Kemba Walker

[caesarspoke]

Kemba had a good summer league showing, how do yo think he will fare with the new lineup for the Cats next season?

Is he the PG of the future for the Cats? or just one of the failed picks by MJ?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQ6n1j7GLTY[/youtube]

[TheKingOfVa360]

Hes not a pg

[smith2373]

Hes not a pg

Not a SG either.

[caesarspoke]

He not a pg

he is taking over DJ Augustine role that makes him a PG

[mcfly1204]

6th man at best. Summer league is summer league.

[barborous]

i think he could be a good 6th man or combo guard type of guy, but as the starting pg for a team, not very effective.

[Chosen01]

Jason Terry?

[BeasleyTheBeast]

6th man at best. Summer league is summer league.

didn't he shoot below 40% from the field in Summer League?

That is not special.

[BeasleyTheBeast]

Jason Terry?

I was thinking more like Bobby Jackson or maybe if he reaches his potential Ty Lawson.

[advanced]

He looked like a real PG to me in summer league for what its worth. He was creating a lot of looks and was obviously the leader. Wouldn't surprise me if he averaged 7-8 assists this season. He gets a lot of hate for being on the Bobcats despite being one of the few guys who showed up every night and played hard despite having a terrible coach that had quit on the team months before.

[Down To Buck]

His ceiling is Brandon Jennings.
That is not a good thing.
He is best suited to a 6th man Terry-like role on a team. Most teams don't have room for an inefficient, undersized guard with no true position.

[tsherkin]

He looked like a real PG to me in summer league for what its worth. He was creating a lot of looks and was obviously the leader. Wouldn't surprise me if he averaged 7-8 assists this season. He gets a lot of hate for being on the Bobcats despite being one of the few guys who showed up every night and played hard despite having a terrible coach that had quit on the team months before.

Well, he was a rook, so the fact that he sucked really bad can be kind of written off. He's not going to be some all-time great, but there are lots of late-bloomers out there.

He's a solid free throw shooter; that's about all I have for positive commentary. He was terrible in every aspect of offense and not a particularly wonderful defender, either, so it's kind of hard to work with the idea that his effort is really meaningful. It'll be interesting to see if he makes any kind of leap this season, and where he does it. He's got a long way to go before he's worth even a bench role at this stage, though, so we'll see.

[advanced]

lol even for a coach that had quit so much he was letting his son coach for lulz (we actually thought it was because his son was a shoe-in for the job but obviously that was wrong) Kemba was a 15 PER starter minute player, making him at worst average (15 PER is average iirc). as a rookie in that situation thats a pretty impressive feat.

[Reignman]

Jason Terry?

At best.

[tsherkin]

lol even for a coach that had quit so much he was letting his son coach for lulz (we actually thought it was because his son was a shoe-in for the job but obviously that was wrong) Kemba was a 15 PER starter minute player, making him at worst average (15 PER is average iirc). as a rookie in that situation thats a pretty impressive feat.

Should point out that he was given free reign to loft almost 12 FGA/g in 27 mpg and command over the ball, which necessarily inflates your PER, despite being a 46.4% TS, 96 ORTG, -0.2 OWS player.

He was the definition of a putrid waste of shots, but he was still permitted to toss up 15.4 FGA36... which helped out his PER despite the fact that he was obviously crap (as a rookie, in a tough situation, it must be said, and he's not the only player to suck at first and get better).

But yeah, maybe you call that one a "moral victory," but there's no denying that his PER was a product of his shooting volume and not reflective in any way, shape or form of positive impact. Noting first that it's not prior-informed, he was a -2.8/-1.3 RAPM player (offense/defense), and that the Cats were actually -2.1 points per 100 possessions on offense when he was on the floor, I don't think there's a ton to take away from PER... which is usually the case. PER serves as a decent filtration tool, allowing a quick perusal of rough player tiers, as long as you set good baselines for minutes and games played, but that's about all it does (especially since it admittedly all but ignores defense). That this is 2012 and people still fall back on PER for anything else is unfortunate, since it's flaws (and those of all TENDEX derivatives) are well-known and similarly well-documented.

[RapsGM]

Wow, the hate is really strong in this thread.

