What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs?

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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#121 » by JellosJigglin » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:46 pm

If they win 35 in the West then they'd be a lock for a playoff spot in the East. Come on now. That conference is a joke.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#122 » by markjay » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:28 pm

OK, I'm going to summarize why I said 25% chance (as opposed to the 0%-5% chance most people said)..

(1) First, I think the expected value of wins on the team is 35 (that's obviously not enough to make the playoffs but also see my second point below). I expect a +9 boost from their win total last year for several reasons:
a. They are better at every starting position
Ball > Russell
KCP > Young
2017 Ingram > 2016 Ingram
2017 Randall > 2016 Randall
Lopez >> Mozgov
b. They have no incentive to tank, as compared to last year when they had a compelling reason to tank hard
c. Luke has another year under his belt
d. Ball is a player with a great track record in high school and college of increasing his team's victories
e. They have three starters on contract years, thus with a strong incentive to play their best (KCP, Randall, Lopez)

(2) Second, I think there is an unusually high variance with this team. That means while, the expected value is 35 wins, they could actually be much worse, or much better (as compared to a team like the Warriors where the variance is very small). That is because:
a. They have three new starters, so there are a lot of unknowns (Ball, KCP, Lopez)
b. They have one highly unorthodox starting rookie who may move the needle a lot or may not at all (Ball)
c. They have another starter who played fairly poorly much of last season but seemed to show great potential for improvement at the end of the season and in summer league (Ingram)

This variance means that, if nothing clicks, they could regress and get fewer many wins then they got last year (26). But if all things click, they could get up to 40+ wins and sneak into the 8th spot of the playoffs.

That is why I said that I think they have a 25% chance of making the playoffs. Expected value of 35 wins with a long tail in each direction :-). Perhaps 25% was a bit optimistic, maybe 20% is more realistic. But I definitely think it is well above the 1% chance that people are saying here.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#123 » by RingsDontLie » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:45 pm

Tzar wrote:
CarMalone wrote:In before RingsDontLie says 100%.


RingsDontLie is claiming 74 wins and a playoff sweep (BI dunks on KD in the WCF to win a close-out game, of course).

Then, a lopsided W in a death match to save planet Earth in a game against the Monstars. Except, in a sudden twist of fate. The entire team, except for Lonzo, can't make it to the outter space arena because their flight suits got lost. So, Lonzo and Bill Murray suit up and take home the W.


You forgot the part where Ingram grows 10 feet tall over the summer.

40-45 wins is my prediction. Should be enough to slide in a 6-8 seed. Jazz, Clippers, Portland going to come down in the standings
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#124 » by InWestWeTrust » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:00 pm

There's no chance. I got these teams guaranteed making the playoffs.
GSW
HOU
OKC
SA
MIN

These teams fighting for the 6/7/8 spot
DEN
UTAH
LAC
NO
POR

Bottom
SAC
DAL
PHX
LAL

*No particular order.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#125 » by magnumt » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:59 pm

GrandTheftRondo wrote:
magnumt wrote:If they get Rondo, high.

--Mags :beer:

Lol

Seriously?


Yeah, why not?! :-?

You saw first hand what he did for the Bulls in the Playoffs and what happened after he got hurt!

He can REALLY do wonders for mentoring Ball, and getting Ingram and Randle involved on the fastbreak!

It's the exact same idea NY wants to have as well. The Kings too.

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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#126 » by Tzar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:00 pm

markjay wrote:OK, I'm going to summarize why I said 25% chance (as opposed to the 0%-5% chance most people said)..

(1) First, I think the expected value of wins on the team is 35 (that's obviously not enough to make the playoffs but also see my second point below). I expect a +9 boost from their win total last year for several reasons:
a. They are better at every starting position
Ball > Russell
KCP > Young
2017 Ingram > 2016 Ingram
2017 Randall > 2016 Randall
Lopez >> Mozgov
b. They have no incentive to tank, as compared to last year when they had a compelling reason to tank hard
c. Luke has another year under his belt
d. Ball is a player with a great track record in high school and college of increasing his team's victories
e. They have three starters on contract years, thus with a strong incentive to play their best (KCP, Randall, Lopez)

(2) Second, I think there is an unusually high variance with this team. That means while, the expected value is 35 wins, they could actually be much worse, or much better (as compared to a team like the Warriors where the variance is very small). That is because:
a. They have three new starters, so there are a lot of unknowns (Ball, KCP, Lopez)
b. They have one highly unorthodox starting rookie who may move the needle a lot or may not at all (Ball)
c. They have another starter who played fairly poorly much of last season but seemed to show great potential for improvement at the end of the season and in summer league (Ingram)

This variance means that, if nothing clicks, they could regress and get fewer many wins then they got last year (26). But if all things click, they could get up to 40+ wins and sneak into the 8th spot of the playoffs.

That is why I said that I think they have a 25% chance of making the playoffs. Expected value of 35 wins with a long tail in each direction :-). Perhaps 25% was a bit optimistic, maybe 20% is more realistic. But I definitely think it is well above the 1% chance that people are saying here.


