RealGM

Yes, yet another post about the NBA lottery and the rigging conspiracy theory that seems to forever ride shotgun with it. After this one I'm done, I promise.....until next year.

I tried last week with a topic, to get those that believe it's all rigged or half rigged or occasionally rigged to explain how the NBA pulls off this mischief...the possible nuts & bolts of the operation. The thread (of course) quickly devolved into reasons why the NBA would want to fix the numbers, not the how. Repeated ramblings about Ewing/Knicks 30+ years ago, the Cavs improbable string of #1s, Anthony Davis, Derrick Rose & Chicago, how the league couldn't possibly allow random chance to assign draft positions because of the maaaaassive moneys attached to getting high draft picks in right markets (phhhtt). How obviously rigged this '17 lottery was, especially with the Lakers keeping their pick given they had less than a 50/50 chance at staying in the top 3...and so on.

The best internal workings theory I read of how the NBA actually does it, was that it's some sort of magic show...some type of slight of hand with the ping pong balls in order to get the young talent where they can produce the highest profits for the league. Talk of weighted balls? Heated balls? Some vague idea about variable manipulation of the lottery machine during the drawing that could somehow specify certain numbers to come up when needed? No strong, focused how-they-do-it opinions...rather they just do, because.

In the end, it is just about the numbers, so here are some of the actual numbers on display. I've focused mainly on the Laker-Suns angle, because that's what I hear most often and loudest is that the NBA made sure LA kept their pick due to Magic Johnson love and/or Lonzo Ball and/or Lakers winning is needed for the league's success....blah, blah.

So you can go through the number drawings round by round to help you decide what's a logical reason why the Lakers kept their pick...or it might help you explain how the NBA rigged it for a particular outcome...which exact balls/numbers were ****ed with, when were they deployed or suppressed for the needed bottom line results??? (Adam Silver rubs his hands together in evil glee). Then! Tell me what you believe the NBA did for the Lakers, by the numbers.

...but! Probably not. This'll likely produce more ranting about past "curious" results. Talk of mathematical "improbabilities" from people that don't seem to know a lick about how chance actually works. Money, money, money. The "backfire" effect will make the believers of the conspiracy, believe it with even more conviction.

Critical thinking? Occam's Razor? Logic? Well that's the beauty of conspiracies and why they're exploding - they don't need to be logical.


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Sixers were certainly poised to push out LA also. Philly's numbers didn't come up, but you know what happened. Their numbers...


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for contextual listening pleasure

Mate, you are obsessed, lol

why not analyse the 5th draw for good measure?

Is it just me or does the way they do it seem unnecessary. All those numbers? Just put their names in a hat and pull them out lol

MotownMadness wrote:Is it just me or does the way they do it seem unnecessary. All those numbers? Just put their names in a hat and pull them out lol

you mean like in 1985?

the sh*tstorm that lottery caused is what led the NBA to have a weighted lottery in the first place

time to read up on the history of the NBA draft lottery my friend

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:Is it just me or does the way they do it seem unnecessary. All those numbers? Just put their names in a hat and pull them out lol

you mean like in 1985?

the sh*tstorm that lottery caused is what led the NBA to have a lottery in the first place

No, keep the odds.

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:Is it just me or does the way they do it seem unnecessary. All those numbers? Just put their names in a hat and pull them out lol

you mean like in 1985?

the sh*tstorm that lottery caused is what led the NBA to have a lottery in the first place

No, keep the odds.

how are you going to have a lottery drawing of 1000 envelopes?

or 1000 anything for that matter?

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:
you mean like in 1985?

the sh*tstorm that lottery caused is what led the NBA to have a lottery in the first place

No, keep the odds.

how are you going to have a lottery drawing of 1000 envelopes?

or 1000 anything for that matter?

I always thought it was literally everyone's picture on some ping pong balls. With everyone getting a certain amount of them and they draw them out bingo style.

