2018 MVP Prediction Discussion

levon · Post #981 » by **levon** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:51 pm

Why would Lebron win MVP? This is such a narrative award. There's a contingent of "he should get it because Kyrie left him".

PhilBlackson · Post #982 » by **PhilBlackson** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:07 pm

levon wrote:Why would Lebron win MVP? This is such a narrative award. There's a contingent of "he should get it because Kyrie left him".

My guess is to make up for all the other years he actually should have gotten it.

Gil · Post #983 » by **Gil** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:11 pm

LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

K_chile22 · Post #984 » by **K_chile22** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:24 pm

Gil wrote:LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

Not the Derrick Rose one. At risk of being attacked by Bulls fans, it should've been Bron or Dwight

Patches Perry · Post #985 » by **Patches Perry** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:32 pm

Gil wrote:LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

Yeah I agree mostly. LeBron has been the best player for 10 years, but the best player sometimes coasts and doesn't take the regular season seriously, and shouldn't be reward with a regular season award if they coasted.

Same thing with Jordan - people say "oh he should have won every year" but truthfully even though we knew he was the best, other guys played better during the regular season, and so deserved it more in those years.

LeBron does have a good argument this year if the Cavs can turn it around (although Harden is clearly the frontrunner).

levon · Post #986 » by **levon** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:49 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
Gil wrote:LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

Not the Derrick Rose one. At risk of being attacked by Bulls fans, it should've been Bron or Dwight

I keep hearing this, but Rose was absolutely the most valuable player for the Bulls that year. And it's harder to win MVP when you have another top 5 player in this game on your team.

K_chile22 · Post #987 » by **K_chile22** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:52 pm

AussieBuck wrote:Bucks have played the second hardest schedule so far, Houston 24th. Not that we'll get near Houston's record by the end of the season. Probably need to be within 10 games for Giannis to win MVP.

You understand that everyone that has played against the Rockets have played against the second best team in the league (by net rating), thus making most of their net rating's worse, which makes the Rockets SOS look worse yes? In a 12-15 game sample, that's a big deal. The sample is too small to be using SOS in any kind of serious capacity, and honestly SOS makes no sense in the NBA, by the time the sample get's big enough, everyone has played everyone. GS being 1 is a major outlier, that usually doesn't happen

AussieBuck · Post #988 » by **AussieBuck** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:05 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:Bucks have played the second hardest schedule so far, Houston 24th. Not that we'll get near Houston's record by the end of the season. Probably need to be within 10 games for Giannis to win MVP.

You understand that everyone that has played against the Rockets have played against the second best team in the league (by net rating), thus making most of their net rating's worse, which makes the Rockets SOS look worse yes? In a 12-15 game sample, that's a big deal. The sample is too small to be using SOS in any kind of serious capacity, and honestly SOS makes no sense in the NBA, by the time the sample get's big enough, everyone has played everyone. GS being 1 is a major outlier, that usually doesn't happen

Eh it's obviously noisy but there is no need to dismiss it particularly when there's a huge difference. This section of the Bucks schedule was always going to be tough, a lot of us were hoping that it was the Kidd gets fired run but the Bledsoe addition has likely saved the day.

RaptorsLife · Post #989 » by **RaptorsLife** » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:07 pm

I think harden is winning with wide margin. I think Giannis will win multiple mvps in his career but this is hardens year

Joey Wheeler · Post #990 » by **Joey Wheeler** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:12 am

Gil wrote:LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

If we take the definition of MVP at face value ie most valuable player in the league rather than best regular season performer, then Lebron should have won every single MVP in the last decade.

For instance this year, Harden might be playing better than Lebron in the RS, but is he more valuable than Lebron? Not a chance of course. Same for Westbrook, Curry, Durant, etc... in years past.

But then of course if MVP was awarded like that, Jordan would have won 10+ as well.

K_chile22 · Post #991 » by **K_chile22** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:30 am

Joey Wheeler wrote:
Gil wrote:LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

If we take the definition of MVP at face value ie most valuable player in the league rather than best regular season performer, then Lebron should have won every single MVP in the last decade.

