2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[Big J]

Warriors have a good record because they have the best defense on the league and around 10 productive players that have been largely available. It's not all Curry gravity as you tell us. Curry carries in large part the offense but this is true for most players that are in the running for the MVP. ON/OFF is the most context based stat in the game. What about other metrics? What do you say about the fact that Curry has about 10 PER less than Giannis?

Warriors have 10 productive players because they all get wide open shots all game long due to Curry’s gravity. Watch. The. Games.

If you look the top 4 teams. They have likely least games missed due to Covid or injuries. Any one have that data?

Dude, they have been missing a future first ballot Hall of Famer, and their top 2 pick all year.

[SpreeS]

I think that winning the 'chip got rid of any voter fatigue around Giannis. If Bucks didn't win i don't think he'd ever win another MVP without a championship.

Bucks record will change when Jrue is back in the line-up (getting the coach back will also help markedly). Lack of ball handlers has killed the Bucks as much as anything, and just such inconsistency in the line-up, you can see plays and schemes not being executed as they should be. No team has put more 5 man combo's on the floor this season than the Bucks, but as they don't ever get much attention in the media or even on this forum, it tends to go unnoticed. People just look at record without the context.

.

All 5 TOP teams in the East had the same injuries/Covid issues and Bucks is the 4th in standings. PHI with one more win will catch them too.

Derozan 25-9
Embiid 20-8
KD 22-11
Giannis 22-12

I could forget DEN records due injuries playing against way healthier the West teams, but MIL record is a problem.

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

[SpreeS]

Also MIL had by far the easiest schedule. I thought it was Lakers…,

[MaNs]

.

All 5 TOP teams in the East had the same injuries/Covid issues and Bucks is the 4th in standings. PHI with one more win will catch them too.

Derozan 25-9
Embiid 20-8
KD 22-11
Giannis 22-12

I could forget DEN records due injuries playing against way healthier the West teams, but MIL record is a problem.

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

You guys are comical. I will return to this thread when people are talking about the real candidates, who you know have been playing good ball all year and recently, like Giannis, Durant, Derozan, Jokic and Embiid. As long as this thread is a smearing campaign against stand-out players by fans of a 22 PER player this year its better to close it. They are is enough cultish behavior in the internet already.

[SpreeS]

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

You guys are comical. I will return to this thread when people are talking about the real candidates, who you know have been playing good ball all year and recently, like Giannis, Durant, Derozan, Jokic and Embiid. As long as this thread is a smearing campaign against stand-out players by fans of a 22 PER player this year its better to close it. They are is enough cultish behavior in the internet already.

What?

1. I talk about Embiid vs Giannis at first
2. PER is the last adv stat to look at

[MaNs]

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

You guys are comical. I will return to this thread when people are talking about the real candidates, who you know have been playing good ball all year and recently, like Giannis, Durant, Derozan, Jokic and Embiid. As long as this thread is a smearing campaign against stand-out players by fans of a 22 PER player this year its better to close it. They are is enough cultish behavior in the internet already.

What?

1. I talk about Embiid vs Giannis at first
2. PER is the last adv stat to look at

Nah man forget it. I vote for Chris Paul. He has the eye of the tiger. All Phoenix players are just bums Chris Paul does everything with his eye of the tiger.

[cpower]

I find it deconcerning that Curry's fans disregard almost all of the stats and any serious observation of the game to promote Curry as an MVP, instead of an analysis they presente us with obscure context-based stats and poetry on Currys game. I would say that they remind me of Kobe's fans when they tried to argue around 2010 that Kobe was still better than Lebron. Though, they had a better case and were more reasonable as Kobe was much closer to Lebron statistically than Curry is to Jokic and Giannis right now. Also kobe had the reputation of a better defender and leader than Lebron at the point.
Anyway, if it is to give to Curry for gravity and team record(the only serious argument in his favor) I propose to give it to Chris Paul as a carreer accomplishment. And let's make some poetry as good Chris Paul fans. If Curry has gravity then Chris Paul have the "eye of the tiger". Just by the look in his eyes he puts fear in the opponents. Don't believe in PPG, RPG, PER, BPM, WS and the like. They don't account for Chris Paul's eye of the tiger. Why do you think that Suns got good defence? Do you think that Ayton, Crowder and Bridges are a potent defensive frontcourt? You are mistaken. They are bums. It's Chris Paul's eye of the tiger that does the work, even when he is in the perimeter the opponent will lose a lay-up because he fears Chris Paul. On offense? Will you tell me that the whole Suns team is potent offensively? No, it's all Chris Paul - the opponents are trembling of Chris Paul's eye of the tiger when Booker makes an easy 3. What do you say realgm? Curry's gravity or Chris Paul's eye of the tiger.
In a more serious note now I think that this is a rare year for MVP award as the most productive players play in teams with many problems ( mostly injuries) and they don't have formidable records.The best teams are teams who are winning as teams thanks to the sheer number of good players they have and their top players don't stand out. For the moment I think GIannis is the frontrunner as he has the best combination of impact and record of all the top players, followed by Durant and Jokic. If the Bucks continue to have injury problems and keep losing games maybe he falls off . Durant is a strong candidate and maybe Embid becomes one. For Curry to win it he will have to play really well (as he did in the beginning of the year) for the rest of the way.