I think too many people are really looking down on Kemba because of his shooting from last season. But I'm willing to bet its an anomaly due to the Bobcats bad coaching and lack of talent.

He should shoot a lot better this season and prove people wrong about him not being a point guard.

[tsherkin]

Wow, the hate is really strong in this thread.

I think too many people are really looking down on Kemba because of his shooting from last season. But I'm willing to bet its an anomaly due to the Bobcats bad coaching and lack of talent.

I think you're missing the point; when you suck a lot, people call you out. Certainly in my case, I'm not trying to say he is going to stay that way or that the situation in which he found himself didn't contribute to the problem, but at some point, A is A. He was one of the worst offensive players in the league last year, that's irrefutable fact. Lebron had a sub-50% TS as a rookie as well, and so did Durant; no one sane thinks Kemba will break out the way they did, but it's pretty clear that even dominant skill or physical attribute players can stumble as they transition to college. It doesn't mean they sucked any less in that capacity as rookies, of course.

Also, last season was a compressed season that harmed everyone, so that's part of situational context but again...

A is A.

Whimpering over the fact that people call a spade a spade is a waste of time; the only thing to do is to hope he plays at replacement level or better this year and can prove to people his capacity for improvement.

[SpeedyWindRose]

On a side note, what's with all these small, chucking PGs signing with Under Armor?

[advanced]

ehh I remember in a much healthier environment watching DJ Augustin put up 59% TS and then down to 49% TS in the toxic situation this year. Situation is everything, especially if the guy is a hard worker and coachable which Kemba clearly is

[tsherkin]

ehh I remember in a much healthier environment watching DJ Augustin put up 59% TS and then down to 49% TS in the toxic situation this year. Situation is everything, especially if the guy is a hard worker and coachable which Kemba clearly is

As I said, discussing the possibility that he might not suck ass is one thing; getting uppity when his actual performance is called what it is, well, that's another story entirely.

It behooves one to mention that Augustin never returned to anywhere near his rookie efficiency because he's never been a 43.9% 3PT shooter again, which was where that efficiency came from in the first place, and he's also been inconsistent at the line, most notably in his second season when he was under 78% from the line (his only season under 87% to date). Remember that he was taking 3.4 3PA/g, and shooting better there than under the arc. He was also shooting less overall than he has in either of the last two seasons. His second season, he also played 8 fewer minutes per game.

It's not the same thing as what Kemba experienced last year. Again and as I said before, his craptacular performance as a rookie doesn't preclude him from becoming a good player at some point, but getting all stiff-backed when he's called out for playing terribly is just not sensible.

Augustin had an outlier season as a rookie and has remained an average to below average scoring threat since, and his passing is outweighed some by his turnovers (plus, he was crap the one year he was in the playoffs). I don't know how much you want to use him as an example.

EDIT:

Just for the sake of illustration, Augustin's TS% and ORTG in each year of his career. I'll slap in his 3P%, as well as his FG% (specifically at the rim) and his FTR:

TS/ORTG/3P%/FTR

09: 58.7%, 115, 43.9%, 48.0, 0.38
10: 51.6%, 106, 39.3%, 10.7, 0.30
11: 54.1%, 112, 33.3%, 53.8, 0.31
12: 49.3%, 100, 34.1%, 48.3, 0.25

Seeing the trend? His ORTG has risen because he's been producing more assists and his TS% has risen again because he's increased his the proportion of his shots that he's taking as 3s, as well as his total shooting volume (and because his FT% recovered from that random blip in 2010 at 77.9%). You'll also see the recovery of his ability to shoot at the rim, although it's a relative term, because he's still bloody horrible at finishing at the rim and it's been a big problem for him in the absence of elite 3pt shooting.

He's been decent on long 2s, has nothing resembling a middle game, can't finish at the rim and can't draw fouls. So both of the things that floated his TS% as a rookie are gone and have been for three seasons now, making them look a lot like outliers, especially next to his performance in the playoffs.

Again, not a player you want to use in a pro-Walker example, because he's actually declined considerably since his rookie season and hasn't shown improvement except in terms of volume production of assists, which is more related to role than anything else (especially when you consider his rising TOV%).