Advanced Stats Knowledge Pooling

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Do You Rely On Advanced Stats?

Yes, too much!
11
7%
Yes, but in context.
116
77%
No, I hate math!
4
3%
No, you geek!
10
7%
Fad much?!
3
2%
What's YOUR PER?! :-D
6
4%
 
Total votes: 150

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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#161 » by Bush4Ever » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:25 pm

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:

Are we talking about scouting now ? I'm sorry but Kwame Brown is a ridiculous example for the eye test. I love how you are mentioning a high school prospect to prove that the eye test is wrong :lol: No one knows how good high school / college prospects will do in the NBA , this has nothing to do with the eye test. The eye test would be watching someone IN the NBA 1 season to the next and being wrong.. which is pretty much impossible unless you are bias .. I would love to hear some examples of how the eye test is wrong for actual NBA players ...


Yes. What do you think (traditional) scouting was, except the eye test applied by experts to incoming (or perhaps on-the-market) players? That's exactly and precisely what it was.

Traditional scouting was pretty much the gold-standard version of the "eye test". Any fan can immediately rattle off draft failures, or even failures involving veterans in things like free agency.

And again, one wonders why billionaires are throwing hundreds of thousands or even >1M dollars on something that is useless and provides no incremental value. I guess literally every single one became stupid overnight.

Or maybe, just maybe...analytics has something to add over and above the eye test. Maybe. Perhaps.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#162 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:42 pm

Bush4Ever wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:

Are we talking about scouting now ? I'm sorry but Kwame Brown is a ridiculous example for the eye test. I love how you are mentioning a high school prospect to prove that the eye test is wrong :lol: No one knows how good high school / college prospects will do in the NBA , this has nothing to do with the eye test. The eye test would be watching someone IN the NBA 1 season to the next and being wrong.. which is pretty much impossible unless you are bias .. I would love to hear some examples of how the eye test is wrong for actual NBA players ...


Yes. What do you think (traditional) scouting was, except the eye test applied by experts to incoming (or perhaps on-the-market) players? That's exactly and precisely what it was.

Traditional scouting was pretty much the gold-standard version of the "eye test". Any fan can immediately rattle off draft failures, or even failures involving veterans in things like free agency.

And again, one wonders why billionaires are throwing hundreds of thousands or even >1M dollars on something that is useless and provides no incremental value. I guess literally every single one became stupid overnight.

Or maybe, just maybe...analytics has something to add over and above the eye test. Maybe. Perhaps.


Ok this is getting ridiculous, you are really reaching here. Obviously it's hard to tell by watching someone in high school and/or college if that player will be good IN the nba against nba players ( which you have never seen him play against) ... can advanced stats tell me who should be picked top 5 ?? What does this have to do with anything anyways !! You keep ignoring my arguments and keep repeating yours which are not even related to the topic.

We are talking about the NBA here ... and how advanced stats people analyze NBA players vs. the eye test people... we're not talking about teenage prospects who no one has any idea how well they will do in the NBA. It's fine to talk about scouting just talk about it in terms of the NBA for example I scout Paul George with the eye test and you use advance stats ... I scout Rudy Gobert with the eye test and you use advanced stats. No one said advanced stats can't be helpful , the eye test is just much more accurate and will provide you insight you can never get from advanced stats.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#163 » by Bush4Ever » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:56 pm

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
Ok this is getting ridiculous, you are really reaching here. Obviously it's hard to tell by watching someone in high school and/or college if that player will be good IN the nba against nba players ( which you have never seen him play against) ... can advanced stats tell me who should be picked top 5 ??


Okay, I'll chase you down on this. I have some time.

You claim the eye test is without bias or flaws. You also (backtrack) into a claim that the eye test can only be realized with players that are already in the NBA.

So, it would logically follow that prior to the analytic age, GMs and decision-makers (having only non-analytic tools at their disposal) never made mistakes involving trading (veteran) players or signing veteran players on the market.

Does this even seem remotely sensible to you?

According to your logic and previous statements, owners have a tool for analysis that is perfect (eye test)...but yet they go out of their way to spend large amounts of money to add a terrible tool (analytics) to their decision-making that doesn't add any incremental value and can only *hurt* the bottom line, since it would only contaminate a tool that is already perfect (eye test).

