In Search Of An Equal: Looking Back At Warriors Playoffs

[Wammy Giveaway]

After the Trailblazers were swept, sealing a fifth Finals appearance that officially puts the Warriors in Red-Russell Celtics territory, Clippers guard Patrick Beverley tweeted:

Read on Twitter

Take into consideration:

1. Clippers came back from a 31-point deficit (playoff record) to tie the series early at 1-1 and prevent the inevitable sweep, then denied the experts of a conclusive 4-1 victory by winning Game 5 wire-to-wire. Both wins were on the road, in The Oracle. (Side note: teams coached by Doc Rivers have never been swept in the playoffs.)
2. Rockets protected home court, tying the series at 2-2, but when Kevin Durant got injured, Houston got too comfortable, underestimated the Warriors pre-Durant and ultimately choked. This series's margin of defeat was decided by 6 points or less.
3. Blazers got swept. Games 2 through 4, Warriors overcame double digit deficits above 15 points.

When the Warriors returned to the playoffs in the 2012-13 season (thanks Clippers), they went up against 10 unique western conference opponents, defeating every single one of them at least once. Excluding the Finals series, this is their dynasty backlog:

2013: 4-2 over Nuggets, 4-2 loss to Spurs
2014: 4-3 loss to Clippers
2015: 4-0 over Pelicans, 4-2 over Grizzlies, 4-1 over Rockets
2016: 4-1 over Rockets and Blazers, 4-3 over Thunder
2017: 4-0 over Blazers, Jazz and Spurs (15-game winning streak)
2018: 4-1 over Spurs and Pelicans, 4-3 over Rockets
2019: 4-2 over Clippers and Rockets, 4-0 over Blazers

In the seven years they've been in the playoffs, Golden State achieved five sweeps, five 5s, four 6s and three 7s. The Rockets and Thunder are the only conference finals opponent to take the Warriors to seven. You could say OKC and Houston were the toughest because of seven games, but the way they lost (3-1 collapse and Chris Paul hamstring injury, respectively) suggests otherwise.

The Clippers are an interesting case. Their seven-game bout happened in the first round, the series muddied by the Donald Sterling scandal. Had Sterling not been removed from the league, Clippers would have lost to Golden State instantly (would have ended in six). Instead, Mark Jackson was fired and replaced by Steve Kerr, and Lob City would go on to lose 10 in a row to the Bay in the regular season after Christmas of 2014. Warriors wouldn't get their revenge for the next five years, when Lob City had clearly been dismantled and put on the rebuilding block.

When the Lakers nabbed LeBron James in free agency, we all thought the purple and gold were back in contention, and a Warriors-Lakers series was in the cards. James was the only one to truly defeat the Warriors, requiring a miracle 3-1 Finals comeback that helped to reverse the Sports Curse Of Cleveland (3-1 leads in the Finals was 32-0 before 2016); maybe they could end the Warriors dynasty. What we did not see was the Laker's slow transformation into the Clippers of old throughout the 2018-19 season. Unless the Warriors decide to break up, they are now five years away from tying the Celtics Finals streak, six from becoming the new Celtics.

Let's look back at all the western conference teams the Warriors defeated and discuss. Who was the Warrior's true equal? Who really played Golden State the toughest?

[ken6199]

One thing gets overlooked is 2016 and 2017 Spurs teams.

In 2016, everyone was talking about the 73W but Spurs also won 67 and lost the final home game vs GS or otherwise they would have gone 41-0 at home. In the conference semi finals OKC got hot, and if Mills made that shot in game 2 they would have been 2-0 up. I believe they would give the Warriors a similar challenge had they progressed to the conference final.

And we all know they story in 2017. No need to repeat the details.

5 finals in a row impressive feast yeah, but they had some really narrow escapes every year outside of 2015.

[bmurph128]

One thing gets overlooked is 2016 and 2017 Spurs teams.

In 2016, everyone was talking about the 73W but Spurs also won 67 and lost the final home game vs GS or otherwise they would have gone 41-0 at home. In the conference semi finals OKC got hot, and if Mills made that shot in game 2 they would have been 2-0 up. I believe they would give the Warriors a similar challenge had they progressed to the conference final.

And we all know they story in 2017. No need to repeat the details.

5 finals in a row impressive feast yeah, but they had some really narrow escapes every year outside of 2015.

Well you mentioned 2017 but then said they had narrow escapes every year outside of 2015. They were really only challenged by OKC, Houston and obviously Cleveland one time each. OKC and Cleveland in the same year.

