2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt III

[kingkirk]

Part II found here:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1294047

Continue on with the close of the award and the season.

[HotRocks34]

Let's be honest here

LeBron just went Mt Rushmore on the MVP race

[EArl]

Still have KD at the top, but it is a race. I see it like KD came exploding out of the gates and is starting to get tired, while Lebron is picking it up. If KD can get his second wind he will win, if not Lebron gets it.

[HotRocks34]

There's a lot more actual analysis to be done about the MVP race (as compared with my comment above), IMO. So let's do it.

Mark Stein asked in the other MVP thread (via a tweet) what MVP race was the best once since the current one. My answer: 2007-08 with Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul.

That year, Kobe won the award by a fairly small margin (216 pts) with Kobe getting 1105 points and Paul getting 889 points.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... _2008.html

If you remember that year, the Lakers had the best record in the West by 1 game over the Hornets at the end of the season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2008.html

However, the Lakers had a worse record than one other team in the NBA, the 66-16 Celtics. But the Celtics had no individual player who could crack the Top 2 of the MVP race (Garnett was 3rd).

Thus, Kobe won the award while finishing just one game ahead of Paul and the Hornets.

LeBron led the league in both PPG (30.0) and PER (29.1)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.html

Kobe was second in PPG (28.3). Paul was 19th in the league in scoring PPG (21.1). Paul led the league in APG with 11.6.

Paul had a decided edge in two key advanced statistics, PER and WS/48. Here's how that looked for Kobe and Paul.

Kobe --- 24.2 PER (#8 in league); .208 WS/48 (#8 in league)
Paul ---- 28.3 PER (#2 in league); .284 WS/48 (#1 in league)

Paul was also the only 20/10 PPG/APG player in the league that season.

Thus, Paul had a considerable lead in the advanced statistics department based upon those two measurements over Kobe. Yet, the better regular season record won out in the end, it seems.

*

Fast forward to 2013-14.

The analogy goes like this

Garnett/BOS = George/IND
Kobe = LeBron
Durant = Paul

What I mean is that you could see the player with the "worse" stats get the MVP, as Kobe seemed to do in 2007-08. Although, with LeBron's outburst tonight, he may not have the "worse" stats for long. At least not in an advanced stats way.

George isn't a serious contender right now, which takes him and Indiana out of the running as Garnett and the Celtics were for the MVP hunt in 2007-08.

Paul likely had the better season than Kobe, I think, but he didn't win the award. And I think that might happen to Durant this year.

You have to feel bad for Durant. This guy might put up a Top 10-15 season this year and it still might not be enough.

PER is now almost even between James and Durant. Durant likely still has the WS/48 lead, while James has the TS% lead. Durant leads in PPG, but he also takes more FGA/gm than does James.

I believe the Heat now have the 2nd best record in the NBA (behind Houston, whom they play tomorrow) since January 1. Or, to put it another way, since the time when Durant put up his monster month in January.

*

There's been a lot of talk this year about "LeBron coasting," and all of that. I want to say something about that, something I mentioned in an earlier version of this thread.

LeBron is trying to do something no other player has done in the history of the NBA, or even had the chance to do. He's trying to complete this feat in a 4-year time period:

Olympic Gold Medal
3 consecutive MVPs
3-peat
3 consecutive FMVPs
4 consecutive Finals made

The person who came the closest to the above parameters was Bill Russell in 1960-1963. Russell went to 4 straight Finals (won them all), won 3 straight MVPs (1961-1963), and probably would have won 3 straight FMVPs from 1961-63 had the award been given out at that time.

Russell did not compete in the Olympic games during that period of time, however. But he is the closest example of what LeBron is trying to do now. Wilt won 3 straight MVPs and so did Bird, but they were less close to the feat LeBron is trying to accomplish now than was Russell.

LeBron has been fighting fatigue and minor injuries all season. Heck, he's hurt now with the nose. But he's clearly taken his game up to Olympus Level and is putting on a charge. Jordan said he was not sure if he could have won 4 straight Finals because of the toll it takes on your mind and body. Well, that's what LeBron is trying to do now (well, get to 4 straight Finals, anyways), while also trying to win 3 straight MVPs (MJ never did it). This ain't easy, folks. The guy is tired and he's trying to fight through it. This has never been done or attempted in NBA history, probably with good reason.

Additionally, LeBron is trying to secure his fifth career 30+ PER season. If he does so, he will pass Jordan (whom he's tied with) at 4 such seasons. And if LeBron does so, he will become the oldest player and also the player with the most mileage to ever put up a 30+ PER season.

