The OFFICIAL rookie impressions thread pt.III

[Copperhead]

Has anyone here actually disputed that Lillard should be ROY? It seems like a few of you are arguing something that no one has even disputed.

I watched the game and both rookies looked very good to me. At the same time it's pretty obvious they have completely different roles on their teams. Davis does have much higher "efficiency", but then 76% of Davis's shots are assisted while only 32% of Lillard's shots are. It's a lot easier for a player to have high efficiency when others are creating the offensive opportunities for him. Lillard has the responsibility of running Portland's offense most of the time, as well as creating his own offense. Much harder task and a heavier burden then Davis shoulders.

I also noticed that the Hornets were double-teaming Lillard most of the night, while Davis wasn't doubled one time, at least not that I saw. My guess is that is a season long trend. I know it is for Lillard

it's not a coincidence that Lillard's efficiency has jumped quite a bit in the last 8 games or so. Portland has had, for most of the season, two of the crappiest backup PG's in the league. That has forced Lillard to play tons of minutes while allowing defenses to attack him, pressure him, and wear him down...effectively limiting his efficiency. But since the Blazers added Eric Maynor, they've been able to relieve the pressure on Lillard a littl by allowing Maynor to run the offense. In March, Lillard is shooting over 53% FG's, and 42% on 3's. His assists haven't dropped, but his turnovers have. Granted..small sample size, but I've watched the games and it's obvious a little ball-handling help has worked wonders for Lillard

and while you point to his efficiency, it's worth noting that it is as good as or better then a lot of other top-level PG's when they were also rookies:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=lillada01&y1=2013&p2=rosede01&y2=2009&p3=lawsoty01&y3=2010&p4=willide01&y4=2006&p5=rubiori01&y5=2012&p6=westbru01&y6=2009

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=lillada01&y1=2013&p2=rondora01&y2=2007&p3=conlemi01&y3=2008&p4=parketo01&y4=2002&p5=holidjr01&y5=2010&p6=irvinky01&y6=2012

(and if Portland had the 1st pick, they would have taken Davis as well)

Big men's shots are oftentimes assisted. Guards are supposed to be the ones doing the assisting rather than being assisted.

Davis isn't double teamed as much because there's still no real plays being made for him. Guards are oftentimes double teamed because the opposing teams want to disrupt the guy who has the ball in his hands the most (aka, guards, aka, Lillard). Davis doesn't have the ball in his hands the most so why would anyone double team him right now?

[whatchaknow]

I think wiz is tryin to point out why Davis' efficiency is so much better than lillards not trying to discredit Davis. While a lot of guards get double teamed rarely does it happen to a rookie guard, though I will say almost all the doubles are due to stotts going to the high p&r every time. So it's not like teams are going and sending two guys at him when he is on the wing iso'ing. He does get a lot of attention and rightfully so but I think a lot of attention can be taken off with different offensive sets.

Anyway even though I knew Davis was a shoe in to be a stud, he has been super impressive every time I watch. His hands and ability to catch and finish is what shows me he has extremely high offensive potential. I also think he is a handful on d as he has given Aldridge (arguably the best one on one offensive pf) fits in their two matchups. It's too bad he was hurt early and NO has been bad because then Davis would be getting more attention.

[Wizenheimer]

I watched the game and both rookies looked very good to me. At the same time it's pretty obvious they have completely different roles on their teams. Davis does have much higher "efficiency", but then 76% of Davis's shots are assisted while only 32% of Lillard's shots are. It's a lot easier for a player to have high efficiency when others are creating the offensive opportunities for him. Lillard has the responsibility of running Portland's offense most of the time, as well as creating his own offense. Much harder task and a heavier burden then Davis shoulders.

