The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

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Who wins? (May select 2 options.)

Simmons
361
38%
Ball
35
4%
Kuzma
39
4%
Tatum
103
11%
Markkanen
78
8%
Smith Jr
7
1%
Fox
5
1%
Mitchell
280
30%
Anunoby
18
2%
Other
14
1%
 
Total votes: 940

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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2041 » by nurseryc » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:28 pm

Luke wrote:
nurseryc wrote::roll:
Luke wrote:

Sorry Simmons, Mitchell is the real deal...


Umm is this poster for real? :banghead:


Maybe you need to be more relaxed when you talk about basketball. I know that Simmons can be a great player too. Maybe now you can relax...


Maybe you need to have some knowledge when you try to talk basketball kid
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2042 » by bebopdeluxe » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:30 pm

commentatorer wrote:16ppg 7.9apg 7.9rpg 1.7spg 0.8bpg .537fg
Most underrated player in the NBA.


Simmons is in the top 10 in two major statistical categories - 6th in assists/game and 9th in steals/game - and in terms of advanced analytics, he is 16th in VORP and 19th in BPM...primaraly because of his crazy defensive stats:

2nd in DWS
7th in DBPM
14th in Defensive Rating

In the ENTIRE NBA.

When you look at the others on the VORP list with him, it is a list of the elite players in the NBA. THAT is the level that Ben Simmons is playing at this season. Again - no disrespect to Mitchell...he is having a great season for the Jazz, and if they make the playoffs he is a key reason why they make it. But the SIxers are not only going to make the playoffs, they are increasingly looking like they are going to get a top-4 seed and it is no longer a pipe dream to make a case for them representing the East in the FInals (where they would likely get smoked by the Rockets or Warriors, but I digress).
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2043 » by bebopdeluxe » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:35 pm

Luke wrote:
nurseryc wrote::roll:
Luke wrote:

Sorry Simmons, Mitchell is the real deal...


Umm is this poster for real? :banghead:


Maybe you need to be more relaxed when you talk about basketball. I know that Simmons can be a great player too. Maybe now you can relax...


Maybe you need to cut back on the drama with the "Sorry Simmons, Mitchell is the real deal" crap when you post in this thread, if you don't want to get responses like that.

"Sorry Simmons..."

WTF is that ish? WHO is apologizing for WHAT?

:nonono:
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2044 » by Luke » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:38 pm

bebopdeluxe wrote:
Luke wrote:


Donovan Mitchell scored 26 points with five rebounds, four assists, three steals and one 3-pointer during a 119-112 win over the Mavs on Thursday.

He carried his team late with some strong drives to the hoop. Mitchell's season is in rare air all time for scoring, and his 24th 25-plus point game tonight ties LeBron James for his rookie season. Mitchell does so much more than score and he's strung together nine straight games with at least one steal and one 3-pointer.



Sorry Simmons, Mitchell is the real deal...


Why does Ben Simmons need to be sorry? And who is saying that Mitchell is not the real deal?

Mitchell is having a great season. No one is doubting that. He is also being counted on by Quin Snyder to play crazy minutes for a rookie (41 minutes against Atlanta - yes?) and take on a lot of responsibility...which he has handled well. Simmons has the luxury these days to play 10 minutes less a game (only 26 tonight), which reduces the chance to keep putting up triple doubles. But while Mitchell has to play heavy minutes just for the Jazz to make the playoffs, Brown has the luxury to cut back on Simmons’ workload while still getting a top-4 seed and homecourt.

If you were to ask Ben Simmons, he doesn’t give a damn about triple doubles or ROY - he wants to win in the playoffs.


He doesn't need to be sorry. I put only a little irony to his fans who often go into a war and keep downplaying what Mitchell is doing. I know that Simmons is going to be a great player if he can stay heathy and he works on his game. I personally would give the ROY to both, as it happened once in this League.
By the way I agree with everything you said, and I add that Mitchell too probably would like to compete in the playoffs.

Last thing, just to understand that I was not hating on Simmons ( sometimes it needs to be said); i wish him to have a great postseason, maybe with a great head to head with the chosen one ...
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2045 » by SmartWentCrazy » Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:01 pm

bebopdeluxe wrote:
commentatorer wrote:16ppg 7.9apg 7.9rpg 1.7spg 0.8bpg .537fg
Most underrated player in the NBA.


