AdagioPace wrote:nikster wrote:AdagioPace wrote:
I think those data presented by him
1)cannot be a representation of the toughness of the path that separates the player form a title. I simply don't agree with his theory. Not even the slightest ,and I explained why.
2) data are presented in a bad way, especially "the average toughest matchup before finals" part.
I'm not an expert, but even as a profane you can tell that the bars regarding Lebron are way too "pronounced" and the bars regarding Magic,Mj and Duncan are too disadvantaged. This might have to do with his method and its results rather than mala fides, of course.
yeah, you have to be cautious.
For example,there's also a problem with the grouping
Hakeem and Garnett had few playoff runs that led to a title, you can't compare the average of 1 playoff run to the average of 5 or 6 items
The random fan will read as follows
"wow,Lebron had to face the toughest competition ever and magic,duncan,mj had a cakewalk to the finals"
Results like those can be easily misunderstood and the author doesn't do anything to prevent such an occurrence. Obviously his aim is to debunk the theory that Lebron never had to face tough opponents (I'm ok with that and I agree with him) but in doing so he puts other goat players in a bad light.
Every GOAT player had to face different adversities, bringing everything down to "the toughest opponent" is nearsighted
who cares about what the random fan would think? The average person doesn't know how to analyze or interpret data in a meaningful way, and would probably accept or dismiss the information based on if it told them what they wanted to hear.
The bars aren't too pronounced or disadvantaged (assuming the information was accurate), it reflects what it says it does: Title odds as a way to reflect the strength of toughest opponent. The rest is interpretation. Again, this is just one of many ways to look at "toughness" of a Finals win. You can and should also factor in the context, and many different types of analysis. Your disagreements would make more sense if someone claimed this was the end all.
If you really want to discuss the relevance of the data you can ask certain questions like:
1) Does Title odds correlate well with the toughness of opponent?
-This is the most important question, otherwise, the whole chart is meaningless. But I would say Yes, it is a pretty good predictor of toughness
2) Does having the toughest opponents correlate with having the toughest path to the final
-Again I would say yes. How strong of a correlation it is debatable Of course, there are other factors to take into account but it is a meaningful indicator. Sure, sometimes a team plays tougher early round opponents which could impact difficulty of the finals. But at the same time, an average of opponents doesnt necessarily give a good picture (Ex. playing 4 moderately tough opponents, vs facing 3 weak and 1 extremely strong opponent)
3) Is sample size sufficient for these players
-Depends on the player. But any statistic where you look at titles is going to lacking in sample size
So yeah, this data can be useful when used correctly.
First of all the (forgotten)aim of science is to convey clear information with clear intent,even to a general audience to avoid the "pettifogger" effect.We're in forum after all.
"Title odds as a way to reflect the strength of the toughest opponent"
what exactly is this study supposed to mean? What's his aim?
I was raising concerns about the conclusions you could draw from such a analysis.
For example he's saying,implicitly, that Lebron's playoff runs are more impressive than Jordan's or Duncan's only because the best team he faced was usually better than the best team TD and MJ faced?..while completely ignoring what it takes to beat stronger opponents in the earlier rounds.
Correlation what??
If my knee is more inflamed than yours after the first round there's nothing a "correlation" can do to convince me otherwise
Aside form that, Mj and Duncan never had a chance to face the Warriors so we're talking about "hot air".
If people want to defend Lebron from the usual attacks about the easiness of his overall playoff runs, the fact that he faced the toughest opponents ever in the finals doesnt alter the evidence that "the earlier rounds are easier for him" and thus "he's more ready to face toughest oppoenents"
Name any other metric to help determine the toughness of a finals run and ill be able to poke holes in it.