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Or will they miss it for the first time in forever?

It's early, but peeking at the roster composition, it doesn't inspire awe. Or does it?
Everything will need time to gel, but they do have a quality coach - who however has lost his two top assistants since the title.

Will Nowitzki stay healthy? Will he stay semi-healthy? How about the depth?

Jazz, Wolves, Warriors and Blazers are all right there. Maybe even the Suns

Honestly?

I think they miss they playoffs.

Kaman is a terrible fit next to Nowitzki, IMO. Them playing together didn't really work out all that great on the German national team either because they're both horrible defenders.

Collison should be able to compensate the loss of Jason Kidd (who was terrible last year).
But unless OJ Mayo magically turns his career around losing Terry will hurt them a lot.
The addition of Elton Brand is ok and will allow them to give Dirk some much needed rest but overall the roster is not competitive enough to reach the playoffs. 35 wins max.

The only advantage they have on other teams is that they're experienced.

Dirk is going to have to have a really, really good year for this team to compete well. I'm hopeful that Carlisle can make the team work defensively, but they've bled talent since the title. Stevenson, Chandler, Terry, Haywood... that's a gut punch and a half to their play at either end of the floor. Adding Kaman seems like a decent idea if he's healthy, adding Brand is probably going to work out really well and I'm hopeful that Mayo can be useful but this team isn't going to contend without some wicked seasons from a couple of their players. Playoffs?

We'll have to see how they play early on, but yecch.

Cuban's making a play for this off-season, given the contracts on that team, but will there be a foundation ready for that kind of action? Dirk's not getting any younger and he may have already fallen off of the decline precipice, so we'll wait and see.

I'm not hopeful for the season, though. I figure they'll squeak into the bottom end of the playoffs, unless something special happens somewhere along that roster. Collison, Dahntay Jones, Brand... those are intriguing additions. Marion is still a good piece. Carter, not a great piece. Kaman is an unknown and Dirk's performance is... mmmm, something to watch. But he's surprised before, so I won't doubt him until it's all over.

Of course they do. Dirk still plays for them.

Mavs lose a pre-season game and we already have a thread on this. Gotta love RealGM

I'm going to wait a few games into the season to make a reasonable judgment. Both pre-season games were disappointing.

There will be much more talk after the slaughter fest that is the season-opener with the Lakers. But they are a new team and need to find their roles.

We will see how long Mayo can keep his starter spot. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the team plays like a playoff team by (supposedly) downgrading to the defensive SG in Dahntay Jones. I think Mayo will find himself as a sixth man (if even that) really quick if he continues with his hero-ball bull.

The 2011 team was a team built effectively around Dirk and also got lucky with playoff matchups (but what champion hasn't?). The 2013 team looks like a mess. The backcourt isn't known for being accurate shooting beyond the arc, and Kaman is suspect defensively while Brand has lost a step in that regard.

They'll have a .500 record easily barring injuries, but they could end up losing a playoff spot to Utah or Golden State.

Captain_Obvious wrote:I'm going to wait a few games into the season to make a reasonable judgment. Both pre-season games were disappointing.

There will be much more talk after the slaughter fest that is the season-opener with the Lakers. But they are a new team and need to find their roles.

We will see how long Mayo can keep his starter spot. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the team plays like a playoff team by (supposedly) downgrading to the defensive SG in Dahntay Jones. I think Mayo will find himself as a sixth man (if even that) really quick if he continues with his hero-ball bull.

If he can accept being a Jason Terry type. The Mavs won a championship by starting a defensive wing and relying on an offensive sixth man.

But IIRC Mayo has shot crap since Game 2 of the playoffs vs LAC.

I have my fears. They were only what, the 7th seed last season?

Their frontcourt is solid - Dirk, Kaman, Matrix, Brand, Wright - but pretty old, and I expect injuries. Their depth behind those guys is questionable at best.

