Vegas Team Win lines (Prediction time!)

[HartfordWhalers]

I posted this on the TnT board, curious to see if there is any systematic different take on the general board. With the preseason now here, and at least one set of Vegas Lines on team win totals, who is being overrated and who is being underrated?

With the NBA season win total over/unders coming out earlier this week at the Las Vegas Hilton (LVH) in Las Vegas, here is a chart of those odds, the team wins from last year and the percentage changes between the two:


TEAM 13-’14 Win Total O/U 12-’13 Wins % Off Total Wins Off
Miami Heat 60 66 -7.32% -6
Los Angeles Clippers 57 56 1.22% 1
Chicago Bulls 56.5 45 14.02% 11.5
San Antonio Spurs 55.5 58 -3.05% -2.5
Houston Rockets 54.5 45 11.59% 9.5
Indiana Pacers 53.5 49 5.49% 4.5
Brooklyn Nets 52.5 49 4.27% 3.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 50.5 60 -11.59% -9.5
Golden State Warriors 49.5 47 3.05% 2.5
New York Knicks 49.5 54 -5.49% -4.5
Memphis Grizzlies 49 56 -8.54% -7
Denver Nuggets 47 57 -12.20% -10
Dallas Mavericks 44 41 3.66% 3
Washington Wizards 42 29 15.85% 13
Detroit Pistons 41 29 14.63% 12
Minnesota Twolves 41 31 12.20% 10
Cleveland Cavaliers 40.5 24 20.12% 16.5
Atlanta Hawks 40 44 -4.88% -4
New Orleans Pelicans 40 27 15.85% 13
Portland Blazers 38.5 33 6.71% 5.5
Toonto Raptors 36.5 34 3.05% 2.5
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 45 -14.02% -11.5
Sacramento Kings 31.5 28 4.27% 3.5
Milwaukee Bucks 28.5 38 -11.59% -9.5
Boston Celtics 27.5 41 -16.46% -13.5
Charlotte Bobcats 27.5 21 7.93% 6.5
Utah Jazz 27.5 43 -18.90% -15.5
Orlando Magic 24.5 20 5.49% 4.5
Phoenix Suns 21.5 25 -4.27% -3.5
Philadelphia 76ers 16.5 34 -21.34% -17.5

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2013/10/05 ... team-wins/


So, which look right? Which look more off than the Lakers winning 58 last year?

Here's the test.

Simple version:
Pick 3 teams that look too low, and 3 that look to high.

Advanced version:
Follow above, but also make a stab at every single line (Over, Under, Too close to call)

I am a Genius! (this isn't being saved, right?) version:
Follow above, and give an exact win total prediction for every single team.


So, who's feeling brave?

[Lolo]

Overrated

Clippers
Warriors
Brooklyn

Underrated

OKC
NYK
Portland

[Greatness]

I am a Genius! Version:

Miami Heat: Over/68
Los Angeles Clippers: Too high Under/55
Chicago Bulls: Under/56
San Antonio Spurs: Over/58
Houston Rockets: Under/53
Brooklyn Nets: Over/56
Oklahoma City Thunder: Too low Over/56
Golden State Warriors: Over/52
New York Knicks: Over/51
Memphis Grizzlies: Over/50
Denver Nuggets: Under/45
Dallas Mavericks: Under/41
Washington Wizards: Too high Under/38
Detroit Pistons: Under/39
Minnesota Twolves: Under/38
Cleveland Cavaliers: Too high Under/33
Atlanta Hawks: Too low Over/44
New Orleans Pelicans: Under/35
Portland Blazers: Over/40
Toronto Raptors: Over/40
Los Angeles Lakers: Too low Over/41
Sacramento Kings: Over/34
Milwaukee Bucks: Over/30
Boston Celtics: Over/29
Charlotte Bobcats: Under/24
Utah Jazz: Over/31
Orlando Magic: Under/23
Phoenix Suns: Over/26
Philadelphia 76ers: Over/19

[BlackFalconGSW]

Overrated

Clippers
Rockets
Raptors

Underrated

OKC
Bucks
Hawks

[Jadoogar]

Too High:
-Clippers
-Wizards
-Nuggets

Too Low:
-OKC (why?)
-Sixers (i don't think they're gonna be THAT bad)
-Warriors

[cjs55]

There was another thread on this in general discussion a few days ago. I'll post what I posted there with a few changes.

