WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz

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Who wins this series and in how many?

Rockets in 4
36
9%
Rockets in 5
97
24%
Rockets in 6
129
32%
Rockets in 7
46
12%
Jazz in 4
3
1%
Jazz in 5
3
1%
Jazz in 6
48
12%
Jazz in 7
36
9%
 
Total votes: 398

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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#761 » by CS707 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:43 pm

ken6199 wrote:For DPOY it's Gobert. It's a regular season award and the votes are already submitted, not sure why some people still have problems with it. I hate when people kneejerk with recency bias and throw a season's work completely out of the window.


It's not really recency bias when people expected this to happen though.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#762 » by ken6199 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:17 pm

gst8 wrote:
ken6199 wrote:For DPOY it's Gobert. It's a regular season award and the votes are already submitted, not sure why some people still have problems with it. I hate when people kneejerk with recency bias and throw a season's work completely out of the window.


It's not really recency bias when people expected this to happen though.


I think most expected this series to be competitive, some even thought Utah can pull out an upset. The poll reflected that. Despite all the defensive indecisiveness, Utah also shot the ball very poorly which made it look a lot worse and Houston was playing the best ball coming into this and honestly I don't even know if they have any room for improvement except for those turnovers.

Gobert was unfairly criticized in this thread. He is put into a situation very hard for him to succeed in considering Utah's defensive strategy and how otherworldly Houston were playing in game 1 and 2 - you can replace Gobert with a prime time Dwight and it would still be about the same result.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#763 » by TheProfessor » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:07 pm

Harden is actually not that great a 3 point shooter, I think he shoots something like 36% with his stepback 3. Which is like 54% true shooting, which is under league average. What makes Harden scary is when he gets to the paint and starts alley ooping to capela/faried or just shooting 60% plus all the fouls he draws. Utah/the nba needs to switch everything with Harden and let him shoot 3's LIGHTLY contested, if you can make Harden take a step back and basically shoot off balance you have done your job. When he steps back, you are not contesting the shot regardless. If he hits 6 of 12 threes, well you tried. But statistically over a 7 game series you will be alright.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#764 » by LoneyROY » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:16 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Harden is actually not that great a 3 point shooter, I think he shoots something like 36% with his stepback 3. Which is like 54% true shooting, which is under league average. What makes Harden scary is when he gets to the paint and starts alley ooping to capela/faried or just shooting 60% plus all the fouls he draws. Utah/the nba needs to switch everything with Harden and let him shoot 3's LIGHTLY contested, if you can make Harden take a step back and basically shoot off balance you have done your job. When he steps back, you are not contesting the shot regardless. If he hits 6 of 12 threes, well you tried. But statistically over a 7 game series you will be alright.


There's the problem. You can't MAKE Harden take a step-back 3.

If they switch everything, Harden can just beat his individual man off the dribble any time he wants. Yes, he will shoot stepbacks 3s, but when and where he wants to. James has moved passed a level where individual defense can dictate his offense.

End of the day, it just boils to down to Harden making or missing the shots he takes, b/c he's going to get to his spot on the court regardless.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#765 » by JimmyRustle » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:21 pm

People saying Gobert brings no offense but he brings the same value as Clint Capela on the offensive side lmao. They both score the same way, off of lobs, putbacks/dunks. Utah at home with their crowd will hopefully make this a competitive series but if Houston steals game 3 it's over.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#766 » by scrabbarista » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:23 pm

PierceFan4ever wrote:Utah has to be the most disappointing team so far in the playoffs. I don’t expect them to win any of the first 2 games but damn down near 30 at half? They are usuallly a gritty bunch that makes you work. These 2 teams went to 6 games last season.


5 games. 4-1. And Houston won their four wins by an average of 14.5 points. The series was a cakewalk last season.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#767 » by scrabbarista » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:26 pm

Red8911 wrote:Why does harden need to get a triple double? They left him out there longer with the bench so he can get it. That’s ridiculous. Triple doubles are so common now they shouldn’t be a big deal anymore


I don't think they ever should've been a big deal.