Yes, that makes sense.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#164 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:38 pm

Bush4Ever wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
Ok this is getting ridiculous, you are really reaching here. Obviously it's hard to tell by watching someone in high school and/or college if that player will be good IN the nba against nba players ( which you have never seen him play against) ... can advanced stats tell me who should be picked top 5 ??


Okay, I'll chase you down on this. I have some time.

You claim the eye test is without bias or flaws. You also (backtrack) into a claim that the eye test can only be realized with players that are already in the NBA.

So, it would logically follow that prior to the analytic age, GMs and decision-makers (having only non-analytic tools at their disposal) never made mistakes involving trading (veteran) players or signing veteran players on the market.

Does this even seem remotely sensible to you?

According to your logic and previous statements, owners have a tool for analysis that is perfect (eye test)...but yet they go out of their way to spend large amounts of money to add a terrible tool (analytics) to their decision-making that doesn't add any incremental value and can only *hurt* the bottom line, since it would only contaminate a tool that is already perfect (eye test).

Yes, that makes sense.


Ok let's restart.

The eye test is not a perfect tool to measure FUTURE performance. No one can predict exactly how a player will age from season to season , mesh with teammates , how much intensity he will bring. These are humans , it's impossible to predict with 100% accuracy how good a player is going to be going forward

However , in the present day , if I watch 20 basketball games and you just look at advanced stats i'm 100% certain I will have a better scouting report on the player. That doesn't mean advanced stats are useless , I never said they were, and you keep trying to imply that. Teams are investing in it because there are some useful advanced stats that can help organizations , the problem is the people that base their player evaluation almost entirely on advanced stats. For example we have people here claiming Rudy Gobert is a top 10 player based on advanced stats what are your thoughts on Rudy as a top 10 player
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Re: RE: Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#165 » by HotelVitale » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:42 pm

Bobalob wrote:
HotelVitale wrote: Just a head's up that no one takes Hollinger very seriously, his 'advanced' stats are super simplistic and he doesn't seem like a particularly brilliant dude. And it's ignorant to think that stats show an implicit bias against athleticism or to think that 'nerds' are pursuing their own agenda by measuring things like efficiency and overall team impact. Those are the obvious ways to measure a player's value, if you can think of a better thing to measure that would be more fair etc, we're all ears.
Please correct me of im wrong but didnt John Hollinger practically invent advanced stats. I know he invented PER. And im pretty sure without PER there probably isnt any RPM.
PER basically just mashes together all of the regular box scores stats (pts/rebs/blocks, etc) and spits out a number base don how much box score stuff you do compared to league average. Doesn't do anything that your angry uncle couldn't do looking at the box score in the morning paper, and it doesn't tell you anything about team, situation, defense, etc.

The point of stats like RPM is to measure players a) based on their overall impact on the court (how much do they help a team perform better or worse?) and b) relative to one another. It has nothing at all to do with PER, and the basic idea is that you're looking for how a player performs himself and not as a result of things beyond his control--e.g. playing with awesome teammates or terrible ones, or playing one night against Klay Thompson or Devin Booker goes 12/14 from 3. It tries to get rid of all that and just see how you would perform in normal or average circumstances. Different versions of it contain different data sets, but the whole pt is to give some context for the numbers people produce.

And its results aren't counterintuitive: stars look like stars, and guy who are obvious franchise cornerstones look like that. With players like Kyrie, it shows that he's good at taking high volume shots at relatively good efficiency but isn't particularly good at other things. One problem is that it can't take into account effort--so it can't really capture how, the playoffs, someone like Kyrie can play a little better defense when he tries harder, and more importantly he can still score when the other team is trying really really hard on defense.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#166 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:19 am

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:A team led by Rudy Gobert is not going anywhere , he's a great defensive player but he's not top 10 , I honestly don't even think its debatable but if you want list your top 10 , we'll see who you decide to exclude to make room for Rudy :lol:

I don't think the Jazz are even making the playoffs this year not sure what you think about them ... they do have 2 advanced stats legends in Rubio and Gobert