I suppose you could argue that Memphis and Cleveland gave them some trouble in 2015 though too.

[bmurph128]

After the Trailblazers were swept, sealing a fifth Finals appearance that officially puts the Warriors in Red-Russell Celtics territory, Clippers guard Patrick Beverley tweeted:

Read on Twitter

Take into consideration:

1. Clippers came back from a 31-point deficit (playoff record) to tie the series early at 1-1 and prevent the inevitable sweep, then denied the experts of a conclusive 4-1 victory by winning Game 5 wire-to-wire. Both wins were on the road, in The Oracle. (Side note: teams coached by Doc Rivers have never been swept in the playoffs.)
2. Rockets protected home court, tying the series at 2-2, but when Kevin Durant got injured, Houston got too comfortable, underestimated the Warriors pre-Durant and ultimately choked. This series's margin of defeat was decided by 6 points or less.
3. Blazers got swept. Games 2 through 4, Warriors overcame double digit deficits above 15 points.

When the Warriors returned to the playoffs in the 2012-13 season (thanks Clippers), they went up against 10 unique western conference opponents, defeating every single one of them at least once. Excluding the Finals series, this is their dynasty backlog:

2013: 4-2 over Nuggets, 4-2 loss to Spurs
2014: 4-3 loss to Clippers
2015: 4-0 over Pelicans, 4-2 over Grizzlies, 4-1 over Rockets
2016: 4-1 over Rockets and Blazers, 4-3 over Thunder
2017: 4-0 over Blazers, Jazz and Spurs (15-game winning streak)
2018: 4-1 over Spurs and Pelicans, 4-3 over Rockets
2019: 4-2 over Clippers and Rockets, 4-0 over Blazers

In the seven years they've been in the playoffs, Golden State achieved five sweeps, five 5s, four 6s and three 7s. The Rockets and Thunder are the only conference finals opponent to take the Warriors to seven. You could say OKC and Houston were the toughest because of seven games, but the way they lost (3-1 collapse and Chris Paul hamstring injury, respectively) suggests otherwise.

The Clippers are an interesting case. Their seven-game bout happened in the first round, the series muddied by the Donald Sterling scandal. Had Sterling not been removed from the league, Clippers would have lost to Golden State instantly (would have ended in six). Instead, Mark Jackson was fired and replaced by Steve Kerr, and Lob City would go on to lose 10 in a row to the Bay in the regular season after Christmas of 2014. Warriors wouldn't get their revenge for the next five years, when Lob City had clearly been dismantled and put on the rebuilding block.

When the Lakers nabbed LeBron James in free agency, we all thought the purple and gold were back in contention, and a Warriors-Lakers series was in the cards. James was the only one to truly defeat the Warriors, requiring a miracle 3-1 Finals comeback that helped to reverse the Sports Curse Of Cleveland (3-1 leads in the Finals was 32-0 before 2016); maybe they could end the Warriors dynasty. What we did not see was the Laker's slow transformation into the Clippers of old throughout the 2018-19 season. Unless the Warriors decide to break up, they are now five years away from tying the Celtics Finals streak, six from becoming the new Celtics.

Let's look back at all the western conference teams the Warriors defeated and discuss. Who was the Warrior's true equal? Who really played Golden State the toughest?

It was OKC. They only played them once, but KD and Westbrook are better than Curry and Klay - OKC was the only Western Conference team that they played against that had more talent than them.

At the risk of this devolving into childish insults, this is the crux of why it was so frustrating:

In 2016, OKC was better than Golden State - in terms of talent. Golden State was a better cohesive team, and ultimately won the series. In the finals, they ran into the exact same thing against the Cavs, only more challenging: LeBron/Kyrie/Love >>> Curry/Klay/Green. It took a few games for the Cavs to figure it out, but once they did, they beat the Warriors soundly in 4 out of 5 games.

These series were excellent - in both cases the Warriors were a better team but had less overall talent, at least in my opinion. LeBron/Kyrie/Love/KD/Westbrook/Steph/Klay/Green were all in their prime - it appeared that we were primed for years of this, and any combination of finals would have been a toss up. But we know what happened and thus were robbed of some great basketball.

[TaylorTRoom]

One thing gets overlooked is 2016 and 2017 Spurs teams.

