Rookie Discussion [19/20] [part I]

[E-Balla]

The difference in games played can’t be ignored

why not?

Who says how many games you have to play? What is the cutoff? 38 games? 41? 50?

If one guy plays 35ish games, get his team into playoff contention, and is far and away the best rookie...

Why wouldn't he be rookie of the year? Its nonsense.

Because the number of games you play effects the total impact you’re having for your team. You can’t help your team win games if you’re not playing. And I don’t believe the difference in Zion’s impact/level of play and that of Morant have been great enough that we can give him the award based on playing half a season.

You said that he should win the award if NO makes the playoffs, so you obviously want to give him extra points for his positive effect on his team’s success yet you don’t want to subtract points for the 40 games he missed and NO struggled?

This is the main part where you deviate from others. The Pelicans since Zion has been back have the same point differential as the Lakers. Zion's on court net rating (so how much they outscore the other team when he's out there) is higher than any player not on the Bucks.

If Zion keeps playing this good he'll be a top 5 player in the league ignoring his minutes. The gap between Zion and every other rookie I've ever seen (I've been watching since 06) is massive. He's the only player I'd say was undeniably a superstar impact guy the minute they stepped on the court (most guys put up superstar numbers for a full season before the impact follows them). If NO keeps playing like a 7 SRS team with Zion in the lineup he'll be rookie of the year even if he only plays 30-37 games.

[Young gun 6]

A lot of people want to give Zion the ROTY of the award simply for making the playoffs.

However, there is actually a lot more to it that favours his ability to make playoffs.

If he plays every game remaining this season:

He will have missed 45 games, of which 28 of those were against better than .500 teams.

28/45 games missed were against better than .500 teams.
15/37 games played will be against better than .500 teams.

On paper it looks like simply he is the reason they will make playoffs. However, they played the hardest schedule in the league when he sat and the easiest schedule in the league when he played.

I assume it wasn't planned but man is it good for his narrative that it's going to work out that way.

He is playing with a full strength lineup now with Jrue, Ball, Favors all playing (who all missed time when he sat as well).


Realistically if you looked at it at the start of the season, people were predicting New Orleans around 6-12th in the West and that wasn't even factoring in how much Ingram has improved.

The lineup of Zion, Ingram, Jrue, Favors, Ball, Hart, Redick etc was supposed to be FAR superior to Memphis' team and Ja's supporting cast.

He has significantly overcome that and for a team that was widely predicted to be dead last in the West and even dead last overall, it's a way bigger jump that Ja has Memphis in playoff contention, than Zion with all the supporting cast ends up having New Orleans exactly where they were supposed to be.

Zion is putting up historical stats and is clearly the better player in a vacuum but I think it's quite unfair on the above circumstances and factoring in 70 v 35 games to not give it to Ja.

If Ja was just having a mediocre rookie campaign, then fair enough but he has having one of the top rookie seasons himself, whilst leading a team expected to be last in the West into playoff contention and is leading the league in scoring in the 4th quarter.

[clyde21]

isn't the point of this award to award the best rookie? why are games played weighted that much? if we have enough of a sample size to determine who the best rookie is, why do the games matter at that point?

again, this isn't the MVP where we're adding up total value so the amount of games matter.

[sfernald]

I think the standard was set (call it a bad one or not) with the Brogdon over Embiid win a few years back. Now with that said, I think Zion over comes the lack of games played issue if the Pels end up knocking Ja and the Griz out of the playoffs. There would just be way too much narrative to overcome for Ja.

Zion is also having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have ever had a rookie season of at least 20ppg and at least 60 TS%. Zion is averaging more points and currently has a higher TS% than both guys. Here is an even crazier stat, Zion has the highest per 36 ppg stat of all time for a rookie that averaged at least 20ppg. Zion is currently at 29.3 points per 36, Wilt is right behind him at 29.2. We are currently talking about the highest volume rookie season per minute in the history of the NBA, while also being the most efficient high volume rookie season in the history of the NBA.

Add in he has almosth unheard of hype (pretty much equal to LeBron if not more since we have social media). And if he knocks Ja out of the playoffs.

If you add in those 3 things, I think it will be very hard to deny him ROY.

I just want to add I felt like there was an American vs foreign player component which kept Embiid from getting it that year and almost kept Simmons from getting it the next year. No such issue exists for Zion.

[MemphisX]

isn't the point of this award to award the best rookie? why are games played weighted that much? if we have enough of a sample size to determine who the best rookie is, why do the games matter at that point?

again, this isn't the MVP where we're adding up total value so the amount of games matter.

So you are saying if Zion got hurt again and was out the rest of the year, he should still win ROY?