What I'm saying is that you are witnessing history right now. Or a chase at history. Pay attention, because this will not happen very many times again in the future, if ever.

Durant, unfortunately, lost the narrative. He lost the narrative of "maybe surpassing LeBron" as well as the narrative of "OKC the best team in the league." He also just lost the "most spectacular" narrative after LeBron's 61.

The LeBron/Durant 2014 vs Kobe/Paul 2008 comparison isn't a perfect one. The Lakers did win the West (best record) whereas the Heat are #2 in the East. Additionally, there was a strong push for Kobe to win the 2008 MVP award even had the Hornets gotten the better record over the Lakers.

Still, I think 2007-08 may be the best comparison for the current race. And if Miami finishes ahead of OKC in the standings, I don't think Durant is going to have a real good shot to win the award. Particularly if LeBron and the Heat continue to do what they are doing now, having won like 11 of their last 12 games.

[James Rustles]

^Disagreed about Durant losing the narrative. Having Westbrook go down again on a short notice and then watching Durant step up and obliterate basically everyone in the month of January is probably going to finish as the individual highlight of the season. That combined with Durant having better overall numbers and having the first seed in the tougher conference vs MIA only having the 2nd seed in the far weaker conference and Durant has to have the MVP lead right now. LeBron is closing the gap though, no doubt.

[HotRocks34]

^Disagreed about Durant losing the narrative. Having Westbrook go down again on a short notice and then watching Durant step up and obliterate basically everyone in the month of January is probably going to finish as the individual highlight of the season. That combined with Durant having better overall numbers and having the first seed in the tougher conference vs MIA only having the 2nd seed in the far weaker conference and Durant has to have the MVP lead right now. LeBron is closing the gap though, no doubt.

It's a good point, and it's probably Durant's best argument right now. The problem is, the narrative keeps changing. So when Legler says it's "what have you done for me lately," I agree. As weird as it sounds, KD's incredible January seems like awhile ago now because the tune changes every day.

I think Miami has now won like 6 straight with Wade out. That probably coincides with LeBron's feeling better physically, although I'm not sure. And if anyone doubted what he could do without Wade, I think hanging 61 on Charlotte probably helps.

Miami's record against the West, I think, likely will negate the "weaker conference" argument. Miami has a tough schedule coming up, so their SOS should go up. But they have to keep winning. And they still have 6 more back to back's left, which means 6 games without Wade, likely.

You can't take anything away from Durant. He's poised to become just the 8th man in NBA history to have a 30+ PER season, as well as like just the 4th or so to have a .300+ WS/48 season. He's clearly stepped up his game.

If the season ended today, I think LeBron wins MVP. But we've still got a long way to go.

[ThePersianFreak]

Durant and LeBron's numbers are pretty much the same after tonight's game.

27.5/7/6.4 on 58.3% (66.2% ts%, 38.4% 3pt%)
vs
31.6/7.7/5.6 on 0.507% (63.6% ts%, 39.6% 3pt%)

And 2.6% advantage in ts% is ALOT!

LeBron's PER: 30.3
KD's PER:30.4

LeBron's also has a big advantage in EF%
So that "Durant's having better numbers" thing is no more valid. stop it.

And Wade's been missing like 16-17 games as well, so it's not like KD's the only one who's carried a big load. at the end of the day, if the Heat finish with a better record LeBron will get it. at this point the Heat have a better record, so LeBron has the lead.

[HotRocks34]

There's one other thing I should say about Durant that I found in my research for all of this (been doing a lot of research on this topic recently).

From historical comparisons, this seems to be likely about the best statistical season Durant will ever put up. That doesn't mean he won't improve, of course, but statistically and in advanced stats, this might be about as high as he ever gets (which isn't hard to believe if he gets 30+ PER and .300+ WS/48).

I looked up each of the 7 men who put up 30+ PER years (Wilt, Jordan, LeBron, Shaq, David Robinson, TMac, Wade) and found that all of them had topped-out on PER, I believe, by their 7th season. I think that is what it was, or very close to it. Durant is in his 7th season.

However, what I did see was that Shaq and another player with a similar style to Durant -- Dirk Nowitzki -- were able to raise up their WS/48 into their 8th season, which is where Durant would be next year.

So this is probably close to the "ceiling" for Durant from a statistical point of view, at least advanced stats. Except for WS/48, which may still climb if Dirk and Shaq are good comparables for Durant.

I say this because many people say that "Durant is just hitting his prime." That is true, but the historical comparisons also say this might be about his top end statistically, at least in an advanced stats way.