In 2016, everyone was talking about the 73W but Spurs also won 67 and lost the final home game vs GS or otherwise they would have gone 41-0 at home. In the conference semi finals OKC got hot, and if Mills made that shot in game 2 they would have been 2-0 up. I believe they would give the Warriors a similar challenge had they progressed to the conference final.

And we all know they story in 2017. No need to repeat the details.

5 finals in a row impressive feast yeah, but they had some really narrow escapes every year outside of 2015.

GS won 73 in 2016, a record, but according to Basketball Reference, their points scored and allowed stats predict a 67 Win season. The Spurs points scored/allowed also predicted a 67 Win season (actually, slightly better than GS). GS won 73, because of luck and because they were gunning for the record (as opposed to Pop’s saving his players for the playoffs).

How different do you view subsequent events, once you admit SA was perhaps an equal to GS?

[TaylorTRoom]

One thing gets overlooked is 2016 and 2017 Spurs teams.

In 2016, everyone was talking about the 73W but Spurs also won 67 and lost the final home game vs GS or otherwise they would have gone 41-0 at home. In the conference semi finals OKC got hot, and if Mills made that shot in game 2 they would have been 2-0 up. I believe they would give the Warriors a similar challenge had they progressed to the conference final.

And we all know they story in 2017. No need to repeat the details.

5 finals in a row impressive feast yeah, but they had some really narrow escapes every year outside of 2015.

GS won 73 in 2016, a record, but according to Basketball Reference, their points scored and allowed stats predict a 67 Win season. The Spurs points scored/allowed also predicted a 67 Win season (actually, slightly better than GS). GS won 73, because of luck and because they were gunning for the record (as opposed to Pop’s saving his players for the playoffs).

How different do you view subsequent events, once you admit SA was perhaps an equal to GS?

[WarriorGM]

One thing gets overlooked is 2016 and 2017 Spurs teams.

In 2016, everyone was talking about the 73W but Spurs also won 67 and lost the final home game vs GS or otherwise they would have gone 41-0 at home. In the conference semi finals OKC got hot, and if Mills made that shot in game 2 they would have been 2-0 up. I believe they would give the Warriors a similar challenge had they progressed to the conference final.

And we all know they story in 2017. No need to repeat the details.

5 finals in a row impressive feast yeah, but they had some really narrow escapes every year outside of 2015.

GS won 73 in 2016, a record, but according to Basketball Reference, their points scored and allowed stats predict a 67 Win season. The Spurs points scored/allowed also predicted a 67 Win season (actually, slightly better than GS). GS won 73, because of luck and because they were gunning for the record (as opposed to Pop’s saving his players for the playoffs).

How different do you view subsequent events, once you admit SA was perhaps an equal to GS?

But at the end of the day the Warriors did win 73. The Warriors defeated the Spurs in the penultimate game of the season ruining the Spurs' otherwise perfect home record and brutalized them earlier in the season. The Warriors also beat the Thunder. There's not much of an argument.

[Percentsign]

2015 is the year I think about.

They played Pelicans, Grizzlies, & Rockets. Then they beat a depleted Cavs team.

Pelicans & Grizzlies weren't big competition. Rockets at this time was all James Harden. Cavs had injuries to several key names.

The 2015 Warriors would have lost to either the 2015 Clippers or the 2015 Spurs. Warriors got a break because Clippers & Spurs played each other in a draining 7-game series in the opening round. Clippers probably choked away the 3-1 lead to Rockets.

[WarriorGM]

2015 is the year I think about.

They played Pelicans, Grizzlies, & Rockets. Then they beat a depleted Cavs team.

Pelicans & Grizzlies weren't big competition. Rockets at this time was all James Harden. Cavs had injuries to several key names.

The 2015 Warriors would have lost to either the 2015 Clippers or the 2015 Spurs. Warriors got a break because Clippers & Spurs played each other in a draining 7-game series in the opening round. Clippers probably choked away the 3-1 lead to Rockets.

The Grizzlies and Rockets were seeded higher / equal in wins to the Clippers and Spurs. The playoffs results matched the seedings. The Clippers choking shows their inferiority. The Warriors' path that year was still arguably harder than what LeBron had to go through in the East in each of the past 5 years.

[Percentsign]

2015 is the year I think about.

They played Pelicans, Grizzlies, & Rockets. Then they beat a depleted Cavs team.

Pelicans & Grizzlies weren't big competition. Rockets at this time was all James Harden. Cavs had injuries to several key names.

