Tracking the Playoff Race

[Moonbeam]

I got bored and threw together some code to shed a light on the playoff race, and thought I'd share in case it's useful.

As a snapshot, I've got SRS and SOS metrics adjusted for homecourt advantage and overtime to characterize team strength and strength of schedule. Because of changing rosters due to trades, injuries, and free agent signings, I've also included SRS and SOS information based on the last 28 days of play. If people are interested, I can keep this updated until the playoff race is over.

Code: Select all

 Seed Team  W  L    SRS    SOS W28 L28  SRS28   RSOS RSOS28
    1  TOR 59 22   7.43  -0.52  10   5   3.84   2.06   3.03
    2  BOS 54 27   3.18  -0.27   8   6  -0.74  -5.65  -2.97
    3  PHI 51 30   3.96  -0.16  15   1   9.71  -2.17  -2.46
    4  CLE 50 31   0.81  -0.28  12   3   5.26  -5.77  -6.59
    5  IND 48 34   1.17  -0.19   9   6   1.67    NaN    NaN
    6  MIL 44 37  -0.11  -0.23   8   6  -0.40   6.02  11.77
    7  MIA 43 38   0.01  -0.39   7   6   0.97   5.37   1.78
    8  WAS 43 38   0.68  -0.02   5   9  -1.92  -3.01  -7.38


Key:

Spoiler:

SRS: full season SRS
SOS: full season strength of schedule
W28: wins over the past 28 days
L28: losses over the past 28 days
SRS28: SRS over the past 28 days
RSOS: remaining strength of schedule based on full-season SRS
RSOS28: remaining strength of schedule based on SRS over the past 28 days

Head to Head:

Code: Select all

W\L BOS CLE IND MIA MIL PHI TOR WAS
BOS     1-2 2-2 1-2 2-2 3-1 2-2 1-3
CLE 2-1     1-3 2-1 3-1 2-2 2-1 3-1
IND 2-2 3-1     2-2 3-1 2-1 1-3 1-2
MIA 2-1 1-2 2-2     3-0 2-2 1-1 2-2
MIL 2-2 1-3 1-3 0-3     2-1 1-2 2-2
PHI 1-3 2-2 1-2 2-2 1-2     1-3 2-2
TOR 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-1 2-1 3-1     2-2
WAS 3-1 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-2 2-2 2-2     


Other Tiebreaking Data:

Code: Select all

 Team DW DL CW CL EPW EPL WPW WPL   MOV
  TOR 12  4 40 11  14  10   9   7  7.96
  BOS 11  4 32 19  12  14  10   6  3.47
  PHI  9  7 33 18  10  16   9   7  4.12
  CLE 11  5 35 16  15  10   5  11  1.10
  IND 10  6 32 20  14  12   6  10  1.38
  MIL  6 10 27 24   9  16   8   8  0.12
  MIA 11  5 30 21  13  10   3  13  0.40
  WAS  8  7 28 23  14  13   7   9  0.70


Key:

Spoiler:

DW: division wins
DL: division losses
CW: conference wins
CL: conference losses
EPW: wins over Eastern playoff teams
EPL: losses to Eastern playoff teams
WPW: wins over Western playoff teams
WPL: losses to Western playoff teams
MOV: average margin of victory

Code: Select all

 Seed Team  W  L    SRS    SOS W28 L28  SRS28   RSOS RSOS28
    1  HOU 65 16   8.51  -0.22  12   2   6.65  -4.86  -3.00
    2  GSW 58 24   5.78  -0.18   7   8  -3.39    NaN    NaN
    3  UTA 48 33   4.58   0.12  11   3  10.85   4.55   5.48
    4  POR 48 33   2.50  -0.02   7   7   3.42   2.52   8.80
    5  NOP 47 34   1.18   0.19   9   6   4.11   1.12   4.80
    6  SAS 47 34   3.18  -0.05  10   4   6.85   3.23   6.17
    7  OKC 47 34   3.38   0.11   7   5   6.37  -7.83  -9.17
    8  MIN 46 35   2.32   0.13   7   6   0.38  -0.43   1.49
    9  DEN 46 35   1.63   0.04   9   5   3.54   4.37   2.44


Key:

Spoiler:

SRS: full season SRS
SOS: full season strength of schedule
W28: wins over the past 28 days
L28: losses over the past 28 days
SRS28: SRS over the past 28 days
RSOS: remaining strength of schedule based on full-season SRS
RSOS28: remaining strength of schedule based on SRS over the past 28 days

Head to Head:

Code: Select all

W\L DEN GSW HOU MIN NOP OKC POR SAS UTA
DEN     2-2 0-3 1-2 2-1 3-1 3-1 2-2 2-2
GSW 2-2     1-2 2-1 3-1 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-3
HOU 3-0 2-1     4-0 3-1 1-2 4-0 3-1 4-0
MIN 2-1 1-2 0-4     4-0 3-1 2-2 1-2 2-2
NOP 1-2 1-3 1-3 0-4     2-1 2-2 2-1 1-3
OKC 1-3 2-2 2-1 1-3 1-2     0-4 2-2 3-1
POR 1-3 2-1 0-4 2-2 2-2 4-0     1-2 1-2
SAS 2-2 1-3 1-3 2-1 1-2 2-2 2-1     1-3
UTA 2-2 3-1 0-4 2-2 3-1 1-3 2-1 3-1     


Other Tiebreaking Data:

Code: Select all

 Team DW DL CW CL EPW EPL WPW WPL   MOV
  HOU 12  4 41 10  11   5  21   5  8.74
  GSW 13  3 34 18  12   4  13  12  5.98
  UTA  7  8 34 17   7   9  14  13  4.47
  POR  8  7 30 21   7   9  12  13  2.52
  NOP  8  7 26 25  10   6   9  17  1.02
  SAS  9  6 29 22   7   9  10  15  3.22
  OKC  5 11 27 24  11   5  11  15  3.28
  MIN  9  6 33 18   6  10  13  13  2.19
  DEN  9  6 28 23   7   9  15  14  1.57


Key:

Spoiler:

DW: division wins
DL: division losses
CW: conference wins
CL: conference losses
EPW: wins over Eastern playoff teams
EPL: losses to Eastern playoff teams
WPW: wins over Western playoff teams
WPL: losses to Western playoff teams
MOV: average margin of victory

[Splashin]

So you're saying GSW vs Cavs finals #4 confirmed?

[Warriorfan]

Strength of schedule will be important after ASG

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/easternsosrg.html

[bwgood77]

I'm interested and think this is good to track. More interesting discussion now imo and more relevant for more fans than the MVP or ROY discussions so I'll sticky it too.

[RCM88x]

I think your H2H data is wrong, atleast for the East.

[Moonbeam]

So you're saying GSW vs Cavs finals #4 confirmed?

Well, these stats are useful for projecting playoff seeding, but not necessarily playoff outcomes. I could see GSW overtaking Houston in the standings and Cleveland maybe passing Bos.. Basically, yes. GSW vs Cavs confimed.

[Moonbeam]

I think your H2H data is wrong, atleast for the East.

Thanks for catching this! It should be fixed now.

[XxIronChainzxX]

Strength of schedule will be important after ASG

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/easternsosrg.html

Yes. It's something we've discussed a bit on the Raptors board - the distribution of the tanking Olympics team will impact the race for #1 in the East a fair bit. IMO, this is why people are counting out the Celtics too soon.

[THE J0KER]

For those who are most interested in a Western Conference tight #3-#10 race, on Denver Nuggets subforum here exist special sticky thread focused on that with standings updates and updates from 538.com site projections about teams final regular season W-L record and their chances (in %) to reach playoff https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

What a weird situation in the West playoff race. If we win our today showdown vs #1 Houston, we will be TOP5 for the first time in 2018. But if Denver loses today, we will be kicked at #8!?

Here is the link: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1635083&start=120

[ken6199]

I for one want to see the entire NW division make it.

[illuminati666]

Your solution to being bored was coding? Damn.

[Moonbeam]

Your solution to being bored was coding? Damn.

Yes.

Nothing like a good list of numbers to make me happy.

[Mylie10]

Your solution to being bored was coding? Damn.

Mine is REALGM

[Ugly0598]

Meh I dunno about Utah making it over the Pelicans. A week or two ago they looked great, but they don't look the same. Their schedule is fairly easy though.

[JXL]

Detroit doesn't make it.
Philadelphia is a 6th seed.
Washington gets HCA.
Boston gets the #1 seed.

[MHeatfan]

3-8 in both conferences very interesting. Coulr be some compelling first round match ups. Cavs vs Bucks. That would be fun. OKC vs Houston/GSW. Hopefully it will add some excitement to the playoffs.

[KnightofHyrule]

I for one want to see the entire NW division make it.

So....in other words you're hating on the Pelicans. PELICANS FANS LOOK!! ken6199 is a Pelicans hater!

[ken6199]

I for one want to see the entire NW division make it.

So....in other words you're hating on the Pelicans. PELICANS FANS LOOK!! ken6199 is a Pelicans hater!

I think they all knew... my history of hating on New Orleans dates back to 2010 when they took away our franchise player, Trevor Ariza.

[Biased_Fan6425]

Lets Go lakers!

[GreenRiddler]

Spurs have a bad road record and 8 of their last 20 games are on the road. Minny is also bad on the road 8 of thier last 17 games are on the road.

Denver is a pitiful 9-19 on the road and 13 of their last 21 games are on the road with a brutal 7 game road trip that includes the Raptors Thunder Heat Wizards and Sixers. The Nugggets are so screwed.