For instance this year, Harden might be playing better than Lebron in the RS, but is he more valuable than Lebron? Not a chance of course. Same for Westbrook, Curry, Durant, etc... in years past.

But then of course if MVP was awarded like that, Jordan would have won 10+ as well.

Well it's a regular season award. In the regular season, all those guys have been more valuable than LeBron.

Ballerhogger · Post #992 » by **Ballerhogger** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:06 am

I got harden as mvp leader atm

C3H6N6O6 · Post #993 » by **C3H6N6O6** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:37 am

MVP might end up depending upong how many games Cavs and Rockets win.

If Rockets win 65 games then Harden is winning it no matter what anyone else does.
If Cavs win 55+ games with LeBron putting the same stats he is putting up right now then LeBron would win it.

BloodNinja · Post #994 » by **BloodNinja** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:26 am

C3H6N6O6 wrote:MVP might end up depending upong how many games Cavs and Rockets win.

If Rockets win 65 games then Harden is winning it no matter what anyone else does.
If Cavs win 55+ games with LeBron putting the same stats he is putting up right now then LeBron would win it.

Cavs would have to win 70% of their games going forward which would be pretty tough considering injuries, rest, better teams in the East overall.

Houston will win a minimum of 58, probably mid 60's and Harden will win MVP

C3H6N6O6 · Post #995 » by **C3H6N6O6** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:31 am

BloodNinja wrote:
C3H6N6O6 wrote:MVP might end up depending upong how many games Cavs and Rockets win.

If Rockets win 65 games then Harden is winning it no matter what anyone else does.
If Cavs win 55+ games with LeBron putting the same stats he is putting up right now then LeBron would win it.

Cavs would have to win 70% of their games going forward which would be pretty tough considering injuries, rest, better teams in the East overall.

Houston will win a minimum of 58, probably mid 60's and Harden will win MVP

and that is why i used "if"
Also, it isn't that tough to play .700 ball. Cavs haven't played well for more than 1 quarter each in last 4 games and they have won them. Just beating average and below average teams will get you to 70% win percentage

K_chile22 · Post #996 » by **K_chile22** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:54 am

C3H6N6O6 wrote:
BloodNinja wrote:
C3H6N6O6 wrote:MVP might end up depending upong how many games Cavs and Rockets win.

If Rockets win 65 games then Harden is winning it no matter what anyone else does.
If Cavs win 55+ games with LeBron putting the same stats he is putting up right now then LeBron would win it.

Cavs would have to win 70% of their games going forward which would be pretty tough considering injuries, rest, better teams in the East overall.

Houston will win a minimum of 58, probably mid 60's and Harden will win MVP

and that is why i used "if"
Also, it isn't that tough to play .700 ball. Cavs haven't played well for more than 1 quarter each in last 4 games and they have won them. Just beating average and below average teams will get you to 70% win percentage

While they're schedule isn't perfectly even throughout the league, beating below and average teams will, on average, have you at .500. Because about half the teams are below average. Not 70% of them. Your math is a bit off there.

The difference between .500 and .700 is huge.

Just beating below average teams doesn't get you to 58 wins (roughly a 70% win rate)

Post #997 » by **Young_Star11** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:48 am

If last year was a precedent, eight less wins did not matter.

greekbuck34 · Post #998 » by **greekbuck34** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:17 pm

RPM numbers have just been updated and Harden's DRPM went from +0.77( ? ) to -0.35 after just 2-3 games so it's safe to assume that at least DRPM at the moment is as stable as a heart rate monitor...

MartinToVaught · Post #999 » by **MartinToVaught** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:19 pm

Gil wrote:LeBron's gotten every single MVP he's ever deserved.

No he hasn't. He deserved the award in 2006, 2008 and 2011 and didn't win.

Post #1000 » by **TMU** » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:44 pm

greekbuck34 wrote:RPM numbers have just been updated and Harden's DRPM went from +0.77( ? ) to -0.35 after just 2-3 games so it's safe to assume that at least DRPM at the moment is as stable as a heart rate monitor...

The bottomline is that it's just not a good stat to measure the best player in the league, let alone the MVP.

With that said, I still think he's at the forefront of this race.