[Marcus]

I think the standard was set (call it a bad one or not) with the Brogdon over Embiid win a few years back. Now with that said, I think Zion over comes the lack of games played issue if the Pels end up knocking Ja and the Griz out of the playoffs. There would just be way too much narrative to overcome for Ja.

Zion is also having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have ever had a rookie season of at least 20ppg and at least 60 TS%. Zion is averaging more points and currently has a higher TS% than both guys. Here is an even crazier stat, Zion has the highest per 36 ppg stat of all time for a rookie that averaged at least 20ppg. Zion is currently at 29.3 points per 36, Wilt is right behind him at 29.2. We are currently talking about the highest volume rookie season per minute in the history of the NBA, while also being the most efficient high volume rookie season in the history of the NBA.

Add in he has almosth unheard of hype (pretty much equal to LeBron if not more since we have social media). And if he knocks Ja out of the playoffs.

If you add in those 3 things, I think it will be very hard to deny him ROY.

I just want to add I felt like there was an American vs foreign player component which kept Embiid from getting it that year and almost kept Simmons from getting it the next year. No such issue exists for Zion.

thought the Simmons issue was due to technicality of his rookie status?

[clyde21]

isn't the point of this award to award the best rookie? why are games played weighted that much? if we have enough of a sample size to determine who the best rookie is, why do the games matter at that point?

again, this isn't the MVP where we're adding up total value so the amount of games matter.

So you are saying if Zion got hurt again and was out the rest of the year, he should still win ROY?

bolded the key part, depends on how many games he has. if it's 30+ i feel like that it's enough for me to make the decision.

[clyde21]

I think the standard was set (call it a bad one or not) with the Brogdon over Embiid win a few years back. Now with that said, I think Zion over comes the lack of games played issue if the Pels end up knocking Ja and the Griz out of the playoffs. There would just be way too much narrative to overcome for Ja.

Zion is also having a historic rookie season. Only 2 rookies have ever had a rookie season of at least 20ppg and at least 60 TS%. Zion is averaging more points and currently has a higher TS% than both guys. Here is an even crazier stat, Zion has the highest per 36 ppg stat of all time for a rookie that averaged at least 20ppg. Zion is currently at 29.3 points per 36, Wilt is right behind him at 29.2. We are currently talking about the highest volume rookie season per minute in the history of the NBA, while also being the most efficient high volume rookie season in the history of the NBA.

Add in he has almosth unheard of hype (pretty much equal to LeBron if not more since we have social media). And if he knocks Ja out of the playoffs.

If you add in those 3 things, I think it will be very hard to deny him ROY.

I just want to add I felt like there was an American vs foreign player component which kept Embiid from getting it that year and almost kept Simmons from getting it the next year. No such issue exists for Zion.

thought the Simmons issue was due to technicality of his rookie status?

yup, a lot of people, including myself, didn't want to give it to Simmons because he really wasn't a rookie tbh.

[MemphisX]

isn't the point of this award to award the best rookie? why are games played weighted that much? if we have enough of a sample size to determine who the best rookie is, why do the games matter at that point?

again, this isn't the MVP where we're adding up total value so the amount of games matter.

So you are saying if Zion got hurt again and was out the rest of the year, he should still win ROY?

bolded the key part, depends on how many games he has. if it's 30+ i feel like that it's enough for me to make the decision.

Cool, got ya.

This is why I felt if Zion had almost half a season he could still win.

[Young gun 6]

Is 30 games really enough though? It's not even half of a season. It's just over a third.

It may be your own criteria but it definitely isn't the voters. No one has ever won the award playing less than 50 games.

I would think the arbitrary number realistically is 50+ games as history has proven.

This is greater than half the season and gives a proper sample size.

30 games is a bit but a player could easily get hot for say 20 games which dilutes what you are seeing compared to someone playing near on a full season of basketball.

It also takes out the consideration of rest. It's a hell of a lot easier to sit 2/3rds of the season and play 30 games than it is to grind through a full season, play nearly every game and still perform to an exceptional level.

It just opens up too big of a can of worms to have the criteria being so low in my opinion when the player playing more games faces a lot tougher challenges and thus should be rewarded for being healthy and being able to play.

If they don't perform to a high level, fair enough but there has to be a fairly big weighting on someone playing 70 games compared to 35 at such a young age with how tough a full season is to play through.

18/4/7/1 on 49/36/78 shooting, taking a team widely predicted to be last in the conference into playoff contention whilst being close to the best 4th quarter player in the entire league is just too far ahead of anyone especially when looking at it as 50 games vs 12 games played.

