2018 MVP Prediction Discussion

[HurricaneKid]

Please explain how a 22 year old is in the middle of his prime.

And nearly everyone develops their shot after they stop growing.

He is a top 10 rim protector that runs the point. A 7'er that can Euro step from 35 feet. He blocked a shot in the playoffs with his ELBOW. Now he needs to be able to shoot 3s too? You sure don't ask for much do you? He already had a season no one in the history of basketball has ever had while starting the season as a 21 year old.

But I guess if you are comparing him to the two best players in basketball he isn't too bad.

I said middle of his prime because it's suspected to happen somewhere around 25-27 years old or season 7-9 which would be the middle of his prime.

Everyone develops their shot after they stop growing? What the hell? Are you joking? What is he, a 12 year old? H'e's about to turn 23.

Top 10 rim protector that can play point forward. 7'er that can euro step from 35 feet. Can block shots with ease. If he wants to be MVP, he had better learn how to shoot because there's another 7'er that can do all of those things while actually being a generational shooter.

As for this whole, basketball season that noone has ever had. The stats were absurdly cherry-picked 22/8/5/1.5/1.5? Really? How do you come up with those parameters?

And I compared him with the two best players in basketball because he has to be better than them to win MVP. And he's a LONG way away from that because he's worse at 22 than they were at 21 and they're now twice the players that they were early in their careers.

He was still growing leading up to last offseason.

Prime is 26-30 or 4-8 years away for Giannis. He doesnt turn 23 until the middle of Dec so your insistence on calling him 23 is just weird, and repeatedly defending your position that he IS in his prime is just intellectually lazy. No 22 year old has been at their peak without a horrible injury.

If you think Zinger can run the floor or run an offense like Giannis you should probably try watching him play some time. Calling him a point center is entirely reasonable. Milwaukees best lineups include him at the 5 though they are loathe to play him there.

Are the stats cherry picked? Sure. Its still damn impressive. No one had ever been in the top 20 in the league in Pts/Rebs/Asst/Stl/Bl before his season last year and he legitimately does it all for the Bucks. At 22 his trajectory is still pointing towards the stars.

No 22 year old is EVER a finished product with their shot. Not even great shooters. It takes 100s of thousands of reps to become a great shooter and it has historically taken players time to develop that skill. And when he does, because no one works like Giannis, he will be completely unguardable with ball skills never seen in a player his size.

Keep doubting him. He will keep making posts like these look foolish over the coming years. Before last year people were still calling him Anthony Randolph. Look how dumb those posts looked after his 2nd team All NBA nod.

[Impuniti]

How on earth do people think Giannis, Blake and Butler (lmao) will be MVPs? You need to finish top 3 in the league with your team, unless you're a stat padder who gets a trip double and has a MVP narrative written before the season even begins. Who actually believes those three have a chance in hell of leading their team to have the 3rd best record in the league?

Blake has a similar narrative with CP3 leaving the team. If he gets 4th seed I"d say he's got a shot. The narrative will be "clippers lose cp3 but with griffin alone and yet they moved up 1 seed in the standings" Now I don't think it's likely but thats why he's a dark horse candidate. Not likely but if it happens its not out of left field either.

Clippers have no chance in hell of finishing 4th overall in the league. Warriors, Celtics, Spurs and Rockets are 100% going to finish above them. In the West alone, OKC and at least 1/2 other teams will likely finish above. Keep in mind other than Chuckbrook, the last time someone won MVP without his team finishing in the top 3 was not in this century.

[Jadoogar]

I think it will be Durant unfortunately. He was incredible last season but he had two factors workign against him, Injuries and stink with fans/media for his FA move. It's very reminiscent of LBJ's first season in Miami. There was no way he was going to win MVP since everyone was mad at him and wanted to see them fail. In his second season, everyone accepted his move and he won MVP (because eh's the best player in the world). I think the same will happen for Durant.