Otoh, it's the third in his (playoff) career, so it's still special - in a (meaningless) way.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#768 » by SK21209 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:28 pm

That late season loss to OKC may end up working great for them. The Jazz just can't match up with them and getting the Warriors a round earlier seems like a blessing in disguise at this point.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#769 » by DROB27 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:28 pm

ken6199 wrote:
gst8 wrote:
ken6199 wrote:For DPOY it's Gobert. It's a regular season award and the votes are already submitted, not sure why some people still have problems with it. I hate when people kneejerk with recency bias and throw a season's work completely out of the window.


It's not really recency bias when people expected this to happen though.


I think most expected this series to be competitive, some even thought Utah can pull out an upset. The poll reflected that. Despite all the defensive indecisiveness, Utah also shot the ball very poorly which made it look a lot worse and Houston was playing the best ball coming into this and honestly I don't even know if they have any room for improvement except for those turnovers.

Gobert was unfairly criticized in this thread. He is put into a situation very hard for him to succeed in considering Utah's defensive strategy and how otherworldly Houston were playing in game 1 and 2 - you can replace Gobert with a prime time Dwight and it would still be about the same result.


Tbh most people on here probably haven’t watched the jazz that much and assumed they were better then they actually are .

Me personality? I knew Houston would dominate this series.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#770 » by CS707 » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:39 pm

ken6199 wrote:
gst8 wrote:
ken6199 wrote:For DPOY it's Gobert. It's a regular season award and the votes are already submitted, not sure why some people still have problems with it. I hate when people kneejerk with recency bias and throw a season's work completely out of the window.


It's not really recency bias when people expected this to happen though.


I think most expected this series to be competitive, some even thought Utah can pull out an upset. The poll reflected that. Despite all the defensive indecisiveness, Utah also shot the ball very poorly which made it look a lot worse and Houston was playing the best ball coming into this and honestly I don't even know if they have any room for improvement except for those turnovers.

Gobert was unfairly criticized in this thread. He is put into a situation very hard for him to succeed in considering Utah's defensive strategy and how otherworldly Houston were playing in game 1 and 2 - you can replace Gobert with a prime time Dwight and it would still be about the same result.


I guess some people, others figured Houston would handle Utah rather easily and that Gobert's inability to defend them would be a huge reason why. A more orthodox defensive strategy wouldn't make much of a difference IMO.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#771 » by TheProfessor » Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:02 pm

LoneyROY wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Harden is actually not that great a 3 point shooter, I think he shoots something like 36% with his stepback 3. Which is like 54% true shooting, which is under league average. What makes Harden scary is when he gets to the paint and starts alley ooping to capela/faried or just shooting 60% plus all the fouls he draws. Utah/the nba needs to switch everything with Harden and let him shoot 3's LIGHTLY contested, if you can make Harden take a step back and basically shoot off balance you have done your job. When he steps back, you are not contesting the shot regardless. If he hits 6 of 12 threes, well you tried. But statistically over a 7 game series you will be alright.


There's the problem. You can't MAKE Harden take a step-back 3.

If they switch everything, Harden can just beat his individual man off the dribble any time he wants. Yes, he will shoot stepbacks 3s, but when and where he wants to. James has moved passed a level where individual defense can dictate his offense.


End of the day, it just boils to down to Harden making or missing the shots he takes, b/c he's going to get to his spot on the court regardless.


You just have to entice Harden to shoot 3's, as crazy as it sounds sag a little. Harden isn't on the Lebron/Wade/Giannis tier where sagging on him basically creates a runway. Harden is a great athlete but gets by people more so with his wicked handle than supreme athleticism. The name of the game is keep Harden in front of you and just sag. Harden won't shoot midrange shots, he'll stepback and shoot 3's. It's much like what the Mavs did to Lebron in 2011, literally give him his weakest strength. Your never going to stop Harden, the goal is to just minimize his greatness without selling out. Harden is probably one of the greatest offensive forces the nba has seen, but I don't think his "shot making" ability is that elite outside of 0-3feet.

