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jlokine wrote:dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
dockingsched wrote:jlokine wrote:dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
Totally different risk/reward equation for GMs to consider with a talent like a Embiid.
His long-term outlook remains less clear. There have been cases of players undergoing disc-related surgeries and still performing at a high-level. Danilo Gallinari and Al Harrington both went on to have productive NBA careers after back surgery while Dwight Howard remains a looming presence after a microdiscectomy in 2012. However, a quick look through the InStreetClothes.com NBA Injury Database reveals that nearly three out of every four players to undergo disc-related surgery report additional back problems at some point during their career with several players requiring a subsequent procedure.
FNQ wrote:dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
it's a great gamble if you know the usual process of this injury/surgery, actually.
Because this the 4th thread about this since the draft, I'm just gonna copy/link this and be done with it. If people chose to be driven by buzzwords from media types looking for clicks, that's their choice:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1717421#p66983713**CAUTION**
This is gonna be long and medical and I'm even gonna be bored writing it, so..
First off, don't buy that he's redshirting. This does 2 things: lowers fan expectations, and basically tells Porter not to rush back. Worried about his back spasms leading into the draft? Don't. I'll explain why.
So the back is broken into 4 areas - cervical, thoracic, lumbar and saccral. Lumbar is the lower back and usually associated with sciatica, which can cause pain and numbness down the leg. Porter apparently had it faintly, and still might evidenced by his limp at the draft, but that's not a big issue at this stage.
Has microdiscectomy surgery. This is the most benign of disc herniation surgeries. They essentially take off the outer layer of the disc thats ruptured that cant be put back together, seal the disc, and let the body do its job and strengthen that now sealed layer around the disc. This takes about 3-4 weeks post-surgery and the only physical limitation is to not bend at the waist which would put stress on the newly healed disc.
But let me tell you - hours after the surgery, you feel AMAZING. That whole walking in pain with a dramatic limp? Gone. And if someone was carrying that baggage for 2 years.. it feels like you've been given a new life. And therein lies the problem - after 3-4 weeks of walking around but not being able to intensely exercise, you get antsy. As soon as week 4 hits - and I can only imagine this intensifies for someone entering the NBA draft - you start hitting the gym, hard. Running, lifting, swimming, whatever. Only problem is, your muscles have not been working very hard the past few months.. boom, muscle spasms. This would explain Porter not showing well in the NCAA and shutting down workouts. Overexertion doesnt damage the surgical process, but it can put your body into shock because its just not been doing that lately. If you're a high level athlete and you take 8 months off, you cant just jump back into it, whether youre 18 or 40.
So now let's talk rehab: Porter's surgery was 11/21/17. Typically, you give one month or so of no-bending, but insist they walk around to help prevent scar tissue. So say that brings us to January 1st, 2018. Now you have to being slowly training your body to regain its strength. Typically this is a 6-8 week venture, as you strengthen your core muscles along with lightly tuning your legs (no arms/shoulders yet, except minimal stretching). Now March 1st. Strengthen your leg muscles while going to a light workout in your arms. That would bring us to May 1st.
But wait, because Porter returned to play March 8th. MARCH EIGHTH. There's no way he could have been even halfway done with the healing process by then. Played 2 games (3/8, 3/16) where he definitely looked out of sorts, but amazingly limber for someone in his position.
