2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (Game 1: Thursday June 6th)

[Mr B]

Celtics were 5-5 vs top 5 in the West in regular season
Mavs were 4-11 vs top 4 in the West in regular season

Celtics 2-0 vs Mavs in regular season
Mavs 0-2 vs Mavs in regular season

Celtics 34-15 vs teams over .500
Mavs 25-27 vs teams over .500

Celtics 12-2 in the playoffs
Mavs 12-5 in the playoffs

You were trying to discredit the Celtics when all the metrics fall in favour of the Celtics.

Thats not saying the Celtics are guaranteed to win but people here trying to diminish what the Celtics have done when they’ve done nothing but dominate the whole season is **** hilarious to me.

In fairness, that 5-5 against top teams in the West becomes 3-5 when one removes the Mavs.

Still better than 4-11.

On the other hand, it's 3-3 if we exclude the Nuggets too, and the Mavs did 12-5 against those same teams in the playoffs, which neatly balances their 4-11 in the regular season. I.e., the claim that the Mavs are peaking at the right time gets good support from recent results.

But to your main point -- yeah, the only well-supported criticisms of the Celtics boils down to claims that they should have been yet more dominant than they were.

The Mavs are definitely peaking at the right time of year. The 3 teams they beat picked the wrong time of the year to go into a lull.

There's just no way the Celtics offense is going to be contained across 7 games. This idea that the Dallas defense is gonna hold them back is laughable to me.

Luka and Irving need to probably score 80 combined with 15 dimes to keep pace.

And you think the Boston offense is just going to run all over Dallas and this series is a sweep?

[Mr B]

Yes but I think it's ridiculous for this to he a 50/50 proposition essentially.

I think given everything we know, Boston is still the clear favorite.

Boston lost fewer games (0-1) and had a bigger margin of victory (6.7-5.8) but the key is Dallas looked better in their CF wins. That’s what this boils down to really.

I wonder how their team would handle a team with a offense as potent as the 2024 Indiana Pacers?

Oh wait. We actually have an answer for that.

Dallas lost Feb 25th 133 to 111.

Dallas lost March 5th 137 to 120


Both with PJ Washington on the roster.

Blah blah rotations ain't set blah blah regular season no one is trying, blah blah they haven't gelled.

Mavs played well but to **** on the Celtics for their efforts against the Pacers when Dallas couldn't contain their offense as recently two months ago is why I find it ridiculous to say the Celtics are in trouble based on how they've played vs the Mavs.

Based on that logic the the Nuggets beat the crap out of the Celtics in their last matchup and the Wolves beat the Nuggets and the Mavs beat the Wolves so that obviously means the Mavs are better than the Celtics right?

See how silly that logic sounds. That’s what your post sounded like.

[Mr B]

It can't be understated that the Celtics already beat Dallas without KP.

He's not needed. He's a luxury.

It's a one game sample size (post trade) and the Mavs were in a pretty bad slid then, I'm not sure how accurate/important that is. They have won 7 in a row after the trade, and I remember we thought we were the shiznit, then bamm, we lost 111-133 to the Pacers, 119-121 aganst the Cavs, then we won one, but the Raps scored 125 on us even in that game, and then we lost to you guys 110-138, but then also lost to the Sixers 116-120 and then again to the Pacers 120-137. So that was EASILY the worst defensive form for that team during that two weeks, for whatever reason. That team wouldn't even have advanced against the Clippers. But I guess it can still show that the Mavs was, and maybe can still be the more inconsistent defensive team.

TBF Mavs fans are saying literally every metric we can use to compare these teams isn't accurate or relevant because they basically all favor the Celtics

No it’s because the Mavs are a completely different team than they were for 2/3 of the season. They are also playing a much better than they were at the start of the playoffs. So trying to use any metric from the regular season is irrelevant. This is not the same Mavs team that Boston faced at any point during the season.

[Texas Chuck]

So some interesting actual things I'm interested in seeing:

Where is KP from a physical/rhythm standpoint? Having two centers who space is a real problem for Dallas who want to play their traditional centers and want to keep them near the rim. Plus with as much as Luka and Kyrie like to attack the basket and the best lob threats in the game, your best rim protector is vital.