Simmons is in the top 10 in two major statistical categories - 6th in assists/game and 9th in steals/game - and in terms of advanced analytics, he is 16th in VORP and 19th in BPM...primaraly because of his crazy defensive stats:

2nd in DWS
7th in DBPM
14th in Defensive Rating

In the ENTIRE NBA.

When you look at the others on the VORP list with him, it is a list of the elite players in the NBA. THAT is the level that Ben Simmons is playing at this season. Again - no disrespect to Mitchell...he is having a great season for the Jazz, and if they make the playoffs he is a key reason why they make it. But the SIxers are not only going to make the playoffs, they are increasingly looking like they are going to get a top-4 seed and it is no longer a pipe dream to make a case for them representing the East in the FInals (where they would likely get smoked by the Rockets or Warriors, but I digress).


DWS is a flawed measure of a players defensive impact and I wouldnt read too heavily into it. It divvy’s up a teams wins and assigns an equal weight to the players on the court. Good players on good defensive teams that have won a lot of games tend to get overstated and great defenders on above average defensive teams that may not have won as much are disproportionately dinged. Simmons is an awesome defender, but I would not have him as a top 10/all-nba defender.

Similarly, DRTG is a tool that evaluates how a team performs with a player on the court. Its prone to multi-collinearity where other excellent players can impact your score [i.e. Covington and Embiid bias Simmons DRTG upward] or other terrible defenders can drag you down.

Unfortunately there really arent many great evaluation tools for a players defense.

TL;DR - Simmons is an awesome defender, but the stats you chose to demonstrate this are flawed [as most defensive advanced analytics unfortunately are].
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2046 » by bebopdeluxe » Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:13 pm

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
bebopdeluxe wrote:
commentatorer wrote:16ppg 7.9apg 7.9rpg 1.7spg 0.8bpg .537fg
Most underrated player in the NBA.


Simmons is in the top 10 in two major statistical categories - 6th in assists/game and 9th in steals/game - and in terms of advanced analytics, he is 16th in VORP and 19th in BPM...primaraly because of his crazy defensive stats:

2nd in DWS
7th in DBPM
14th in Defensive Rating

In the ENTIRE NBA.

When you look at the others on the VORP list with him, it is a list of the elite players in the NBA. THAT is the level that Ben Simmons is playing at this season. Again - no disrespect to Mitchell...he is having a great season for the Jazz, and if they make the playoffs he is a key reason why they make it. But the SIxers are not only going to make the playoffs, they are increasingly looking like they are going to get a top-4 seed and it is no longer a pipe dream to make a case for them representing the East in the FInals (where they would likely get smoked by the Rockets or Warriors, but I digress).


DWS is a flawed measure of a players defensive impact and I wouldnt read too heavily into it. It divvy’s up a teams wins and assigns an equal weight to the players on the court. Good players on good defensive teams that have won a lot of games tend to get overstated and great defenders on above average defensive teams that may not have won as much are disproportionately dinged. Simmons is an awesome defender, but I would not have him as a top 10/all-nba defender.

Similarly, DRTG is a tool that evaluates how a team performs with a player on the court. Its prone to multi-collinearity where other excellent players can impact your score [i.e. Covington and Embiid bias Simmons DRTG upward] or other terrible defenders can drag you down.

Unfortunately there really arent many great evaluation tools for a players defense.

TL;DR - Simmons is an awesome defender, but the stats you chose to demonstrate this are flawed [as most defensive advanced analytics unfortunately are].


I appreciate your perspective on this. No statistical measure is perfect - there are so many different variables involved, and at times it is hard to isolate the specific data point you are looking to ascertain.

I would say, however, that the point still stands that there is a wide gulf between Simmons' defensive contributions to team success and Mitchell. By your post, the fact that Mitchell plays on a team that is a good defensive team in its own right - with a legit DPOY as the anchor - would suggest that Mitchell's defensive metrics should get a bounce from that...but his defensive metrics pale in comparison to Simmons.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2047 » by clyde21 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:11 pm

Preach, Rick.

