2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[Marrrcuss]

Why do you all spend so much time talking about strength of schedule as if it will not end up even?

Its like you want your favorite choice to have extra points at the end because of how things started.

[Marrrcuss]

Can we please ban the word “gravity” because somehow only Steph has it according to some people. It’s the new “killer instinct”.

Yes, its one of those unmeasurable stats that is used like a weapon.

GSW has hustled and played hellacious defense, yet the only thing i keep seeing is a term that refers to offense.

[Big J]

Can we please ban the word “gravity” because somehow only Steph has it according to some people. It’s the new “killer instinct”.

Yes, its one of those unmeasurable stats that is used like a weapon.

GSW has hustled and played hellacious defense, yet the only thing i keep seeing is a term that refers to offense.

Except it. can. be. measured. Someone posted a thread with stats on it just a week ago, and as you can guess Curry lead it by a country mile.

[Marrrcuss]

Can we please ban the word “gravity” because somehow only Steph has it according to some people. It’s the new “killer instinct”.

Yes, its one of those unmeasurable stats that is used like a weapon.

GSW has hustled and played hellacious defense, yet the only thing i keep seeing is a term that refers to offense.

Except it. can. be. measured. Someone posted a thread with stats on it just a week ago, and as you can guess Curry lead it by a country mile.

Not accurately. Depends on too many things.

GSW has scored under 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Did the gravity decrease?

[Sgt Major]

Read on Twitter

[Marrrcuss]

per 75 possessions?

[Ron Swanson]

I don't know, can you measure "gravity"? Or is it a subjective as all hell term that people seem to just default to as a cliche when they can't bring any objective data to the discussion? I mean, by it's most basic definition, it's how much defensive attention a singular player draws away from his teammates. So, are we measuring it by double-teams and team offensive efficiency on DT's?

https://nbacourtoptix.nba.com/en

We always hear the "Teams trap/double Curry every time he crosses half court" argument but the numbers prove that claim is pretty exaggerated (he's 18th in possession volume and 10th in team efficiency out of doubles).

Or are we getting it from the infamous Stepien "metric" which to my knowledge, never explained its actual formula?

https://rollcallsportsnet.com/nba-spacing-gravity-metric-2020-21/

https://bluemanhoop.com/2021/05/22/warriors-no-surprise-stephen-curry-nbas-best-floor-spacer/

From what I've read over the years the concept of scoring and overall offensive gravity requires way too much player tracking data, efficiency, and luck-adjusted numbers baked into it that it's almost impossible to come up with a nice and tidy singular metric to quantify it. Just watching him play and you'll see that Curry draws a crazy amount of attention due to his shooting, but sorry, if you're going to argue that he's some sort of tier above someone like Giannis or Jokic (interior and play-making gravity respectively), then you better present some more compelling evidence/numbers.

[WarriorGM]

I don't know, can you measure "gravity"? Or is it a subjective as all hell term that people seem to just default to as a cliche when they can't bring any objective data to the discussion? I mean, by it's most basic definition, it's how much defensive attention a singular player draws away from his teammates. So, are we measuring it by double-teams and team offensive efficiency on DT's?

https://nbacourtoptix.nba.com/en

We always hear the "Teams trap/double Curry every time he crosses half court" argument but the numbers prove that claim is pretty exaggerated (he's 18th in possession volume and 10th in team efficiency out of doubles).

Or are we getting it from the infamous Stepien "metric" which to my knowledge, never explained its actual formula?

https://rollcallsportsnet.com/nba-spacing-gravity-metric-2020-21/

https://bluemanhoop.com/2021/05/22/warriors-no-surprise-stephen-curry-nbas-best-floor-spacer/

From what I've read over the years the concept of scoring and overall offensive gravity requires way too much player tracking data, efficiency, and luck-adjusted numbers baked into it that it's almost impossible to come up with a nice and tidy singular metric to quantify it. Just watching him play and you'll see that Curry draws a crazy amount of attention due to his shooting, but sorry, if you're going to argue that he's some sort of tier above someone like Giannis or Jokic (interior and play-making gravity respectively), then you better present some more compelling evidence/numbers.

Try looking at the TS% of his teammates when he is on and when he is off. Mind you I don't know what the answer is this year. I haven't looked.