Overs (If I only can pick 3):

Pacers (they only got better. This is an easy over for me). Warriors (This team could easily be a 60 win team. Health is obviously a big problem, so I have them at 53 predicted). Bobcats (Al Jeff + improved talent = more wins).


Unders:

Wizards (I just don't think there's that much talent there). Pistons (I have close to 0 respect for Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings). Clippers (57 is just too high for them).


My win estimations:

East:

Heat 61 (too close)
Pacers 56 (over)
Bulls 55 (under)
Nets 54 (over)
Knicks 48 (under)
Hawks 42 (over)
Wizards 37 (under)
Cavs 37 (under)
Pistons 36 (under)
Raptors 34 (under)
Bobcats 31 (over)
Celtics 28 (too close)
Magic 27 (over)
Bucks 27 (under)
76ers 18 (too close)


West:

Rockets 56 (over)
Spurs 54 (too close)
Clippers 54 (under)
Thunder 53 (over)
Warriors 53 (over)
Grizzlies 50 (too close)
Nuggets 44 (under)
Timberwolves 43 (over)
Mavs 42 (under)
Pelicans 41 (too close)
Blazers 38 (too close)
Lakers 34 (too close)
Jazz 30 (over)
Kings 27 (under)
Suns 20 (under)

[QRich3]

Simple version:
Thunder, Bucks and Lakers look way too low to me. Knicks, Nuggets and Pistons are higher than I'd put them.

Advanced version:
I did that on the older thread so I'm just gonna quote myself:

HEAT 60.0 > SLIGHTLY UNDER
CLIPPERS 57.0 > ABOUT RIGHT
BULLS 56.5 > OVER
SPURS 55.5 > OVER
ROCKETS 54.5 > ABOUT RIGHT
PACERS 53.5 > OVER
NETS 52.5 > OVER
THUNDER 50.5 > OVER
KNICKS 49.5 > UNDER
WARRIORS 49.5 > OVER
GRIZZLIES 49.0 > OVER
NUGGETS 47.0 > UNDER
MAVERICKS 44.0 > UNDER
WIZARDS 42.0 > SLIGHTLY UNDER
TIMBERWOLVES 41.0 > ABOUT RIGHT
PISTONS 41.0 > UNDER
CAVALIERS 40.5 > UNDER
HAWKS 40.0 > SLIGHTLY OVER
PELICANS 40.0 > SLIGHTLY UNDER
TRAILBLAZERS 38.5 > ABOUT RIGHT
RAPTORS 36.5 > UNDER
LAKERS 33.5 > OVER
KINGS 31.5 > ABOUT RIGHT
BUCKS 28.5 > OVER
CELTICS 27.5 > ABOUT RIGHT
BOBCATS 27.5 > UNDER
JAZZ 27.5 > SLIGHTLY UNDER
MAGIC 24.5 > ABOUT RIGHT
SUNS 21.5 > ABOUT RIGHT
76ERS 16.5 > SLIGHTLY OVER

I am a Genius! (this isn't being saved, right?) version:
This is what I sent in the yearly preseason bet me & my buddies do (it's about who gets the most records and seed positioning exactly right, so it doesn't hurt you too much to take some wild guesses):

Code: Select all

-------------------------
1. IND 62 20 | SAS 63 19 |
2. CHI 60 22 | OKC 60 22 |
3. MIA 58 24 | LAC 58 24 |
4. BKN 55 27 | HOU 57 25 |
5. NYK 45 37 | MEM 55 27 |
6. ATL 40 42 | GSW 50 32 |
7. WAS 39 43 | MIN 45 37 |
8. MIL 35 47 | LAL 43 39 |
-------------------------|
9. CLE 34 48 | DEN 42 40 |
0. DET 32 50 | DAL 41 41 |
1. TOR 27 55 | NOP 39 43 |
2. BOS 25 57 | POR 35 47 |
3. CHA 23 59 | SAC 28 54 |
4. ORL 20 62 | UTA 22 60 |
5. PHI 17 65 | PHX 19 63 |
-------------------------