[Deivork]

My dark horse is Anthony Davis. I think he's going to have a very good year with Cousins next to him. 30 / 12 / 4 / 2 / 1 on excellent efficiency and the Pel's win 55 games.

no one ever put up those numbers.

SHaq?

[Rastas]

My dark horse is Anthony Davis. I think he's going to have a very good year with Cousins next to him. 30 / 12 / 4 / 2 / 1 on excellent efficiency and the Pel's win 55 games.

no one ever put up those numbers.

SHaq?

Then there is that NoOne dude (WILT) from the 60s that has like 10 seasons of better to way better stats than that.

[Edrees]

How on earth do people think Giannis, Blake and Butler (lmao) will be MVPs? You need to finish top 3 in the league with your team, unless you're a stat padder who gets a trip double and has a MVP narrative written before the season even begins. Who actually believes those three have a chance in hell of leading their team to have the 3rd best record in the league?

Blake has a similar narrative with CP3 leaving the team. If he gets 4th seed I"d say he's got a shot. The narrative will be "clippers lose cp3 but with griffin alone and yet they moved up 1 seed in the standings" Now I don't think it's likely but thats why he's a dark horse candidate. Not likely but if it happens its not out of left field either.

Clippers have no chance in hell of finishing 4th overall in the league. Warriors, Celtics, Spurs and Rockets are 100% going to finish above them. In the West alone, OKC and at least 1/2 other teams will likely finish above. Keep in mind other than Chuckbrook, the last time someone won MVP without his team finishing in the top 3 was not in this century.

Sorry - i Meant 4th seed in the west. The narrative will apply if that happens.

[Cycloneon]

Kawhi is gonna be MVP

He gonna put the league on notice and show the world once and for all

[-G-]

I got Kawhi.

I think Durant and Curry cancel each other out
I think the Westbrook train will slow down even if he repeats his performance
Harden goes down due to CP3

I'd go:
1. Kawhi
2. Lebron
3. Westbrook
4. Giannis
5. Wall

Giannis and Wall being darkhorses.

[Young_Star11]

Will go Kawhi.

Russ will put up a 29/8/11 season on a team winning 50+ and not win MVP.

[mtron929]

No matter what happens, I predict that the MVP will again go to a player that is not the best player in the league. It is almost like you are penalize for the award if you are the best.

[Impuniti]

Blake has a similar narrative with CP3 leaving the team. If he gets 4th seed I"d say he's got a shot. The narrative will be "clippers lose cp3 but with griffin alone and yet they moved up 1 seed in the standings" Now I don't think it's likely but thats why he's a dark horse candidate. Not likely but if it happens its not out of left field either.

Clippers have no chance in hell of finishing 4th overall in the league. Warriors, Celtics, Spurs and Rockets are 100% going to finish above them. In the West alone, OKC and at least 1/2 other teams will likely finish above. Keep in mind other than Chuckbrook, the last time someone won MVP without his team finishing in the top 3 was not in this century.

Sorry - i Meant 4th seed in the west. The narrative will apply if that happens.

Doubtful. WB is a massive outlier to every single other year.

[Poohdini1]

LeBron.

Cavs trade Kyrie, 'downgrade' in the eyes of many, despite that Bron takes them to the #1 seed in one of his last dominant seasons.

Could make a strong argument he deserved it last year, dude averaged 26-8-8.

Their struggles after the ASG and Westbrook prevented it, but this year he'll have the story line to match the insane numbers.

[Bobalob]

Please explain how a 22 year old is in the middle of his prime.

And nearly everyone develops their shot after they stop growing.

He is a top 10 rim protector that runs the point. A 7'er that can Euro step from 35 feet. He blocked a shot in the playoffs with his ELBOW. Now he needs to be able to shoot 3s too? You sure don't ask for much do you? He already had a season no one in the history of basketball has ever had while starting the season as a 21 year old.

But I guess if you are comparing him to the two best players in basketball he isn't too bad.

I said middle of his prime because it's suspected to happen somewhere around 25-27 years old or season 7-9 which would be the middle of his prime.