[Big J]

Yes, its one of those unmeasurable stats that is used like a weapon.

GSW has hustled and played hellacious defense, yet the only thing i keep seeing is a term that refers to offense.

Except it. can. be. measured. Someone posted a thread with stats on it just a week ago, and as you can guess Curry lead it by a country mile.

Not accurately. Depends on too many things.

GSW has scored under 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Did the gravity decrease?

Ahh got it, so they are winning on great defense by 4 guys who compensate for Curry, and gravity can’t be measured so it’s meaningless. They might as well just bench the guy and cruise to 70 wins.

[MaNs]

Except it. can. be. measured. Someone posted a thread with stats on it just a week ago, and as you can guess Curry lead it by a country mile.

Not accurately. Depends on too many things.

GSW has scored under 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Did the gravity decrease?

Ahh got it, so they are winning on great defense by 4 guys who compensate for Curry, and gravity can’t be measured so it’s meaningless. They might as well just bench the guy and cruise to 70 wins.

You know im not a nihilist, i dont believe Curry is useless or something . He might as well have this gravity but if he is scoring 3 less points, recording 5 less rebounds and has less assists in the game he is just not better than other candidates. His gravity can not account for a huge difference in boxscore numbers as he has with the top candidates. Gravity may as well be a virtue of Curry's game. Other great players have other virtues. I was joking for Chris Paul before but if we should be serious he is a great and quite unique floor general and co-ordinator in defense. A young and talented team like the Suns would go nowhere without a player like him. A team like the Wiggins-Kat-Lavine Minessota would do wonders with a Chris Paul. But the fact remains he is currently not playing at the level of top candidates. How would you feel if we had dozens of Suns fans during the month that Embid and Giannis are playing amazing ball stating over and over again, Chris Paul is a floor general these guys are not and their numbers don't matter. Personally I believe that Curry may very well have won the MVP if he continued his scoring streak from earlier this year. As it is he is leading a great team with many good players but he does not stand out enough statistically, and no narrative over his gravity. Sorry if i dissapointed some Curry fans but it is what it is. I like a lot Giannis and I consider him a very good player and I believe that if the Milwaukee get relatively healthy he will be the best candidate for MVP. I also see Embiid making a great push also.

[Big J]

Not accurately. Depends on too many things.

GSW has scored under 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Did the gravity decrease?

Ahh got it, so they are winning on great defense by 4 guys who compensate for Curry, and gravity can’t be measured so it’s meaningless. They might as well just bench the guy and cruise to 70 wins.

You know im not a nihilist, i dont believe Curry is useless or something . He might as well have this gravity but if he is scoring 3 less points, recording 5 less rebounds and has less assists in the game he is just not better than other candidates. His gravity can not account for a huge difference in boxscore numbers as he has with the top candidates. Gravity may as well be a virtue of Curry's game. Other great players have other virtues. I was joking for Chris Paul before but if we should be serious he is a great and quite unique floor general and co-ordinator in defense. A young and talented team like the Suns would go nowhere without a player like him. A team like the Wiggins-Kat-Lavine Minessota would do wonders with a Chris Paul. But the fact remains he is currently not playing at the level of top candidates. How would you feel if we had dozens of Suns fans during the month that Embid and Giannis are playing amazing ball stating over and over again, Chris Paul is a floor general these guys are not and their numbers don't matter. Personally I believe that Curry may very well have won the MVP if he continued his scoring streak from earlier this year. As it is he is leading a great team with many good players but he does not stand out enough statistically, and no narrative over his gravity. Sorry if i dissapointed some Curry fans but it is what it is. I like a lot Giannis and I consider him a very good player and I believe that if the Milwaukee get relatively healthy he will be the best candidate for MVP. I also see Embiid making a great push also.

You know who does stand out statistically? Russell Westbrook. If stats mean so much then according to your criteria he should be MVP every season with his triple doubles.

[Marrrcuss]

Ahh got it, so they are winning on great defense by 4 guys who compensate for Curry, and gravity can’t be measured so it’s meaningless. They might as well just bench the guy and cruise to 70 wins.

