What's Lillard's ceiling?

[princeofpalace]

Tony Parker

[DaeDae]

Of course, some 4 year college players don't become stars, but for every Derrick Rose there's a Tim Duncan as far as player development goes.

Really? Show me all the 4 year college players in the last 20 years that are on the same level with the following:

Kobe
Tmac
Lebron
Carmelo
Derrick Rose
Durant
Dwight Howard
KG
Kyrie
Kevin Love
Eric Gordon

Even Granger, Deng, et al. are above the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of 4 year guys.

That doesn't even count the "2 and done" guys like Shaq, CP3, Black Griffin, Westbrook etc

Outside of Wade, Roy and Duncan, all exceptions to the four year rule (Was Roy a 4 year player?), your argument fails terribly. There ARE exceptions of course. One and done'rs fail. And certainly there are a (very small) number of 4 year guys that break out. But the general rule of the NBA is, and HAS BEEN for the last 20 years, that if you are good enough to go, you go as early as you can. 4 year college players become 4 year college players BECAUSE largely in years 1,2, and 3, they aren't seen as super high upside NBA players. Period.

Again, this isn't a commentary on Lillard specifically, but moreso on the lazy analysis tht is being used to categorize him as this or that.

[orangeparka]

I like the Billups comparison for him.

[spacemonkey]

Arenas with better shot selection, possibly a better distributor as well.

That's like the anti-Arenas (???)

[Kobe Bean]

Poor man's Norris "Big 4" Cole

I mean he's like 22 years old. That's ancient. Even fossil KG has more of an upside. Dude has no lift or body control either

[Jack wore plaid]

21/7/4 is the highest I see, Tim Hardaway at best

So the "highest" you can see from Lillard is his scoring going up 2.7 ppg, his assist totals going up .4 asp, and his rebounds going up .5 rpg from his rookie season?

[Yuri Vaultin]

Tony Parker

Except with amazing 3 ball range?

At this point he reminds me of a 25/26 year old Jason Terry. The kid will only get better. I'm pretty sure those writing him off are the same posters that thought he'd be a bust. These posters will continue to be wrong.

[Senor Chang]

just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine

The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.

[Wizenheimer]

just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine

The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.

the sprint is an important number. So is the lane agility as it factors in lateral as well as vertical speed. For PG's, the one issue with both those tests is that neither is conducted with a basketball.

[Ice the knees]

Does he not enough athleticism to become the next Rose?

He is not freak athletic, but being good is not all about being a freak. Rose actually has a lot of skills. Rose and Westbrook are both 70% athleticism, 30% skill point guards. Irving relies on 80% skill, 20% athleticism. He doesn't have the skill to make up his non-elite athleticism.

Lillard is really really old; he is in fact older than Irving by 2 years. His skill and body has both matured to probably 70-80% levels/

Rose is one of the most skilled players in the league...

[Senor Chang]

just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine

The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.

the sprint is an important number. So is the lane agility as it factors in lateral as well as vertical speed. For PG's, the one issue with both those tests is that neither is conducted with a basketball.

The point of these are to test players raw physical abilities. It is likely if you redid the sprint test with the ball Damian would go up in the rankings but that would just weed out the non ball handlers. it will not put him near the Rose, Westbrooks, Gordon's etc..

[karkinos]

i like the jet comparison

[TheKingOfVa360]

He can be Marbury with less assists. That's his ceiling to me. Plays like a vet, very good pace. Defense lacking but can improve.

[NYK_89]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve. I see little to no chance that he becomes a top 10 player and likley will just become a more efficient version on himself. Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

[Yuri Vaultin]

Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

All have a much lower basement too.

[NYK_89]

Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

All have a much lower basement too.

Yeah this is true, unless you are including davis i only can see injuries preventing him from becoming a greater player then Lillard. The fact is with Lillard that a lot of what you average young player improves upon is already pretty damn solid. He obviously can improve a decent amount but far less then you would assume he could when all you know is that he is a rookie.

[Wizenheimer]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve.

Lillard is 22

Larry Bird turned 23 when he was a rookie and already had an extremely "polished game":

as a rookie, avg of 21 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists with a .474 FG%, .406 3pt%, and a 20.5 PER
5 years later, avg of 29 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists with a .522 FG%, .427 3pt%, and a 26.5 PER
----------------------------------------
Brandon Roy was older as a rookie then Lillard is, and he too, had a very polished game:

as a rookie, avg of 17 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists with a .456 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 18.0 PER
2 years later, avg of 23 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists with a .480 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 24.0 PER
--------------------------------------

I don't know where people get this notion that somebody entering the league at 21-22 years old can't improve much. Some players have improved a great deal, and most players have improved significantly when they had good talent to begin with. This is especially true if they have BBIQ and good work ethics like Lillard has

it used to be that the vast majority of players were starting their NBA careers at around 22. Very few of them did not improve dramatically as they gained more experience.

[Yuri Vaultin]

Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

All have a much lower basement too.

Yeah this is true, unless you are including davis i only can see injuries preventing him from becoming a greater player then Lillard. The fact is with Lillard that a lot of what you average young player improves upon is already pretty damn solid. He obviously can improve a decent amount but far less then you would assume he could when all you know is that he is a rookie.

I will go on record that I really, really like MKG and would not be surprised if he is the best of the bunch 3 years from now (although I am concerned about injuries given his style of play).

[NYK_89]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve.

Lillard is 22

Larry Bird turned 23 when he was a rookie and already had an extremely "polished game":

as a rookie, avg of 21 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists with a .474 FG%, .406 3pt%, and a 20.5 PER
5 years later, avg of 29 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists with a .522 FG%, .427 3pt%, and a 26.5 PER
----------------------------------------
Brandon Roy was older as a rookie then Lillard is, and he too, had a very polished game:

as a rookie, avg of 17 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists with a .456 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 18.0 PER
2 years later, avg of 23 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists with a .480 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 24.0 PER
--------------------------------------

I don't know where people get this notion that somebody entering the league at 21-22 years old can't improve much. Some players have improved a great deal, and most players have improved significantly when they had good talent to begin with. This is especially true if they have BBIQ and good work ethics like Lillard has

it used to be that the vast majority of players were starting their NBA careers at around 22. Very few of them did not improve dramatically as they gained more experience.

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

[DavidSterned]

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

Curious, can you find me some examples of an extremely talented player like Lillard that was Lillard's age who entered the league and then didn't improve? I'd love to know who these numerous people are.