lessthanjake wrote:Djoker wrote:I read the last couple of pages in this thread. The always recurring excuse for Lebron is that he faced tougher competition. That so many of those Finals were completely unwinnable. Based on series odds, that narrative is simply revisionist history.
Lebron James
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds
2007: +360, 21.7%
2011: -175, 63.6%
2012: +155, 39.2%
2013: -220, 68.8%
2014: +135, 42.6%
2015: +190, 34.5%
2016: +180, 35.7%
2017: +250, 28.6%
2018: +688, 12.7%
2020: -350, 77.8%
Total Implied Odds: 425% --> 4.25 Expected titles
**I would round down and just say 4 Expected Titles due to Kyrie's injury in 2015.
So based on series odds at the time, you would expect Lebron to win 4 championships in his 10 appearances which is what he did. Thus, it's fair to say Lebron neither overachieved nor underachieved. Notice that he lost a series as a favorite in 2011 and another one in 2014 in which his team was a very slight underdog and then he made up for it by winning 2016 as an underdog. 2015 wasn't a winnable series due to the Kyrie injury. And 2007, 2017 and 2018 weren't winnable series but then you would have expected him to put up more of a fight than winning 1 game in those 3 series combined.
Let's do the same analysis for Jordan to compare.
Michael Jordan
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds
1991: -200, 66.7%
1992: -250, 71.4%
1993: -240, 70.6%
1996: -950, 90.5%
1997: -600, 85.7%
1998: -125, 55.6%
Total Implied Odds: 362.5% --> 3.63 Expected Titles
Jordan was a favorite in all 6 Finals but as we saw with Lebron in 2011, being the favorite doesn't mean you always win the series. To go 6-0 and never face a single Game 7 is still pretty remarkable and well above expectations. Jordan was only expected to win around 4 titles (equal to Lebron) in his 6 appearances so by winning 6 he greatly overachieved.
Both men were expected to win around 4 titles but Lebron won 4 and Jordan won 6. Thus Lebron is behind Jordan not because he underachieved but because Jordan greatly overachieved.
Great post!
I think this really gets at the heart of one of the biggest reasons why most people have Jordan above LeBron. It felt like Jordan and his team always lived up to expectations, while LeBron’s teams were frequently contenders but usually fell short. People aim to explain that away by saying LeBron’s teams faced unbeatable opponents. And, of course, there’s something to be said for the fact that, for instance, the KD Warriors were an extremely difficult opponent. That’s definitely something that gets lost when people just talk about Jordan going 6-0 in the Finals. But ultimately, as you’ve shown, based on contemporaneous perceptions of teams’ quality (i.e. taking into account things like the KD Warriors being absolute juggernauts), LeBron’s teams didn’t overachieve expectations overall, while Jordan’s team did. That’s a huge aspect of the “greatness” of a player, and the legacy of that player.
Another way to do the analysis you did is to look at each individual year, and look at their pre-playoffs title odds and accumulate those odds. If we do that, here’s what we get:
Lebron James
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds
2006: +1800, 5.3%
2007: +1200, 7.7%
2008: +2500, 3.8%
2009: +160, 38.5%
2010: +160, 38.5%
2011: +300, 25.0%
2012: +200, 33.3%
2013: -125, 55.6%
2014: +200, 33.3%
2015: +225, 30.8%
2016: +475, 17.4%
2017: +405, 19.8%
2018: +800, 11.1%
2020: +280, 26.3%
2021: +400, 20.0%
2023: +1400, 6.7%
2024: +2500, 3.8%
Total Implied Odds: 376.9% —> 3.769 Expected Titles
Michael Jordan
Year: Vegas Lines, Implied Odds
1985: +4000, 2.4%
1986: +50000, 0.2%
1987: N/A (pre-playoffs odds only listed for top 9 teams; Bulls odds worse than +2500, which is 3.8%)
1988: +1200, 7.7%
1989: +2000, 4.8%
1990: +800, 11.1%
1991: +250, 28.6%
1992: -200, 66.7%
1993: +300, 25.0%
1995: +500, 16.7%
1996: -400, 80.0%
1997: -200, 66.7%
1998: +140, 41.7%
Total Implied Odds (generously assuming 1987 is +2500): 355.4% —> 3.554 Expected Titles
Again, the results basically suggest that LeBron achieved about what was expected (very slightly more actually), while Jordan blew expectations out of the water. I think people can contest the exact validity of using betting odds as a measure, but I think if we just zoom out a bit we should be able to acknowledge that this gets to a general truth that underlies why Jordan is the consensus GOAT over LeBron: His teams outdid contemporaneous expectations in a way that LeBron’s teams did not. And, of course, one could try to say that that’s because LeBron was better and therefore he pushed up his teams’ expectations more than Jordan did, but that seems like an odd argument to make given how highly thought of Jordan was when he played and how good his statistical profile is. What we’re basically left with is two guys who are both at the top of the pyramid in terms of what individual statistics indicate about how good they were, but one simply outdid expectations more than the other. Could one fashion an argument that that’s just a product of luck and circumstance? Yes, and people have definitely done exactly that at length. But ultimately, greatness is about what happened, and this is the way the cookie crumbled.
Great post as well!
A while back, I posted expected titles based on both preseason and pre-playoffs title odds on the PC forum here. You then updated it for a few modern players like Curry, Lebron, CP3...
The part that I think confuses people which they can't get their head around is that "favorite" doesn't mean always win and "underdog" doesn't mean always lose. Thus you definitely shouldn't always win when you're the favorite nor always lose when you're the underdog. And in fact, even if you play many series as an underdog, you still accrue significant win equity and should be able to win some. And conversely, even if you play many series as the favorite, you'll still give up significant win equity and thus it's ok to lose sometimes.
Title odds are representative of perceived team quality. It's pretty bulletproof in assessing expectations surrounding teams. One can attack title odds by claiming they aren't accurate or worse yet that they systematically overvalue or undervalue certain teams. I've heard claims that Lebron's teams are overrated by title odds because Lebron is on those teams. But of course, no evidence to support those assertions but then again, how could there be. It's a vibes take whereas, love or hate title odds, it's still cold hard data.
Luck isn't a very well thought out argument for Lebron IMO. Lebron's had both of the two close Finals, 2013 and 2016, break his team's way. On the other hand, all of his losses with the possible exception of 2011 were pretty lopsided. If anything, in a parallel universe where all his Finals were re-simulated so to speak, he's more likely to win less titles rather than more.
LeBron is 0-7 in game winning/tying FGs in the finals. And is 20/116 or 17% in game winning/tying FGs in the 4th/OT for his career. That's historically bad 