Zion is amazing and he is going to have a historical career, he just has very little case for winning the rookie of the year award in my opinion.

My own personal number would be closer to 50+ because of the above factors, whilst for your own personal thoughts maybe 30 is enough but i think that's extremely unfair on the player grinding out a 70+ game, exceptional season.

[sfernald]

I just want to add I felt like there was an American vs foreign player component which kept Embiid from getting it that year and almost kept Simmons from getting it the next year. No such issue exists for Zion.

thought the Simmons issue was due to technicality of his rookie status?

yup, a lot of people, including myself, didn't want to give it to Simmons because he really wasn't a rookie tbh.

Oh yeah definitely that too. But there was also an undercurrent of USA vs Others too, tho not spoken aloud as much you could feel it.

[clyde21]

Barrett: 21/6/3/1

Hunter: 22/7/2

Garland: 14/5/7/2/1

KPJ: 30/8/3/3

[sfernald]

Barrett: 21/6/3/1

Hunter: 22/7/2

Garland: 14/5/7/2/1

KPJ: 30/8/3/3

Barrett getting numbers but incredibly inefficient.

[Roger Murdock]

Let’s say teams are given a do-over lotto. Obviously Zion/Ja go 1-2. How would you re-order things knowing what we know now?

Obviously Clark, Herro, and Porter Jr go much higher. I think Reddish and White fall a lot.

[Buzzard]

Barrett: 21/6/3/1

Hunter: 22/7/2

Garland: 14/5/7/2/1

KPJ: 30/8/3/3

Barrett getting numbers but incredibly inefficient.

Hunters were not much better:
Hunter: 22/7/2 on 40.0 FG%, 16.7 3PT%. saving grace was going 9 of 10 from the charity stripe.

I do think the Hawks coach has lost his mind though. Its no secret Embiid went off last night and Dedmon got in early foul trouble. But Fernando was having one of his better games and coach only played him 19 minutes. I do not recall seeing him any in the 4th quarter. Kevin Huerter was a godawful 30.0 FG% and Cam was a little better with 40.0 FG%; yet Huerter played 38 minutes vs Cam's 22 minutes.

Fernando's line:
10 PTS, 4 REB, 50.0 FG%, 1 of 1 from the charity stripe. Normaly 19 Minutes is a lot for a 2nd round pick. Last night, with Dedmon's foul trouble and Collins not being able to handle Embiid inside, was not a normal night.

I will be so glad when the Hawks Coach no longer has excuses for playing small ball. Its like he is pouting and playing small ball on purpose so we can get beat to death in the paint every night. Get well quick Capela!

[HoopsterJones]

If Memphis makes the playoffs it should be Ja Morant. If the Pelicans make the playoffs, it should be Zion (despite missing like half a season).

[Ambrose]

If Memphis makes the playoffs it should be Ja Morant. If the Pelicans make the playoffs, it should be Zion (despite missing like half a season).

I personally find this take ridiculous.

[clyde21]

Let’s say teams are given a do-over lotto. Obviously Zion/Ja go 1-2. How would you re-order things knowing what we know now?

Obviously Clark, Herro, and Porter Jr go much higher. I think Reddish and White fall a lot.

still way too early to make any real changes other than to guys who should've obviously gone a lot higher (Porter Jr., Davis, Dort, Clarke)...heck...my #2 prospect in the entire class hasn't even played yet

[Marcus]

Let’s say teams are given a do-over lotto. Obviously Zion/Ja go 1-2. How would you re-order things knowing what we know now?

Obviously Clark, Herro, and Porter Jr go much higher. I think Reddish and White fall a lot.

still way too early to make any real changes other than to guys who should've obviously gone a lot higher (Porter Jr., Davis, Dort, Clarke)...heck...my #2 prospect in the entire class hasn't even played yet

Ideally how do you envision Bol Bol fitting with the Nuggets anyway? super 6-man? Playing the 4 next to Jokic with MPJ playing the 3? Eventually taking Joker's spot?

[clyde21]

Let’s say teams are given a do-over lotto. Obviously Zion/Ja go 1-2. How would you re-order things knowing what we know now?

Obviously Clark, Herro, and Porter Jr go much higher. I think Reddish and White fall a lot.

still way too early to make any real changes other than to guys who should've obviously gone a lot higher (Porter Jr., Davis, Dort, Clarke)...heck...my #2 prospect in the entire class hasn't even played yet

Ideally how do you envision Bol Bol fitting with the Nuggets anyway? super 6-man? Playing the 4 next to Jokic with MPJ playing the 3? Eventually taking Joker's spot?

probably starts out as the 1st big off the bench but I see no issued him playing in the front court with Jokic moving forward