Everyone develops their shot after they stop growing? What the hell? Are you joking? What is he, a 12 year old? H'e's about to turn 23.

Top 10 rim protector that can play point forward. 7'er that can euro step from 35 feet. Can block shots with ease. If he wants to be MVP, he had better learn how to shoot because there's another 7'er that can do all of those things while actually being a generational shooter.

As for this whole, basketball season that noone has ever had. The stats were absurdly cherry-picked 22/8/5/1.5/1.5? Really? How do you come up with those parameters?

And I compared him with the two best players in basketball because he has to be better than them to win MVP. And he's a LONG way away from that because he's worse at 22 than they were at 21 and they're now twice the players that they were early in their careers.

He was still growing leading up to last offseason.

Prime is 26-30 or 4-8 years away for Giannis. He doesnt turn 23 until the middle of Dec so your insistence on calling him 23 is just weird, and repeatedly defending your position that he IS in his prime is just intellectually lazy. No 22 year old has been at their peak without a horrible injury.

If you think Zinger can run the floor or run an offense like Giannis you should probably try watching him play some time. Calling him a point center is entirely reasonable. Milwaukees best lineups include him at the 5 though they are loathe to play him there.

Are the stats cherry picked? Sure. Its still damn impressive. No one had ever been in the top 20 in the league in Pts/Rebs/Asst/Stl/Bl before his season last year and he legitimately does it all for the Bucks. At 22 his trajectory is still pointing towards the stars.

No 22 year old is EVER a finished product with their shot. Not even great shooters. It takes 100s of thousands of reps to become a great shooter and it has historically taken players time to develop that skill. And when he does, because no one works like Giannis, he will be completely unguardable with ball skills never seen in a player his size.

Keep doubting him. He will keep making posts like these look foolish over the coming years. Before last year people were still calling him Anthony Randolph. Look how dumb those posts looked after his 2nd team All NBA nod.

The flaw in your thinking is that a player in the middle of his prime is significantly better than a player just entering his prime.

'Prime' really just means there are no more questions to your game. You are who you are and you can write a check on it. The consistency is there. It doesnt mean you are getting better every year. It means your output can now be expected. (You do add a lot of mental things)

James Harden is in his prime. Is he gong to be better than he was last year or before? Probably not. He is who he is. Steph Curry is in his prime. He isnt very much better overall than when he won 2 mvps. He cant really get any better except a few things here n there.

So after this year and next, Giannis' game is going to settle in and there's no more 'omg wait until...'. So thats the point we're making. Giannis is not going to ascend for 4 more years. His game is going to platueau soon. He cant be looked at as 'potential' forever

[HurricaneKid]

I said middle of his prime because it's suspected to happen somewhere around 25-27 years old or season 7-9 which would be the middle of his prime.

Everyone develops their shot after they stop growing? What the hell? Are you joking? What is he, a 12 year old? H'e's about to turn 23.

Top 10 rim protector that can play point forward. 7'er that can euro step from 35 feet. Can block shots with ease. If he wants to be MVP, he had better learn how to shoot because there's another 7'er that can do all of those things while actually being a generational shooter.

As for this whole, basketball season that noone has ever had. The stats were absurdly cherry-picked 22/8/5/1.5/1.5? Really? How do you come up with those parameters?

And I compared him with the two best players in basketball because he has to be better than them to win MVP. And he's a LONG way away from that because he's worse at 22 than they were at 21 and they're now twice the players that they were early in their careers.

He was still growing leading up to last offseason.

Prime is 26-30 or 4-8 years away for Giannis. He doesnt turn 23 until the middle of Dec so your insistence on calling him 23 is just weird, and repeatedly defending your position that he IS in his prime is just intellectually lazy. No 22 year old has been at their peak without a horrible injury.

If you think Zinger can run the floor or run an offense like Giannis you should probably try watching him play some time. Calling him a point center is entirely reasonable. Milwaukees best lineups include him at the 5 though they are loathe to play him there.