[Volcano]

Miami Heat 60 - OVER
Los Angeles Clippers 57 - CLOSE
Chicago Bulls 56.5 - OVER
San Antonio Spurs 55.5 - UNDER
Houston Rockets 54.5 - OVER
Indiana Pacers 53.5 - UNDER
Brooklyn Nets 52.5 - OVER
Oklahoma City Thunder 50.5 - OVER
Golden State Warriors 49.5 - CLOSE
New York Knicks 49.5 - CLOSE
Memphis Grizzlies 49 - OVER
Denver Nuggets 47 - OVER
Dallas Mavericks 44 - OVER
Washington Wizards 42 - UNDER
Detroit Pistons 41 - UNDER
Minnesota Twolves 41 - UNDER
Cleveland Cavaliers 40.5 - UNDER
Atlanta Hawks 40 - CLOSE
New Orleans Pelicans 40 - UNDER
Portland Blazers 38.5 - UNDER
Toonto Raptors 36.5 - OVER
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 - OVER
Sacramento Kings 31.5 - UNDER
Milwaukee Bucks 28.5 - OVER
Boston Celtics 27.5 - UNDER
Charlotte Bobcats 27.5 - CLOSE
Utah Jazz 27.5 - CLOSE
Orlando Magic 24.5 - UNDER
Phoenix Suns 21.5 - CLOSE
Philadelphia 76ers 16.5 - OVER

[vincecarter4pres]

I think I'd bang that under on Portland with some serious ferocity. I see them in the 28 to 35 win range. LMA is going to being playing hurt, or missing games, some legit, some milking it, til he's traded a month before the deadline.

The only problem is if they're treading water and he's traded in the rarer talent for talent deal instead of for a rebuilding package.

I'd take the over on Brooklyn, surprise, surprise! But seriously, the Nets should be a 55+ game winner with just reasonable health.

OKC seems a little low. I don't see them as nearly the threat they once were for the title and I don't think they approach 60 wins again, but low 50's, maybe 52 or 53 sounds dead on as long as Durant is healthy and Westbrook doesn't miss more then 2 months.

Miami over has to be the play right? I get 60 is a high total for any team, but they're so damn good. I still don't love it, but I'd put a small hedge bet type wager on them if I was putting in some of these other ones.

The under for Atlanta seems like a lock. A monster lock. They're a 35 win team to me without a huge trade. Then again, maybe that's exactly where Rondo or LMA is dealt while keeping Horford?

I like the under on the Nuggets, Knicks and the Spurs, but I wouldn't bet the farm on any of those.

I like the over on Minny, but I just do not trust their health. I'd bite the bullet and go over though.

The Celtics are going way under.

Don't trust the Kings, give me the under.

Putting the house on the under on the Grizzlies.

The farm will be bet on the Suns under.

The Sixers under is so low, but I look at that roster and I feel like they should be contracted. UNDER.

I'm gonna go heavy over on Houston. I think they're going to have the 2nd best record in the league.

Having a lot of trouble giving this much credit to that group of low BBIQ knuckleheads in Detroit. Talent alone should secure them 30 something wins, but you want me to put straight cash on them winning 40 something, homie? I'll gladly go under here.

Feeling the same with Washington. I mean someone has to make the playoffs in the East, but after a super strong top 5 in conference, there are so many question marks whether health, bad teams, players living off the hype of potential? Look at the Wiz... Wall is always hurt and so far living off his name, Nene is awesome but always hurt, Okafor is already hurt, Porter is hurt. Love Beal, but IDK man, think they sneak in the playoffs as the 8 seed, but with 37 to 40 wins.

Utah never seems to really have to tank, nor does it feel like they fully rebuild "properly", but it feels like this is that rare year. I love some of the individual long term talent they have, but it just feels like they're too young, too inexperienced, too directionless and with too many guys trying to individually prove themselves and shine to come together and win much. I'd stay away from this one, but between them and Golden State these are the two close calls I still be willing to throw some dough on, both the under.


Those are the ones that really jump out at me.

