RealGM

2018-19 NBA TOP100

ESPN, CBS, and SI sports media published this week their NBA TOP100 ranking. Here is NBA TOP100 ranking of all listed players based on average ranking from these 3 lists. If some player is not listed in all of 3 polls, he gets virtual 105 ranking where he is not listed.



2018-19 NBA Teams Rank
(based on the individual rank of their players)

In the far right column, you can see how many *points* each average ranking worth. This virtual value is based on synthetic math formula which on the proper way following changes in estimated players values according to their NBA rank (12 + 1/A - √A, where A is average ranking). So, the difference in value between #6 and #7 is much bigger than between #26 and #27, while the difference between #86 and #87 almost not exist... etc... The problem with unranked players is solved with additional 1pt for each unranked starter and 0.5pts for every unranked bench player (12 man roster is used). For example, Detroit has 3 ranked TOP100 players, so they get additional 2x1pt for starters and 7x0.5pts for unranked bench players (5.5 overall), while Boston with 7 ranked TOP100 players for their unranked 5 bench players get additional 5x0.5=2.5pts.
Here are 2018-19 TEAM RANKINGS based on the projected 2018-19 individual value of their players:

1. (W1) GSW - 48.06 (6)
2. (E1) BOS - 42.32 (7)
3. (W2) HOU - 36.13 (5)
4. (E2) PHI - 34.53 (6)
5. (W3) OKC - 31.95 (5)
6. (E3) TOR - 30.76 (7)
7. (W4) UTA - 30.56 (5)
8. (W5) DEN - 30.15 (5)
9. (W6) MIN - 28.78 (5)
10. (W7) NOP - 28.50 (4)
11. (E4) MIL - 28.13 (5)
12. (W8) LAL - 27.64 (5)
13. (E5) WAS - 26.10 (4)
14. (E6) IND - 25.54 (6)
15. (W9) POR - 25.09 (4)
16. (W10) SAS - 22.48 (4)
17. (E7) MIA - 19.51 (6)
18. (W11) MEM - 18.92 (3)
19. (E8) DET - 18.51 (3)
20. (W12) DAL - 18.06 (4)
21. (W13) PHO - 17.58 (4)
22. (W14) LAC - 15.84 (3)
23. (E9) CHA - 15.72 (2)
24. (E10) NYK - 15.01 (3)
25. (E11) ORL - 14.62 (3)
26. (E12) CLE - 14.02 (1)
27. (E13) CHI - 10.98 (1)
28. (E14) BKN - 10.98 (2)
29. (E15) ATL - 10.33 (2)
30. (W15) SAC - ' 9.49 (1)

Djusted TOP25 Rank with RealGM TOP25 Poll
RealGM TOP25 rank is presented here (green column), but not counted for average rank. But someone already opened such thread today NBA Rank TOP25 ESPN+SI+CBS+RealGM where results of RealGM poll are also counted.

SpreeS wrote:1 Lebron 4pts (4)
2 Durant 10pts (4)
3 Curry 12pts (4)
4 Harden 17pts (4)
5 Davis 18pts (4)
6 Giannis 25pts (4)
7 Westbrook 30pts (4)
8 Kawhi 32pts (4)
9 Paul 37pts (4)
10 Embiid 39pts (4)
11 Butler 47pts (4)
12 George 53pts (4)
13 Lillard 54pts (4)
14 Jokic 62pts (4)
15 Green 64pts (4)
16 Irving 65pts (4)
17 Oladipo 65pts (4)
18 KAT 71pts (4)
19 Gobert 74pts (4)
20 Klay 77pts (4)
21 Simmons 59pts (3)
22 Horford 61pts (3)
23 Lowry 64pts (3)
24 Wall 69pts (3)
25 LMA 46pts (2)

Most interesting about RealGM TOP25 is that it includes exactly the same 25 players ranked TOP25 by average ESPN, SI, and CBS ranking!

They really should omit rookies from the list.

Nice work, props to you. I agree with Harden over AD which we didn’t see everywhere

I think I like ESPN's list the best :cringe:

Boston is the team to beat, they have the starting "BIG 5" with kyrie brown tatum hayward horford, with rozier, smart, morris, baynes off the bench.

Gobert has an interesting variance; 14, 14, 23, 23. Putting him outside the top 20 is pretty criminal

Nice work. Thanks a lot.

It also shows that realgm doesn't comparatively seem that bad at ranking (top) players.

Great job.

All 5 NW division teams are in the top 15. 5,7,8,9,15. Brutal!

Fultz has no place on these lists at this point.

RCM88x wrote:I think I like ESPN's list the best :cringe:

When I read that I completely lost my s***. Well done.

While most of the players have a similar place where they should belong in every of 3 lists, or at least in two out of three ranks, some players very polarize experts. Examples of such 'controversial' players: Leonard(6-8-12), Irving(12-17-20), Horford(16-21-34), Mitchell(22-28-34), DeRozan(25-30-39), Tatum(24-33-39), Booker(31-36-50)... etc... Also, some players are not even TOP100 on one of the lists, but on one of the list, they are TOP66 (better 2/3) like Smart, Doncic, Valanciunas, Ariza, Tyreke, D.Murray.