P.S - BTW I agree that Curry has "gravity" in the sense that he attracts defenders in the perimeter. But all great players have such advantages. For example Embid destroys small teams(many teams in the league), Gobert shuts down the post and Giannis and Jokic offer a unique combination of skills.

you missed the key aspect the analysis.. why do you think the Warriors is having the best record of the game so far without Klay? It's Steph, he is our offense. Yes his shooting has not been otherworldly but his on/off has always been amazing and led the team to beat some of the tougher components like Nets, Mem, Suns and Jazz...Not to mention he had to operate most of the time with 3 bad shooters on the court in Dray, Looney and Poole (33% on three). Can you imagine the level of pressure he has to deal with? The other player who has equal or bigger impact is Jokic but he is penalized by the team record. KD and Giannis are looking good on paper but the impact is just not on the same level, e.g. Jrue is your on/off leader for most of the game says a lot. Just look at the record, it tells everything you need to know really.

Lastly lets conclude with his insane on/off
ON: 71 Win pace
OFF: 26 Win pace

Warriors have a good record because they have the best defense on the league and around 10 productive players that have been largely available. It's not all Curry gravity as you tell us. Curry carries in large part the offense but this is true for most players that are in the running for the MVP. ON/OFF is the most context based stat in the game. What about other metrics? What do you say about the fact that Curry has about 10 PER less than Giannis?

because PER is the most single useless thing on earth. Just look at it , Warriors have 3 players higher than 15 (Curry 22, Wiggins 17 and GP2 21) and they are 30-9. On the bucks, you have 5 players higher than 15 (Giannis 32, Jrue 20, Middleton 17, Portis 20 and Cousins 20) and they are 26-16... so looks like the higher you are with PER the worse you are getting as a team. Maybe that's another reason Giannis is not winning the MVP? gotta get his PER down to 15 first

[AmIWrongDude]

I wish there was an MVP award and a Most Outstanding Player award.

MVP would stay the same where it’s usually best player on one of the top seeds but the MOP would be the guy that has the best year regardless of his team.

For example: Steph or KD would be MVP as of now but Jokic would be MOP. The only caveat is that there would need to be a way to separate impactful from the empty stats aka people would have to actually watch a lot of games so I guess it probably wouldn’t work.

[ForeverTFC]

I think that winning the 'chip got rid of any voter fatigue around Giannis. If Bucks didn't win i don't think he'd ever win another MVP without a championship.

Bucks record will change when Jrue is back in the line-up (getting the coach back will also help markedly). Lack of ball handlers has killed the Bucks as much as anything, and just such inconsistency in the line-up, you can see plays and schemes not being executed as they should be. No team has put more 5 man combo's on the floor this season than the Bucks, but as they don't ever get much attention in the media or even on this forum, it tends to go unnoticed. People just look at record without the context.

.

All 5 TOP teams in the East had the same injuries/Covid issues and Bucks is the 4th in standings. PHI with one more win will catch them too.

Derozan 25-9
Embiid 20-8
KD 22-11
Giannis 22-12

I could forget DEN records due injuries playing against way healthier the West teams, but MIL record is a problem.

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

You both have a point. Ignore Covid. If you just look at wins lost due to injuries, Philly and Bucks are similar even though Bucks have had more injuries. But Bucks have lost the most wins due to injuries.

But, if we layer in Kyrie for the Nets and Simmons for the Sixers, and the awful wave the Bulls went through with Covid, it's not hard to believe that all of these teams have dealt with about the same (if not more) impact on missing players as compared to the Bucks. You can argue that prolonged absence for Simmons and Kyrie is better than having to start so many different lineups and I wouldn't necessarily disagree. But he can argue the impact of missing Simmons or Kyrie is far more and I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that either.

[shoresy69]

I wish there was an MVP award and a Most Outstanding Player award.

MVP would stay the same where it’s usually best player on one of the top seeds but the MOP would be the guy that has the best year regardless of his team.

