Playoff Game 3 (2:0 down) - Easiest to Predict?

[mtron929]

I don't have the data with me but when a semi-decent team that is not completely overmatched is down 2:0 in a playoff series (with both losses happening in the road), can't you automatically pencil in that they will win game 3? Again, I don't have the data but unless we are talking about 1:8 seed or 2:7 seed first round of games, no one really gets swept and game 3 is when teams are most desperate. Is this the easiest playoff game to predict?

[eminence]

I don't have the data with me but when a semi-decent team that is not completely overmatched is down 2:0 in a playoff series (with both losses happening in the road), can't you automatically pencil in that they will win game 3? Again, I don't have the data but unless we are talking about 1:8 seed or 2:7 seed first round of games, no one really gets swept and game 3 is when teams are most desperate. Is this the easiest playoff game to predict?

In the last 20 series (from '05 to present) where home teams went up 2-0 in either the Conference Finals or NBA Finals they went on to sweep 4 times ('07 Finals, '13 WCF, '17 WCF, and '18 Finals). 2 other times they won game 3 before finishing their opponent in 5 ('15 Warriors vs Rockets and '17 Warriors vs Cavs).

So 14/20 for the lower seeds in similar recent scenarios, pretty good odds, but not quite a lock. Depends what odds they're giving I guess.

[laika]

I don't have the data with me but when a semi-decent team that is not completely overmatched is down 2:0 in a playoff series (with both losses happening in the road), can't you automatically pencil in that they will win game 3? Again, I don't have the data but unless we are talking about 1:8 seed or 2:7 seed first round of games, no one really gets swept and game 3 is when teams are most desperate. Is this the easiest playoff game to predict?

In the last 20 series (from '05 to present) where home teams went up 2-0 in either the Conference Finals or NBA Finals they went on to sweep 4 times ('07 Finals, '13 WCF, '17 WCF, and '18 Finals). 2 other times they won game 3 before finishing their opponent in 5 ('15 Warriors vs Rockets and '17 Warriors vs Cavs).

So 14/20 for the lower seeds in similar recent scenarios, pretty good odds, but not quite a lock. Depends what odds they're giving I guess.

Run it through the additional filter of a close game in the first two and you could get 14/18 or 78%.
As it is, Portland is favored by 2.5 points tonight. Based on history they should probably be favored by more. Warriors are an all time great road team though.

[Dupp]

I think the home team down 0-1 is the easiest to predict. Both scenarios are similar and it generally goes to the most motivated team with their backs against the wall. Huge mental aspect to it for both teams.

[Winsome Gerbil]

I am calling it right now: either the Raptors or Bucks are going to win it.

You heard it here first.