Are the stats cherry picked? Sure. Its still damn impressive. No one had ever been in the top 20 in the league in Pts/Rebs/Asst/Stl/Bl before his season last year and he legitimately does it all for the Bucks. At 22 his trajectory is still pointing towards the stars.

No 22 year old is EVER a finished product with their shot. Not even great shooters. It takes 100s of thousands of reps to become a great shooter and it has historically taken players time to develop that skill. And when he does, because no one works like Giannis, he will be completely unguardable with ball skills never seen in a player his size.

Keep doubting him. He will keep making posts like these look foolish over the coming years. Before last year people were still calling him Anthony Randolph. Look how dumb those posts looked after his 2nd team All NBA nod.

The flaw in your thinking is that a player in the middle of his prime is significantly better than a player just entering his prime.

'Prime' really just means there are no more questions to your game. You are who you are and you can write a check on it. The consistency is there. It doesnt mean you are getting better every year. It means your output can now be expected. (You do add a lot of mental things)

James Harden is in his prime. Is he gong to be better than he was last year or before? Probably not. He is who he is. Steph Curry is in his prime. He isnt very much better overall than when he won 2 mvps. He cant really get any better except a few things here n there.

So after this year and next, Giannis' game is going to settle in and there's no more 'omg wait until...'. So thats the point we're making. Giannis is not going to ascend for 4 more years. His game is going to platueau soon. He cant be looked at as 'potential' forever

In two years he will be at his peak at 24? Again conventional wisdom is that peak is at 26 which is 4 years away and he will still be tweaking his jumper after that. 4 years ago scouts were saying he was multiple years from being worthy of an NBA roster. Now he is one of the 10 best players on the planet. 4 more years of growth where will he be? Who knows, but I feel confident enough to bookmark this thread so we can discuss it again at that time.

[Bobalob]

He was still growing leading up to last offseason.

Prime is 26-30 or 4-8 years away for Giannis. He doesnt turn 23 until the middle of Dec so your insistence on calling him 23 is just weird, and repeatedly defending your position that he IS in his prime is just intellectually lazy. No 22 year old has been at their peak without a horrible injury.

If you think Zinger can run the floor or run an offense like Giannis you should probably try watching him play some time. Calling him a point center is entirely reasonable. Milwaukees best lineups include him at the 5 though they are loathe to play him there.

Are the stats cherry picked? Sure. Its still damn impressive. No one had ever been in the top 20 in the league in Pts/Rebs/Asst/Stl/Bl before his season last year and he legitimately does it all for the Bucks. At 22 his trajectory is still pointing towards the stars.

No 22 year old is EVER a finished product with their shot. Not even great shooters. It takes 100s of thousands of reps to become a great shooter and it has historically taken players time to develop that skill. And when he does, because no one works like Giannis, he will be completely unguardable with ball skills never seen in a player his size.

Keep doubting him. He will keep making posts like these look foolish over the coming years. Before last year people were still calling him Anthony Randolph. Look how dumb those posts looked after his 2nd team All NBA nod.

The flaw in your thinking is that a player in the middle of his prime is significantly better than a player just entering his prime.

'Prime' really just means there are no more questions to your game. You are who you are and you can write a check on it. The consistency is there. It doesnt mean you are getting better every year. It means your output can now be expected. (You do add a lot of mental things)

James Harden is in his prime. Is he gong to be better than he was last year or before? Probably not. He is who he is. Steph Curry is in his prime. He isnt very much better overall than when he won 2 mvps. He cant really get any better except a few things here n there.

So after this year and next, Giannis' game is going to settle in and there's no more 'omg wait until...'. So thats the point we're making. Giannis is not going to ascend for 4 more years. His game is going to platueau soon. He cant be looked at as 'potential' forever

In two years he will be at his peak at 24? Again conventional wisdom is that peak is at 26 which is 4 years away and he will still be tweaking his jumper after that. 4 years ago scouts were saying he was multiple years from being worthy of an NBA roster. Now he is one of the 10 best players on the planet. 4 more years of growth where will he be? Who knows, but I feel confident enough to bookmark this thread so we can discuss it again at that time.