For example: Steph or KD would be MVP as of now but Jokic would be MOP. The only caveat is that there would need to be a way to separate impactful from the empty stats aka people would have to actually watch a lot of games so I guess it probably wouldn’t work.

I don't think watching games would help people that much in terms of determining impact. You have people that do that for a living and even they don't fully comprehend exactly what makes players valuable. And that's with an army of analytics behind them to contextualize the qualitative and quantitative. Until we get a massive breakthrough in basketball analysis that goes beyond formulas based on box score stats and relative lineup data, team record will always be used by voters to fill in that knowledge gap.

[AmIWrongDude]

I wish there was an MVP award and a Most Outstanding Player award.

MVP would stay the same where it’s usually best player on one of the top seeds but the MOP would be the guy that has the best year regardless of his team.

For example: Steph or KD would be MVP as of now but Jokic would be MOP. The only caveat is that there would need to be a way to separate impactful from the empty stats aka people would have to actually watch a lot of games so I guess it probably wouldn’t work.

I don't think watching games would help people that much in terms of determining impact. You have people that do that for a living and even they don't fully comprehend exactly what makes players valuable. And that's with an army of analytics behind them to contextualize the qualitative and quantitative. Until we get a massive breakthrough in basketball analysis that goes beyond formulas based on box score stats and relative lineup data, team record will always be used by voters to fill in that knowledge gap.

I mean we have a million different stats at this point. I don’t think any stat can ever truly measure impact just like us watching games doesn’t really mean much either.

I go by stats for the most part because a lack of other options. I like to think if I watch a guy enough I can kinda understand his game but again it doesn’t mean anything when it comes to impact. I only watch certain games.

NBA players definitely favor players that go off against them when they play eachother. That’s natural. I think stats are reliable for the most part but the combo of stats and the eye test is where u can see that certain stat getters don’t really translate to wins or even positive impact.

Empty stats is a definitely a real thing but not in certain cases

[SpreeS]

Team record with 500 AND ABOVE Teams, Total games and SOS

PHO 14-5 G19 23th
GSW 14-7 G21 16th
UTA 13-7 G20 25th
CHI 12-7 G19 28th
MEM 16-9 G25 18th
MIA 14-10 G24 24th
BKR 10-10 G20 27th
MIL 9-10 G19 30th
PHI 9-10 G19 22th

LAL 6-12 G18 29th

Looking at these numbers MIA and MEM are real deals if we consider injuries, sos, record with top teams. BKR and MIL are looking not good. The best team is GSW due PHO was way injury free and had easier sos.

[shoresy69]

I wish there was an MVP award and a Most Outstanding Player award.

MVP would stay the same where it’s usually best player on one of the top seeds but the MOP would be the guy that has the best year regardless of his team.

For example: Steph or KD would be MVP as of now but Jokic would be MOP. The only caveat is that there would need to be a way to separate impactful from the empty stats aka people would have to actually watch a lot of games so I guess it probably wouldn’t work.

I don't think watching games would help people that much in terms of determining impact. You have people that do that for a living and even they don't fully comprehend exactly what makes players valuable. And that's with an army of analytics behind them to contextualize the qualitative and quantitative. Until we get a massive breakthrough in basketball analysis that goes beyond formulas based on box score stats and relative lineup data, team record will always be used by voters to fill in that knowledge gap.

I mean we have a million different stats at this point. I don’t think any stat can ever truly measure impact just like us watching games doesn’t really mean much either.

I go by stats for the most part because a lack of other options. I like to think if I watch a guy enough I can kinda understand his game but again it doesn’t mean anything when it comes to impact. I only watch certain games.

NBA players definitely favor players that go off against them when they play eachother. That’s natural. I think stats are reliable for the most part but the combo of stats and the eye test is where u can see that certain stat getters don’t really translate to wins or even positive impact.

Empty stats is a definitely a real thing but not in certain cases

I think the stats we have are extremely helpful and we've come a long way even in the past 5 years. But I don't think voters at large fully embrace them, especially with so many competing metrics floating around. It's hard to put too much stock in one metric when you're not sure if it's really better than these other ones that someone else used.

I think until we get something more concrete voters will just watch games and try to use their eye test to attribute value, and reconcile that with team record and some stats (whether basic or advanced).

Empty stats do exist to a degree but I'm not even sure how they can be determined. Booker and Trae are prime examples, labeled as empty stat guys but turns out they can perform and lead teams in the playoffs when there are solid players around them.

[SpreeS]

TOP8 teams records between each other

GSW 7-2
MIA 9-3
MEM 5-3
CHI 3-3
MIL 3-3
PHO 3-4
UTA 1-5
BKR 0-8

Again MIA and MEM are on TOP. BKR just terrible.

