PRESTIGE wrote:It's only been one game, no need to draw any conclusions. Even if the Heat take game 2, that's to be expected. It's game 3 where the series will likely be decided. Nets have to protect home court.
While that's certainly true, a lot of what's going on here relates to the two
vastly different viewpoints of this series heading into it.
View 1 said, essentially, "Miami had a better record than Brooklyn on the season by a significant margin. Miami had a much better SRS (adjusted margin of victory) than them, too. The Heat swept the first round, looking great doing it, and teams historically benefit greatly from that. Nets looked mediocre going 7 with the Raptors. Logical conclusion: Miami is the heavy favorite, should be an easy series for them. Yeah, Nets beat them head-to-head this year, but the scores at the end of regulation in those games was +1, +1, tie, +1. And that was with the Heat in regular season coast mode; everyone knows they turn it up in the postseason."
View 2 said, essentially, "Look at the head-to-heads here. Brooklyn was 4-0. 4-0! No team in NBA history has ever gone 0-4 against another team in the regular season and then turned around and beat that team in the postseason. None. Were they close? Sure. But the Nets have been playing their best ball to close the season, so the team record is a bit deceiving, it doesn't reflect how well they've been playing. And that fact is, Brooklyn gives Miami real matchup problems. They don't care if Miami goes small because they have Pierce at the 4. They have big guards that can exploit Chalmers/Cole/Allen in the post. Miami's biggest strength on D is that they destroy pick-n-rolls, but Nets are one of the teams least reliant on pick-n-roll for offense in the league. Miami likes to get out in transition and the Nets prevent that. And while Miami got to coast in the first round against a 7 seed who's best player was playing injured, Nets had to go on the road and beat the young, athletic, balanced 3-seed. This is going to be a close series (Pierce & Kg vs the Heat practically guarantees it!), and Brooklyn might even be able to take it."
There's actually not a ton of middle ground between these views, either. So a lot of people saw game 1 as vindication for the first viewpoint. It might still end up that View 2 is closer to reality, hard to tell, but it's always nice to see a little confirmation for how you were arguing this series will go.