Can Derrick Jones handle the physicality of Tatum/Brown? I assume he gets Brown as his primary matchup with PJ on Tatum. Can Josh Green guard either of them in spot minutes? Can PJ stay out of foul trouble something he has struggled with? Does Luka rise to the challenge and take on of them at times?

Which guard does Kidd trust in this series? Is it still Hardy or does he want the bigger Exum for defense? Does Tim Hardaway get another shot or has Kidd just totally given up on him?

Where is Maxi Kleber in all of this? How healthy is that shoulder? Feels like whether its at center or PF he's going to be needed in this series. Can he play half the game? Will he take open shots? Will Boston guard him either way? He's an inconsistent shooter at best, but he's had some huge playoff games. Could he have one and swing a game?

Which coach can get the other one to blink first? Will either?

Can Hauser/Pritchard play enough to buy rest for the stars or will Dallas hunt them relentlessly and get them off the court? They managed nearly 36 combined minutes in the East. Can they replicate that?

[165bows]

That’s what a lot of this boils down to, is smaller more recent sample size vs larger sample with a bigger time window.

Every team and player has hotter and colder streaks. There have been several good examples lately, eg the Pacers mentioned above had the best offense of all time for part of the season, last year was the Kings. Dallas has been playing very very well lately no doubt. Boston had a torrid streak to get to the finals in 2022. Miami’s finals appearance last season also.

NBA and college basketball it’s possible to ride a very strong streak deep into a tournament, but it’s not like hockey.

Basketball the stronger team tends to win titles over the streaking team quite a bit more frequently. I’ll concede Dallas has a real shot to win but trends don’t continue ad infinitum they balance out over time.

[Mavrelous]

For the Mavs to have a chance, they need 20 MPG of Exum, Luka and Kyrie will have to work on both ends and will need more rest, if Ecum can give Luka 15 minutes breather and wing defense another 5-10 minutes, it'd be massive.

[165bows]

So some interesting actual things I'm interested in seeing:

Where is KP from a physical/rhythm standpoint? Having two centers who space is a real problem for Dallas who want to play their traditional centers and want to keep them near the rim. Plus with as much as Luka and Kyrie like to attack the basket and the best lob threats in the game, your best rim protector is vital.

Can Derrick Jones handle the physicality of Tatum/Brown? I assume he gets Brown as his primary matchup with PJ on Tatum. Can Josh Green guard either of them in spot minutes? Can PJ stay out of foul trouble something he has struggled with? Does Luka rise to the challenge and take on of them at times?

Which guard does Kidd trust in this series? Is it still Hardy or does he want the bigger Exum for defense? Does Tim Hardaway get another shot or has Kidd just totally given up on him?

Where is Maxi Kleber in all of this? How healthy is that shoulder? Feels like whether its at center or PF he's going to be needed in this series. Can he play half the game? Will he take open shots? Will Boston guard him either way? He's an inconsistent shooter at best, but he's had some huge playoff games. Could he have one and swing a game?

Which coach can get the other one to blink first? Will either?

Can Hauser/Pritchard play enough to buy rest for the stars or will Dallas hunt them relentlessly and get them off the court? They managed nearly 36 combined minutes in the East. Can they replicate that?

Lot of good questions here - I think KP is open ended we will just have to wait and see.

A few thoughts from the other side - could be wrong but I think they put Brown on Luka with some real frequency, Brown is best as an on ball defender and has good size. White-Irving and then use Holiday’s stronger help defense on Jones. But they will vary a lot I’m sure.

On the bench I think this is a better matchup for Hauser who struggled with Indiana’s pace and didn’t shoot well. So his shot coming back is a big factor. Also the Pritchard/Exum matchup I don’t love due to the size mismatch. But I do wonder if Pritchard’s better mobility might scale well against Irving so maybe they game plan it that way instead.

My other relevant thought is that Mazzulla will prob go to the bench a lot less than Kidd who seems to like a longer rotation. As you said the PP/Hauser duo got 30+ minutes in prior series but if Porzingis plays it will cut a ton of that out and I think Boston will lean heavily on it’s top 6 for really big minutes.