[Prospect Dong]

I think I'd bang that under on Portland with some serious ferocity. I see them in the 28 to 35 win range. LMA is going to being playing hurt, or missing games, some legit, some milking it, til he's traded a month before the deadline.

The only problem is if they're treading water and he's traded in the rarer talent for talent deal instead of for a rebuilding package.

I'd take the over on Brooklyn, surprise, surprise! But seriously, the Nets should be a 55+ game winner with just reasonable health.

OKC seems a little low. I don't see them as nearly the threat they once were for the title and I don't think they approach 60 wins again, but low 50's, maybe 52 or 53 sounds dead on as long as Durant is healthy and Westbrook doesn't miss more then 2 months.

Miami over has to be the play right? I get 60 is a high total for any team, but they're so damn good. I still don't love it, but I'd put a small hedge bet type wager on them if I was putting in some of these other ones.

The under for Atlanta seems like a lock. A monster lock. They're a 35 win team to me without a huge trade. Then again, maybe that's exactly where Rondo or LMA is dealt while keeping Horford?

I like the under on the Nuggets, Knicks and the Spurs, but I wouldn't bet the farm on any of those.

I like the over on Minny, but I just do not trust their health. I'd bite the bullet and go over though.

The Celtics are going way under.

Don't trust the Kings, give me the under.

Putting the house on the under on the Grizzlies.

The farm will be bet on the Suns under.

The Sixers under is so low, but I look at that roster and I feel like they should be contracted. UNDER.

I'm gonna go heavy over on Houston. I think they're going to have the 2nd best record in the league.

Having a lot of trouble giving this much credit to that group of low BBIQ knuckleheads in Detroit. Talent alone should secure them 30 something wins, but you want me to put straight cash on them winning 40 something, homie? I'll gladly go under here.

Feeling the same with Washington. I mean someone has to make the playoffs in the East, but after a super strong top 5 in conference, there are so many question marks whether health, bad teams, players living off the hype of potential? Look at the Wiz... Wall is always hurt and so far living off his name, Nene is awesome but always hurt, Okafor is already hurt, Porter is hurt. Love Beal, but IDK man, think they sneak in the playoffs as the 8 seed, but with 37 to 40 wins.

Utah never seems to really have to tank, nor does it feel like they fully rebuild "properly", but it feels like this is that rare year. I love some of the individual long term talent they have, but it just feels like they're too young, too inexperienced, too directionless and with too many guys trying to individually prove themselves and shine to come together and win much. I'd stay away from this one, but between them and Golden State these are the two close calls I still be willing to throw some dough on, both the under.


Those are the ones that really jump out at me.

I disagree pretty strongly on the griz - though that may be a homer pick. I'd pretty happily take the over on them winning 7 less games than last year with a slightly improved roster in a tougher conference.

Maybe it's worth noting that I happen to remember you had them as winning "in the mid 30's" prior to the 2010-11 season, after they'd just won 40 as the youngest team in the league. They won 46. So I guess this feels like it might be a blind spot on your part - but I'd be happy to hear your reasons this time round.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&p=25165464

[vincecarter4pres]

Putting the house on the under on the Grizzlies.

I disagree pretty strongly on the griz - though that may be a homer pick. I'd pretty happily take the over on them winning 7 less games than last year with a slightly improved roster in a tougher conference.

Maybe it's worth noting that I happen to remember you had them as winning "in the mid 30's" prior to the 2010-11 season, after they'd just won 40 as the youngest team in the league. They won 46. So I guess this feels like it might be a blind spot on your part - but I'd be happy to hear your reasons this time round.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&p=25165464

Eh, I have nothing against the Griz. I wasn't a Rudy Gay fan though, at all and it definitely gave me some bias against them. But then he seemed to transform himself that season before getting hurt, I equated that to his time with Coach K Also at the time, although once he came back the next year he regressed back to a bucket of ball stopping suck. Zbo was still mainly considered the same old Zbo, the reputation he had earned himself at the time. Conley was still pretty meh as well. Gasol was emerging but he seemed a little soft, especially physically in the literal sense.

I was wrong though, I'm not trying to get out of it, but context is needed.

This year, first I'd start with Zbo. I think he was showing serious signs of falling off last year.

