Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread III (Info. Post 1)

[HeartBreakKid]

In Hong Kong or Korea, you'd be criticized for not wearing a mask. The occasional white dude or stubborn old people are the only ones that don't wear one around here.

Same all around East Asia.

It's confusing because many health experts say wearing a surgical mask does no good, however it seems to be working well in Asia. There seems to be conflicting information about basic masks. Surgical masks have to be better than nothing though.

Masks aren't the main reason that East Asia might be dealing with the problem better - but it does make a difference. Reduces the chance of transmitting the virus to someone else.

[spacemonkey]

The governments saying that masks don't work are the governments who **** the bed and didn't/don't have enough masks for their medical professionals so they have to discourage the public from buying them up so they can try to cover their asses. (they can't)

The major talking points against using a mask to prevent infection (rather than spread) for the average Joe generally are:

1. People may touch their face more and fiddle with the mask
2. People don't know how to properly fit them
3. People don't know how to properly remove them

There is some truth to all of these claims, but if the world wasn't experiencing a severe mask shortage, would we really be discouraging the use of masks?

Pretty sure we all know the answer to that one.

And, yes, frontline medical professionals should definitely always have ample access to masks. That they don't is, uh, not an indictment on the population for buying and using masks, but on the government / healthcare systems for failing to ensure there would be enough in an emergency.

In the case of a mask shortage, priority almost certainly goes to medical frontline staff.

[AussieCeltic]

Australia is closing its borders to non residents from midnight tomorrow

Yeh but we're stupid enough to still have the footy on over the weekend.

I couldn't believe it last weekend when they played with full crowds. I'm dumbfounded that they're still playing this week even if it is with no crowds.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

Wow. There is 1 hospital bed per 5,500 in California. That doesn't include undocumented illegals.

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[Tomjas]

Australia is closing its borders to non residents from midnight tomorrow

Yeh but we're stupid enough to still have the footy on over the weekend.

I couldn't believe it last weekend when they played with full crowds. I'm dumbfounded that they're still playing this week even if it is with no crowds.

All about the TV $

[Catchall]

Catchall. In Utah. You said in a state of 3 mil, there were 12 more "positive cases" today. You understand, that's just from those who have been tested right?

Have all 3 mil been tested?

How many have been tested? Have you been tested?

If tests are limited, and 12 positives show up. How many do you think would have shown up TODAY if all 3 mil had been tested? Just the same number? 12?

You're comparing all the wrong numbers.

You don't have a grasp for what's going on, clearly. Each post you're displaying your lack of understanding of the details involved. They matter.

Roughly 1,000 people (with prominent symptoms) have been tested to garner the 63 positive diagnoses in Utah. If as many as 10% of the state's total population eventually had prominent symptoms and were tested, and if the same rate of Covid infection applied, there would be 18,000 positive cases against a state population of 3 million, equal to a 0.6% infection rate. Applying a 2% mortality rate to this population would result in 360 deaths.

What I've just described is a linear rate of infection rather than geometric.

I understand there is a fear of mass infection of Covid. What if 10% or more of the entire state's population eventually contracted the virus, and the 2% mortality rate were applied to a base of 300,000 people, resulting in 6,000 deaths. I think numbers like this are plausible in densely populated cities like New York, San Francisco and perhaps Seattle with significant Chinese populations having already seeded the infections, and I think those areas are going to bear the brunt of the casualties.

But New York, Seattle and San Francisco notwithstanding, I'd like more testing to take place and more data to be captured before dramatically less infected states shut down everything and wreck their local economies like they're doing.

In other words, I agree wholeheartedly that areas in Washington, New York and California should have measures in place to limit personal contact and travel to and from those areas. I don't agree that the same conditions apply to the entire country yet. These blanket, preventive measures are bearing a huge cost.

[chrismikayla]

Atlanta area hospitals are concerned about people flooding the hospitals, many who are not even sick, to get tested for coronavirus. This could be a disaster waiting to happen.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/people-with-no-symptoms-coronavirus-flooding-emergency-rooms/TYR6CI7QIZCY5O35MBNZS2FEAI/

[mcmurphy]

500,000 test kit are coming... from Italy
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/us-air-force-flew-half-million-coronavirus-test-kits-italy-tennessee/163879/?fbclid=IwAR1vzHDLyM7rXwnnHUmvbfUi90y8WIxnNjnpUvNaH44TiUaaLMgaxgDJb9o

“There’s multiple parts to testing,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Dr. Paul Friedrichs, the Joint Staff surgeon, said at the same briefing. “The first is the swabs that are used to collect the sample from the individual who’s being tested, then there’s a liquid … that you put the swab into. That’s what composed what we brought over from Italy.”

These types of swabs are made by companies in the U.S. and overseas, he said.