So that leads to this weird dynamic where Dallas is more dependent on a couple of guys on offense and their stamina but I also think it goes the other way in that Boston will tend to rely on fewer guys total guys playing more minutes so that issue hits them a different way.

[Jaqua92]

What's interesting here is that Tatum has low-key been a top 3 player all playoffs. The only thing sub standard is his 3 point shooting right now. 29%.

He's still giving us 26/10/6 this post season. However, if his 3 point shooting returns to "average", or rather, if he was hitting the 3 at a normal clip this post season, he'd be giving us 28/10/6 on 60%ts this post season.

He's also doing that with elite defense. If Tatum's 3pt shot returns to his norm, there's a good shot he gives the Mavs a good 29/10/6 this series.

He's due for good 3pt shooting, and if he gets his rhythm going even just above average this series, he's gonna give the Celtics like 30/10/6 with elite defense.

With Doncic a little bit injured, Tatum WILL outplay him a few games if his 3pt shot comes back.

Hauser has also been ice cold from 3. And he's a 40% 3pt shooter.

[Johnny Bball]

Why the **** is the start of the Finals delayed until Thursday. Stupid.

[The Corey's]

In fairness, that 5-5 against top teams in the West becomes 3-5 when one removes the Mavs.

Still better than 4-11.

On the other hand, it's 3-3 if we exclude the Nuggets too, and the Mavs did 12-5 against those same teams in the playoffs, which neatly balances their 4-11 in the regular season. I.e., the claim that the Mavs are peaking at the right time gets good support from recent results.

But to your main point -- yeah, the only well-supported criticisms of the Celtics boils down to claims that they should have been yet more dominant than they were.

The Mavs are definitely peaking at the right time of year. The 3 teams they beat picked the wrong time of the year to go into a lull.

There's just no way the Celtics offense is going to be contained across 7 games. This idea that the Dallas defense is gonna hold them back is laughable to me.

Luka and Irving need to probably score 80 combined with 15 dimes to keep pace.

And you think the Boston offense is just going to run all over Dallas and this series is a sweep?

Boston is gonna do what they been doing all season and have done to the Mavs over and over again. Yes sir. Unapologetically.

[The Corey's]

Boston lost fewer games (0-1) and had a bigger margin of victory (6.7-5.8) but the key is Dallas looked better in their CF wins. That’s what this boils down to really.

I wonder how their team would handle a team with a offense as potent as the 2024 Indiana Pacers?

Oh wait. We actually have an answer for that.

Dallas lost Feb 25th 133 to 111.

Dallas lost March 5th 137 to 120


Both with PJ Washington on the roster.

Blah blah rotations ain't set blah blah regular season no one is trying, blah blah they haven't gelled.

Mavs played well but to **** on the Celtics for their efforts against the Pacers when Dallas couldn't contain their offense as recently two months ago is why I find it ridiculous to say the Celtics are in trouble based on how they've played vs the Mavs.

Based on that logic the the Nuggets beat the crap out of the Celtics in their last matchup and the Wolves beat the Nuggets and the Mavs beat the Wolves so that obviously means the Mavs are better than the Celtics right?

See how silly that logic sounds. That’s what your post sounded like.

The nuggets were the only team that could beat the Celtics. Thet had the big man that could score at will from anywhere on the court.

[The Corey's]

It's a one game sample size (post trade) and the Mavs were in a pretty bad slid then, I'm not sure how accurate/important that is. They have won 7 in a row after the trade, and I remember we thought we were the shiznit, then bamm, we lost 111-133 to the Pacers, 119-121 aganst the Cavs, then we won one, but the Raps scored 125 on us even in that game, and then we lost to you guys 110-138, but then also lost to the Sixers 116-120 and then again to the Pacers 120-137. So that was EASILY the worst defensive form for that team during that two weeks, for whatever reason. That team wouldn't even have advanced against the Clippers. But I guess it can still show that the Mavs was, and maybe can still be the more inconsistent defensive team.