I also noticed that the Hornets were double-teaming Lillard most of the night, while Davis wasn't doubled one time, at least not that I saw. My guess is that is a season long trend. I know it is for Lillard

it's not a coincidence that Lillard's efficiency has jumped quite a bit in the last 8 games or so. Portland has had, for most of the season, two of the crappiest backup PG's in the league. That has forced Lillard to play tons of minutes while allowing defenses to attack him, pressure him, and wear him down...effectively limiting his efficiency. But since the Blazers added Eric Maynor, they've been able to relieve the pressure on Lillard a littl by allowing Maynor to run the offense. In March, Lillard is shooting over 53% FG's, and 42% on 3's. His assists haven't dropped, but his turnovers have. Granted..small sample size, but I've watched the games and it's obvious a little ball-handling help has worked wonders for Lillard

and while you point to his efficiency, it's worth noting that it is as good as or better then a lot of other top-level PG's when they were also rookies:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=lillada01&y1=2013&p2=rosede01&y2=2009&p3=lawsoty01&y3=2010&p4=willide01&y4=2006&p5=rubiori01&y5=2012&p6=westbru01&y6=2009

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=lillada01&y1=2013&p2=rondora01&y2=2007&p3=conlemi01&y3=2008&p4=parketo01&y4=2002&p5=holidjr01&y5=2010&p6=irvinky01&y6=2012

(and if Portland had the 1st pick, they would have taken Davis as well)

Big men's shots are oftentimes assisted. Guards are supposed to be the ones doing the assisting rather than being assisted.

Davis isn't double teamed as much because there's still no real plays being made for him. Guards are oftentimes double teamed because the opposing teams want to disrupt the guy who has the ball in his hands the most (aka, guards, aka, Lillard). Davis doesn't have the ball in his hands the most so why would anyone double team him right now?

you're missing my point

NO-KG-AI was using the difference in efficiency between Davis and Lillard as a reason to say Davis is better.

it's an apples and oranges comparison (thus unfair) simply because they have different roles on their teams and as you say, bigs are generally going to have much higher efficiency then guards, especially when they are assisted as much as Davis is

I was not discrediting what Davis has done so far. Just pointing out that the efficiency argument was rather baseless in this comparison

[jinishima]

I agree with u. Guards create. Big men rarely do. And thats my reasonming for wanting an upgrade at PG for AD

[Brapman]

The thing about Davis this season is he's NOT been good defensively. Offensively, he's been much better than expected.

The thought on AD is that people expect his D to come around with added strength and experience.

Drummond's been the monster on D, and even he makes a lot of positional mistakes. Still, he's outperformed Davis by a lot on D - and that was unexpected.

Rookies are rookies - these flaws are how it's supposed to be. Check back after a summer of training and coaching - and then check back a few seasons from now to see which of these guys has maximized his potential the most.

Personally, I pick Drummond 1, but I'd love to have had the first five picks in that draft. Drummond, Davis at PF, Lillard, Beal/or Waiters (I go with Beal - just think he's a better team player), and Harrison Barnes (super athlete, great defensive ability), and watch the championships start piling up about 2 or three years from now.

[Shem]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAn7WLLaD9M[/youtube]

[MKWB]

The thing about Davis this season is he's NOT been good defensively. Offensively, he's been much better than expected.

The thought on AD is that people expect his D to come around with added strength and experience.

Drummond's been the monster on D, and even he makes a lot of positional mistakes. Still, he's outperformed Davis by a lot on D - and that was unexpected.

Rookies are rookies - these flaws are how it's supposed to be. Check back after a summer of training and coaching - and then check back a few seasons from now to see which of these guys has maximized his potential the most.

Personally, I pick Drummond 1, but I'd love to have had the first five picks in that draft. Drummond, Davis at PF, Lillard, Beal/or Waiters (I go with Beal - just think he's a better team player), and Harrison Barnes (super athlete, great defensive ability), and watch the championships start piling up about 2 or three years from now.

That is simply not the case. In the beginning of the year this could be argued. Not anymore. He still bites on pump fakes sometimes, like any rookie big man, but he's figured out rotations and closes better than most big men that I've seen. Just look at his 2 matchups with Aldridge, one of the best offensive PFs in the game. He shut him down the fisrt matchup, and held him below his averages the second.

[Shem]

Oh, I stirred up another "Hornets" nest.

You realize other guys wouldn't even have to play that well, and if they played 38 minutes and threw up 16 shots per game, they'd be in the ROY race just by default?

I won't make a passive aggressive statement. Anthony Davis IS better than Lillard right now. That's why he's been much more efficient on both ends, despite being much younger and less prepared, and after being injured.

