There's a lot more actual analysis to be done about the MVP race (as compared with my comment above), IMO. So let's do it.
Mark Stein asked in the other MVP thread (via a tweet) what MVP race was the best once since the current one. My answer: 2007-08 with Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul.
That year, Kobe won the award by a fairly small margin (216 pts) with Kobe getting 1105 points and Paul getting 889 points.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... _2008.htmlIf you remember that year, the Lakers had the best record in the West by 1 game over the Hornets at the end of the season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2008.htmlHowever, the Lakers had a worse record than one other team in the NBA, the 66-16 Celtics. But the Celtics had no individual player who could crack the Top 2 of the MVP race (Garnett was 3rd).
Thus, Kobe won the award while finishing just one game ahead of Paul and the Hornets.
LeBron led the league in both PPG (30.0) and PER (29.1)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... aders.htmlKobe was second in PPG (28.3). Paul was 19th in the league in scoring PPG (21.1). Paul led the league in APG with 11.6.
Paul had a decided edge in two key advanced statistics, PER and WS/48. Here's how that looked for Kobe and Paul.
Kobe --- 24.2 PER (#8 in league); .208 WS/48 (#8 in league)
Paul ---- 28.3 PER (#2 in league); .284 WS/48 (#1 in league)
Paul was also the only 20/10 PPG/APG player in the league that season.
Thus, Paul had a considerable lead in the advanced statistics department based upon those two measurements over Kobe. Yet, the better regular season record won out in the end, it seems.
*
Fast forward to 2013-14.
The analogy goes like this
Garnett/BOS = George/IND
Kobe = LeBron
Durant = Paul
What I mean is that you could see the player with the "worse" stats get the MVP, as Kobe seemed to do in 2007-08. Although, with LeBron's outburst tonight, he may not have the "worse" stats for long. At least not in an advanced stats way.
George isn't a serious contender right now, which takes him and Indiana out of the running as Garnett and the Celtics were for the MVP hunt in 2007-08.
Paul likely had the better season than Kobe, I think, but he didn't win the award. And I think that might happen to Durant this year.
You have to feel bad for Durant. This guy might put up a Top 10-15 season this year and it still might not be enough.
PER is now almost even between James and Durant. Durant likely still has the WS/48 lead, while James has the TS% lead. Durant leads in PPG, but he also takes more FGA/gm than does James.
I believe the Heat now have the 2nd best record in the NBA (behind Houston, whom they play tomorrow) since January 1. Or, to put it another way, since the time when Durant put up his monster month in January.
*
There's been a lot of talk this year about "LeBron coasting," and all of that. I want to say something about that, something I mentioned in an earlier version of this thread.
LeBron is trying to do something no other player has done in the history of the NBA, or even had the chance to do. He's trying to complete this feat in a 4-year time period:
Olympic Gold Medal
3 consecutive MVPs
3-peat
3 consecutive FMVPs
4 consecutive Finals made
The person who came the closest to the above parameters was Bill Russell in 1960-1963. Russell went to 4 straight Finals (won them all), won 3 straight MVPs (1961-1963), and probably would have won 3 straight FMVPs from 1961-63 had the award been given out at that time.
Russell did not compete in the Olympic games during that period of time, however. But he is the closest example of what LeBron is trying to do now. Wilt won 3 straight MVPs and so did Bird, but they were less close to the feat LeBron is trying to accomplish now than was Russell.
LeBron has been fighting fatigue and minor injuries all season. Heck, he's hurt now with the nose. But he's clearly taken his game up to Olympus Level and is putting on a charge. Jordan said he was not sure if he could have won 4 straight Finals because of the toll it takes on your mind and body. Well, that's what LeBron is trying to do now (well, get to 4 straight Finals, anyways), while also trying to win 3 straight MVPs (MJ never did it). This ain't easy, folks. The guy is tired and he's trying to fight through it. This has never been done or attempted in NBA history, probably with good reason.
Additionally, LeBron is trying to secure his fifth career 30+ PER season. If he does so, he will pass Jordan (whom he's tied with) at 4 such seasons. And if LeBron does so, he will become the oldest player and also the player with the most mileage to ever put up a 30+ PER season.
What I'm saying is that you are witnessing history right now. Or a chase at history. Pay attention, because this will not happen very many times again in the future, if ever.
Durant, unfortunately, lost the narrative. He lost the narrative of "maybe surpassing LeBron" as well as the narrative of "OKC the best team in the league." He also just lost the "most spectacular" narrative after LeBron's 61.
The LeBron/Durant 2014 vs Kobe/Paul 2008 comparison isn't a perfect one. The Lakers did win the West (best record) whereas the Heat are #2 in the East. Additionally, there was a strong push for Kobe to win the 2008 MVP award even had the Hornets gotten the better record over the Lakers.
Still, I think 2007-08 may be the best comparison for the current race. And if Miami finishes ahead of OKC in the standings, I don't think Durant is going to have a real good shot to win the award. Particularly if LeBron and the Heat continue to do what they are doing now, having won like 11 of their last 12 games.