Inciteful, well-reasoned post...that's all.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#127 » by Sprewell4Three » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:11 pm

Utah lost Hayward and Clippers lost Chris Paul but yet were supposed to pencil them in the playoffs?
Portland is good but I don't have any faith in 2 little guys in the back court leading your team.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#128 » by RaptorsLife » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:12 pm

0
Let's go Raptors
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#129 » by Pinkyring » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:46 pm

None and to say they're better than dallas is absurd, i want us to suck but we gave away 4 or guys tanking to end the season and dirk missed like 20 early to put us in a hole, add dsj who is probably better than ball and reasonable health and we're in the 43-48 win range, lakers would be lucky to crack 35
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#130 » by anarchy24 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:04 am

Lavar said they'll make the playoffs so 100%?





But seriously though, not very high. All I'm looking for is great improvement of the young guys and hopefully show enough promise to convince a FA or 2 that they are the missing piece.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#131 » by HotrodBeaubois » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:14 am

RingsDontLie wrote:
Tzar wrote:
CarMalone wrote:In before RingsDontLie says 100%.


RingsDontLie is claiming 74 wins and a playoff sweep (BI dunks on KD in the WCF to win a close-out game, of course).

Then, a lopsided W in a death match to save planet Earth in a game against the Monstars. Except, in a sudden twist of fate. The entire team, except for Lonzo, can't make it to the outter space arena because their flight suits got lost. So, Lonzo and Bill Murray suit up and take home the W.


You forgot the part where Ingram grows 10 feet tall over the summer.

40-45 wins is my prediction. Should be enough to slide in a 6-8 seed. Jazz, Clippers, Portland going to come down in the standings



They will be lucky to win half of those games
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#132 » by DEEP3CL » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:16 am

JGOJustin wrote:They legit don't have a chance in hell. I'd be floored if they did.

They aren't even better than last year's team at the moment.
That's delusional, adding Lopez and Ball make them better than having Mozgov and Russell.
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SmartWentCrazy wrote:It's extremely unlikely that they end up in the top 3.They're probably better off trying to win and giving Philly the 8th pick than tanking and giving them the 4th.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#133 » by DEEP3CL » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:19 am

Pinkyring wrote:None and to say they're better than dallas is absurd, i want us to suck but we gave away 4 or guys tanking to end the season and dirk missed like 20 early to put us in a hole, add dsj who is probably better than ball and reasonable health and we're in the 43-48 win range, lakers would be lucky to crack 35
Lol....not even to the bold part, that's absurd. Dallas lottery bound...count on it.
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SmartWentCrazy wrote:It's extremely unlikely that they end up in the top 3.They're probably better off trying to win and giving Philly the 8th pick than tanking and giving them the 4th.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#134 » by DEEP3CL » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:34 am

Don't know why OP broached this question, it's not happening this season.It's no big deal if the Lakers don't make it, the goal is to surge may 10 or 14 wins past last season's total. It's no rush to make the playoffs, don't understand why some fans can't digest that. They're young and you have to take lumps first.

Anyway seeds 7th and 8th will be dog fights, Portland,Denver, LAC and maybe Utah fight it out for those spot but doing so ever so gingerly. They all have to avoid injury, and they all have shaky bench depth. Utah will struggle with scoring at times, the Clippers have to pray that Griffin (who's now the 1st option) can stay healthy for more than 75 games.

Portland still have the same issues as they finished the season with, no scoring once Lillard and McCollum leave the floor and they lack bench depth.

Denver is the wild card here, Mudiay struggled closing the season and now Gallo is gone but they add Milsap but where the hell is the other scoring going to come from ? Jokic can't handle all of it and teams will adjust to his play that seemed to come from nowhere. They also have a jam a the 4 spot.
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SmartWentCrazy wrote:It's extremely unlikely that they end up in the top 3.They're probably better off trying to win and giving Philly the 8th pick than tanking and giving them the 4th.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#135 » by druggas » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:40 am

Whether they make the playoffs or not, they'll be exciting to watch. Adding Ball has juiced up this board as well.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#136 » by Chuck-Cheese » Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:44 am

JellosJigglin wrote:If they win 35 in the West then they'd be a lock for a playoff spot in the East. Come on now. That conference is a joke.
it might be a joke but the lakers still wouldn't make the playoffs.
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#137 » by BigCuz » Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:38 am

magnumt wrote:If they get Rondo, high.

--Mags :beer:

In the WEST? High, indeed ...
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#138 » by BigCuz » Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:39 am

supremacy wrote:Clippers, Blazers, and arguably the Jazz are all better. Lakers are not making the post-season this year. Good team - but the West is stacked.

Arguably? There's really no question about it. I love what LA is doing but they'd have to win at LEAST 45 games. No way
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#139 » by BigCuz » Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:46 am

spicy6 wrote:Not high. As a laker fan the team is built for down the road, but do you honestly think we're better than the warriors, thunder, rockets, spurs, nuggets, wolves, blazers, pelicans, grizzlies, clippers, and maybe even jazz? Best case I see there is a 12th or 11th seed. Problem is and has been for the past 5 seasons defense, and I think we improved but its up to the players now. We'll see I guess but Im hyped for this team cant wait.

They'll be fun to watch without question
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Re: What Are the Odds the Lakers Make the Playoffs? 

Post#140 » by Gus McCrae » Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:13 am

Flash4thewin wrote:Well I guess it all depends if their is an earthquake in the allstar game and all the western starters get injured. Then one can see a way they might make it.


No that would hurt our chances. Losing Ball and Ingram would be devastating

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