I came in this thread all weird yesterday, you guys. I'm not feeling too hot atm and I'm kinda grumpy, and that's usually the time I should just shut up instead of running my mouth haha. My initial post was really argumentative and then I got mad that people started arguing with me lol. My bad. A couple of you made really good points in reply.

I was trying to say I view MVP as Most Valuable to Winning. To me it's not "scoring champion" or "best offensive player" or even "best overall player." Those are different things.

So my view is the MVP award should put a priority on winning. To me if your team is not a top 4-or-so seed in the conference you really shouldn't even be a candidate for it.

Of course the standings are fluid but as of now my top candidates are Jokic, SGA, and Tatum. Maybe Giannis too I guess.

Another old school opinion of mine is the old saying "superstars are made in the playoffs." So that's where the case for SGA gets a little iffy for me. It seems like he's achieved superstar status without the playoff success, but giving him an MVP just feels premature right now.

So I think if I had to vote right now I'd go for Jokic. The Nuggets are winning at a high enough rate that Jokic's superior stats put him ahead of Tatum.

So that's how I look at it if anyone cares. Peace.

[AleksandarN]

Going from what I have watched and then check stats to verify my eye test, I have it as such for this year between the two frontrunners.

Jokic's obvious advantages over SGA are:

Size
Strength
Defensive rebounding
Offensive rebounding
Posting up
Scoring in the paint outside of the restricted area
Passing - particularly creating scoring opportunities for others that the defense can't anticipate
Second chance scoring
Verbally quarterbacking the offense (I think? This is hard to tell watching on tv)

SGA's obvious advantages over Jokic are:

Speed
Body Control
Footwork
Scoring
Driving
3 point shooting
Clutch offense and defense
Getting steals
Drawing and shooting free throws
Perimeter on ball defense
Perimeter off ball defense
Defensive matchup versatility
Scoring from the elbow, deep mid range and from the baseline
Creating separation
Ball handling

Things they are about the same at:

Scoring at the rim
Blocking shots
Controlling and managing the game
Ball Security

Other notable info

Jokic is an established MVP, Champion and Best player in the world level talent while SGA is merely an established 1st team All NBA talent (Champions advantage so to speak)
Jokic's starting teammates have missed more games
Jokic has had a hotter streak of play post all star break
Jokic has the clearly worse bench
The Nuggets are at best meeting season expectations

SGA has the slightly better team record
SGA is leading an extremely young team
SGA won the head to head 2-1-1 as in 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 win where Jokic didn't play.
SGA hit a buzzer beater game winner in Denver
The Thunder are drastically exceeding expectations with him as the driving force
The Thunder performed throughout the Giddey situation which reflects well on SGA (Among others)


As an aside, while advanced stats like BPM, VORP and ON/OFF are useful in a broad sense, they are a poor measure when comparing these two for this MVP race.

The BPM formula strongly favors centers with a high assist %, valuing center assists at near double those of a PG. We even see that Sabonis, Jokic and Sengun (the 3 assist leaders for centers) rank above Gobert, AD, Bam, Jarret Allen and Brook Lopez for D-BPM. Jokic even blasts Wemby out of the water in this advanced stat despite Wemby being a god when it comes to the primary defensive box score stats.

VORP is derived from BPM, so if BPM's results are flawed for this exercise then VORP's are too.

And for ON/OFF, it paints an inaccurate picture between the two for multiple reasons. First, Jokic's bench is flatly worse which pumps his ON/OFF number higher. Second, Jokic plays with his starters significantly more often. Coach Malones strategy is to overwhelm opposition with the starting 5 and hope the weak bench doesn't lose too much ground. Coach Daignaults strategy is to do a 3 pronged rotation of the starters; SGA + Dort + Bench; and J-Dub + Chet + Bench, trying to be competitive for all 48 minutes while giving J-Dub and Chet opportunity to develop in to stars. Essentially teambuilding plus coaching philosophies make the stat fairly meaningless here.

These 3 happen to be the advanced stats that show a significant advantage for Jokic, each with a reason that divorces them from being a reliable differentiator between the 2 players.

For other advanced stats: EPM significantly favors SGA, LEBRON moderately favors Jokic, PER marginally favors Jokic. Win Shares are dead even. TS% is dead even. +/- marginally favors SGA,

As it stands I have these two neck and neck, leaning SGA. This is not some foregone thing that Jokic is a level above.

How does SGA have better footwork and body control than Jokic?? Jokic’s BBIQ is greater. Also controlling the game is definitely advantage to Jokic as he control literally the whole offense of the Nuggets.

[RB34]

Giannis has had some monster games lately. SGA needs to respond after that loss to the Spurs.