Now that' a funny statement. Then how come Davis doesn't get 38 MPG on a 22-42 Hornets team like Lillard does on a 29-33 Blazers team? The Hornets are 1/2 a game from the bottom of the conference and he can't get those types of minutes? If Davis was ready for those minutes, especially from a team near the bottom of the conference, he'd get the minutes, but he's not. So to say he's better than Lillard now is laughable.

I really don't care about the ROY to be honest. Lillard should get it. He's the only one in the race that has stayed healthy and produced all year. Hate to hurt your feelings though, his numbers are more a product of high minutes and usage than superstar production.

[sarcasm]Oh, so it has nothing to do with his skills or the fact that he's good enough now to get those types of minutes. Gotcha. It's just a minutes thing and the fact that he gets the opportunities and that any player in the league would do the same with those minutes.[/sarcasm]

Sorry He's a nice player, but other than Mike Miller, he'd lose the vote to about any of the ROYs in our lifetime if he played the same season.

Oh, okay. Lillard came into the NBA as one of only two players to start their NBA career with at least 20 points and 7 assists in his first NBA games. The other Oscar Robertson. He's the first player since LeBron James 9 years ago to average at least 18 PPG and 6 APG. And I can go on and on about his firsts as he had one last Friday. But I find it funny that you had to go to the past to try to bring down his production and you may have not started passive aggressive, but your posting after you bluntly said Davis is better than Lillard now evolved to passive aggressive statements.

Shem is acting like he's on a untouchable tier as a rookie, and it's laughable. Sorry. He'd beat Amare probably? A guy straight out of high school who also won in a weak year?

You know what's funny, this whole time these debates have been about this year's rookie class until now because of how offended you were about my little statement on Lillard's numbers and how bad he would have to be the rest of the season to have comparable numbers to the rookies behind him.

Shem belongs in this conversation, because I was addressing his raging homerism.

Oh, yeah you don't have any "homerism" at all. Meanwhile you're a Hornets fan that bluntly said Davis is better than Lillard now. What's funny is one of your fellow fans is the reason why I was prompted to make the statement that I did:

Jon1798:
memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=26791

He's had his little agenda about how Davis deserves the ROY over Lillard with his Per36 numbers and such. And it's not just him, I just pointed him out since you're both from the same fan base.

So me saying that Lillard is the ROY is "homerism" (not sure that's a word, but I get it), then what happens when he wins it? I just don't see me saying that Lillard is the ROY a homer remark, but I see you saying that Davis is better now is. Just don't call someone a homer and then be one yourself. Again, all I did was point out how bad Lillard would have to be from this point forward to have a player get a close second and you went ballistic.

And you know what Davis is now? He's potentially the best player of the draft. Not the best now, but potentially the best and even that might now pan out if Drummond lives up to his potential.

[jinishima]

The thing about Davis this season is he's NOT been good defensively. Offensively, he's been much better than expected.

The thought on AD is that people expect his D to come around with added strength and experience.

Drummond's been the monster on D, and even he makes a lot of positional mistakes. Still, he's outperformed Davis by a lot on D - and that was unexpected.

Rookies are rookies - these flaws are how it's supposed to be. Check back after a summer of training and coaching - and then check back a few seasons from now to see which of these guys has maximized his potential the most.

Personally, I pick Drummond 1, but I'd love to have had the first five picks in that draft. Drummond, Davis at PF, Lillard, Beal/or Waiters (I go with Beal - just think he's a better team player), and Harrison Barnes (super athlete, great defensive ability), and watch the championships start piling up about 2 or three years from now.

