RealGM

Pt 1:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1482190

A quick shout out to those who called it (at least the first half of the MVP race), in early October ^^^.

Harden slight favorite and just got off a hell of road trip. How he responds to getting ran over by the pacers is crucial for his campaign. . Rockets as whole have gotten off track a little bit.

Phreak50 wrote:So post the current year stats and let's see how consistent the stat is?

Again, the Spurs with possibly the best bench in the league is the big factor in this rating and bench vs bench, the Spurs are almost always going to make this stat pointless in comparing their top players.

Presumably these are the top guys that could possible get MVP votes -

Russell Westbrook +15.6
Kyle Lowry +15.2
Stephen Curry +14.1
LeBron James +13.1
Kevin Durant +7.6
Giannis Antentokounpo +6.3
James Harden +4.9
Kawhi Leonard -1.5

It's worth noting that Leonard is the only one with a negative on/off. Not a huge red flag, but it is something that gives you pause if you're gonna rank him ahead of the other guys, and certainly would require a deeper dive into why this is happening.

That's not net rating, it's on/off. Big difference.

bondom34 wrote:That's not net rating, it's on/off. Big difference.

Yhea, I was talking about on/off in the original post he was quoting. My bad.

PeptoKlepto wrote:

Phreak50 wrote:So post the current year stats and let's see how consistent the stat is?

Again, the Spurs with possibly the best bench in the league is the big factor in this rating and bench vs bench, the Spurs are almost always going to make this stat pointless in comparing their top players.

Presumably these are the top guys that could possible get MVP votes -

Russell Westbrook +15.6
Kyle Lowry +15.2
Stephen Curry +14.1
LeBron James +13.1
Kevin Durant +7.6
Giannis Antentokounpo +6.3
James Harden +4.9
Kawhi Leonard -1.5

It's worth noting that Leonard is the only one with a negative on/off. Not a huge red flag, but it is something that gives you pause if you're gonna rank him ahead of the other guys, and certainly would require a deeper dive into why this is happening.

NET RATING:

Stephen Curry +16.8
Kevin Durant +15.2
Kawhi Leonard +8.1
LeBron James +7.3
James Haden +6.5
Russell Westbrook +4.2

I more and more think Curry should be in the conversation for MVP (despite the media will never give it to him). He has a legit case.

Another way to look at the player efficiency: Playe | % of assisted FGs | TS%

Paul 17.7% 61.1%
Harden 18.3% 61.7%
Westbrook 19.6% 53.9%
LBJ 37.2% 60.2%
Kyrie 31.2% 58%
Curry 43.9% 63%
KD 54.6% 65.8%
Kawhi 47.3% 62.5%

honorable mention:
Klay 85.5% 58%

Paul, Harden, Westbrook have to consistently create their own shots. The first two still maintain above 60% TS. Curry and KD get way more assisted shots, while having slightly higher TS%.

I am just pointing out people should not only look at the shooting efficiency without taking a deeper look where those shot come from. Of course, you can say 'oh they are more valuable because they contribute to a better offense which generates more assisted shots' - then we are back to the legendary never ending debate again - he makes the team better VS he looks better because of the team.

ken6199 wrote:Another way to look at the player efficiency: Playe | % of assisted FGs | TS%

Paul 17.7% 61.1%
Harden 18.3% 61.7%
Westbrook 19.6% 53.9%
LBJ 37.2% 60.2%
Kyrie 31.2% 58%
Curry 43.9% 63%
KD 54.6% 65.8%
Kawhi 47.3% 62.5%

honorable mention:
Klay 85.5% 58%

Paul, Harden, Westbrook have to consistently create their own shots. The first two still maintain above 60% TS. Curry and KD get way more assisted shots, while having slightly higher TS%.

I am just pointing out people should not only look at the shooting efficiency without taking a deeper look where those shot come from. Of course, you can say 'oh they are more valuable because they contribute to a better offense which generates more assisted shots' - then we are back to the legendary never ending debate again - he makes the team better VS he looks better because of the team.