Then although I didn't like Hollins much, I still feel like he had them playing at a better then a sum of their parts level.

Conley has actually grown on me a lot and Gasol has become a great defender and very good overall player.

I guess betting the farm is a little strong, I just feel they're destined for say 42 to 49 wins specifically this year. I might be wildly off, I often am haha.

[ATLHawksfan21]

The under for Atlanta seems like a lock. A monster lock. They're a 35 win team to me without a huge trade. Then again, maybe that's exactly where Rondo or LMA is dealt while keeping Horford?

Those are the ones that really jump out at me.

I would like to hear your reasoning for Atlanta. Call me a homer but I feel like I know my team well and I think they finish in the 5-6 spot again this year with around 45 wins. I expect this team to be better than last year's assuming everyone stays healthy and Lou Will returns to form. I plan on making a big bet on this total and am looking for other opinions before I do so.

Obviously the loss of Josh Smith will be felt but I don't think his absence will hurt near as much as most people. Smith is heavily overrated just like Joe Johnson was and the Hawks hardly missed a beat once Johnson left. I expect the same to happen with Smith.

Milsap will be better on offense than Smith but Smith is superior defensively. The Hawks have brought in Demare Carroll and Elton Brand to help make up for Smith's absence on the defensive end. The addition of Carroll will allow Korver to play the 2 which should make for an improved defensive unit. I expect the coaching change to be a big plus with Coach Bud adopting the Spurs style of offensive play. All 5 starters are going to have the greenlight to shoot the corner 3 which should provide a ton of spacing for Teague, Lou and Schroder to attack the rim.

A frontline rotation of Horford, Milsap, Brand, Ayon will be better than the frontline that the Hawks used for the second half of last year with Smith, Horford, Ivan, Petro.

This should be a fundamentally sound squad that will play hard on a nightly basis which can't be said for previous Atlanta teams. The East will be much improved though which is my one reason to be weary of this total. The Hawks could have a better team than last year but end up with a worse record due to other teams improving even more.

[Ahmed1212]

Overrated
Knicks
Nets
Rockets

Underrated
Raptors
Warriors
Cavs

[HartfordWhalers]

Here is what I went with (also apologies for missing the early thread on the GB about the topic.)

Thats not much predicted improvement for Brooklyn, I think they win more so the line is too low, and the team will go OVER. Jazz aren't winning 28 or more, they are going UNDER that line. Denver as my pick for another under, I see them as a 45 win team that can do worse than that.

Det, Cle, and Wash will all be fighting for the last spots in the East. As bad as the bottom of the conference will be, I have trouble seeing all of them within half a game of 500 or better. So, I think two of the three teams go (UNDER). Washington and Detroit have higher lines, so they get picked first. I'm taking Washington here as my third.

Remaining Overs? Atlanta. Atlanta might drop 2 wins, but not 4. The pessimist in me thinks Philly can be better than that, but hopefully they cannot... still, I think I should stay away from this one. Bucks win 30? Its not far fetched but I'm drinking the Houston koolaid, so I'm going with that.

Line too high:
Utah
Denver
Washington

Line too low:
Brooklyn
Atlanta
Houston

Advanced and with my knee jerk win totals in parenthesis:

Miami Heat 60 OVER (62)
Los Angeles Clippers 57 OVER/PUSH (58)
Chicago Bulls 56.5 UNDER/PUSH (55)
San Antonio Spurs 55.5 UNDER (53)
Houston Rockets 54.5 OVER (57)
Indiana Pacers 53.5 UNDER/PUSH (52)
Brooklyn Nets 52.5 OVER (54)
Oklahoma City Thunder 50.5 OVER (52)
Golden State Warriors 49.5 OVER/PUSH (50)
New York Knicks 49.5 OVER/PUSH (50)
Memphis Grizzlies 49 OVER (53)
Denver Nuggets 47 UNDER (43)
Dallas Mavericks 44 UNDER/PUSH (42)
Washington Wizards 42 UNDER (38)
Detroit Pistons 41 UNDER (39)
Minnesota Twolves 41 OVER/PUSH (42)
Cleveland Cavaliers 40.5 UNDER/PUSH (40)
Atlanta Hawks 40 OVER (45)
New Orleans Pelicans 40 UNDER/PUSH (38)
Portland Blazers 38.5 UNDER (36)
Toonto Raptors 36.5 34 UNDER/PUSH (35)
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 45 UNDER/PUSH (30)
Sacramento Kings 31.5 28 UNDER/PUSH (31)
Milwaukee Bucks 28.5 38 OVER (32)
Boston Celtics 27.5 OVER (31)
Charlotte Bobcats 27.5 UNDER/PUSH (27)
Utah Jazz 27.5 UNDER (23)
Orlando Magic 24.5 UNDER (22)
Phoenix Suns 21.5 25 OVER (24)
Philadelphia 76ers 16.5 34 OVER (19)