Btw this only applies to 1 to 4 pick and rolls, if it's a 1 and 5 pick roll hedge really hard or trap and let capela make decisions and hopefully you rotate back. No 5 in the nba has a chance against Harden, especially not Gobert.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#772 » by LoneyROY » Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:30 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
LoneyROY wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Harden is actually not that great a 3 point shooter, I think he shoots something like 36% with his stepback 3. Which is like 54% true shooting, which is under league average. What makes Harden scary is when he gets to the paint and starts alley ooping to capela/faried or just shooting 60% plus all the fouls he draws. Utah/the nba needs to switch everything with Harden and let him shoot 3's LIGHTLY contested, if you can make Harden take a step back and basically shoot off balance you have done your job. When he steps back, you are not contesting the shot regardless. If he hits 6 of 12 threes, well you tried. But statistically over a 7 game series you will be alright.


There's the problem. You can't MAKE Harden take a step-back 3.

If they switch everything, Harden can just beat his individual man off the dribble any time he wants. Yes, he will shoot stepbacks 3s, but when and where he wants to. James has moved passed a level where individual defense can dictate his offense.


End of the day, it just boils to down to Harden making or missing the shots he takes, b/c he's going to get to his spot on the court regardless.


You just have to entice Harden to shoot 3's, as crazy as it sounds sag a little. Harden isn't on the Lebron/Wade/Giannis tier where sagging on him basically creates a runway. Harden is a great athlete but gets by people more so with his wicked handle than supreme athleticism. The name of the game is keep Harden in front of you and just sag. Harden won't shoot midrange shots, he'll stepback and shoot 3's. It's much like what the Mavs did to Lebron in 2011, literally give him his weakest strength. Your never going to stop Harden, the goal is to just minimize his greatness without selling out. Harden is probably one of the greatest offensive forces the nba has seen, but I don't think his "shot making" ability is that elite outside of 0-3feet.

Btw this only applies to 1 to 4 pick and rolls, if it's a 1 and 5 pick roll hedge really hard or trap and let capela make decisions and hopefully you rotate back. No 5 in the nba has a chance against Harden, especially not Gobert.


Harden getting by people isn't just about sheer athleticism or handle, it's about quickness. Harden is quicker than LeBron and quicker than Giannis. Harden's blow-by ability off a standstill dribble or movement is second to none. It's his first step that dictates his ability to get by his defender virtually any time he wants.

At the same time, if you sag off him, his quickness combined with his strength will allow him to burst right into the defender's chest and push them where he wants to go.

As far as just giving him more or less open threes...his 3 point percentage is what it is, in part b/c he at times chooses difficult, contested 3s. If all of a sudden his defenders stop playing for his jumper and let him shoot without a strong contest, you don't think those percentages will rise?
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#773 » by Tritodian » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:15 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Harden is actually not that great a 3 point shooter, I think he shoots something like 36% with his stepback 3. Which is like 54% true shooting, which is under league average. What makes Harden scary is when he gets to the paint and starts alley ooping to capela/faried or just shooting 60% plus all the fouls he draws. Utah/the nba needs to switch everything with Harden and let him shoot 3's LIGHTLY contested, if you can make Harden take a step back and basically shoot off balance you have done your job. When he steps back, you are not contesting the shot regardless. If he hits 6 of 12 threes, well you tried. But statistically over a 7 game series you will be alright.


Harden actually shoots 38~39% on his stepback threes. It's his other threes that he's not great at. His stepback threes are pretty deadly given that most of them are off-the-dribble, high-degree-of-difficulty type of shots, and Harden still knocks them down at a very respectable rate.

I think last year it was even more effective; Harden shot 45% on his stepback threes during the regular season.

Image


So giving up on Harden's stepback three would be tantamount to committing suicide. Rather, make him take regular three pointers, which he shoots at 34~35% rate.

Also, shooting 37% while leading the league in three pointers made is still pretty impressive. Is Harden as great as Curry or Klay in that department? No, but he's still pretty great shooter, similar to Lillard tier, but probably a bit better.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#774 » by inquisitive » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:16 pm

I think Utah might have been better off playing Harden like they used to by letting Harden do his iso step back 3s instead of allowing him to drive the right. Harden seems to have gotten in a rhythm penetrating and finding the open guy along with taking step back 3s. That Bucks strategy is back firing.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#775 » by scrabbarista » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:57 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
LoneyROY wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Harden is actually not that great a 3 point shooter, I think he shoots something like 36% with his stepback 3. Which is like 54% true shooting, which is under league average. What makes Harden scary is when he gets to the paint and starts alley ooping to capela/faried or just shooting 60% plus all the fouls he draws. Utah/the nba needs to switch everything with Harden and let him shoot 3's LIGHTLY contested, if you can make Harden take a step back and basically shoot off balance you have done your job. When he steps back, you are not contesting the shot regardless. If he hits 6 of 12 threes, well you tried. But statistically over a 7 game series you will be alright.


