Lebron's Decline

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What age will Lebron Significantly Decline

33
12
6%
34
23
11%
35
53
24%
36
54
25%
37
29
13%
38
16
7%
39
3
1%
40
2
1%
Older than 40
10
5%
He won't really decline before retirement and will retire as a top 5 player in the league
16
7%
 
Total votes: 218

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Vee-Rex
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#21 » by Vee-Rex » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:16 am

Hangtime84 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:Lebron offensive best year was this one statistically. His defensive decline has already happened.


His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


2016 was undoubtedly the best defensive playoff run of LeBron's career. It was historical. His Miami Heat years don't even come close to it, box +/- aside (his DBPM at 5.8 was a career high in the playoffs). Personally, I'm not an enormous fan of BPM and DBPM. I feel better looking at RPM but the way cats throw RPM numbers out these days is just ridiculous. They clearly don't understand what they're doing. Still, his DBPM shows a career high in the 2016 playoffs and I don't think it can be completely discounted considering his man-to-man defense numbers were historical.

I suggest you examine LeBron's man-to-man defense via SportVu tracking.

In the 2016 playoffs (21 total games), LeBron had a WHOPPING -14.0 net differential. Guys he faced up against normally shot 45.9%FG, whereas when he was the man guarding them, they shot 31.9%FG. That's right, LeBron held all of his guys in the 2016 playoffs to 31.9%FG. -14.0 net differential.

And the scary part about it is he did it from everywhere on the court. Beyond the arc? -12.6 net differential. They shot 36.7 from 3pt range, but when LeBron guarded them, they shot 24.1% from 3pt range.

Inside the arc? -13.9 net differential. They shot 50.5% normally, but only 36.6% when guarded by LeBron.

Inside the paint? A SCORCHING -23.5 net differential. Opponents that LeBron defended normally shot 61.3% in the paint, but with LeBron actually guarding them, they shot 37.9% IN THE PAINT.

Miami/Evil LeBron was incredible, but none of his defensive performances can measure up to what he did in the 2016 NBA playoffs.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#22 » by homecourtloss » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:32 am

Should have already happened, so who knows. But I would say the 2019 season.
olive_triangurl wrote:What is RPM?
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#23 » by vxmike » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:32 am

laika wrote:1. Kareem---------------66300
2. Karl Malone---------62760
3. Kobe Bryant--------57280
4. Tim Duncan---------56740
5. Jason Kidd----------56200
6. Kevin Garnett------55700
7. Wilt Chamberlain--55420
8. Dirk Nowitzki-------54570
9. Elvin Hayes----------54160
10. John Stockton-----54160

25. LeBron James 50400

Lebron averages about 3500 minutes a year. No player in NBA history has been a top player after 55000 minutes. So that means that Lebron has 1 more year before he has to start doing something that literally NO ONE has ever done. Let's suppose that you think Lebron has the best longetivity in NBA history. Even then I think it would be extremely generous to say that he can do something absolutely unprecedented for more than 3 years.

So the answer to the question is 1-4 years before you start to become ridiculously optimistic.


Lebron is the greatest physical specimen in NBA history. Wilt is the only guy who can come close. He didn't play college ball and has acces to medical resources nobody on that list did until much later in their careers...the minutes thing is overblown.

Anyone talking about his "decline" must not watch very many of his games...he's still a man among boys and NEVER physically overmatched in any way. Sure he picks and chooses his battles defensively over the course of a season like any player giving heavy minutes, but there is no decline.

I voted 39. I think he'll transition to PF after age ~36 and destroy guys there with his quickness. He already has PF strength.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#24 » by Hangtime84 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:45 am

Vee-Rex wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


2016 was undoubtedly the best defensive playoff run of LeBron's career. It was historical. His Miami Heat years don't even come close to it, box +/- aside (his DBPM at 5.8 was a career high in the playoffs). Personally, I'm not an enormous fan of BPM and DBPM. I feel better looking at RPM but the way cats throw RPM numbers out these days is just ridiculous. They clearly don't understand what they're doing. Still, his DBPM shows a career high in the 2016 playoffs and I don't think it can be completely discounted considering his man-to-man defense numbers were historical.