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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2048 » by SmartWentCrazy » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:23 pm

bebopdeluxe wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
bebopdeluxe wrote:
Simmons is in the top 10 in two major statistical categories - 6th in assists/game and 9th in steals/game - and in terms of advanced analytics, he is 16th in VORP and 19th in BPM...primaraly because of his crazy defensive stats:

2nd in DWS
7th in DBPM
14th in Defensive Rating

In the ENTIRE NBA.

When you look at the others on the VORP list with him, it is a list of the elite players in the NBA. THAT is the level that Ben Simmons is playing at this season. Again - no disrespect to Mitchell...he is having a great season for the Jazz, and if they make the playoffs he is a key reason why they make it. But the SIxers are not only going to make the playoffs, they are increasingly looking like they are going to get a top-4 seed and it is no longer a pipe dream to make a case for them representing the East in the FInals (where they would likely get smoked by the Rockets or Warriors, but I digress).


DWS is a flawed measure of a players defensive impact and I wouldnt read too heavily into it. It divvy’s up a teams wins and assigns an equal weight to the players on the court. Good players on good defensive teams that have won a lot of games tend to get overstated and great defenders on above average defensive teams that may not have won as much are disproportionately dinged. Simmons is an awesome defender, but I would not have him as a top 10/all-nba defender.

Similarly, DRTG is a tool that evaluates how a team performs with a player on the court. Its prone to multi-collinearity where other excellent players can impact your score [i.e. Covington and Embiid bias Simmons DRTG upward] or other terrible defenders can drag you down.

Unfortunately there really arent many great evaluation tools for a players defense.

TL;DR - Simmons is an awesome defender, but the stats you chose to demonstrate this are flawed [as most defensive advanced analytics unfortunately are].


I appreciate your perspective on this. No statistical measure is perfect - there are so many different variables involved, and at times it is hard to isolate the specific data point you are looking to ascertain.

I would say, however, that the point still stands that there is a wide gulf between Simmons' defensive contributions to team success and Mitchell. By your post, the fact that Mitchell plays on a team that is a good defensive team in its own right - with a legit DPOY as the anchor - would suggest that Mitchell's defensive metrics should get a bounce from that...but his defensive metrics pale in comparison to Simmons.


Without looking into it much, I would say that Mitchell is prone to the same biases as Simmons. If Simmons is relatively better in some stats, thats more significant than their individual rank in the NBA.

I believe Simmons has been a more consistently impactful defender than Mitchell. Part of that is due to talent and part of it is due to role (where Mitchell’s volume/usage on offense makes it very hard for him to similarly exert effort defensively)
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2049 » by theo42 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:44 pm

clyde21 wrote:Preach, Rick.


Does Carlisle not know the definition of an NBA rookie too?
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2050 » by yoyoboy » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:52 pm

This thread should just be named the Simmons and Mitchell thread. No other rookie discussion even goes on lol.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2051 » by dukes_wild » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:55 pm

Mitchell is so fun to watch man. Once he learns to fix his shot selection a bit, and find ways to get that 3.5 FTA/game up to 5 or 6, he will be a deadly player worthy of All-NBA status
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2052 » by jazzfan1971 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:10 pm

dukes_wild wrote:Mitchell is so fun to watch man. Once he learns to fix his shot selection a bit, and find ways to get that 3.5 FTA/game up to 5 or 6, he will be a deadly player worthy of All-NBA status


I expect that ft rate will be the next thing he works on. He's a quick study, won't take him long to figure out the tricks.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2053 » by commentatorer » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:15 pm

SmartWentCrazy wrote:
bebopdeluxe wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
DWS is a flawed measure of a players defensive impact and I wouldnt read too heavily into it. It divvy’s up a teams wins and assigns an equal weight to the players on the court. Good players on good defensive teams that have won a lot of games tend to get overstated and great defenders on above average defensive teams that may not have won as much are disproportionately dinged. Simmons is an awesome defender, but I would not have him as a top 10/all-nba defender.

Similarly, DRTG is a tool that evaluates how a team performs with a player on the court. Its prone to multi-collinearity where other excellent players can impact your score [i.e. Covington and Embiid bias Simmons DRTG upward] or other terrible defenders can drag you down.

Unfortunately there really arent many great evaluation tools for a players defense.