You know im not a nihilist, i dont believe Curry is useless or something . He might as well have this gravity but if he is scoring 3 less points, recording 5 less rebounds and has less assists in the game he is just not better than other candidates. His gravity can not account for a huge difference in boxscore numbers as he has with the top candidates. Gravity may as well be a virtue of Curry's game. Other great players have other virtues. I was joking for Chris Paul before but if we should be serious he is a great and quite unique floor general and co-ordinator in defense. A young and talented team like the Suns would go nowhere without a player like him. A team like the Wiggins-Kat-Lavine Minessota would do wonders with a Chris Paul. But the fact remains he is currently not playing at the level of top candidates. How would you feel if we had dozens of Suns fans during the month that Embid and Giannis are playing amazing ball stating over and over again, Chris Paul is a floor general these guys are not and their numbers don't matter. Personally I believe that Curry may very well have won the MVP if he continued his scoring streak from earlier this year. As it is he is leading a great team with many good players but he does not stand out enough statistically, and no narrative over his gravity. Sorry if i dissapointed some Curry fans but it is what it is. I like a lot Giannis and I consider him a very good player and I believe that if the Milwaukee get relatively healthy he will be the best candidate for MVP. I also see Embiid making a great push also.

You know who does stand out statistically? Russell Westbrook. If stats mean so much then according to your criteria he should be MVP every season with his triple doubles.

Nah, Russell isnt efficient. I mean He's shooting a better FG% from the floor than Steph and beating him in rebounds and assists but the turnovers, ppg, and overall affect hes having may not even be better than him this year, despite the low FG%.

[Marrrcuss]

Except it. can. be. measured. Someone posted a thread with stats on it just a week ago, and as you can guess Curry lead it by a country mile.

Not accurately. Depends on too many things.

GSW has scored under 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Did the gravity decrease?

Ahh got it, so they are winning on great defense by 4 guys who compensate for Curry, and gravity can’t be measured so it’s meaningless. They might as well just bench the guy and cruise to 70 wins.

I dont care how much yall like him, he was getting subbed out for defense in a game i watched and wasnt in foul trouble. They do not even trust him on any point guards with decent outside shots or quickness.

Would you like to go ahead and make a wager on how he will avoid being on Ja tonight?

I dont use "gravity" on Bron and hes a far superior player. Yall go ahead and use the term as a big joker for every discussion though.

[Tanks1]

Embiid's last 10 games:

*31 PTS - 8 REB - 6 AST

*31 PTS - 12 REB - 7 AST

*31 PTS - 5 REB - 4 AST

*31 PTS - 15 REB - 10 AST

*34 PTS - 7 REB - 1 AST

*36 PTS - 11 REB - 4 AST

*36 PTS - 13 REB - 2 BLK

*23 PTS - 10 REB - 2 BLK

*41 PTS - 10 REB - 5 BLK

*32 PTS - 9 REB - 6 AST

[kuclas]

Embiid's last 10 games:

*31 PTS - 8 REB - 6 AST

*31 PTS - 12 REB - 7 AST

*31 PTS - 5 REB - 4 AST

*31 PTS - 15 REB - 10 AST

*34 PTS - 7 REB - 1 AST

*36 PTS - 11 REB - 4 AST

*36 PTS - 13 REB - 2 BLK

*23 PTS - 10 REB - 2 BLK

*41 PTS - 10 REB - 5 BLK

*32 PTS - 9 REB - 6 AST

The points don't matter to me as much as the assist totals. While Embiid will never see the floor like Jokic as a big man. Embiid is certainly no Ben Simmons in terms of vision on the court. But he's certainly seen the floor better than ever. Or maybe it's because he passes the ball to a guy who's willing to shoot it (cough cough not Ben Simmons). I think Embiid can eventually reach that 5 plus assist total. It's just a sign of a mature big man

[feyki]

Read on Twitter

I'm just enjoying with that on/off numbers . Monk and Dwight have better on/off than Lebron .


Embiid is on right now, in the mvp race. Butler,Embiid,Lebron,Harden all are behind only Giannis/Jokic/Durant/Curry four. But still we're lacking players at all-nba level. Paul,Gobert,George; these are not on that level but injures or form issues putting them over there.

[shoresy69]

With all the talk about gravity, I thought I would run some ON/OFF data from NBA wowy and look at effect on teammates' TS percentages for the season so far. I'm not sure how to upload images on this board but for Curry and Giannis I looked at each of their teammates TS differential when Curry/Giannis is ON and OFF the court, and then multiplied each player's NET TS differential by the % of their team's TSA they've taken on the season (taking out Curry's and Giannis's true shooting attempts of course) so they're weighted appropriately.

