RealGM

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:11 am**

I got bored and threw together some code to shed a light on the playoff race, and thought I'd share in case it's useful.

As a snapshot, I've got SRS and SOS metrics adjusted for homecourt advantage and overtime to characterize team strength and strength of schedule. Because of changing rosters due to trades, injuries, and free agent signings, I've also included SRS and SOS information based on the last 28 days of play. If people are interested, I can keep this updated until the playoff race is over.

Code: Select all

 Seed Team  W  L    SRS    SOS W28 L28  SRS28   RSOS RSOS28
    1  TOR 59 22   7.43  -0.52  10   5   3.84   2.06   3.03
    2  BOS 54 27   3.18  -0.27   8   6  -0.74  -5.65  -2.97
    3  PHI 51 30   3.96  -0.16  15   1   9.71  -2.17  -2.46
    4  CLE 50 31   0.81  -0.28  12   3   5.26  -5.77  -6.59
    5  IND 48 34   1.17  -0.19   9   6   1.67    NaN    NaN
    6  MIL 44 37  -0.11  -0.23   8   6  -0.40   6.02  11.77
    7  MIA 43 38   0.01  -0.39   7   6   0.97   5.37   1.78
    8  WAS 43 38   0.68  -0.02   5   9  -1.92  -3.01  -7.38

Key:

Spoiler:

Head to Head:

Code: Select all

W\L BOS CLE IND MIA MIL PHI TOR WAS 
BOS     1-2 2-2 1-2 2-2 3-1 2-2 1-3 
CLE 2-1     1-3 2-1 3-1 2-2 2-1 3-1 
IND 2-2 3-1     2-2 3-1 2-1 1-3 1-2 
MIA 2-1 1-2 2-2     3-0 2-2 1-1 2-2 
MIL 2-2 1-3 1-3 0-3     2-1 1-2 2-2 
PHI 1-3 2-2 1-2 2-2 1-2     1-3 2-2 
TOR 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-1 2-1 3-1     2-2 
WAS 3-1 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-2 2-2 2-2

Other Tiebreaking Data:

Code: Select all

 Team DW DL CW CL EPW EPL WPW WPL   MOV
  TOR 12  4 40 11  14  10   9   7  7.96
  BOS 11  4 32 19  12  14  10   6  3.47
  PHI  9  7 33 18  10  16   9   7  4.12
  CLE 11  5 35 16  15  10   5  11  1.10
  IND 10  6 32 20  14  12   6  10  1.38
  MIL  6 10 27 24   9  16   8   8  0.12
  MIA 11  5 30 21  13  10   3  13  0.40
  WAS  8  7 28 23  14  13   7   9  0.70

Key:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

 Seed Team  W  L    SRS    SOS W28 L28  SRS28   RSOS RSOS28
    1  HOU 65 16   8.51  -0.22  12   2   6.65  -4.86  -3.00
    2  GSW 58 24   5.78  -0.18   7   8  -3.39    NaN    NaN
    3  UTA 48 33   4.58   0.12  11   3  10.85   4.55   5.48
    4  POR 48 33   2.50  -0.02   7   7   3.42   2.52   8.80
    5  NOP 47 34   1.18   0.19   9   6   4.11   1.12   4.80
    6  SAS 47 34   3.18  -0.05  10   4   6.85   3.23   6.17
    7  OKC 47 34   3.38   0.11   7   5   6.37  -7.83  -9.17
    8  MIN 46 35   2.32   0.13   7   6   0.38  -0.43   1.49
    9  DEN 46 35   1.63   0.04   9   5   3.54   4.37   2.44

Key:

Spoiler:

Head to Head:

Code: Select all

W\L DEN GSW HOU MIN NOP OKC POR SAS UTA 
DEN     2-2 0-3 1-2 2-1 3-1 3-1 2-2 2-2 
GSW 2-2     1-2 2-1 3-1 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-3 
HOU 3-0 2-1     4-0 3-1 1-2 4-0 3-1 4-0 
MIN 2-1 1-2 0-4     4-0 3-1 2-2 1-2 2-2 
NOP 1-2 1-3 1-3 0-4     2-1 2-2 2-1 1-3 
OKC 1-3 2-2 2-1 1-3 1-2     0-4 2-2 3-1 
POR 1-3 2-1 0-4 2-2 2-2 4-0     1-2 1-2 
SAS 2-2 1-3 1-3 2-1 1-2 2-2 2-1     1-3 
UTA 2-2 3-1 0-4 2-2 3-1 1-3 2-1 3-1