Finally, it looks like it will be very tough for LeBron to get any more 30+ PER years going forward. LeBron is 28-29 years old this season with like 38,000 career minutes. The only other person to get 30+ PER at 28-29 was Shaq. Although, Jordan did come close later in his career, I believe. LeBron's age, season number (11), and career mileage would make him the "oldest" player to ever achieve a 30+ PER season should he do so this year.

[TheBargnaniRule]

I have KD but really is anyone going to be mad as long as either KD or Lebron take it? They're both having amazing seasons and are both MVP worthy. This isn't like Derrick Rose winning in 2011, I'd be fine with either guy taking the trophy.

[HotRocks34]

Durant and LeBron's numbers are pretty much the same after tonight's game.

27.5/7/6.4 on 58.3% (66.2% ts%, 38.4% 3pt%)
vs
31.6/7.7/5.6 on 0.507% (63.6% ts%, 39.6% 3pt%)

And 2.6% advantage in ts% is ALOT!

LeBron's PER: 30.3
KD's PER:30.4

LeBron's also has a big advantage in EF%
So that "Durant's having better numbers" thing is no more valid. stop it.

And Wade's been missing like 16-17 games as well, so it's not like KD's the only one who's carried a big load. at the end of the day, if the Heat finish with a better record LeBron will get it. at this point the Heat have a better record, so LeBron has the lead.

Thanks for the updated stats, appreciate it!



It's a close race. I also have LeBron in the lead, but either guy could win it and both are deserving, IMO.

[raps_aviator]

I posted this on the previous thread.

Lebron's Last 5 Games:

61 points, 66.7% FG
20 points, 66.7% FG
31 points, 68.4% FG
33 points, 68.2% FG
42 points, 68.6% FG

[ThePersianFreak]

I posted this on the previous thread.

Lebron's Last 5 Games:

61 points, 66.7% FG
20 points, 66.7% FG
31 points, 68.4% FG
33 points, 68.2% FG
42 points, 68.6% FG

And two games before those

36 points, 54%
37 points, 55%

-------

I just checked ESPN's stats
LeBron's PER is 30.37, And KD's 30.44. so it's even closer than i though.

[Keller61]

Who cares about PER? There are a lot of questionable things in the formula: rebounds worth more than assists, steals worth more than blocks, etc. I think that stat is pretty much useless for player comparisons. If two players are close in PER, then you need more specific stats and context to form an opinion on who's better. If two players are not close in PER, then you probably already know who's better.

[Keller61]

I still think Durant deserves the MVP if he gets the #1 seed in the west and LeBron doesn't get the #1 seed in the east. The goal of the regular season is to get the best record, and so far KD has had a better season in terms of contributing the most to his team's record. As great as LeBron has been recently, games in November and December count just as much in the standings as games today. He needs to get that #1 seed (unless the Thunder lose their #1 seed) to make up for letting games slip earlier in the season.

[LBJ-ITALY]

I'm a big LBJ fan, but I think it is tied right now, but Lebron needs to keep it going if he want to take it over Durante!

[xStanton27]

I posted this on the previous thread.

Lebron's Last 5 Games:

61 points, 66.7% FG
20 points, 66.7% FG
31 points, 68.4% FG
33 points, 68.2% FG
42 points, 68.6% FG

Those field goal percentages are just absurd

[Joao Saraiva]

Why are people saying LeBron has to get #1 seed? That's not true. He just has to have a better record than OKC. Indiana's record is irrelevant because no player from IND will steal the MVP award.

There was a gap in the stats with LeBron at 27 PER, 25PPG and just 1% ahead of KD in ts. This was long ago, LeBron has caught KD here. Below on some stats (PPG, Ws) and ahead on others (APG, ts%).

It's no secret LeBron contributes more on D.

If the Heat go on having a better record than OKC it's done, LeBron will win 5 MVP awards. I hope he does it so that I can read some more excuses of why guys like Bird or Magic are ahead of LeBron.

[HotRocks34]

Here's the updated info on the "without Wade" and "without Westbrook" stuff.

OKC without Westbrook ---------> 22-08 = .733 --------> OKC season winning percentage = .750

MIA without Wade ---------------> 10-06 = .625 --------> MIA season winning percentage = .754

Miami has 6 more back to backs. Which means likely 6 more games, at least, without Wade.

[xStanton27]

I'll be shocked if Lebron has a good game today, back to back night @ Houston, after dropping 61 the night before, sounds like a trap

[Heat3]

Apparently Ric Bucher has decided he'll vote for Paul George for MVP. For all of you wondering why this race isn't "over" between Durant and Lebron, you must remember that the people with votes cast their vote a certain way for different reasons...