They have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball players. Why should that be held against guys like Curry, 'Bron and Kawhi, who are just as useful off the ball as they are on?

PeptoKlepto wrote:

ken6199 wrote:Another way to look at the player efficiency: Playe | % of assisted FGs | TS%

Paul 17.7% 61.1%
Harden 18.3% 61.7%
Westbrook 19.6% 53.9%
LBJ 37.2% 60.2%
Kyrie 31.2% 58%
Curry 43.9% 63%
KD 54.6% 65.8%
Kawhi 47.3% 62.5%

honorable mention:
Klay 85.5% 58%

Paul, Harden, Westbrook have to consistently create their own shots. The first two still maintain above 60% TS. Curry and KD get way more assisted shots, while having slightly higher TS%.

I am just pointing out people should not only look at the shooting efficiency without taking a deeper look where those shot come from. Of course, you can say 'oh they are more valuable because they contribute to a better offense which generates more assisted shots' - then we are back to the legendary never ending debate again - he makes the team better VS he looks better because of the team.

They have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball players. Why should that be held against guys like Curry, 'Bron and Kawhi, who are just as useful off the ball as they are on?

Where did I say it's a knock against Curry, Bron, and Kawhi? I am just listing some facts, a different angle to look at things.

And, Paul Harden Westbrook, they are largely useless off-ball players?

If you isolated the OKC vs Cavs game and didn't know any team records or anything about the season, you'd have thought OKC was the worst offensive team in the NBA, and certainly a lottery team. That the team is 14 wins away from a winning record is mind blowing to me. And a case for RW for MVP.

You should just rename the thread to "2016-17 Harden Discussion Thread Pt 2"

ken6199 wrote:

PeptoKlepto wrote:

ken6199 wrote:Another way to look at the player efficiency: Playe | % of assisted FGs | TS%

Paul 17.7% 61.1%
Harden 18.3% 61.7%
Westbrook 19.6% 53.9%
LBJ 37.2% 60.2%
Kyrie 31.2% 58%
Curry 43.9% 63%
KD 54.6% 65.8%
Kawhi 47.3% 62.5%

honorable mention:
Klay 85.5% 58%

Paul, Harden, Westbrook have to consistently create their own shots. The first two still maintain above 60% TS. Curry and KD get way more assisted shots, while having slightly higher TS%.

I am just pointing out people should not only look at the shooting efficiency without taking a deeper look where those shot come from. Of course, you can say 'oh they are more valuable because they contribute to a better offense which generates more assisted shots' - then we are back to the legendary never ending debate again - he makes the team better VS he looks better because of the team.

They have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball players. Why should that be held against guys like Curry, 'Bron and Kawhi, who are just as useful off the ball as they are on?

Where did I say it's a knock against Curry, Bron, and Kawhi? I am just listing some facts, a different angle to look at things.

And, Paul Harden Westbrook, they are largely useless off-ball players?

Well, are you trying to portray the fact that less % of their FGs are assisted means that they're doing more or having a more difficult time?

And yes, compared to a guy like Curry, who's just as good off-the-ball as he is on, they're largely useless. It's the reason why Curry is the single most impactful offensive player today - he's a monster shooter/scorer both on/off the ball and that allows for ultimate ball movement and versatility on offense.

PeptoKlepto wrote:

ken6199 wrote:

PeptoKlepto wrote:
They have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball players. Why should that be held against guys like Curry, 'Bron and Kawhi, who are just as useful off the ball as they are on?

Where did I say it's a knock against Curry, Bron, and Kawhi? I am just listing some facts, a different angle to look at things.

And, Paul Harden Westbrook, they are largely useless off-ball players?

Well, are you trying to portray the fact that less % of their FGs are assisted means that they're doing more or having a more difficult time?