First, thats not how I see it. He's been very solid but not stellar. For the first half he terrible on rotations, but has gotten better. The flow of the game may have been too fast for him and its taken him time to adjust, but he seems to become more effective as time passes on. Second,THAT, is least of my worries. He hasnt had the exact impact I thought he;d have from day 1, but i have no doubt that hes definitely gonna be a terror on that end for the next decade. Its all about gettin polished on the other side for me.
I could see Y folks would want Drummond. Technically, he has more upside than AD with that already developed body while AD will take at least 2 offseason to add the right weight to be effective. Tho raw very, dominant already. Guys a freak because hes actually younger than AD. Dosent even understand the game and still is effective. Now, how savvy he becomes remains to be seen, and I believe thats were Davis has him beat at this point. Davis has too looked like an inexperienced rookie at times, but his more polished skill set and athleticism enables him to not only fit but thrive in any system he would be subject to. Drummond's so raw, that has a farther way to go to reach superstardom IMO, but BOTH guys gould become great rivals for the next decade.

[whatchaknow]

FWIW regarding Davis' defense, I've only seen two other guys be as successful against lamarcus through his career and that's chuck Hayes and Sam dalembert. That's just one matchup of course but I think it shows that Davis has already had success against probably the toughest cover at pf. Obviously because of his build he is gonna have trouble against the bulkier guys and lamarcus probably is a guy that plays into Davis' strengths defensively.

I see Davis as the best pf in the league in 5 years. If this were the sg or c spot I think his rise to the top would be even sooner but he has so much competition at the pf. There is just not another pf out there with the two way potential he has. It'll be interesting to see if he becomes a low post player or a face up off the dribble guy which I think he is more natural due to his guard skills he grew up with.

Hornets fans who have seen more of him, what kind of offensive game do you see him developing. He already can pick and pop, get clean up buckets, and finish as the roll man. But as far as isolation offense what do you see him becoming?? Maybe a comparative player on offense??

[Kabookalu]

Remember that Davis isn't too far removed from literally having to play in his new freakish body. His first proper season of playing with his body was his senior year of high school, and then he went to college for one year and now he's in the NBA. Over a three year period he's went up one level in each of them. I'd start making evaluations of him next year and the one after that.

[jinishima]

FWIW regarding Davis' defense, I've only seen two other guys be as successful against lamarcus through his career and that's chuck Hayes and Sam dalembert. That's just one matchup of course but I think it shows that Davis has already had success against probably the toughest cover at pf. Obviously because of his build he is gonna have trouble against the bulkier guys and lamarcus probably is a guy that plays into Davis' strengths defensively.

I see Davis as the best pf in the league in 5 years. If this were the sg or c spot I think his rise to the top would be even sooner but he has so much competition at the pf. There is just not another pf out there with the two way potential he has. It'll be interesting to see if he becomes a low post player or a face up off the dribble guy which I think he is more natural due to his guard skills he grew up with.

Hornets fans who have seen more of him, what kind of offensive game do you see him developing. He already can pick and pop, get clean up buckets, and finish as the roll man. But as far as isolation offense what do you see him becoming?? Maybe a comparative player on offense??

Simple Answer: he can do both. I personally see him becoming a true threat on offense. Hornets dont have any set plays for him yet, but je still puts up solid numbers at an efficient rate. Not to mention hes a 70% free throw shooter, which will pay huge dividends for him being a big man. In the future I expect him to have a more successful face up game because he can put it on the floor, with the quickness and athleticism to get to the rim. His shooting form is good, so even though hes not hittin at a great percentage near the perimeter, he dosent look uncomfortable( like a D Howard would) doing it. Hell find his spots and get better, However, I he's also goin to be succesful in the post too. Dosent have any go to moves yet, but hes got great touch round the rim. He can use either hand to and ive seen on more than one occasion shoot righty hook shots in games with success(Bobcats game comes to mind). With arms like his, those hooks could become lethal. Again, hes very athletic, and when his backs to the basket, he can elevate quickly over his opponent for a turnaround shot. Hasnt had much success with those, but the foundation to success seems to be there.

Again, Hornets rarely draw up plays for him, but Monty has stated he will put in work in the offseason. Obviously, he needs more strength to help in the post, but that will come. Give it 2-3 years. My overall point is, hes got a lot of solid foundation to build on offensively. He just seems to know how to do a little of everything, just needs to put in work to become solid at it. I dontmean to rock the boat but I HONESTLY havent seen a pure big man prospect like him since Tim Duncan in 98'. Hence, my uber excitement of actually havin him on my squad

[Kabookalu]

Yep, and just to add as amazing as Drummond is as a physical specimen I regard Davis higher. He's not a typical moves like a guard kind of big man, he IS a guard that is a big man and I mean that in the highest complimentary way. Athletic big men are mobile for their sizes but if you shrunk them all things being the same (besides the reduced height and length of course) they would not compare at all to other guards. If you did the same with Davis I would say he would be an above average athlete for a guard.