[Verballer]

So a team which have had 56 wins with multiple injuries,who have had a top 10 offseason at the very least can't get an extra win?I say 58 trying to prevent to be a homer.
Stop calling the Clippers overrated because they are easily a top 7 team and maybe even top 5

[Bank Shot]

Too high:
Wiz
Mavs
Clippers

Too low:
OKC - I just don't see how a team with Durant can stay under 50.
Chicago - They just play harder than anyone else during the regular season.
Atl - They'll miss his D but Brand will help make up for that and there's some serious addition by subtraction potential for their offense.

[Ell Curry]

I have to do way more statistical research to put any cash down, but my early thoughts:

Utah Over 27.5

They had a much worse D with Al Jefferson out there (-9.8). Randy Foye seems to have also been terrible defensively. The team played better with Kanter and Burks out there, and they'll have to play more this year with those 2 gone. Losing MIllsap hurts, but Favors, Hayward and especially Kanter could be much improved. I think Burke will be able to hit an open 3 and run a decent P+R as a rookie, though his terrible play in the summer scares me, so I'll watch the pre-season for this. The guy has improved a ton each of the last 3 seasons and is a hard-working, mature player. Jeremy Evans put up good numbers in limited time and Brandon Rush is a good player who could help them start well before his inevitable trade to a contender.

So, we're not talking about a playoff team (definitely not in the West) but they won 30 at home and 13 on the road last year. I think they can win 22-23 at home (Utah will still be loud and full of terrifying mormons) and 8-10 on the road and that would put them around 30. It might be a scary bet, but I think this team will be a bit better than the dregs of the league. I just don't see why they will be 16 games worse. Losing Millsap might cost them 6-8, but Jefferson and Foye's replacement's can't really play any worse (and while Burks might just be a slight improvement I think Kanter will be good this year). Wish they had a better coach, but oh well.

People will say the West is too tough, but while Houston, the Pelicans and T-Wolves or Portland should be about 10 wins better each (with the other winning maybe 5 more), Denver and the Lakers should be at least 10 worse and OKC dropping from 60 to 55 and Utah themselves going from 43 to about 33 would cover those improvements.

Celtics under 27.5

They have a horrendous frontcourt defensively, they are probably tanking very hard and until Rondo comes back they could have the single worst offense in the L, with the extremely inefficient Avery Bradley, Pressey and Jordan Crawford running pick and rolls. Stevens is probably a genius, so I am a bit worried about that, and they could go 4-0 against the Sixers, but I just don't see how a team with Humphries/Olynyk at the 5 isn't terrible on D, and how a team with no good perimeter creator (though I guess Crawford could break out under Stevens) can be good on O, so this looks like a 22-25 win team to me. They won 41 last year and were way better with KG and Pierce on the court.With Pierce out there, they had an decent O. With KG out there they had a decent D. Both are gone and so I think they'll be in the high 20's on O and D.

Wizards under 42

I actually kind of like the Wizards but if Wall or Nene miss a combined 30 games even, this team will not win 42 games, and if they both stay healthy the ceiling is what, 46-48 games? Martell Webster is injury prone, too, and Okafor is already hurt and their big man depth is really weak (Seraphin is bad and Booker regressed last year). This just seems like a situation where if they did the season 10 times, they'd win under 42 games 6-7 times, so it makes sense to bet against them, even if it's a bit evil to be rooting for a Wiretap/ESPN headline saying "Wall out for season" or "Nene to miss 6-8 weeks".