What im saying is the idea of a 'peak' is kinda flawed. Plateau's dont have peaks Players gradually get better until they reach their platueu, and thats the player they are for 5, 6 years aka their prime. Players dont just KEEP getting significantly better after a while. When they DO its from year 0 up to year 4/5, which is where Giannis already is. Everything moving forward are slight increases.

I'd say he has 1, MAYBE 2 at best more years where he will make significant, tangible, statistical climbs

[Ballerhogger]

Durant, Kawhi , Westbrook will be in the running

[RightToCensor]

1. Kawhi
2. Giannis
3. Westbrook
4. Lebron
5. Harden

[C3H6N6O6]

I think it will be Durant unfortunately. He was incredible last season but he had two factors workign against him, Injuries and stink with fans/media for his FA move. It's very reminiscent of LBJ's first season in Miami. There was no way he was going to win MVP since everyone was mad at him and wanted to see them fail. In his second season, everyone accepted his move and he won MVP (because eh's the best player in the world). I think the same will happen for Durant.

you seem to forget that Wade's knees kept getting worse which is why LeBron won the MVP.

Will Curry also get worse this season like Wade?

Why do people keep acting like LeBron's move to Miami and his teams in Miami were similar to Kd's move to Warriors and his teammates?

[old skool]

I think that it would be incredibly short sighted to attempt to predict what type of season Antetokounmpo will have this year. No reasonable NBA observer would have predicted any of his seasons to date at the start of training camp. He has out performed expectations every year. He has improved his performance in every major statistic every year that he has been in the NBA. He has demonstrated the ability to improve at a pace that defies comparisons with normal NBA players.

I was surprised early last year when Jason Kidd said that the Giannis was a once in a generation talent like Jordan and Magic who we should appreciate while we can. I thought that was hyperbole, but by the end of the year he was playing like one of the top players in the NBA at 22.

Based on his unprecedented improvement to date, no one should be surprised if Antetokounmpo has a breakout season and receives serious consideration for MVP. That is certainly more likely than his success last year, when no one predicted that he would be 2nd team All-NBA.

[ProfessorJM]

I think that it would be incredibly short sighted to attempt to predict what type of season Antetokounmpo will have this year. No reasonable NBA observer would have predicted any of his seasons to date at the start of training camp. He has out performed expectations every year. He has improved his performance in every major statistic every year that he has been in the NBA. He has demonstrated the ability to improve at a pace that defies comparisons with normal NBA players.

I was surprised early last year when Jason Kidd said that the Giannis was a once in a generation talent like Jordan and Magic who we should appreciate while we can. I thought that was hyperbole, but by the end of the year he was playing like one of the top players in the NBA at 22.

Based on his unprecedented improvement to date, no one should be surprised if Antetokounmpo has a breakout season and receives serious consideration for MVP. That is certainly more likely than his success last year, when no one predicted that he would be 2nd team All-NBA.

I agree to an extent. I think's foolish to try and gauge (at least make an overly confident prediction) a very unique talent with prior cases that are more in line with normal progressions. For one, he didn't grow up in the United States, and he also is clearly still deficient in areas that could drastically improve and yet he is already showing dominance. (three point shooting being one example) There is a lot of precedent for improvement in shooting with many players, even though it is true others have not fared so well. (say Jason Kidd versus Ricky Rubio) I also have a gut feeling that his mental toughness will be much better than current superstars today in Durant/LeBron, although right now I do not think Giannis will ever be as great as these two players either. Especially LeBron, he's a very unique multi-generational talent to me.

I saw him step up in the playoffs and saw him win 2nd team All-NBA (deserved) and then I realized he could barely drink, so I am curious what happens next. I mean Kawhi at 22 averaged I think like 13 points a game.