I suggest you examine LeBron's man-to-man defense via SportVu tracking.

In the 2016 playoffs (21 total games), LeBron had a WHOPPING -14.0 net differential. Guys he faced up against normally shot 45.9%FG, whereas when he was the man guarding them, they shot 31.9%FG. That's right, LeBron held all of his guys in the 2016 playoffs to 31.9%FG. -14.0 net differential.

And the scary part about it is he did it from everywhere on the court. Beyond the arc? -12.6 net differential. They shot 36.7 from 3pt range, but when LeBron guarded them, they shot 24.1% from 3pt range.

Inside the arc? -13.9 net differential. They shot 50.5% normally, but only 36.6% when guarded by LeBron.

Inside the paint? A SCORCHING -23.5 net differential. Opponents that LeBron defended normally shot 61.3% in the paint, but with LeBron actually guarding them, they shot 37.9% IN THE PAINT.

Miami/Evil LeBron was incredible, but none of his defensive performances can measure up to what he did in the 2016 NBA playoffs.


I think that speaks more to the defenders Lebron with now. But I think he much more smarter overall as a player. I just don't see him doing the same things as he did in Miami. Maybe cause offensively he carries more for cavs
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#25 » by TheWolfoftheNBA » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:49 am

RCM88x wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:Lebron offensive best year was this one statistically. His defensive decline has already happened.


His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Did you watch LeBron in 2012-2013. He was the best defensively and his best overall year.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#26 » by Patches Perry » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:20 am

Next season I think he comes out and wins MVP. Dominates regular season and playoffs. After that, I think he takes a big dip. So 2018-2019 probably. Players never last as long as we think they will.

That said - I do think he can have several good years as a top 10-15 player as well. That's the transition that needs to be graceful. If he can transition into a secondary superstar, at 34 or so, then he will make an even bigger dent in the history books.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#27 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:41 am

It's all about injuries. Being 39 I can tell you the physical decline is not that crazy, strength stays and straight line speed isn't too affected. You lose bounce and lateral speed, but then you can somewhat balance it with experience.
The real difference maker is that it takes forever to recover from an injury and get back in shape, and these guys are not amateurs who manage their long term health but are always at the edge. If he stays injury free LeBron can be an MVP level offensive player at 40, but he will need to change the way he plays on defense.

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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#28 » by Lakerfan17 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:49 am

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:It's all about injuries. Being 39 I can tell you the physical decline is not that crazy, strength stays and straight line speed isn't too affected. You lose bounce and lateral speed, but then you can somewhat balance it with experience.
The real difference maker is that it takes forever to recover from an injury and get back in shape, and these guys are not amateurs who manage their long term health but are always at the edge. If he stays injury free LeBron can be an MVP level offensive player at 40, but he will need to change the way he plays on defense.

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There hasn't been more than a couple of players(Jordan Malone) who had MVP level offense at 35, let alone 40.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#29 » by DaddyCool19 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:33 am

I think he has 2 MVP'ish years left. Afterwards you could make him your PF and I think he could still put up 22/7/6 without even being the primary ballhandler with the right teammates.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#30 » by Goon » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:55 am

Prince187 wrote:Whatever year the NBA get serious about testing for PED's

The whole NBA will decline when that happens. Not just LeBron.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#31 » by Don Draper » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:08 pm

Prince187 wrote:Whatever year the NBA get serious about testing for PED's

fishing for those and 1s
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#32 » by Dupp » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:13 pm

Hangtime84 wrote:
Vee-Rex wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:
Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


2016 was undoubtedly the best defensive playoff run of LeBron's career. It was historical. His Miami Heat years don't even come close to it, box +/- aside (his DBPM at 5.8 was a career high in the playoffs). Personally, I'm not an enormous fan of BPM and DBPM. I feel better looking at RPM but the way cats throw RPM numbers out these days is just ridiculous. They clearly don't understand what they're doing. Still, his DBPM shows a career high in the 2016 playoffs and I don't think it can be completely discounted considering his man-to-man defense numbers were historical.

I suggest you examine LeBron's man-to-man defense via SportVu tracking.

