Fico92 wrote:He's sub 50% now and under 31ppg...my guess is he'll end at 27-28ppg and 46-47%.
Those averages would be pretty incredible and well above his career averages. I highly doubt he gets there because he still takes some very stupid shot and his mid-range shooting is unsustainable. I'm guessing he ends up in 23ppg range shooting in the low 40s.
Yeah, he's really not taking the best shots ATM, and that's kind of expected given the increase in volume. Of the 5.4 more FGA DeMar is taking, 4.7 of them occur between 10' and the 3 point line. He's getting to the rim with similar frequency - 0.44 less FGA within 3 feet, but 1.2 more FTA (which is around 0.53 FGA via the 0.44 TS% conversion).
If his field goal + free throw distribution was identical to 2016-17, but his percentages all reverted to 2015-16, his points would drop from 30.9 to 28.6, and his TS% would drop from 56.5 to 52.3