abark wrote:OptionZero wrote:Magic_Johnny12 wrote:But why invest 204 million dollars over the next four years in a core of Richardson, Olynk, Johnson and Waiters? That screams treadmill
It's not fair to lump all of those players together. I said in my original post that MIA did a poor job this offseason, but Richardson isn't part of the problem.
Olynyk is 26; Johnson is 30; Waiters is 25. None of these guys have any upside (i don't expect Waiters to play as well as he did last year), but they got long term money.
I would have skipped Olynyk entirely since I don't really think there's much difference between Olynyk and say, Mo Speights or Mike Muscala. Hell, you can probably get Channing Frye for free and those are short term risks. Johnson and Justise Winslow should be getting more PF minutes and Olynyk is a sieve on defense, so how much can you really use him? I just don't see the point.
Johnson is 30 y/o and played far above his career norms, there's no reason to go 3yrs / $43M for him.
Basically, the HEAT locked themselves into this roster and the ceiling is . . . maybe the 4th seed?
Johnson, Olynyk, and Waiters - how many teams would take any of those contracts for free?
I agree that we have locked ourselves into an above average treadmill type team. But I disagree that any of the contracts given out were actually bad contracts.
Johnson averaged 17/ 6.5/ 5 per 36 minutes, to go along with great defense. He was as impactful as anyone on the team when he was on the court. He played far above his career norms because he got in shape for the first time in his career. And unlike Waiters, he performed consistently enough that there is little chance this was a fluke.
Spo made a mistake only giving him 27 mpg last year. When he finally started the last 5 games of the season, he put up 18/ 7/ 5.5. He could be a borderline all star, on a level similar to Dragic and Whiteside, if he starts next year.
Also, you are calling Richardson young and acting like he has potential, even though he turns 24 tomorrow. If that's the case then Olynyk and Waiters should not be looked at THAT much differently.
And Olynyk is not a defensive seive. He has had a positive defensive box +/- every year of his career. He is not a rim protector, due to his short wingspan, but he is much more mobile than he gets credit for. Just look at this article on his pick and roll defense.
https://www.hothothoops.com/2017/9/12/16294654/overlooked-strength-kelly-olynyk-brings-miami-heat-james-johnson-hassan-whiteside-luke-babbittI think we could find a team that would take every single one of our contracts for free, except for Tyler Johnson when his contract balloons from 6 to 20 million from the poison pill.
And our team was going over the cap once TJ got his salary boost, so it's not like going with a cheaper option than Olynyk would have done anything besides save the owner money. We would have had to let at least 3 of these guys go to make much difference.
This was our only chance to sign a big FA with this core. After missing out on Hayward, our two options were to completely blow it up (while missing 2 of our next 3 1st round draft picks), or go all in with a team that went 30-11 to finish the year.
Neither option was ideal, but Riley definitely went all in on one of them.
Johnson shot 34% from 3P last year - thats maybe a hair above league average and that was STILL by far the highest mark of his career. He's never shown the ability to be a fulltime 3, he's best at 4, and perhaps his greatest role is to be a poor man's Draymond Green at the 5. He's 30 years old - keeping him is fine, but why for three years? Was there competition for him at that price/years? I believe Utah was the only other team in the running, and they certainly backed off at that contract range
The problem with Olynyk's signing is tied to Johnson. Where's he gonna play? Whiteside is making $20M/year, he's gonna start (i didn't like that contract either). Johnson's getting paid, his best spot is the 4. You drafted Adebayo, you still have Winslow, who frankly should be getting the chance to do some of what Johnson did? Olynyk will never be a starter, he's making too much for a reserve, you got other guys who need minutes in the front court.
Waiters is 25, but he's been in the league 5 years, we know what he is. He also had, by far, the best 3P% of his career. And the Heat already have Tyler Johnson as a reserve guard, making that spike in his contract.
I'd be terrified that so many dudes had career performances and thats what the team is paying for.
I'm gonna completely disagree that you can move those contracts. No one wants Johnson's contract; we didn't hear anyone lining up to pay Olynyk, and there's a reason Waiters was available for $3M in the first place He wasn't exactly endearing himself to teams.
There's no superstar talent on this team; overpaying for middle rotation guys is how you get stuck; the Heat just did exactly what Portland did - overspending to keep together a team that had a second half surge, with no upside to even be a conference finalist (unless injuries kill another team/teams)
While the Johnson spike did create a window for using cap space, that does not mean you are required to use it because you get stuck with long term money. Portland would have been better off letting a couple of their guys go and foregoing that window of cap space, because they'd have way more flexibility
If you are a championship level team like GSW, or even CLE, you pay to keep the team together; if you're not, there's no point in overpaying bench guys
I would have skipped Olynyk all together, kept ONE of Johnson/Waiters, done the Richardson extension, and tried to move Johnson, then went bargain shopping for one or 2 year deals. The Jazz, for example, got a bunch of really useful bench guys on short commitments for less money than MIA spent; they were way smarter about their offseason. hell, they might be a better team despite losing Hayward than miami
If you want to skip all of that because you disagree with me, fine, but how bout this:
YOU'RE MIAMI. You have a natural home court advantage for any star that becomes available. Even with recent misses, you are a better option than basically 80% of the league. YOU CAN AIM HIGH! Flexibility is more valuable to them because they'll be attractive to stars. Irving had them on his list. Any free agent will likely give you a meeting, at minimum. If you have cap space and/or the ability to easily create cap space, plus even a few assets, you are in the game.