This is telling more about your close minded view on who's better and worse and how team has to be built.
You're awfully simplifying with the usual "team led by xyz" as if it was the end of all.
Your coming with your biases because without a proper structure (numbers can give it to you, but not just that) it can be very difficult to compare apples and oranges. You have a guy like Gobert on one side and guys like Isaiah Thomas or Kyrie Irving on the other, they're contributing to team wins in completely different ways, how do you determine who's better?
In my way the better player is the guy that can fit in the highest possible combination of contending teams. According to this definition, a portable defensive anchor that can finish, hit free throws and crash the offensive boards can be a more scarse and valuable resource than a scorer who's a huge negative on defense.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#167 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:A team led by Rudy Gobert is not going anywhere , he's a great defensive player but he's not top 10 , I honestly don't even think its debatable but if you want list your top 10 , we'll see who you decide to exclude to make room for Rudy :lol:

I don't think the Jazz are even making the playoffs this year not sure what you think about them ... they do have 2 advanced stats legends in Rubio and Gobert

This is telling more about your close minded view on who's better and worse and how team has to be built.
You're awfully simplifying with the usual "team led by xyz" as if it was the end of all.
Your coming with your biases because without a proper structure (numbers can give it to you, but not just that) it can be very difficult to compare apples and oranges. You have a guy like Gobert on one side and guys like Isaiah Thomas or Kyrie Irving on the other, they're contributing to team wins in completely different ways, how do you determine who's better?
In my way the better player is the guy that can fit in the highest possible combination of contending teams. According to this definition, a portable defensive anchor that can finish, hit free throws and crash the offensive boards can be a more scarse and valuable resource than a scorer who's a huge negative on defense.

Lol that's fine if he's on the same level as kyrie , kyrie is not top 10.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#168 » by MalonesElbows » Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:23 pm

Bobalob wrote:
Bush4Ever wrote:
Bobalob wrote:
Its a tool in the toolbox. But it doesnt replace just straight up basketball. Not in analysis of the game, and DEFINITELY not in being a fan. Thats where i REALLY have reason to pause. Maybe im the idiot bc the site is called "realgm" :lol: So maybe the demographic IS for people more interested in the business side of things as opposed to people who played/watched/love basketball.

Bc when im at the gym and i PLAY basketball and we talk the game, no one brings up analytics. Like that does not happen. Regular basketball playing people in th real world do not talk RPM :lol: So when i read comments here i get the feeling im talking to someone who is analytics first and basketball 2nd (if at all).


Can you show me a specific example of someone who has literally said you don't need to supplement analytics with watching games? I have literally not seen that at all on this board, and virtually never in analogous situations outside basketball (in my professional life for example). Pretty much any serious analyst understands you almost always have to have some combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis. I think you are building a case against a ghost.

Speaking to your second point, how often do people engage in rigorous analysis about *anything* when they are "around the water cooler" or hanging out at the bar, playing with friends, etc...? How often do people talk about the deepest levels of political philosophy at the bar instead of bullet point sound bites?

I don't understand why you think that speaks to the legitimacy of analytics at all.

As the saying goes...there are levels to this stuff.


Hey maybe its just me.

1 example i'll give, to my raggedy old eyes any team led by Rudy Gobert isnt going anywhere. Just by the good ol eye test and a little bball fan iq. Like thats painfully obvious to me. Defense is worth less than offense, to ME.

But according to advanced stats he's a top 10 player in the game and his defensive impact is equally important to an elite scorer. That to me is clearly BS but hey thats just me.

Another example is that, to me, Ricky Rubio is trash. Garbage. Basura. Analytics (and a lot of people on the board) seem to disagree. To me if you cant shoot it shrinks the court and you're playing 4 on 5. Thats years of bball experince. I dont care what any stat says. So those are 2 examples of analytics being horsesh**...to ME


Except Rubio is an elite mid range and free throw shooter. While his 3 point shot isn't great, it's still 31.5% lifetime. You act like it's 0%, that stuff kinda matters. So saying they are playing 4 on 5 is just ridiculous. Plenty of bookies in Vegas are there to take your raggedy old money if you want to bet against the advanced stat hero Jazz.
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Re: Advanced Stats Knowledge Pooling 

Post#169 » by HardcoreNBAer » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:32 pm