And yes, compared to a guy like Curry, who's just as good off-the-ball as he is on, they're largely useless. It's the reason why Curry is the single most impactful offensive player today - he's a monster shooter/scorer both on/off the ball and that allows for ultimate ball movement and versatility on offense.

To be fair, you can say they have to create more shots because their offense is more stagnant, or they don't know how to move off-ball, or ball is in their hands more. Those are all honest, acceptable counter opinions which I am happy to discuss further along with. But you didn't.

Something I noticed from your posting record in the MVP discussion thread:
- You put in effort of making every single of your post a Curry promotion.
- You put words in posters mouth then when you got called out, you backpedaled with 'nah I am not talking about you I am talking about xxx fans in general' but you were actually talking about that particular poster
- You launched your false statement of 'CP Harden Westbrook have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball', and when you got called out for that, instead of owning up to it and admitting it's wrong, you side tracked to 'yeah compared to Curry they are largely useless in off-ball'.

I am not even remotely interested in listing any further facts/stats with you because I suspect it would be a waste of my time. Hope you enjoy another historical season from you team, and please don't quote me anymore.

And Westbrook again jumps to 4th in RPM. Small sample but still improves. Still 2nd in ORPM.

ken6199 wrote:To be fair, you can say they have to create more shots because their offense is more stagnant, or they don't know how to move off-ball, or ball is in their hands more. Those are all honest, acceptable counter opinions which I am happy to discuss further along with. But you didn't.

I just did. West/Harden/Paul don't do much of anything off the ball. If you disagree with that, fine, but please do so by stating how they contribute in that aspect.

Also - I'm still unsure what point you were trying to make by emphasizing that less of their FGs are assisted compared to Curry/Durant (you even bolded the comparison). How does that help their case for MVP is what I'm wondering.

- You launched your false statement of 'CP Harden Westbrook have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball', and when you got called out for that, instead of owning up to it and admitting it's wrong, you side tracked to 'yeah compared to Curry they are largely useless in off-ball'.

I didn't admit I'm wrong because I'm not. They ARE largely useless off the ball, especially compared to a guy like Curry who's both one of the best on the ball & off the ball guards in the league. That's huge when it comes to ball-movement and set versatility (like being able to play w/ guys like Iggy and Liv, who are maxed out when are handling the ball).

I am not even remotely interested in listing any further facts/stats with you because I suspect it would be a waste of my time. Hope you enjoy another historical season from you team, and please don't quote me anymore.

Not sure why you're being so rude, but you're more than welcome to ignore my posts.

It's interesting how Paul and Harden have such similar stats in terms of TS% and assisted %, but their games couldn't be more different.

ken6199 wrote:To be fair, you can say they have to create more shots because their offense is more stagnant, or they don't know how to move off-ball, or ball is in their hands more. Those are all honest, acceptable counter opinions which I am happy to discuss further along with. But you didn't.

Something I noticed from your posting record in the MVP discussion thread:
- You put in effort of making every single of your post a Curry promotion.
- You put words in posters mouth then when you got called out, you backpedaled with 'nah I am not talking about you I am talking about xxx fans in general' but you were actually talking about that particular poster
- You launched your false statement of 'CP Harden Westbrook have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball', and when you got called out for that, instead of owning up to it and admitting it's wrong, you side tracked to 'yeah compared to Curry they are largely useless in off-ball'.

I am not even remotely interested in listing any further facts/stats with you because I suspect it would be a waste of my time. Hope you enjoy another historical season from you team, and please don't quote me anymore.

You can write up the same thing about bondom34, since every post he has in the previous thread (or anywhere else) is quoting/cherry picking the same 3-4 stats while almost exclusively propping up Westbrook. Odd that you would single that guy out even though I disagree with what he posts most of the times.

Just saying.

Starboy wrote:It's interesting how Paul and Harden have such similar stats in terms of TS% and assisted %, but their games couldn't be more different.

ken6199 wrote:To be fair, you can say they have to create more shots because their offense is more stagnant, or they don't know how to move off-ball, or ball is in their hands more. Those are all honest, acceptable counter opinions which I am happy to discuss further along with. But you didn't.