In his prime I can see him being a complete terror on defense. Thanks to his mobility and fluidity he'll be able to get to certain spots faster to contest shots or close out, recover quickly, go out and guard the perimeter adequately, etc. I expect him to be like Garnett defensively in his prime.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Has anyone here actually disputed that Lillard should be ROY? It seems like a few of you are arguing something that no one has even disputed.

This past couple pages seem like a misunderstanding.

I think most people recognize that the reason Lillard will win ROY is because of his ability to step in and instantly fill a huge role for the Blazers, not because he will be better than Davis in 2/3 years. I haven't seen a person who wouldn't have taken Davis #1. Lillard might get a lot of love from his fans, and there is something to be said for actual production compared to projected production, but at the end of the day 99.9 of them would trade him straight up for Davis without looking back.

[monopoman]

Has anyone here actually disputed that Lillard should be ROY? It seems like a few of you are arguing something that no one has even disputed.

This past couple pages seem like a misunderstanding.

I think most people recognize that the reason Lillard will win ROY is because of his ability to step in and instantly fill a huge role for the Blazers, not because he will be better than Davis in 2/3 years. I haven't seen a person who wouldn't have taken Davis #1. Lillard might get a lot of love from his fans, and there is something to be said for actual production compared to projected production, but at the end of the day 99.9 of them would trade him straight up for Davis without looking back.

I think this is mostly due to big men still being more important to a great team and a lack of quality big men in the league.

I mean this is why Portland took Oden over Durant everyone knew Durant was going to be a hell of a scorer, and he has but Oden had the potential to be a game changer. Now not a similar circumstance here because so far Davis has remained durable, but yeah nearly every championship team has quality big men.

Lillards best case is he becomes a top PG in the league, which while very valuable to a team is nowhere near the potential of having one of the best PF's in the league. It wouldn't surprise me to see Lillard become one of the best PG's in the league though just to put that out there he works his ass off. I saw some workout videos of the kid and you should have seen the intensity and sweat he was building up over that tape.

[Gremz]

That dion waiters is exciting man. Looking like d-wade when he drives to the rim, the comparison is legit.

Yeah his game is very similar in some ways. When he wants too he can split the double and get to the rim at will. His handles and change of direction is very wade-esk.

Its really great watching him when he attacks the basket. Hes come a long way finishing at the rim too. He was horrible early on but now he often takes the contact and makes the bucket. Never ever gets the and 1 call but that will come hopefully as he gains respect i guess because he gets hit a lot.


And before anyone jumps on my post hes obviously a very poor mans wade but that can still be a very good player.

Way Of Waders.

[orangeparka]

Kyrie averaged 30.5mpg his rookie season.

[Brapman]

I'm putting this here as a marker. Kris Middleton is going to be a very fine player in this league. This kid is a big time shooter and scorer. He's getting a chance to play with the Pistons right now and is making a big impression. He's a competitive player who has a beautiful shooting stroke - is totally money on the corner 3, and who can move off the picks (curls, etc.) and make plays and shots, ala Rip Hamilton. He also looks like he's a willing competitor.

He was coming off a knee injury in college which is what had him drop into the second round of the draft. That also delayed his development a bit this season as he was working with the Pistons trainers to rehab more than he was in developing his game.

The Pistons will be upgrading their team with tons of cap space and some moveable assets (Stuckey and CV on expiring contracts; guys like Singler, Kravstov, Jerebko and Middleton - who teams might well want back in a deal as the Pistons upgrade), so it's hard to know exactly what the pathway is for Middleton - but he's a player who can really score. And guys who can score the ball always find PT in this league.

[GhostsOfGil]

Can't wait to see Waiters play tonight. Damn shame that Beal is sitting out.

[jinishima]

AD with 12 pts 6 Reb at the half.