I've had Cavs fans trying to convince me that Tristan Thompson is a better defender than Andre Drummond. Can any analytics gurus here confirm or disprove this notion?
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#170 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:53 am

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
Bush4Ever wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:

Are we talking about scouting now ? I'm sorry but Kwame Brown is a ridiculous example for the eye test. I love how you are mentioning a high school prospect to prove that the eye test is wrong :lol: No one knows how good high school / college prospects will do in the NBA , this has nothing to do with the eye test. The eye test would be watching someone IN the NBA 1 season to the next and being wrong.. which is pretty much impossible unless you are bias .. I would love to hear some examples of how the eye test is wrong for actual NBA players ...


Yes. What do you think (traditional) scouting was, except the eye test applied by experts to incoming (or perhaps on-the-market) players? That's exactly and precisely what it was.

Traditional scouting was pretty much the gold-standard version of the "eye test". Any fan can immediately rattle off draft failures, or even failures involving veterans in things like free agency.

And again, one wonders why billionaires are throwing hundreds of thousands or even >1M dollars on something that is useless and provides no incremental value. I guess literally every single one became stupid overnight.

Or maybe, just maybe...analytics has something to add over and above the eye test. Maybe. Perhaps.


Ok this is getting ridiculous, you are really reaching here. Obviously it's hard to tell by watching someone in high school and/or college if that player will be good IN the nba against nba players ( which you have never seen him play against) ... can advanced stats tell me who should be picked top 5 ?? What does this have to do with anything anyways !! You keep ignoring my arguments and keep repeating yours which are not even related to the topic.

We are talking about the NBA here ... and how advanced stats people analyze NBA players vs. the eye test people... we're not talking about teenage prospects who no one has any idea how well they will do in the NBA. It's fine to talk about scouting just talk about it in terms of the NBA for example I scout Paul George with the eye test and you use advance stats ... I scout Rudy Gobert with the eye test and you use advanced stats. No one said advanced stats can't be helpful , the eye test is just much more accurate and will provide you insight you can never get from advanced stats.


You can't see an process nearly as much data as we can today with sports vue cameras. You can't measure how far a player ran in the game vs walked. You can't calculate the speed the ball comes off a player's fingers. You can't measure how many shots were taking against one player vs another just from watching. If you think advanced stats are JUST PER or the likes then you're missing the other 99.9% of advanced stats we have today.

And with this, how do you quantify how much each player is worth on their next contract by team? How many wins does a player add to a team and what's the value to the team for those wins?
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#171 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:00 am

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:A team led by Rudy Gobert is not going anywhere , he's a great defensive player but he's not top 10 , I honestly don't even think its debatable but if you want list your top 10 , we'll see who you decide to exclude to make room for Rudy :lol:

I don't think the Jazz are even making the playoffs this year not sure what you think about them ... they do have 2 advanced stats legends in Rubio and Gobert

This is telling more about your close minded view on who's better and worse and how team has to be built.
You're awfully simplifying with the usual "team led by xyz" as if it was the end of all.
Your coming with your biases because without a proper structure (numbers can give it to you, but not just that) it can be very difficult to compare apples and oranges. You have a guy like Gobert on one side and guys like Isaiah Thomas or Kyrie Irving on the other, they're contributing to team wins in completely different ways, how do you determine who's better?
In my way the better player is the guy that can fit in the highest possible combination of contending teams. According to this definition, a portable defensive anchor that can finish, hit free throws and crash the offensive boards can be a more scarse and valuable resource than a scorer who's a huge negative on defense.

Lol that's fine if he's on the same level as kyrie , kyrie is not top 10.


You're still rather upset over people saying the eye test shows Gobert is top 10 and you keep trying to claim it's all about advanced stats.
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Re: Advanced Stats Knowledge Pooling 

Post#172 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:54 pm

HardcoreNBAer wrote:I've had Cavs fans trying to convince me that Tristan Thompson is a better defender than Andre Drummond. Can any analytics gurus here confirm or disprove this notion?

Not very advanced, but the fact that the Pistons' defense had been much better with Drummond off the court than on it (allowing a much lower eFG%) is actually a hint that they might be more right than you. Not the same happens with Thompson.