In the 2016 playoffs (21 total games), LeBron had a WHOPPING -14.0 net differential. Guys he faced up against normally shot 45.9%FG, whereas when he was the man guarding them, they shot 31.9%FG. That's right, LeBron held all of his guys in the 2016 playoffs to 31.9%FG. -14.0 net differential.

And the scary part about it is he did it from everywhere on the court. Beyond the arc? -12.6 net differential. They shot 36.7 from 3pt range, but when LeBron guarded them, they shot 24.1% from 3pt range.

Inside the arc? -13.9 net differential. They shot 50.5% normally, but only 36.6% when guarded by LeBron.

Inside the paint? A SCORCHING -23.5 net differential. Opponents that LeBron defended normally shot 61.3% in the paint, but with LeBron actually guarding them, they shot 37.9% IN THE PAINT.

Miami/Evil LeBron was incredible, but none of his defensive performances can measure up to what he did in the 2016 NBA playoffs.


I think that speaks more to the defenders Lebron with now. But I think he much more smarter overall as a player. I just don't see him doing the same things as he did in Miami. Maybe cause offensively he carries more for cavs[/quote]


Think its just because hes surrounded be incompetent defenders now so its hard to look as good as he did in miami. Although he did in 2016.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#33 » by macNcheese3 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:13 pm

I cant say when he will decline maybe 3 more years could be sooner. But now he definitely needs a supporting cast more then ever.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#34 » by BasketballFan7 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:14 pm

We don't know how Magic would have aged. We know that he came back after a long, long hiatus and came back to still shoot over 60 TS%, have a PER of over 20, and average 18-8-7 per 36 minutes. I wish we did know definitively, because that would be the closest analogue.

If LeBron is content to pile up assists, plant himself in the post, and cut to the basket when off ball... he can play as long as he wants, with or without a jumper.
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Re: RE: Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#35 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:19 pm

Lakerfan17 wrote:There hasn't been more than a couple of players(Jordan Malone) who had MVP level offense at 35, let alone 40.

I'm aware, I'm just saying that LeBron's offensive game I believe can age very well as long as he stays healthy.
He will have the strength and he will transition to more of a PF role in a small ball offence.
Once again, as long as he can stay healthy. Age itself won't slow him down this much, and I think he relies on hops much less than what people think.

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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#36 » by spicy6 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:44 pm

He hasnt and wont decline for another couple of years. People fail to see the warriors needed to add arguably the second best player in the world to a 73 win team with a unanimous mvp to beat lebron and lebron still averaged a triple double. Says a lot of how great this guy is.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#37 » by tidho » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:23 pm

Prince187 wrote:Whatever year the NBA get serious about testing for PED's

Sooooo, never? LeBron is going to play forever!, lol.
Suspect its more HGH that's the issue not PEDs.

Anyway, he's already slowing down.
This is one of the more interesting aspects of his pending free agency. There's an extremely good chance that contract that Lakers fans are so eager to give him will be a bad one. Guy's going to be a $40M per anchor.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#38 » by HeatedEnd » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:30 pm

Since LeBron's game is not necessarily reliant on speed, he will just slowly just become more and more of a great passing post player with a semi-decent outside shot.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#39 » by Golabki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:35 pm

nbafan38 wrote:Lebron has shown very little decline for his age but can't imagine he keeps it up forever. By what age will Lebron significantly decline?

LeBron is one of the most sophisticated dopers of all time. I'm confident that he will have a freakishly long peak.
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Re: Lebron's Decline 

Post#40 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:57 pm

Hangtime84 wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
Hangtime84 wrote:Lebron offensive best year was this one statistically. His defensive decline has already happened.


His defensive peak was probably 2016, most certainly it was the best defensive playoff run of his career. His decline on that end was pretty overstated this season, it was more to do with opponents and roster construction than anything he did worse.


Miami Lebron was flying all over the place defensively and was crazy smart helpside.


Activity doesn't equal efficacy. Cleveland LeBron is a much smarter defender and makes plays through positioning and reading sets. He was more spectacular in Miami but more effective in 2016.

No perimeter player in history has had as much impact defensively as LeBron did in the 2016 Finals. A lot of that is due to the Warriors' specific roster construction; a long guy who's athletic enough to guard Dray and switch onto Steph on the screen is pretty much their kryptonite since they didn't run any other plays.
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