MotownMadness wrote:Is it just me or does the way they do it seem unnecessary. All those numbers? Just put their names in a hat and pull them out lol

amen. no tanking for anyone. equal odds for all non playoff teams. everyone constructs their team to win.

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote: No, keep the odds.

how are you going to have a lottery drawing of 1000 envelopes?

or 1000 anything for that matter?

I always thought it was literally everyone's picture broke on some ping pong balls. With everyone getting a certain amount of them and they draw them out bingo style.

like what? first 3 teams to (#arbitrary number) ping pong balls calls bingo?

LBJKB24MJ23 wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:Is it just me or does the way they do it seem unnecessary. All those numbers? Just put their names in a hat and pull them out lol

amen. no tanking for anyone. equal odds for all non playoff teams. everyone constructs their team to win.

That's what I would actually prefer. It would make the league so much better.

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:
how are you going to have a lottery drawing of 1000 envelopes?

or 1000 anything for that matter?

I always thought it was literally everyone's picture broke on some ping pong balls. With everyone getting a certain amount of them and they draw them out bingo style.

like what? first 3 teams to (#arbitrary number) ping pong balls calls bingo?

Why make it confusing? You start with the first ping pong ball coming out and say "with the #1 pick whoever selects". Then you move right on to pick two.

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote: I always thought it was literally everyone's picture broke on some ping pong balls. With everyone getting a certain amount of them and they draw them out bingo style.

like what? first 3 teams to (#arbitrary number) ping pong balls calls bingo?

Why make it confusing? You start with the first ping pong ball coming out and say "with the #1 pick whoever selects". Then you move right on to pick two.

so this goes back to my original question of how do you manage to have a giant lottery mixing of 1000 ping pong balls?

Holy Jesus I wish I had that much time on my hands

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:
like what? first 3 teams to (#arbitrary number) ping pong balls calls bingo?

Why make it confusing? You start with the first ping pong ball coming out and say "with the #1 pick whoever selects". Then you move right on to pick two.

so this goes back to my original question of how do you manage to have a giant lottery mixing of 1000 ping pong balls?

Watch on YouTube

Im sure in 2017 we could put our brains together and make a big enough bingo style machine to get it done. Cause realistically teams with 2% or .8% chances should not be winning as much as they do.

Seriously go paint 2 pennies out of 100 a different color and dump them in a jug or something and then let me know how long it takes before you draw one of those two. Your going to be ther a long time but these guys literally beat those odds on just about every try.

If it's not rigged I think it's definitely flawed as those are just low odds to beat that often.

- The accounting firm, Ernst & Young, that audits the lottery is one of the largest professional services firms in the world, with clients that absolutely dwarf the NBA in revenue, such as Walmart, Amazon, Google, Facebook, BP, Lockheed Martin, etc. A conspiracy would either have to slip past them, or require that they were willing to risk tarnishing their global reputation for such a tiny customer.

- The Smart Play company, who manufactures the lotto machine and weighs and measures the balls, has other very significant clients, such as state lotteries. A conspiracy would either have to slip past them, or require that that were willing to risk tarnishing their national reputation for one customer.

- The actual lotto drawing itself, which can be watched for yourself here, is conducted in the presence of a dozen members of the media, and representatives of 14 teams. A conspiracy would either have to slip past all of them, or require that they were all on board.



Anyway, I always link to this Matt Moore article whenever it comes up. He makes the case better than I can.

Matt Moore wrote:Let's say for a minute that the NBA decided this was a good idea. How would they go about it? Well, for starters, they wouldn't just do it. They would commission an internal report outlining the pros and cons of perpetrating a massive conspiracy on the public while also violating several tenets of fair practice in its relationships with the owners of the other 29 teams*. Now, they would need for that report to indicate that the benefit of providing a first-round draft pick that could just as easily turn out to be a bust as a Hall of Famer outweighs the potential for public humiliation and rejection of their product, lawsuits from their owners and possibly the violation of federal law.