The 2015 Warriors would have lost to either the 2015 Clippers or the 2015 Spurs. Warriors got a break because Clippers & Spurs played each other in a draining 7-game series in the opening round. Clippers probably choked away the 3-1 lead to Rockets.

The Grizzlies and Rockets were seeded higher / equal in wins to the Clippers and Spurs. The playoffs results matched the seedings. The Clippers choking shows their inferiority. The Warriors' path that year was still arguably harder than what LeBron had to go through in the East in each of the past 5 years.

1). Regular season does not always translate neatly to post season.

2). Regular season wins doesn't factor the strength of the schedule or point differential (i.e. which teams just got lucky a few times).

FYI --- this was the SRS Rating in 2015:

Warriors 10.01
Clippers 6.80
Spurs 6.34
Blazers 4.41
Hawks 4.75
Cavaliers 4.08
Rockets 3.82
Grizzlies 3.62
Pelicans 1.13

[WarriorGM]

2015 is the year I think about.

They played Pelicans, Grizzlies, & Rockets. Then they beat a depleted Cavs team.

Pelicans & Grizzlies weren't big competition. Rockets at this time was all James Harden. Cavs had injuries to several key names.

The 2015 Warriors would have lost to either the 2015 Clippers or the 2015 Spurs. Warriors got a break because Clippers & Spurs played each other in a draining 7-game series in the opening round. Clippers probably choked away the 3-1 lead to Rockets.

The Grizzlies and Rockets were seeded higher / equal in wins to the Clippers and Spurs. The playoffs results matched the seedings. The Clippers choking shows their inferiority. The Warriors' path that year was still arguably harder than what LeBron had to go through in the East in each of the past 5 years.

1). Regular season does not always translate neatly to post season.

2). Regular season wins doesn't factor the strength of the schedule or point differential (i.e. which teams just got lucky a few times).

FYI --- this was the SRS Rating in 2015:

Warriors 10.01
Clippers 6.80
Spurs 6.34
Blazers 4.41
Hawks 4.75
Cavaliers 4.08
Rockets 3.82
Grizzlies 3.62
Pelicans 1.13

That's a moot point in this case. The teams won and lost as predicted by the seedings. Ultimately wins and losses trump SRS. Even if we are to go by SRS the Warriors are far ahead. Does that mean having them play the games out is unnecessary?

[TaylorTRoom]

Check out “Miscellaneous Stats”-

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html

GS had 65 predicted wins. They won 73. That delta of “8” was the greatest in the league (Philly was next, winning six less than predicted...trust the process).

What does that mean? In 2016, GS was very good, and they surpassed the 1996 Bulls in wins, but they weren’t as good as the Bulls.

[Percentsign]

Check out “Miscellaneous Stats”-

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016.html

GS had 65 predicted wins. They won 73. That delta of “8” was the greatest in the league (Philly was next, winning six less than predicted...trust the process).

What does that mean? In 2016, GS was very good, and they surpassed the 1996 Bulls in wins, but they weren’t as good as the Bulls.

Correct -- the 2016 Warriors weren't better than the 1996 Bulls.

But the 2017 Warriors were better. That 2017 Warriors team would have dominated the 1996 Bulls (or any other team in NBA history).

[giberish]

One thing gets overlooked is 2016 and 2017 Spurs teams.

In 2016, everyone was talking about the 73W but Spurs also won 67 and lost the final home game vs GS or otherwise they would have gone 41-0 at home. In the conference semi finals OKC got hot, and if Mills made that shot in game 2 they would have been 2-0 up. I believe they would give the Warriors a similar challenge had they progressed to the conference final.

And we all know they story in 2017. No need to repeat the details.

5 finals in a row impressive feast yeah, but they had some really narrow escapes every year outside of 2015.

GS won 73 in 2016, a record, but according to Basketball Reference, their points scored and allowed stats predict a 67 Win season. The Spurs points scored/allowed also predicted a 67 Win season (actually, slightly better than GS). GS won 73, because of luck and because they were gunning for the record (as opposed to Pop’s saving his players for the playoffs).

How different do you view subsequent events, once you admit SA was perhaps an equal to GS?

GS won 73 games because they dominated at the end of close games. If the game was close at all they won. During the regular season no one had an answer for the death lineup at the end of games.

The problem for the Spurs that season was that Duncan got hurt late in the year. He kept playing but was very limited. So they were worse for the playoffs then the regular season. OKC was good enough to take advantage of this before they got to GS, but GS would also have taken advantage.