[_NoMas]

Feels like all of the top candidates have been falling over themselves in the face - meanwhile Embiid is coming up fast and is definitely top 5, if not top 3 now…

[JN61]

Also MIL had by far the easiest schedule. I thought it was Lakers…,

On paper it was probably Lakers but because Lakers lost to all these teams from retro perspective their schedule was actually harder perking their opponents' records. Meanwhile Bucks made their opponents actively worse.

[kuclas]

Warriors have 10 productive players because they all get wide open shots all game long due to Curry’s gravity. Watch. The. Games.

If you look the top 4 teams. They have likely least games missed due to Covid or injuries. Any one have that data?

Dude, they have been missing a future first ballot Hall of Famer, and their top 2 pick all year.

Klay hasn’t played in 2 plus years.

Embiid doesn’t have Simmons all year. No one is taking that into consideration. No one is taking Jokic not having Murray all season either. (And. Mpj most of the season.

And wiseman isn’t much of a contribution.

I’m sayin teams like Utah had very little Covid players missed. Now they start losing games gobert missed with Covid and look they start losing games.

My point is teams like sixers have had their entire roster hit with Covid multiple points in the season. Then nuggets have Murray out all season plus Covid. Hawks have been hit with both injuries and Covid.

Teams like golden state the suns have been fortunate not to have a lot of guys injured or hit with Covid.

[MaNs]

you missed the key aspect the analysis.. why do you think the Warriors is having the best record of the game so far without Klay? It's Steph, he is our offense. Yes his shooting has not been otherworldly but his on/off has always been amazing and led the team to beat some of the tougher components like Nets, Mem, Suns and Jazz...Not to mention he had to operate most of the time with 3 bad shooters on the court in Dray, Looney and Poole (33% on three). Can you imagine the level of pressure he has to deal with? The other player who has equal or bigger impact is Jokic but he is penalized by the team record. KD and Giannis are looking good on paper but the impact is just not on the same level, e.g. Jrue is your on/off leader for most of the game says a lot. Just look at the record, it tells everything you need to know really.

Lastly lets conclude with his insane on/off
ON: 71 Win pace
OFF: 26 Win pace

Warriors have a good record because they have the best defense on the league and around 10 productive players that have been largely available. It's not all Curry gravity as you tell us. Curry carries in large part the offense but this is true for most players that are in the running for the MVP. ON/OFF is the most context based stat in the game. What about other metrics? What do you say about the fact that Curry has about 10 PER less than Giannis?

because PER is the most single useless thing on earth. Just look at it , Warriors have 3 players higher than 15 (Curry 22, Wiggins 17 and GP2 21) and they are 30-9. On the bucks, you have 5 players higher than 15 (Giannis 32, Jrue 20, Middleton 17, Portis 20 and Cousins 20) and they are 26-16... so looks like the higher you are with PER the worse you are getting as a team. Maybe that's another reason Giannis is not winning the MVP? gotta get his PER down to 15 first

No stat is useless if you know how to interpret it. What is useless is the analysis of those who have no basic understanding whatsover. And btw all your numbers are wrong GSW has 7 players over 15 per(6 if we dont account for weatherspoon but you for some reason account for Cousins with his few games) and 10 players over 14 per. Anyway take a trip in basketball-reference and check what is going on there you and other Curry fans would learn a lot from this site.
This is my last post talking about Curry it gets boring. We are having 5-6 players who have had amazing performances this month and instead of talking about them in the MVP thread we are discussing about the "gravity" of Curry who is in a slump. I have never seen something as ridiculous before in this site and i would hope the moderators would be doing something about it.

[kuclas]

TOP8 teams records between each other

GSW 7-2
MIA 9-3
MEM 5-3
CHI 3-3
MIL 3-3
PHO 3-4
UTA 1-5
BKR 0-8

Again MIA and MEM are on TOP. BKR just terrible.

Makes Miami a dangerous team. Since they bam has been out a while. Butler is out a lot of games.

So if they are winning without their two best players. They got a lot of depth. Bodes well for them in the playoffs.

[DutchManDanFan]

Spoiler:

.

All 5 TOP teams in the East had the same injuries/Covid issues and Bucks is the 4th in standings. PHI with one more win will catch them too.

Derozan 25-9
Embiid 20-8
KD 22-11
Giannis 22-12

I could forget DEN records due injuries playing against way healthier the West teams, but MIL record is a problem.

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

Games of Chicago have been postponed. Bucks have played all their games while missing players all the time. It might be a good thing in the end though, but not for Giannis' MVP chances.