There's the problem. You can't MAKE Harden take a step-back 3.

If they switch everything, Harden can just beat his individual man off the dribble any time he wants. Yes, he will shoot stepbacks 3s, but when and where he wants to. James has moved passed a level where individual defense can dictate his offense.


End of the day, it just boils to down to Harden making or missing the shots he takes, b/c he's going to get to his spot on the court regardless.


You just have to entice Harden to shoot 3's, as crazy as it sounds sag a little. Harden isn't on the Lebron/Wade/Giannis tier where sagging on him basically creates a runway. Harden is a great athlete but gets by people more so with his wicked handle than supreme athleticism. The name of the game is keep Harden in front of you and just sag. Harden won't shoot midrange shots, he'll stepback and shoot 3's. It's much like what the Mavs did to Lebron in 2011, literally give him his weakest strength. Your never going to stop Harden, the goal is to just minimize his greatness without selling out. Harden is probably one of the greatest offensive forces the nba has seen, but I don't think his "shot making" ability is that elite outside of 0-3feet.

Btw this only applies to 1 to 4 pick and rolls, if it's a 1 and 5 pick roll hedge really hard or trap and let capela make decisions and hopefully you rotate back. No 5 in the nba has a chance against Harden, especially not Gobert.


Eh. Not quite, on the threes. Harden's efficiency on his step-back this season was higher than the league-leading Warriors' offense. For most of the season, he was at about 39% on that step-back. I would assume it dropped off toward the end of the year, but considering that it never results in a turnover, even if it dropped all the way down to 36%, it's still not a good option for a defense, considering it also allows the Rockets role players to rest and conserve energy for defense.

The Bucks are the only team (I can remember - and I watched almost every Rockets game) to slow him down all season.

He won't be stopped as effectively as Milwaukee stopped him, because he and the Rockets will adapt, but the Bucks had the right idea - and, of course, the players to execute. They mostly took away the step-back and the eight-feet-and-in area, which are Harden's two greatest strengths. They also managed to cover the corners, IIRC, which is something Utah has been stupendously bad at in this series so far. (Giannis can cover the corner and the rim on a lot of plays.) Part of their success was due to the Rockets' role players missing shots, but they also did a fair job of covering those role players, considering how well they boxed in Harden.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#776 » by AthensBucks » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:33 pm

Gobert did a decent job defending giannis on their first matchup.Second game snyder had to pull him out.
He is a liability against houston,you cant play him against GS.Not buying the Gobert excuses,i like gobert he is a good defender but B2B DPOY?No way.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#777 » by asas » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:12 am

inquisitive wrote:I think Utah might have been better off playing Harden like they used to by letting Harden do his iso step back 3s instead of allowing him to drive the right. Harden seems to have gotten in a rhythm penetrating and finding the open guy along with taking step back 3s. That Bucks strategy is back firing.


You're right, this won't work. Giannis and Gobert are very different.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#778 » by LeonGenesis » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:22 am

Easy money on Houston Rockets....I guarantee they'll win it ALL...yep..favorite to win it all baby! :)

They look so dominant!!!!
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#779 » by ken6199 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:23 am

LeonGenesis wrote:Easy money on Houston Rockets....I guarantee they'll win it ALL...yep..favorite to win it all baby! :)

They look so dominant!!!!

Don't jinx. We haven't won an away game yet.
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Re: WCQF: P1 (4) Houston Rockets vs (5) Utah Jazz 

Post#780 » by Young_Star11 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:13 pm

Thoughts on lineup adjustments if you are the Jazz?

I'd move O'Neale and Crowder into the starting lineup for Ingles and Favors respectively.

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