The biggest surprise for me is team rankings based on the individual value of players. Very resembling NBA 'power rankings' which we see during offseason from different media and experts, which means that estimated individual quality of starting lineup is by far most important factor for team success prediction and projections. Coach, Bench, team chemistry... etc... is obviously almost non-factor for early predictions.

A couple things jumped out at me:

All of the lists severely under-rated most of the Wizards players.

The Celtics players rankings seemed all over the place. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward being extremely over-rated with Al Horford, Marcus Smart and (to a certain extent) Kyrie Irving being under-rated.

SI's list is pretty much a disgrace outside of the top 10. ESPN's 50-100 is pretty good, but it's top 40 makes no sense. CBS, ehhh.

Very interesting is to see all free agency contracts signed this summer for 2018-19 salary over $8M+, and compare it with these players 2018-19 "ranking":

$35,654,150 - HOU (#9) Chris Paul
$35,654,150 - LAL (#1) LeBron James
$30,560,700 - OKC (#11) Paul George
$30,000,000 - GSW (#2) Kevin Durant
$25,467,250 - DEN (#16) Nikola Jokic
$22,897,200 - DAL (#56) DeAndre Jordan
$21,590,909 - ORL (#49) Aaron Gordon
$20,000,000 - CHI (UNR) Jabari Parker
$19,500,000 - CHI (UNR) Zach LaVine
$16,900,000 - UTH (#65) Derrick Favors
$15,293,103 - HOU (#36) Clint Capela
$15,000,000 - PHX (#78) Trevor Ariza
$12,400,000 - IND (#84) Tyreke Evans
$12,250,000 - PHI (#62) JJ Redick
$12,000,000 - LAC (#114) Avery Bradley
$12,000,000 - LAL (#111) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
$11,830,358 - DEN (#70) Will Barton
$11,660,716 - BOS (#75) Marcus Smart
$11,111,111 - POR (#69) Jusuf Nurkic
$10,087,200 - SAS (UNR) Rudy Gay
$9,600,000 - UTH (UNR) Dante Exum
$9,000,000 - LAL (UNR) Rajon Rondo
$8,653,847 - OKC (UNR) Jerami Grant
$8,653,847 - TOR (#82) Fred VanVleet
$8,641,000 - MEM (#92) Kyle Anderson
$8,641,000 - NOP (#74) Julius Randle
$8,333,333 - BKN (UNR) Joe Harris
---------------------------------------------------
$5,337,000 - WAS (#89) Dwight Howard
$5,337,000 - GSW (#52) DeMarcus Cousins
$5,000,000 - DAL (#114) Dirk Nowitzki
$3,382,000 - MIL (#102) Brook Lopez

Shocking to see that both most lucrative deals for players not ranked into ESPN/CBS/SI TOP100 are done for the same team, Chicago Bulls.

Nice work! I agree with about 97% of compiled list.

This should be a regular exercise for all power rankings throughout the season.

LITTLE CORRECTION: Giannis is not ESPN#5, but tied #4 (together with Durant)!

BTW, ESPN presented in their list previous season rank:

30 players projected not to be TOP100 in 2017-18 are now projected to be TOP100 in 2018-19!

Most improved players (compared to ESPN 2017-18 projections and expectations) are:

9.(32) - Joel Embiid PHI (+23)
15.(78) - Victor Oladipo IND (+63)
18.(84) - Ben Simmons PHI (+66)
22.(NR) - Donovan Mitchell UTA (NEW)
24.(NR) - Jayson Tatum BOS (NEW)
26.(52) - Jrue Holiday NOP (+26)
31.(60) - Devin Booker PHO (+29)
36.(70) - Clint Capela HOU (+34)
37.(NR) - Jaylen Brown BOS (NEW)
43.(90) - Gary Harris DEN (+47)
45.(NR) - Jamal Murray DEN (NEW)
50.(88) - Nikola Mirotic NOP (+38)
53.(NR) - Joe Ingles UTA (NEW)
54.(NR) - Brandon Ingram LAL (NEW)
57.(NR) - Dario Saric PHI (NEW)
60.(NR) - Tobias Harris LAC (NEW)

Alright, I surrender. Your rankings are truly the ultimate rankings.

Got to say, RealGM did quite well, especially compared to the other lists.

Not bad at all.

- Durant over Curry seems correct to me. Curry is more likeable, but Durant is a tad better.
- Westbrook seems to get the love he deserves.
- Paul George is probably getting love from memories of him pre-injury. I don't think he's as good as he's ranked here.
- Jokic seems a bit high to me, but he is still improving, so maybe not.
- Green is well loved. He does a ton. But I still think he's too high here.
- Towns is too high for me. Both he and Gobert are one dimensional, but Gobert's dimension is much more important (and I am one of the last post player lovers on the board).
- Simmons seems too high to me. Maybe it's my homer glasses and the Mitchell rookie stuff, but he needs to complete his game before he gets that kind of listing.


Also, I knew Utah was at a talent disparity against the Thunder last year, but boy, this list makes me that much more proud of the Round 1 spanking we administered.