Since 1980, the team with the best season record has a less than 50% chance of winning the title.

[CycklopsGT]

I just counted here...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Basketball_Association_seasons

Looks like there's been 39 seasons from 1980 through 2018, and the NBA Champion had the best regular season record in 18 out of the 39 which is 46% of the time.

I would say this bodes well for the Warriors without Durant.

[Sane]

That's not how chances work. Every NBA Finals team has a 50-50 chance of winning every year.

The title should say less than 50% of 1st seeds have won the title in the past 39 seasons.

[CycklopsGT]

That's not how chances work. Every NBA Finals team has a 50-50 chance of winning every year.

The title should say less than 50% of 1st seeds have won the title in the past 39 seasons.

When did I say I was only talking about the Finals?

[homecourtloss]

39 seasons not counting this season

—Team with the best record won 20 out of 39 years (three seasons the leading wins team was tied with another team—if looked at another way, a team with the best record didn’t win a title in those three years so we could say 17 out of 39)

—17 out of 39 seasons the team with the highest SRS (Bucks this season) won the title. Only two times a team that DIDN’T have the best record, but had the highest SRS won the title.

—A team that had the best record AND the highest SRS won the title 14 out of 24 years that a team led the league in both.

1980:Celtics 61 wins, +7.37 SRS, Lakers 60, +5.40 SRS, Lakers won title
1981: Sixers 62 wins, +7.74 SRS, Celtics 62 wins, +7.14 Celtics won title
1982: Celtics 63 wins, +6.35 SRS, Lakers 57 wins, +4.37 SRS, Lakers won title
1983: Sixers 65 wins, +7.53 SRS, Sixers win title
1984: Celtics 62 wins, +6.42 SRS, Celtics win title
1985: Celtics 63 wins, +6.47 SRS, Lakers 62 wins, +6,48 SRS, Bucks 59 wins, +6.69 SRS, Lakers won title
1986: Celtics 67 wins, + 9.06 SRS
1987: Lakers 65 wins, +8,32 SRS
1988: Lakers 62 wins, +4.18 SRS, Celtics 57 wins, +6.18 SRS, Lakers won title
1989: Pistons 63 wins +6.24 SRS, Cavs 57 wins, +7.95 SRS, Pistons won title
1990: Lakers 63 wins, +6.74 SRS, Pistons 59 wins +5.41 SRS, Suns 54 wins, +7.09 SRS, Pistons won title
1991: Bulls 61 wins, +8.57 SRS, Blazers 63 wins, +8.47 SRS, Bulls won title
1992: Bulls 67 wins, +10.07 SRS
1993: suns 62 wins, +6.27 SRS, Bulls 57 wins, +6.18 SRS, Sonics 55 wins, +6,66 SRS, Bulls won title
1994: Sonics 63 wins, +8,68 SRS, Rockets 58 wins, +4.19SRS, Rockets won title
1995: Spurs 62 wins, + 5.90 SRS, Sonics 57 wins, +7.97 SRS, Rockets 47 wins, +2.32 SRS, Rockets win title
1996: Bulls 72 wins, +11.80 SRS
1997: Bulls 69 wins, +10.70 SRS
1998: Bulls 62 wins, +7.24 SRS, Jazz 62 wins + 5.93 SRS, Bulls won title
1999: Spurs 37 wins, +7,21 SRS
2000: Lakers 67 wins +8.41 SRS
2001: Spurs 58 wins +7.92 SRS Lakers 56 wins +3.74 SRS, Lakers win title
2002: kings 61 wins, +7.61 SRS, Lakers 58 wins, +7.16 SRS, Lakers won title
2003: Spurs 60wins, +5.65 SRS, MAVS 60wins +7.90 SRS Spurs won title
2004: Pacers 61 wins, +4.93 SRS, Pistons 54 wins, +5.04 SRS, Spurs 57 wins, +7.51 SRS, Pistons won title
2005: Suns 62 wins +7.08 SRS, Spurs 59 wins, +7.84 SRS, Spurs won title
2006: pistons 64 wins, +6.24 SRS, Spurs 63 wins +6.69 SRS, Heat 52 wins, + 3.59 SRS, Heat won title
2007: Mavs 67 wins, +7.18 SRS, Spurs 58 wins +8.35 SRS, Spurs won title
2008: Celtics 66 wins, +9.36 SRS
2009: Lakers 65 wins, +7.11 SRS, Cavs 66 wins, 8.68 SRS, Lakers won title
2010: Cavs 61 wins, +6.17 SRS, Lakers 57 wins. +4.78, Lakers won title
2011: Bulls 62 wins +6.53 SRS, Heat 61 wins, +6.76 SRS, Mavs 57 wins, +4.48 SRS, Mavs won title
2012: Bulls 50 wins, Spurs 50 wins +7.28 SRS, Heat 46 wins, +5.72 wins , Heat won title
2013: Heat 66 wins, +7.03, Thunder 60 wins, +9.15 SRS, Heat won title
2014: Spurs 62 wins, +8.00 SRS
2015: Warriors 67 wins, +10 SRS
2016: Cavs 57 wins, +5.45 SRS, Warriors 73 wins, +10.38 SRS, Cavs won title
2017: Warriors 67 wins, +11.35 SRS
2018: Rockets 65 wins, +8.21 SRS, Warriors 58 wins, 5.79 SRS, Warriors won title
2019: Bucks 60 wins, +8.04 SRS

[RCM88x]

Honestly that's pretty high.

[Domejandro]

I don't want to bother bringing out the Monty Hall problem to explain probability, but I have two comments to make on this thread.

1. Past trends do not directly effect the probability of a team winning on a 1v1 match-up, that lacks context to a comical degree. To suggest that past trend has any bearing on the results of this Finals is a nonstarter (both conceptually and mathematically).

2. The highest record team winning the Finals 46% of the time is actually relatively high, given the context of 16 teams being involved in each Playoff series.

[CycklopsGT]

I don't want to bother bringing out the Monty Hall problem to explain probability, but I have two comments to make on this thread.

The error in the Monty Hall Problem is that people assume randomness without realizing there is preselection going on. I'm pointing out that people have been assuming preselection where there is more randomness than they realize. So no, this is not analogous to the Monty Hall Problem. It's the opposite.

1. Past trends do not directly effect the probability of a team winning on a 1v1 match-up, that lacks context to a comical degree. To suggest that past trend has any bearing on the results of this Finals is a nonstarter (both conceptually and mathematically).

The past trends indicate the level of predictability that regular season record lends to winning the championship. Which is below what people expecting Milwaukee or Toronto to be competitive with GS due to those teams having the two best records in the NBA seem to believe (not saying that Toronto or Milwaukee won't win).

2. The highest record team winning the Finals 46% of the time is actually relatively high, given the context of 16 teams being involved in each Playoff series.

You're talking about the level above randomness, I'm talking about the level below determinism.

[Bornstellar]

So what you're saying is... Compared to the other 15 teams, they 1st seed has the single highest winning percentage?

[CycklopsGT]

So what you're saying is... Compared to the other 15 teams, they 1st seed has the single highest winning percentage?

No, I'm saying that the team with the best regular-season record doesn't win as often as I've seen people assume.

[The_Hater]

In a league where 16 teams make the playoffs, 46% an extremely high number.