“This is a great example of how nations are working together to ensure that we’re meeting the global demand,” Friedrichs said.

While Goldfein did give specific details of the flight, sources, social media posts and public flight tracking data gave a glimpse into the mission, which began early Monday afternoon at Aviano Air Base in Italy and ended just after 1 a.m. local time in Memphis.

Similar missions are expected in the coming days as the military ramps up its support for pandemic-response efforts.

[Topofthekey]

500,000 test kit are coming... from Italy
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/us-air-force-flew-half-million-coronavirus-test-kits-italy-tennessee/163879/?fbclid=IwAR1vzHDLyM7rXwnnHUmvbfUi90y8WIxnNjnpUvNaH44TiUaaLMgaxgDJb9o

“There’s multiple parts to testing,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Dr. Paul Friedrichs, the Joint Staff surgeon, said at the same briefing. “The first is the swabs that are used to collect the sample from the individual who’s being tested, then there’s a liquid … that you put the swab into. That’s what composed what we brought over from Italy.”

These types of swabs are made by companies in the U.S. and overseas, he said.

“This is a great example of how nations are working together to ensure that we’re meeting the global demand,” Friedrichs said.

While Goldfein did give specific details of the flight, sources, social media posts and public flight tracking data gave a glimpse into the mission, which began early Monday afternoon at Aviano Air Base in Italy and ended just after 1 a.m. local time in Memphis.

Similar missions are expected in the coming days as the military ramps up its support for pandemic-response efforts.

Strange that Italy at the same time is also requesting, and not getting any, help from the EU

[Metallikid]

This is a tangent, but the stock crash is leading people to withdraw from funds and run on banks.

https://www.pymnts.com/cash/2020/nyc-bank-runs-short-big-bills-customers-hoard-cash/

Once that type of behavior becomes commonplace the banks will put daily restrictions on withdrawals just like it happened in Greece over ten years ago.

[mcmurphy]

500,000 test kit are coming... from Italy
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/us-air-force-flew-half-million-coronavirus-test-kits-italy-tennessee/163879/?fbclid=IwAR1vzHDLyM7rXwnnHUmvbfUi90y8WIxnNjnpUvNaH44TiUaaLMgaxgDJb9o

“There’s multiple parts to testing,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Dr. Paul Friedrichs, the Joint Staff surgeon, said at the same briefing. “The first is the swabs that are used to collect the sample from the individual who’s being tested, then there’s a liquid … that you put the swab into. That’s what composed what we brought over from Italy.”

These types of swabs are made by companies in the U.S. and overseas, he said.

“This is a great example of how nations are working together to ensure that we’re meeting the global demand,” Friedrichs said.

While Goldfein did give specific details of the flight, sources, social media posts and public flight tracking data gave a glimpse into the mission, which began early Monday afternoon at Aviano Air Base in Italy and ended just after 1 a.m. local time in Memphis.

Similar missions are expected in the coming days as the military ramps up its support for pandemic-response efforts.

Strange that Italy at the same time is also requesting, and not getting any, help from the EU

imho, it was not at all agreed with Italy

[SimonFish]

[gambitx777]

So I have to say people are miss guided when it comes to testing. This isn't a virus that doesn't go away. Such as hiv, hpv, hep hsv and so on. This is like the flu it will come and go. You don't run out and get tested for nothing durring flu season. You only go take a test if you've have a reason. Such as, you're sick, or you feel like you've been exposed to someone who has it for sure. Like in the nbas case these people over been in close courters for weeks now in and out every other day with people who have it. Getting tested just to get tested means nothing when it comes and goes, like the flu. The whole point is to slow this down. You can't stop it, just like you can't stop the wind and the waves but you can do something. We are doing something. This whole narrative that we do so little tests compared to smaller nation's, is silly. Don't waste the tests. Don't waste the man power. Don't waste the resources , unless you are sick or directly exposed to someone who has it. Hospitals and states and the gov are working as hard as they can. Do as much as you can to not overwhelm the hospitals and clinics.

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[gambitx777]

So the issue is masks is being used as a blanket term. Masks such as surgical masks and basic medical masks don't help against this because this are majorly used to prevent you from spreading your germs not preventing the germs getting in. Masks such as N95 masks and heavy duty industrial respiratory masks are what is effective.

The governments saying that masks don't work are the governments who **** the bed and didn't/don't have enough masks for their medical professionals so they have to discourage the public from buying them up so they can try to cover their asses. (they can't)

The major talking points against using a mask to prevent infection (rather than spread) for the average Joe generally are:

1. People may touch their face more and fiddle with the mask
2. People don't know how to properly fit them
3. People don't know how to properly remove them

There is some truth to all of these claims, but if the world wasn't experiencing a severe mask shortage, would we really be discouraging the use of masks?