TBF Mavs fans are saying literally every metric we can use to compare these teams isn't accurate or relevant because they basically all favor the Celtics

No it’s because the Mavs are a completely different team than they were for 2/3 of the season. They are also playing a much better than they were at the start of the playoffs. So trying to use any metric from the regular season is irrelevant. This is not the same Mavs team that Boston faced at any point during the season.

The Mavs aren't good enough to beat the Celtics. There isn't a reasonable person on earth who thinks that.

This ya but attitude going one way is old dawg.

[Castle Black]

Read on Twitter

[The Corey's]

Read on Twitter

It's been very interesting to see this narrative develop.

This is the same Luka who is constantly at odds with patrons in the stands because they hurt his little feelings.

Over and over we see this guy crying over some **** some rich slob on the sidelines whispered into his ear.

[BeiBeau]

What's interesting here is that Tatum has low-key been a top 3 player all playoffs. The only thing sub standard is his 3 point shooting right now. 29%.

He's still giving us 26/10/6 this post season. However, if his 3 point shooting returns to "average", or rather, if he was hitting the 3 at a normal clip this post season, he'd be giving us 28/10/6 on 60%ts this post season.

He's also doing that with elite defense. If Tatum's 3pt shot returns to his norm, there's a good shot he gives the Mavs a good 29/10/6 this series.

He's due for good 3pt shooting, and if he gets his rhythm going even just above average this series, he's gonna give the Celtics like 30/10/6 with elite defense.

With Doncic a little bit injured, Tatum WILL outplay him a few games if his 3pt shot comes back.

Hauser has also been ice cold from 3. And he's a 40% 3pt shooter.

Luka
Shai
Jokic
Mitchell
Brunson

There is no world in which Tatum has been a top 3 player in the playoffs.

[BeiBeau]

Read on Twitter

It's been very interesting to see this narrative develop.

This is the same Luka who is constantly at odds with patrons in the stands because they hurt his little feelings.

Over and over we see this guy crying over some **** some rich slob on the sidelines whispered into his ear.

Why are you such a sensitive guy?

Luka just loves to **** talk. Boston fans are not going to be able to contain themselves and Luka is gonna use it as fuel.

[The Corey's]

Read on Twitter

It's been very interesting to see this narrative develop.

This is the same Luka who is constantly at odds with patrons in the stands because they hurt his little feelings.

Over and over we see this guy crying over some **** some rich slob on the sidelines whispered into his ear.

Why are you such a sensitive guy?

Luka just loves to **** talk. Boston fans are not going to be able to contain themselves and Luka is gonna use it as fuel.

I'm sensitive because I know that crying into someone's ears doesn't actually make them better at basketball?

Luka isn't the guy you need to worry about. Irving is the one who turtles.

Luka would be undefeated if heckling inspired him to score baskets he otherwise would have missed.

[TinmanZBoy]

So some interesting actual things I'm interested in seeing:

Where is KP from a physical/rhythm standpoint? Having two centers who space is a real problem for Dallas who want to play their traditional centers and want to keep them near the rim. Plus with as much as Luka and Kyrie like to attack the basket and the best lob threats in the game, your best rim protector is vital.

Can Derrick Jones handle the physicality of Tatum/Brown? I assume he gets Brown as his primary matchup with PJ on Tatum. Can Josh Green guard either of them in spot minutes? Can PJ stay out of foul trouble something he has struggled with? Does Luka rise to the challenge and take on of them at times?

Which guard does Kidd trust in this series? Is it still Hardy or does he want the bigger Exum for defense? Does Tim Hardaway get another shot or has Kidd just totally given up on him?

Where is Maxi Kleber in all of this? How healthy is that shoulder? Feels like whether its at center or PF he's going to be needed in this series. Can he play half the game? Will he take open shots? Will Boston guard him either way? He's an inconsistent shooter at best, but he's had some huge playoff games. Could he have one and swing a game?

Which coach can get the other one to blink first? Will either?

Can Hauser/Pritchard play enough to buy rest for the stars or will Dallas hunt them relentlessly and get them off the court? They managed nearly 36 combined minutes in the East. Can they replicate that?

One thing is for sure Joe Mazzula is such a psycho that he never blinks

[80HD]

Boston in 4.

[brackdan70]

Read on Twitter

Is that actual fire?