Now at May 1st, he should be in the arms/core part of rehab where he's now more comfortable with his back strength and is focused on improving muscle mass in arms and shoulders, going down to the core and back. But keep in mind this is someone who's already put too much strain on himself by returning early. His rehab is now in disarray and its very likely that returning to action that fast put some stress on his core and legs. This process would usually take another 6-8 weeks, and would in theory still be going on today. But because he was basically trying to prove to teams he was healthy, he likely overexerted and put too much strain on his hips as a means of taking stress of his back, thus causing his latest injury. Unless that turns out to be serious, what we have here is a case of:
- Kid hurts back at 16 but thinks nothing of it, because he's a freakin kid. Waits for it to heal, doesnt treat it like the severe injury its becoming
- Kid plays at 17, no issues
- Kid can't play at 18 because of improperly treated back issue. Finally gets correct surgery
- Kid rushes back so he can be in the NBA draft, does poorly
- Kid overexerts to show his poor play isn't who he is, injures self (supposedly minorly)
So I say all that to say this: if the scouts were right on him in HS, and he truly is this blue-chip prospect, then there's nothing in his medicals that would lead anyone overly familiar with this process to believe that he's at any elevated long-term risk. Now that he's drafted and the dog and pony show is over, the Nuggets are letting him rehab at his own pace (smart) while lowering fan expectations (also smart) and will let him get his body back before unleashing him. BUT, I will say that waiting until he's 100% might be detrimental to his long-term development. I'd deploy him at around 80% - something with a minimal chance of minor injuries - because he would be going up against NBA caliber athletes at 80%, thus forcing him to develop some craftiness and good mechanics in order to be successful. That way when, in the next season, when he's 100% ready to rock, he has all that experience in his back pocket, and will be an even more dangerous weapon.
FNQ wrote:dockingsched wrote:jlokine wrote:
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
Totally different risk/reward equation for GMs to consider with a talent like a Embiid.
Agreed here. Embiid had a college career to base his draft status on, Porter did not. Embiid had at least some full workouts before injuring himself, Porter did not.
That said, Embiid's surgery is much more prone to long-term issues than Porter's. Its an interesting comp between the two, but its far from being parallel.
jlokine wrote:FNQ wrote:dockingsched wrote:
Totally different risk/reward equation for GMs to consider with a talent like a Embiid.
Agreed here. Embiid had a college career to base his draft status on, Porter did not. Embiid had at least some full workouts before injuring himself, Porter did not.
That said, Embiid's surgery is much more prone to long-term issues than Porter's. Its an interesting comp between the two, but its far from being parallel.
let's say embiid has a derrick rose career and porter goes on to have a blake griffin career, would you still draft porter, in this case, at all?
dockingsched wrote:jlokine wrote:dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
Totally different risk/reward equation for GMs to consider with a talent like a Embiid.
The Rebel wrote:jlokine wrote:FNQ wrote:
Agreed here. Embiid had a college career to base his draft status on, Porter did not. Embiid had at least some full workouts before injuring himself, Porter did not.
That said, Embiid's surgery is much more prone to long-term issues than Porter's. Its an interesting comp between the two, but its far from being parallel.
let's say embiid has a derrick rose career and porter goes on to have a blake griffin career, would you still draft porter, in this case, at all?
Are you serious? A guy has a career like Bkake Griffin and you question whether teams would draft him at all? I could see the argument not to do it in the top 5, but a career like Griffin outside of the top 5 is considerably better than expected production from those picks.
dockingsched wrote:jlokine wrote:dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
Totally different risk/reward equation for GMs to consider with a talent like a Embiid.
dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
jlokine wrote:dockingsched wrote:It’s an unnecessary gamble in an industry where you have no idea if you’ll still have your job in 2-3 years to reap the rewards of your risk.
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
jlokine wrote:dockingsched wrote:jlokine wrote:
so you wouldnt have drafted embiid?
Totally different risk/reward equation for GMs to consider with a talent like a Embiid.
and i just wanted to say, as an nba GM, making team decisions based on keeping your job is the difference between a hinkie and a colangelo.
bigbreakfast wrote:because more often than not a middle of the 1st round pick ends up being a non game changer. ppl really overestimate how many actually productive and impactful players each draft produces. for a team like denver it was a gamble with high reward and relatively low risk, without any obvious game changing players left in the draft. I don't know why people have a hard time wrapping their head around this.
aznsk91 wrote:just a very small note, but. a 14th pick in each draft is not going to have the same value in every draft. I believe the 2018 draft was a very deep draft, and I believe there are going to many 'steals' in this draft, and many players that carve out nice careers even going deep into the second round. so, its not really low risk vs high reward, but more like low/medium risk vs high reward. again, not interjecting at all about the Michael porter debate, just wanted to point out that with a great scouting department (which Denver has) and a deep draft, it is possible to draft a star or a very good player at the 14th pick.