*This article was written when the NBA owned New Orleans.

SMTBSI wrote:- The accounting firm, Ernst & Young, that audits the lottery is one of the largest professional services firms in the world, with clients that absolutely dwarf the NBA in revenue, such as Walmart, Amazon, Google, Facebook, BP, Lockheed Martin, etc. A conspiracy would either have to slip past them, or require that they were willing to risk tarnishing their global reputation for such a tiny customer.

- The Smart Play company, who manufactures the lotto machine and weighs and measures the balls, has other very significant clients, such as state lotteries. A conspiracy would either have to slip past them, or require that that were willing to risk tarnishing their national reputation for one customer.

- The lotto itself, which can be watched for yourself here, is conducted in the presence of a dozen members of the media, and representatives of 14 teams. A conspiracy would either have to slip past all of them, or require that they were all on board.



Anyway, I always link to this Matt Moore article whenever it comes up. He makes the case better than I can.

Matt Moore wrote:Let's say for a minute that the NBA decided this was a good idea. How would they go about it? Well, for starters, they wouldn't just do it. They would commission an internal report outlining the pros and cons of perpetrating a massive conspiracy on the public while also violating several tenets of fair practice in its relationships with the owners of the other 29 teams*. Now, they would need for that report to indicate that the benefit of providing a first-round draft pick that could just as easily turn out to be a bust as a Hall of Famer outweighs the potential for public humiliation and rejection of their product, lawsuits from their owners and possibly the violation of federal law.

*This article was written when the NBA owned New Orleans.

That just looks like a very unnecessary confusing way to do it that somehow seems to beat very low odds a bit too much. IDK that it's rigged but it does feel flawed to me to be able to beat the odds it does.

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote: Why make it confusing? You start with the first ping pong ball coming out and say "with the #1 pick whoever selects". Then you move right on to pick two.

so this goes back to my original question of how do you manage to have a giant lottery mixing of 1000 ping pong balls?

Watch on YouTube

Im sure in 2017 we could put our brains together and make a big enough bingo style machine to get it done. Cause realistically teams with 2% or .8% chances should not be winning as much as they do.

Seriously go paint 2 pennies out of 100 a different color and dump them in a jug or something and then let me know how long it takes before you draw one of those two. Your going to be ther a long time but these guys literally beat those odds on just about every try.

If it's not rigged I think it's definitely flawed as those are just low odds to beat that often.

or we can use 14 ping pong balls with (14!)/(10!)(4!) individual combinations and not have to build a transparent, transportable pizza oven wind tunnel machine

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:
so this goes back to my original question of how do you manage to have a giant lottery mixing of 1000 ping pong balls?

Watch on YouTube

Im sure in 2017 we could put our brains together and make a big enough bingo style machine to get it done. Cause realistically teams with 2% or .8% chances should not be winning as much as they do.

Seriously go paint 2 pennies out of 100 a different color and dump them in a jug or something and then let me know how long it takes before you draw one of those two. Your going to be ther a long time but these guys literally beat those odds on just about every try.

If it's not rigged I think it's definitely flawed as those are just low odds to beat that often.

or we can use 14 ping pong balls with (14!)(10!)/(4!) individual combinations and not have to build a transparent, transportable pizza oven wind tunnel machine

Dude it would not even be that bad. And I guarantee whoever has even a 2% chance of ping pong balls around that 8th or 9th spot ain't seeing there ping pong ball popping out as often as it has.

MotownMadness wrote:

Dr Aki wrote:

MotownMadness wrote: No, keep the odds.

how are you going to have a lottery drawing of 1000 envelopes?

or 1000 anything for that matter?

I always thought it was literally everyone's picture on some ping pong balls. With everyone getting a certain amount of them and they draw them out bingo style.

likewise. i thought lottery is drawn through actual 1000 ping pong balls.
and how come its a big deal to build a glass container in which is large enough to put 1000 balls.