Something I noticed from your posting record in the MVP discussion thread:
- You put in effort of making every single of your post a Curry promotion.
- You put words in posters mouth then when you got called out, you backpedaled with 'nah I am not talking about you I am talking about xxx fans in general' but you were actually talking about that particular poster
- You launched your false statement of 'CP Harden Westbrook have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball', and when you got called out for that, instead of owning up to it and admitting it's wrong, you side tracked to 'yeah compared to Curry they are largely useless in off-ball'.

I am not even remotely interested in listing any further facts/stats with you because I suspect it would be a waste of my time. Hope you enjoy another historical season from you team, and please don't quote me anymore.

You can write up the same thing about bondom34, since every post he has in the previous thread (or anywhere else) is quoting/cherry picking the same 3-4 stats while almost exclusively propping up Westbrook. Odd that you would single that guy out even though I disagree with what he posts most of the times.

Just saying.

bondom34 emphasized on on/off net RPM stuff which I am not a big study guy in that area, so I wouldn't comment on things I don't have a full hang on.

As to PeptoKlepto, we did have some healthy discussions in the pt 1 thread, I have to say. I think the 'Paul Harden Westbrook largely useless in off-ball' that part got me and especially he had to repeatedly resort it to 'compare to Curry yes they are largely useless off-ball', I think there is some series homerism and bias there.

Probably for that reason my last paragraph went unnecessary. Yes it's rude, and my bad, PeptoKlepto. Our difference remains the same though.

Starboy wrote:It's interesting how Paul and Harden have such similar stats in terms of TS% and assisted %, but their games couldn't be more different.

ken6199 wrote:To be fair, you can say they have to create more shots because their offense is more stagnant, or they don't know how to move off-ball, or ball is in their hands more. Those are all honest, acceptable counter opinions which I am happy to discuss further along with. But you didn't.

Something I noticed from your posting record in the MVP discussion thread:
- You put in effort of making every single of your post a Curry promotion.
- You put words in posters mouth then when you got called out, you backpedaled with 'nah I am not talking about you I am talking about xxx fans in general' but you were actually talking about that particular poster
- You launched your false statement of 'CP Harden Westbrook have to create their own shots because they are largely useless off-ball', and when you got called out for that, instead of owning up to it and admitting it's wrong, you side tracked to 'yeah compared to Curry they are largely useless in off-ball'.

I am not even remotely interested in listing any further facts/stats with you because I suspect it would be a waste of my time. Hope you enjoy another historical season from you team, and please don't quote me anymore.

You can write up the same thing about bondom34, since every post he has in the previous thread (or anywhere else) is quoting/cherry picking the same 3-4 stats while almost exclusively propping up Westbrook. Odd that you would single that guy out even though I disagree with what he posts most of the times.

Just saying.

Maybe because every post everyone itt makes other than a select few (KChile, Ken, TMU, a few other Houston guys) have been trashing Westbrook to prop up whoever.

Its Harden's to lose now. I'd take Russ, but understand Harden will win. Curry and KD have no argument. Lebron and maybe Kawhi do.

Month by Month.

Westbrook's assist numbers have dropped from about 11 to 10 and now to 9 in January.
Shooting % has gone down from 44% to 39% in January.

With Kanter out, it's gonna be interesting how he performs and how OKC's record looks. Harden has a pretty significant lead at this point. I'm actually more interested if they give COY to D Antoni over Greg Popovich. I see that as a closer race.

OKC just is finishing the hardest month by far of the schedule. We all knew it would be rough and many thought they might only win a couple games. They'll likely finish w/ 7 wins, Kanter's loss will be the test. I still think Harden wins MVP, but still take Russ for who's played better. Harden dropped nearly as far in shooting in January and Russ also increased his assists while taking to this point a pretty decent lead in RPM.