The results:
Curry's teammates +5.21 TS% when he's on the floor
Giannis's teammates +2.73 TS% when he's on the floor

I'll run the numbers for other MVP candidates tonight and try to figure out how to upload images of the spreadsheet.

Edit: There's definitely some noise with players taking a lot of TSA's with Curry/Giannis OFF and hardly any with Curry/Giannis ON (or vice versa) that affects those weighted averages a disproportionate amount. I'll try and think of a workaround.

[Kurtz]

With all the talk about gravity, I thought I would run some ON/OFF data from NBA wowy and look at effect on teammates' TS percentages for the season so far. I'm not sure how to upload images on this board but for Curry and Giannis I looked at each of their teammates TS differential when Curry/Giannis is ON and OFF the court, and then multiplied each player's NET TS differential by the % of their team's TSA they've taken on the season (taking out Curry's and Giannis's true shooting attempts of course) so they're weighted appropriately.

The results:
Curry's teammates +5.21 TS% when he's on the floor
Giannis's teammates +2.73 TS% when he's on the floor

I'll run the numbers for other MVP candidates tonight and try to figure out how to upload images of the spreadsheet.

Edit: There's definitely some noise with players taking a lot of TSA's with Curry/Giannis OFF and hardly any with Curry/Giannis ON (or vice versa) that affects those weighted averages a disproportionate amount. I'll try and think of a workaround.

This is awesome. Are you able to eliminate garbage time from the equation? (usually a **** with lots of misses).

[shoresy69]

With all the talk about gravity, I thought I would run some ON/OFF data from NBA wowy and look at effect on teammates' TS percentages for the season so far. I'm not sure how to upload images on this board but for Curry and Giannis I looked at each of their teammates TS differential when Curry/Giannis is ON and OFF the court, and then multiplied each player's NET TS differential by the % of their team's TSA they've taken on the season (taking out Curry's and Giannis's true shooting attempts of course) so they're weighted appropriately.

The results:
Curry's teammates +5.21 TS% when he's on the floor
Giannis's teammates +2.73 TS% when he's on the floor

I'll run the numbers for other MVP candidates tonight and try to figure out how to upload images of the spreadsheet.

Edit: There's definitely some noise with players taking a lot of TSA's with Curry/Giannis OFF and hardly any with Curry/Giannis ON (or vice versa) that affects those weighted averages a disproportionate amount. I'll try and think of a workaround.

This is awesome. Are you able to eliminate garbage time from the equation? (usually a **** with lots of misses).

Thanks! I'm not sure but that sounds like a good suggestion, I'll take a look at the filters available on the website tonight. If anyone else has feedback for how to more accurately quantify this feel free to let me know.

[mediocrityrules]

.

All 5 TOP teams in the East had the same injuries/Covid issues and Bucks is the 4th in standings. PHI with one more win will catch them too.

Derozan 25-9
Embiid 20-8
KD 22-11
Giannis 22-12

I could forget DEN records due injuries playing against way healthier the West teams, but MIL record is a problem.

They've all had injuries and Covid, but when you compare that Philly have played 295 different 5 man combo's, the Bulls 286, the Nets 344, and the Bucks have played 526, it gives you an extent of just how much the Bucks have had to endure with availability. And yes the Bucks are still one of those teams that is yet to put it's best starting line-up on court once this season.

This is our best starting line-up, and these guys have not been able to play together for a single minute this season yet.
Lopez
Giannis
Jrue
Midds
DiVincenzo

Who the f…k cares about role players????

MIA Butler/Adebayo missed huge time with injuries
PHI Embiid missed 10+ games and no other max player whole season
BRK Irving is playing 2nd game this season
CHI could be smashed by covid the most

So let me take all of our 'role players' etc out of it (which you can't really because they are part of the full picture) and just look at our ideal starting 5: -

Lopez - played 1 game, missed 42
Giannis - played 34, missed 9
Jrue - played 33, missed 10
Middleton - played 31, missed 12
DiVincenzo - played 4, missed 39

Giannis has played the most, and even he has missed 21% of Bucks games this season.

My point being that the Bucks are a much better team than their record suggests.