Pretty sure we all know the answer to that one.

And, yes, frontline medical professionals should definitely always have ample access to masks. That they don't is, uh, not an indictment on the population for buying and using masks, but on the government / healthcare systems for failing to ensure there would be enough in an emergency.

In the case of a mask shortage, priority almost certainly goes to medical frontline staff.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[slamilcarBarca]

who is ready for this?

Arrivals in Hong Kong are now required to wear an electronic wristband and download an app to monitor their movements. An alert will be sent to the Department of Health and the police if a wristband is broken or the user’s smartphone is disconnected or moves away from the quarantine dwelling, according to the government's chief information officer.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075880/beijing-hong-kong-face-second-coronavirus-onslaught-quarantine

[theonlyclutch]

Same all around East Asia.

It's confusing because many health experts say wearing a surgical mask does no good, however it seems to be working well in Asia. There seems to be conflicting information about basic masks. Surgical masks have to be better than nothing though.

Masks aren't the main reason that East Asia might be dealing with the problem better - but it does make a difference. Reduces the chance of transmitting the virus to someone else.

Well, frankly, in the place where SARS hit the hardest (~300 deaths/1800 cases in HK) the health experts there do strongly recommend wearing masks as a way to stop the spread/prevent infection, so I'd trust they have a good reason for saying this.

It also helps that young working adults (20-35) who may not be so concerned about this in EU/US are far more likely to be living with their parents in East Asia. Therefore they will tend to be far more concerned of getting infected simply because they don't want to infect their parents, who are almost certainly more high-risk groups.

[Richfield]

China reporting no new local infections reported for the first time. The new cases involved people who came to China from elsewhere.

Might not be that way tomorrow (statistical guess), but definitely a significant milestone.

sources: Al Jazeera English and New York Times

[spacemonkey]

So the issue is masks is being used as a blanket term. Masks such as surgical masks and basic medical masks don't help against this because this are majorly used to prevent you from spreading your germs not preventing the germs getting in. Masks such as N95 masks and heavy duty industrial respiratory masks are what is effective.

Some data disputes the concreteness of this statement:

Between September 23, 2008, and December 8, 2008, 478 nurses were assessed for eligibility and 446 nurses were enrolled and randomly assigned the intervention; 225 were allocated to receive surgical masks and 221 to N95 respirators. Influenza infection occurred in 50 nurses (23.6%) in the surgical mask group and in 48 (22.9%) in the N95 respirator group (absolute risk difference, −0.73%; 95% CI, −8.8% to 7.3%; P = .86), the lower confidence limit being inside the noninferiority limit of −9%.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/184819

When worn consistently:

In an adjusted analysis of compliant subjects, masks as a group had protective efficacy in excess of 80% against clinical influenza-like illness. The efficacy against proven viral infection and between P2 masks (57%) and surgical masks (33%) was non-significant.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(08)01008-4/fulltext

Masks, in the grand scheme of things, may be less important than maintaining proper hand hygiene and not chewing your nails after you've touched a public restroom doorknob.

But there are other effects: Normalizing masks means that those who are infected and know they are, and for whatever reason have to leave home, do not feel a stigma for wearing a mask and are more likely to do so, thereby preventing spread.

As it is, you are still ridiculed and/or ostracized for wearing a mask in public in much of the West, encouraging you not to do so. And on top of that, there is a mask shortage, which just makes things even worse.

[spacemonkey]

who is ready for this?

Arrivals in Hong Kong are now required to wear an electronic wristband and download an app to monitor their movements. An alert will be sent to the Department of Health and the police if a wristband is broken or the user’s smartphone is disconnected or moves away from the quarantine dwelling, according to the government's chief information officer.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075880/beijing-hong-kong-face-second-coronavirus-onslaught-quarantine

Check this one out:

Read on Twitter

Like, I guess it's great all this infrastructure is there to make sure people are adhering to quarantine, but, like, all this infrastructure was there before the breakout.

It's been there for years.

[michaelm]

It's confusing because many health experts say wearing a surgical mask does no good, however it seems to be working well in Asia. There seems to be conflicting information about basic masks. Surgical masks have to be better than nothing though.

Masks aren't the main reason that East Asia might be dealing with the problem better - but it does make a difference. Reduces the chance of transmitting the virus to someone else.

Well, frankly, in the place where SARS hit the hardest (~300 deaths/1800 cases in HK) the health experts there do strongly recommend wearing masks as a way to stop the spread/prevent infection, so I'd trust they have a good reason for saying this.

Surgical masks don’t protect the wearer, you need high tech expensive masks for that which suffocate you if worn for more than an hour and a half, they do provide some protection against spreading infection to others, so all those people I tended to scoff at all these years were actually helping me rather than themselves and probably harking back to the SARS virus when such masks were recommended.