It's their whole backcourt that deeply worries me and is a big reason I expect them to lose. Darren Collison got exposed in Indy for what he is - a fast, tiny guard who can score in bunches on occasion, but can't run an offense or make an entry pass.

OJ Mayo? I mean, even lilojmayo gave up on him. I don't expect a lot.

Depth? Rodrigue beaubois... delonte west... dahntay jones... vince carter.... None of these guys should be the main backup guard on a good team. Period.

I have them missing the playoffs but it's really a battle between Utah, Minn, GSW and Dallas for the 7th and 8th spot. The only player maker on their team is Dirk so Dallas goes as far as he goes.

So they were 8th seed last season.

1. Spurs
2. OKC
3. Lakers
4. Memphis
5. Clippers
6. Nuggets
7. Jazz
8. Dallas

then... Rockets, Suns, Blazers, Wolves, Warriors, Kings, Hornets


What team(s) will have jumped ahead of them in the Western Conference?
Rockets? no
Suns? no
Blazers? probably not
Wolves? most likely yes
Warriors/Kings/Hornets? doubt it

But do the Nuggets and Jazz keep their playoff spots? Nuggets probably do. The Jazz? They have quite a few players that will be playing for a new contract, so they have the motivation.

I don't think they will make it. I think the Wolves and Warrior have better rosters right now when healthy.

TwentyOne920 wrote:The 2011 team was a team built effectively around Dirk and also got lucky with playoff matchups (but what champion hasn't?). The 2013 team looks like a mess. The backcourt isn't known for being accurate shooting beyond the arc, and Kaman is suspect defensively while Brand has lost a step in that regard.

They'll have a .500 record easily barring injuries, but they could end up losing a playoff spot to Utah or Golden State.

What?

On paper, Mavs look alright offensively. Not so good defensively. Add that up and you have the makings of an average team. The average team probably is fighting for the last playoff spot and that's what I'm expecting them to do.

Will they make it? I got SA, OKC, Lakers, Clippers, Memphis, Denver as locks. That leaves 2 spots between Minnesota, GS, Dallas. I'd probably bet it on Minnesota and Golden State barring injuries.

With the talk of Dirk contemplating knee surgery it doesn't look good.

Also, Dirk the past two season has posted consecutive lows in PPG and RPG, or his lowest since his 2nd year in the league (1999-2000), so I didn't expect a dominant regular season from him anyways. This news lowers that expectation further.

With the West as deep as it is, I'm leaning towards no right now.

jowglenn wrote:OJ Mayo? I mean, even lilojmayo gave up on him. I don't expect a lot.

Trader_Joe wrote:With the talk of Dirk contemplating knee surgery it doesn't look good.

Also, Dirk the past two season has posted consecutive lows in PPG and RPG, or his lowest since his 2nd year in the league (1999-2000), so I didn't expect a dominant regular season from him anyways. This news lowers that expectation further.

With the West as deep as it is, I'm leaning towards no right now.

Good point. With Dirk on the decline and possibly needing surgery the Mavs might be out of the hunt.

I think that the Mavs might shut down Dirk if the early season does not go their way. What better way to re-tool than pulling a Spurs "have MVP sit out a year, get the #1 pick, and start a dynasty"

If Dirk gets surgery on his knee and misses significant time then they have no chance. They are already on the fringe with the talent they have in a tough West and to lose your best player (who already is declining) to a knee surgery would be killer.

Right now I'm leaning towards NO. 100% healthy they could sneak in but the season hasn't even started and the 100% healthy part is looking like it won't happen.

nykballa2k4 wrote:I think that the Mavs might shut down Dirk if the early season does not go their way. What better way to re-tool than pulling a Spurs "have MVP sit out a year, get the #1 pick, and start a dynasty"

They would still win around 38 or so games. Their supporting cast isn't bad enough to get into top pick territory. Plus, I very seriously doubt Dirk would accept sitting out when he could be playing at this point in his career, he isn't exactly young.