TL;DR - Simmons is an awesome defender, but the stats you chose to demonstrate this are flawed [as most defensive advanced analytics unfortunately are].


I appreciate your perspective on this. No statistical measure is perfect - there are so many different variables involved, and at times it is hard to isolate the specific data point you are looking to ascertain.

I would say, however, that the point still stands that there is a wide gulf between Simmons' defensive contributions to team success and Mitchell. By your post, the fact that Mitchell plays on a team that is a good defensive team in its own right - with a legit DPOY as the anchor - would suggest that Mitchell's defensive metrics should get a bounce from that...but his defensive metrics pale in comparison to Simmons.


Without looking into it much, I would say that Mitchell is prone to the same biases as Simmons. If Simmons is relatively better in some stats, thats more significant than their individual rank in the NBA.

I believe Simmons has been a more consistently impactful defender than Mitchell. Part of that is due to talent and part of it is due to role (where Mitchell’s volume/usage on offense makes it very hard for him to similarly exert effort defensively)

But Simmons leads the NBA in possessions, so its even harder for Simmons to exert effort defensively.
On top of that, Simmons is 4th in the NBA in paint scoring, so that's a lot of physical effort without any lazy jump shots to rely on.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2054 » by SmartWentCrazy » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:19 pm

commentatorer wrote:
SmartWentCrazy wrote:
bebopdeluxe wrote:
I appreciate your perspective on this. No statistical measure is perfect - there are so many different variables involved, and at times it is hard to isolate the specific data point you are looking to ascertain.

I would say, however, that the point still stands that there is a wide gulf between Simmons' defensive contributions to team success and Mitchell. By your post, the fact that Mitchell plays on a team that is a good defensive team in its own right - with a legit DPOY as the anchor - would suggest that Mitchell's defensive metrics should get a bounce from that...but his defensive metrics pale in comparison to Simmons.


Without looking into it much, I would say that Mitchell is prone to the same biases as Simmons. If Simmons is relatively better in some stats, thats more significant than their individual rank in the NBA.

I believe Simmons has been a more consistently impactful defender than Mitchell. Part of that is due to talent and part of it is due to role (where Mitchell’s volume/usage on offense makes it very hard for him to similarly exert effort defensively)

But Simmons leads the NBA in possessions, so its even harder for Simmons to exert effort defensively.
On top of that, Simmons is 4th in the NBA in paint scoring, so that's a lot of physical effort without any lazy jump shots.


His usage is ~25% less than Mitchell.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2055 » by commentatorer » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:29 pm

1. Ben Simmons = 96.3 touches per game
2. Russell Westbrook = 95.5 touches per game

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 15.9 points in the paint per game
2. Anthony Davis 15.3 points in the paint per game
3. LeBron James 14.5 points in the paint per game
4. Ben Simmons 12.8 points in the paint per game
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2056 » by CoreyGallagher » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:09 pm

Since there's noticeable caveats with every defensive metric. Here's it laid out a bit more plainly. Fansided delved into Simmons versatility defensively.
Spoiler:
Read on Twitter

Meanwhile, he's tied 11th in defended field goal percentage holding opponents to 41% shooting, -5.1% below their seasonal averages. That's tied with Giannis and Iggy. Among those that the NBA(.com) considers Guards, only Jaylen Brown ranks higher. Ranks 20th in deflections per game, 4th in loose balls recovered, and he's above 2% in both steals and blocks. He's a very effective defender and he typically can defend whichever player on the opposing team that the 76ers need him to, regardless of position.
Spoiler:
Read on Twitter

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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2057 » by HotelVitale » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:31 pm

Got to watch a full half of both Simmons and Mitchell last night, since the Sixers blew out the Magic (and my UM Wolverines were annihilating A&M too). Simmons runs around and creates great opportunities for his teammates, and he also doesn't hold the ball, keeps that thing moving like a hot potato. And Mitchell's an awesome driver with a perfect NBA wing's body, effortless shot creator with a lot of Wade to him. Jealous.