Other Tiebreaking Data:

Code: Select all

 Team DW DL CW CL EPW EPL WPW WPL   MOV
  HOU 12  4 41 10  11   5  21   5  8.74
  GSW 13  3 34 18  12   4  13  12  5.98
  UTA  7  8 34 17   7   9  14  13  4.47
  POR  8  7 30 21   7   9  12  13  2.52
  NOP  8  7 26 25  10   6   9  17  1.02
  SAS  9  6 29 22   7   9  10  15  3.22
  OKC  5 11 27 24  11   5  11  15  3.28
  MIN  9  6 33 18   6  10  13  13  2.19
  DEN  9  6 28 23   7   9  15  14  1.57

Key:

Spoiler:

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:26 am**

So you're saying GSW vs Cavs finals #4 confirmed?

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:58 am**

Strength of schedule will be important after ASG

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/easternsosrg.html

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:07 am**

I'm interested and think this is good to track. More interesting discussion now imo and more relevant for more fans than the MVP or ROY discussions so I'll sticky it too.

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:08 am**

I think your H2H data is wrong, atleast for the East.

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:13 am**

Splashin wrote:So you're saying GSW vs Cavs finals #4 confirmed?

Well, these stats are useful for projecting playoff seeding, but not necessarily playoff outcomes. I could see GSW overtaking Houston in the standings and Cleveland maybe passing Bos.. Basically, yes. GSW vs Cavs confimed. :lol:

Posted: **Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:18 am**

RCM88x wrote:I think your H2H data is wrong, atleast for the East.

Thanks for catching this! It should be fixed now.

Posted: **Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:31 pm**

Warriorfan wrote:Strength of schedule will be important after ASG

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/easternsosrg.html

Yes. It's something we've discussed a bit on the Raptors board - the distribution of the tanking Olympics team will impact the race for #1 in the East a fair bit. IMO, this is why people are counting out the Celtics too soon.

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:32 am**

For those who are most interested in a Western Conference tight #3-#10 race, on Denver Nuggets subforum here exist special sticky thread focused on that with standings updates and updates from 538.com site projections about teams final regular season W-L record and their chances (in %) to reach playoff https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

THE J0KER wrote:

What a weird situation in the West playoff race. If we win our today showdown vs #1 Houston, we will be TOP5 for the first time in 2018. But if Denver loses today, we will be kicked at #8!?

Here is the link: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1635083&start=120

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:08 am**

I for one want to see the entire NW division make it.

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:13 am**

Your solution to being bored was coding? Damn.

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:15 am**

illuminati666 wrote:Your solution to being bored was coding? Damn.

Yes.

Nothing like a good list of numbers to make me happy. :lol:

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:19 am**

illuminati666 wrote:Your solution to being bored was coding? Damn.

Mine is REALGM

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:58 am**

Meh I dunno about Utah making it over the Pelicans. A week or two ago they looked great, but they don't look the same. Their schedule is fairly easy though.

Posted: **Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:15 pm**

Detroit doesn't make it.
Philadelphia is a 6th seed.
Washington gets HCA.
Boston gets the #1 seed.

Posted: **Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:28 pm**

3-8 in both conferences very interesting. Coulr be some compelling first round match ups. Cavs vs Bucks. That would be fun. OKC vs Houston/GSW. Hopefully it will add some excitement to the playoffs.

Posted: **Thu Mar 1, 2018 4:40 am**

ken6199 wrote:I for one want to see the entire NW division make it.

So....in other words you're hating on the Pelicans. PELICANS FANS LOOK!! ken6199 is a Pelicans hater!

Posted: **Thu Mar 1, 2018 2:10 pm**

KnightofHyrule wrote:
ken6199 wrote:I for one want to see the entire NW division make it.

So....in other words you're hating on the Pelicans. PELICANS FANS LOOK!! ken6199 is a Pelicans hater!

I think they all knew... my history of hating on New Orleans dates back to 2010 when they took away our franchise player, Trevor Ariza.

Posted: **Fri Mar 2, 2018 3:00 am**

Lets Go lakers!

Posted: **Fri Mar 2, 2018 7:19 am**

Spurs have a bad road record and 8 of their last 20 games are on the road. Minny is also bad on the road 8 of thier last 17 games are on the road.

Denver is a pitiful 9-19 on the road and 13 of their last 21 games are on the road with a brutal 7 game road trip that includes the Raptors Thunder Heat Wizards and Sixers. The Nugggets are so screwed.

RealGM

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