RealGM

With the help of Twitter and crowd-sourcing we spent 10 days searching for the NBA’s 100 MVP votes in the hope of introducing the world to James Harden, 2017 MVP winner.

Like a mad scientist who began their research with the best intentions, we’re dismayed by our ultimate discovery: Russell Westbrook will win the 2017 NBA MVP award.

Our crowd-sourcing and canvassing has found 62 of the NBA’s 100 first place votes for 2017 MVP. There was no announced list, so we identified the votes and that a voter had a ballot using Twitter, interviews, podcasts, articles and TV broadcasts.

And Westbrook will edge Harden.

And right now we estimate the MVP race, after 62 first place votes, to be at:

Russell Westbrook: 522

James Harden: 456

View our comprehensive spreadsheet of votes and our methodology here

A first-place vote speaks the loudest by carrying a three point margin with it. First is worth 10, second 7, third 5, fourth 3 and fifth 1.

Through a hard count of the NBA MVP votes the first place tally of votes has Westbrook in the lead:

Westbrook: 39 first place votes

Harden: 18 first place votes

Leonard: 3 first place votes

James: 2 first place votes

All that really matters is first, second and third. As we're yet to see Harden or Westbrook placed lower than third in the 23 ballots we have with clear votes 1 - 3.

While the 66-point deficit isn't too sizable numerically, it is in the context of the race. There's only 2,600 points for all five places over all 100 ballots. The most points a single player could receive is 1,000, or all 100 of the first place votes (Westbrook has appeared at third four times to Harden’s one).

The deficit Harden is facing is enormous because Harden only gains three points for each first place ballot, which is of course negated by each Westbrook first place ballot. Harden would need 13 yet-unseen ballots to mirror Kevin O’Connor’s, which is Harden-James-Westbrook, for a five point spread, just to draw virtually even in our estimate.

Sure, there’s a ton of factors here, but it’s unlikely Harden can make up this ground.

Before we got to 62 first place votes counted we asked an associate professor of statistics at Wheelock College, Dr. Samuel Cook, to give us the odds.

With 59 total first place votes counted, Dr. Cook projects if the remaining 41 first and second place votes only go to Harden and Westbrook, and each voter puts Harden in 1st with probability 50%, then in 10,000 simulations Westbrook wins 99.9% of the time.

This probability drops minimally to 98.9% if you assume Westbrook will get more 3rd place votes than Harden at the current trend.

At odds like that, even if we've made three or four mistakes in our canvassing, crowd-sourcing or estimations it's not enough to derail this prediction.

No matter the result of the Rockets-Thunder series Russell Westbrook has won the MVP award.

Bill Pidto wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:Harden got screwed twice for opposite reasons.

2015: Harden lost the MVP to Curry because Curry's team was better. Harden had the raw stats advantage and let's not act like the Rockets were nobodies, they were contenders as the #2 seed and division champs. Most of his team was garbage especially due to Dwight missing half the season. Harden carried that squad. No one cared that Curry's team was also stacked with the best bench in the NBA.

2017: Harden loses to Westbrook even though Westbrook's team is worse. We are talking about a sixth seed here, a non-contending team. Westbrook has better raw stats and apparently that's enough. Harden gets penalized for having more help yet nobody penalized Curry in 2015.

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:Harden got screwed twice for opposite reasons.

2015: Harden lost the MVP to Curry because Curry's team was better. Harden had the raw stats advantage and let's not act like the Rockets were nobodies, they were contenders as the #2 seed and division champs. Most of his team was garbage especially due to Dwight missing half the season. Harden carried that squad. No one cared that Curry's team was also stacked with the best bench in the NBA.

2017: Harden loses to Westbrook even though Westbrook's team is worse. We are talking about a sixth seed here, a non-contending team. Westbrook has better raw stats and apparently that's enough. Harden gets penalized for having more help yet nobody penalized Curry in 2015.

Yeah because the rockets are contenders this year right

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:Harden got screwed twice for opposite reasons.

2015: Harden lost the MVP to Curry because Curry's team was better. Harden had the raw stats advantage and let's not act like the Rockets were nobodies, they were contenders as the #2 seed and division champs. Most of his team was garbage especially due to Dwight missing half the season. Harden carried that squad. No one cared that Curry's team was also stacked with the best bench in the NBA.

2017: Harden loses to Westbrook even though Westbrook's team is worse. We are talking about a sixth seed here, a non-contending team. Westbrook has better raw stats and apparently that's enough. Harden gets penalized for having more help yet nobody penalized Curry in 2015.

Yeah because the rockets are contenders this year right

Gil wrote:

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:Harden got screwed twice for opposite reasons.

2015: Harden lost the MVP to Curry because Curry's team was better. Harden had the raw stats advantage and let's not act like the Rockets were nobodies, they were contenders as the #2 seed and division champs. Most of his team was garbage especially due to Dwight missing half the season. Harden carried that squad. No one cared that Curry's team was also stacked with the best bench in the NBA.

2017: Harden loses to Westbrook even though Westbrook's team is worse. We are talking about a sixth seed here, a non-contending team. Westbrook has better raw stats and apparently that's enough. Harden gets penalized for having more help yet nobody penalized Curry in 2015.

Yeah because the rockets are contenders this year right

Says the Raptors fan.

Shock Defeat wrote:

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:Harden got screwed twice for opposite reasons.

2015: Harden lost the MVP to Curry because Curry's team was better. Harden had the raw stats advantage and let's not act like the Rockets were nobodies, they were contenders as the #2 seed and division champs. Most of his team was garbage especially due to Dwight missing half the season. Harden carried that squad. No one cared that Curry's team was also stacked with the best bench in the NBA.

2017: Harden loses to Westbrook even though Westbrook's team is worse. We are talking about a sixth seed here, a non-contending team. Westbrook has better raw stats and apparently that's enough. Harden gets penalized for having more help yet nobody penalized Curry in 2015.

Yeah because the rockets are contenders this year right

3rd best record in the NBA...

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:

RaptorRed wrote:
Yeah because the rockets are contenders this year right

3rd best record in the NBA...

So they have a shot at the title ? You really believe that ?

Shock Defeat wrote:

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:3rd best record in the NBA...

So they have a shot at the title ? You really believe that ?

How about I phrase it this way, the Rockets are an elite team with an elite record. To me any team that is elite is a contender. The Thunder are a marginal subpar team.

RaptorRed wrote:

Shock Defeat wrote:

RaptorRed wrote:
So they have a shot at the title ? You really believe that ?

How about I phrase it this way, the Rockets are an elite team with an elite record. To me any team that is elite is a contender. The Thunder are a marginal subpar team.

You're just phrasing how you want to phrase it to improve your point for Harden MVP. A contender is a team that has a realistic chance at winning the title , in the NBA a random team cannot win the title , it's impossible in a 7 game series the better team always wins unless a freak injury happens. Now , do the rockets have any sort of chance of winning the title ? the answer is no, even if they somehow beat the spurs , they still have to beat the warriors and cavs. This is impossible. They are not a contender.