Anyway long story short is that it seems really stupid to split hairs about who's better, and I'm hanging up my laces in that argument. I love the advanced #s and the rhetoric as much as anyone else but at this point it's tired and leading us into some of the worst debates about great players I've ever seen. If you don't think either of them is really really good, you're missing the obvious, as are all these weak lines about how one little advantage one has over the other means everything.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2058 » by PhilBlackson » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:46 pm

yoyoboy wrote:This thread should just be named the Simmons and Mitchell thread. No other rookie discussion even goes on lol.


Said this several times lol

If it weren't for the occasional joke about Lonzo Ball you wouldn't know it wasn't a comparison thread.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2059 » by commentatorer » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:54 pm

HotelVitale wrote:Got to watch a full half of both Simmons and Mitchell last night, since the Sixers blew out the Magic (and my UM Wolverines were annihilating A&M too). Simmons runs around and creates great opportunities for his teammates, and he also doesn't hold the ball, keeps that thing moving like a hot potato. And Mitchell's an awesome driver with a perfect NBA wing's body, effortless shot creator with a lot of Wade to him. Jealous.

Anyway long story short is that it seems really stupid to split hairs about who's better, and I'm hanging up my laces in that argument. I love the advanced #s and the rhetoric as much as anyone else but at this point it's tired and leading us into some of the worst debates about great players I've ever seen. If you don't think either of them is really really good, you're missing the obvious, as are all these weak lines about how one little advantage one has over the other means everything.

Plus I don't think Rookie Of The Year is about who the better player is, otherwise SImmons would be the only player in contention.
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Re: The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III 

Post#2060 » by bebopdeluxe » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:00 pm

HotelVitale wrote:Got to watch a full half of both Simmons and Mitchell last night, since the Sixers blew out the Magic (and my UM Wolverines were annihilating A&M too). Simmons runs around and creates great opportunities for his teammates, and he also doesn't hold the ball, keeps that thing moving like a hot potato. And Mitchell's an awesome driver with a perfect NBA wing's body, effortless shot creator with a lot of Wade to him. Jealous.

Anyway long story short is that it seems really stupid to split hairs about who's better, and I'm hanging up my laces in that argument. I love the advanced #s and the rhetoric as much as anyone else but at this point it's tired and leading us into some of the worst debates about great players I've ever seen. If you don't think either of them is really really good, you're missing the obvious, as are all these weak lines about how one little advantage one has over the other means everything.


At the risk of being a bit cheeky, perhaps Mitchell's "effortless shot creation" is partly because he has never met a shot he didn't like.

:D

Speaking as a Simmons supporter, I fully respect what Mitchell has done, and appreciate his role in the Jazz's efforts to get into the playoffs. He is a great young player, and has All-Star potential, no doubt. I would just push back somewhat on the "splitting hairs" narrative though, as the statistical gap between what Simmons has done this season and what Mitchell is not "splitting hairs". The gap is real and it is substantial.

It is not denigrating Mitchell's accomplishments and potential to say that Simmons has been the better player. Whether you appreciate statistics or not, the numbers (both "counting" stats and advanced analytics) are pretty one-sided. My problem is, while I have written several posts going into great detail about the statistical differences between the two players, the response from Mitchell's supporters contains very little in the way of concrete statistical support for their position.

I am not talking about "Mitchell has more 25-point games for any rookie since whatever season" type stuff (I can respond with the "most triple doubles" or the "only the third player other than Magic or Big O in the 1000/500/500 club as a rookie stuff). I simply want an argument for Mitchell over Simmons that contains more than POINTZ!!! or OMG WHAT A DUNK...because I could come up with a pretty dope mixtape of what Simmons has done this season as well. Anybody that has watched Simmons play knows that if he wanted to score 4-5 more points a game he could...but that is not who he is. He is the POINT GUARD - not the volume-shooting wing scorer - so it is not surprising that he has scored less than Mitchell.

Simmons has an arguably more important role on his team (point guard). His statistical advantage over Mitchell is real and it is substantial. He will likely get All-Defensive Team votes - which speaks to what he does on the other side of the ball (in addition to what the analytics say). His team will win 20+ more games this season than last season, and is likely a top-4 team in the East.

Mitchell has had a great season, and he is a great player...but to me, this call is not "splitting hairs". And - again - if Mitchell supporters have a non-subjective, statistically/analytically-based argument on why Mitchell deserves to be Rookie of the Year over Simmons, I would love to read it.

Thanks.

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