This is not the end of all, but normally good defenders score well in this kind of metric (excluding Leonard last year).
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#173 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:29 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:This is telling more about your close minded view on who's better and worse and how team has to be built.
You're awfully simplifying with the usual "team led by xyz" as if it was the end of all.
Your coming with your biases because without a proper structure (numbers can give it to you, but not just that) it can be very difficult to compare apples and oranges. You have a guy like Gobert on one side and guys like Isaiah Thomas or Kyrie Irving on the other, they're contributing to team wins in completely different ways, how do you determine who's better?
In my way the better player is the guy that can fit in the highest possible combination of contending teams. According to this definition, a portable defensive anchor that can finish, hit free throws and crash the offensive boards can be a more scarse and valuable resource than a scorer who's a huge negative on defense.

Lol that's fine if he's on the same level as kyrie , kyrie is not top 10.


You're still rather upset over people saying the eye test shows Gobert is top 10 and you keep trying to claim it's all about advanced stats.


Who has said that? You're the only one
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#174 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:46 pm

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:Lol that's fine if he's on the same level as kyrie , kyrie is not top 10.


You're still rather upset over people saying the eye test shows Gobert is top 10 and you keep trying to claim it's all about advanced stats.


Who has said that? You're the only one


Ask anyone using advanced stats what their eyes tell them. The guy has game changing defensive skills and is a value add offensive player.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#175 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:54 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
You're still rather upset over people saying the eye test shows Gobert is top 10 and you keep trying to claim it's all about advanced stats.


Who has said that? You're the only one


Ask anyone using advanced stats what their eyes tell them. The guy has game changing defensive skills and is a value add offensive player.


I don't really care about this anymore, if you think he's a top 10 player then believe that. I hope you're a Jazz fan so you can enjoy all the success he will bring you
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#176 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:58 pm

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
Who has said that? You're the only one


Ask anyone using advanced stats what their eyes tell them. The guy has game changing defensive skills and is a value add offensive player.


I don't really care about this anymore, if you think he's a top 10 player then believe that. I hope you're a Jazz fan so you can enjoy all the success he will bring you


There are jazz fans? lol. Most certainly not, though i expect i will watch nore games with rubio and him playing together. should be a fun team.
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#177 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:01 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Ask anyone using advanced stats what their eyes tell them. The guy has game changing defensive skills and is a value add offensive player.


I don't really care about this anymore, if you think he's a top 10 player then believe that. I hope you're a Jazz fan so you can enjoy all the success he will bring you


There are jazz fans? lol. Most certainly not, though i expect i will watch nore games with rubio and him playing together. should be a fun team.

Haha yes Rubio and Gobert are advanced stats legends , should be a successful season I'm sure :roll:
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#178 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:17 pm

JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
I don't really care about this anymore, if you think he's a top 10 player then believe that. I hope you're a Jazz fan so you can enjoy all the success he will bring you


There are jazz fans? lol. Most certainly not, though i expect i will watch nore games with rubio and him playing together. should be a fun team.

Haha yes Rubio and Gobert are advanced stats legends , should be a successful season I'm sure :roll:


Yeah, nobody likes seeing lobs from a great passer to a great finisher....
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Re: Analytics.... yes or no? Where do you stand 

Post#179 » by JunkYardDog6ix » Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:20 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
JunkYardDog6ix wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
You're still rather upset over people saying the eye test shows Gobert is top 10 and you keep trying to claim it's all about advanced stats.


Who has said that? You're the only one


Ask anyone using advanced stats what their eyes tell them. The guy has game changing defensive skills and is a value add offensive player.


Hey look someone already asked :

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1608038

I scrolled through , I think 1 guy said Gobert and he was a Jazz fan :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Summer Boredom Advanced Stats Knowledge Pooling Thread 

Post#180 » by TheDavinciCHODE » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:11 am

Prez wrote:One of my favorite cherry picking tools is bbref's season finder. Just another tool to help put into perspective how "special" a player might be age for age, season for season, etc. based on arbitrary cutoffs. Like...how many players have put up Porzingis' PTS/REB/BLK from this past season in their age 21 season or younger? Hint: it's not many

Spoiler:
and KP hit over 100 3's too :lol:


SICK! Thanks for showing me that.

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