[AleksandarN]

Nobody would trade Jokic for Giannis either. Giannis hasn’t closed any gap with Denver also being undefeated since the AS break. Joker has 4 triple doubles. Three of the wins are against good teams like GS, Sacramento and Miami. Milwaukee did beat Minnesota and the Hornets twice…

And also Denver right before the allstar break where Giannis was the best player on the floor. Giannis was guarding jokic pretty good jokic can not guard Giannis at all he blows by him like he’s standing in quicksand. The difference for me is the defense that Giannis is capable of but I know jokic fans ain’t trading him for Giannis either lol
Giannis can still get better which is a scary thing I just wish the bucks would never have hired griffin!

And jokic was the better player in the first game they played on both ends.

[DrModesty]

How does SGA have better footwork and body control than Jokic?? Jokic’s BBIQ is greater. Also controlling the game is definitely advantage to Jokic as he control literally the whole offense of the Nuggets.

So for body control it is a significant gap. SGA is enormously more dexterous and agile, and his movement patterns are gliding, slithering and sharp and he has a better ability to contort his body and pivot to new movements. Jokic's lack of speed and flexibility punish him here. His movements are still fairly smooth, but once he makes a movement he has to commit to it far more.

With footwork, this is closer. Jokic is able to dazzle with challenging spin moves, beautiful pirouettes and moves his feet with excellent anticipation. SGA also has excellent anticipation with his footwork, but is better able to shift his feet side to side. His footwork also allows for absolutely devastating deceleration and vicious turn arounds. SGA can also make the same spin moves as Jokic while moving at a higher speed, but he doesn't do the pirouettes. Both are excellent using their pivot foot, Jokic with the pirouettes to flummox opposing centers, while SGA does a lot of fake spins to offset defenders.

BBIQ I didn't really address because it is so esoteric, and when both players have elite BBIQ people tend to gravitate to what is plainly obvious. But BBIQ is more like an iceberg, where the obvious is only a tiny fraction of it. For example Jokic's excellent passing vision (which I reference in his advantage of making passes the defense can't anticipate more often) is a clear example of excellent BBIQ. On the other hand SGA plays an extremely clean game which involves making less mistakes. For example the ratio of assists to bad pass turnovers is 5.37 for Jokic and 6.96 for SGA. I think what this shows is SGA is more restrained in his playmaking, while Jokic's playmaking is at such a savant level that he takes riskier opportunities. Jokic has also shown a propensity to get baited in to fouling out of frustration, while SGA can occasionally foul out of greed for steals. Gun to my head I'd say Jokic has better BBIQ, but as I said, I think this is something that you can't really derive from just watching games. We aren't comparing Chris Paul to Jordan Poole here.

Controlling the game ties in to BBIQ in some respects. However controlling a teams offense more often does not mean a player is better at controlling a game. That is something that is more tied to coaching, teammates and skillsets as opposed to dictating the game. I am speaking of knowing when to take over and then making it happen, executing down the stretch, manipulating the defense with creation for others and also creation for yourself, resisting the temptations of hero ball, understanding your limitations and cold blooded in game decision making. When you take in all the broader factors of controlling a game I think these two guys are very even. I also think that consistency in this area is the big thing that has so far held Tatum back from the next level.

[QPR]

That's a big statement game by Jokic.

[Packbuckman]

Nobody would trade Jokic for Giannis either. Giannis hasn’t closed any gap with Denver also being undefeated since the AS break. Joker has 4 triple doubles. Three of the wins are against good teams like GS, Sacramento and Miami. Milwaukee did beat Minnesota and the Hornets twice…

And also Denver right before the allstar break where Giannis was the best player on the floor. Giannis was guarding jokic pretty good jokic can not guard Giannis at all he blows by him like he’s standing in quicksand. The difference for me is the defense that Giannis is capable of but I know jokic fans ain’t trading him for Giannis either lol
Giannis can still get better which is a scary thing I just wish the bucks would never have hired griffin!

And jokic was the better player in the first game they played on both ends.

I am talking right now and going forward since we have a coach again. That was the first game Doc had to coach I think the bucks are the only team that can beat the nuggets in a 7 game series especially with a healthy Middleton. Giannis right now is on another level and if his shooting continues into the playoffs he is the best player in the nba and will win a chip. But I want to just watch and see if he can keep it up he is capable of it but it is a new thing we shall see.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

That's a big statement game by Jokic.

It’s unbelievable how these Lakers vs Nuggets games can be so close every time until the end when the Jokic/Murray late game execution just wins every time.

[HotRocks34]

Jokic went big tonight and humbled Davis