What happened to Morey's Analytics?

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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#41 » by TMU » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:24 pm

Ownership's desire to sell tickets, gain sponsorship and merchandise trumps any analytics. Star hunting is inevitable for production. The Rockets needed a change and a buzzring to counter all these nationwide media attention gained by the Lakers and Clips. Now it's up to the front office to make Harden and RW work.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#42 » by kingofthecourt67 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:37 pm

ForeverTFC wrote:
kingofthecourt67 wrote:When I think of Morey, I think more of star hunting than analytics. Definitely likes putting all his eggs in a couple of baskets for better or worse. Of course analytics are a big part of his MO, but ImO secondary.


I see that you also listen to podcasts


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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#43 » by snaquille oatmeal » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:52 pm

What happened to Morey's Analytics?
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#44 » by agkagk » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:56 pm

They went out the window last off season when he essentially replaced Ariza with Carmelo.

That one still hurts my brain.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#45 » by dho4ever » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:00 pm

agkagk wrote:They went out the window last off season when he essentially replaced Ariza with Carmelo.

That one still hurts my brain.


I'm sure they would have kept him if they could. But Phoenix offered him a one year 15 million dollar contract, which is insane considering that he's in his mid 30s.

Carmelo was aquired for the vet minimum... hardly a risk.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#46 » by RollingWave » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:04 pm

I guess the one argument is taking usage burden off Harden, which Westbrook would certainly accomplish... then trade him at deadline to Miami
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#47 » by Richfield » Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:43 am

FNQ wrote:
Richfield wrote:Analytics is used subjectively FNQ. The importance in everything in analytics is weighted by human opinion on how much a particular metric matters and how much how much another metric does not.

What's the formula for PER? Win shares? +/-? When you work with these concepts, you weight their importance with your opinion, and how much they matter and when they matter. That's why it's like any other thing that can be used to spin any narrative. You can always add a metric to consider. So yes, you can actually rewrite analytics, it's constantly being rewritten. That's what analytics is. It's using numbers to make a claim. Some claims carry more weight than others. No analytic metric nor particular combination of metrics is a crystal ball.

The only stat that will tell you who wins the game in the end is on the scoreboard.


Ok, but if you are basically saying that Morey's analytics are more advanced because he made a move that current analytics would advise against, with no basis for this - and in a trade with another GM who favors analytics - that doesn't seem like mental gymnastics to you? Confirmation bias?

It reads more like "I value Westbrook more than this, and I cant be wrong, so Morey's analytics must have become better"

Also...your post greatly simplifies statistics - by design, I'm sure. To not do so would mean you'd have to write an essay. But each analytics-based decision is designed to affect the scoreboard. And while there's no perfect metrics, metrics like RPM in the hands of someone who understands basketball, are effective. Metrics can only measure what is tangible - much like the human eye, but can do so at a much greater level. What they can't measure are the intangibles - mainly, what role a player plays on a team. A guy like Covington, who has led the NBA in RPM @ SF before (over LeBron, Kawhi, Durant, PG13, etc).. would be an utter failure as a #1. A guy like Barnes, who is a failure as a #1, would in theory do better as a #4/5. Metrics cant put that into a numerical value, but they can give you a very quick and accurate overview.


Well earlier in the thread I made a post that Morey "must have improved his analytics" as a sarcastic post to play devil's advocate with the OP's title. Point being that depending on what metrics you choose to look at, and how you weight them, you can always pretend to justify something with analytics. The post was tongue in cheek but highlighting that point that analytics is on some levels can be used like a con (not saying everybody will buy it), where you can always explain something away by simply adjusting which stats you weight more heavily than others. I'm scrutinizing the way analytics can be used, sarcastically. Not saying Morey himself does that or did that in the trade. But he could if he wanted to.

There is integrity in a lot of analytics. But for those who use it religiously and block out other obvious tangibles/intangibles that don't involve algebraic calculations (like number of MVP's), I just wanted to highlight how easily it can be manipulated and highlight the fact that so much of analytics comes down to opinion of how much things should be weighed. We agree on RPM, useful to an extent. Each stat useful to an extent but has it's own achilles heal (sorry if too soon W's fans). At the end of the day, the human chooses how much to weight RPM versus other advanced stats, versus perhaps things that are less quantifiable in making a roster decision when it comes to Robert Covington. I think we probably agree here just wanted to point out there was some sarcasm in my post. I like analytics as something to be observed and considered. But being aware of the con side of analytics and how easily manipulated it is, the fact that you can always explain something away using a particular as a reason to choose one player over another, just highlighting that. Didn't mean to cause any confusion with my post earlier, if that's one of the ones that you were responding to, as it was in fact somewhat sarcastic with an underlying point. That analytics can do no wrong as long as the weights get adjusted, "fine tuned". I'm going to cause problems here but there are certain religious texts that lying humans can use to explain and justify anything, (whether right or wrong in doing so), and while that text may have it's merits and strengths on many levels, even as a productive tool for some, it's only as good as the humans that are using it. Which goes back to the debate of analytics nuts versus the NBA junkies who don't put as much stock in it, they can both be wrong and they can both be right. It comes down to the individual's opinion of what to weigh vs what not to weigh as heavily in making decisions. It's all the same. For better or worse.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#48 » by dhsilv2 » Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:00 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Nuntius wrote:Morey is a star hunter who has always gone after stars (sometimes even past their prime). He is the same guy that signed Carmelo. Analytics don't influence his big signings.


Yeah the Melo acquisition really highlights that beyond a certain level Morey doesn't have a great feel for the game. He probably was smart enough to realize that there was a high probability it wouldn't work, but not savvy enough to realize that there was no possibility that it could ever work and that it would do damage immediately.

This also happened on a less prominent scale with Ty Lawson. In theory Lawson was an upgrade at "point guard" over Beverly. In practice, Harden's your true point and what you need next to him is an off-guard whether he is larger or smaller than your actual point.

Morey's always been lucky that some of his missteps haven't blown up worse in his face. I respect the hell out of the work he's done and were I another franchise I'd love to have him run my team, but he has some of the issues analytics guys tend to have.

(For the record, were I Morey, I wouldn't take another "job" on an NBA franchise. I'd want to be the boss of whatever I was doing, and if that meant an NBA franchise, it would mean as the hands-on minority owner.)


Despite the mad math guy, he does factor in making his stars happy. If Harden and Paul pushed for Melo i feel he'd have made the move to make them happy despite having issues. I think he missed what an uphappy Melo could do to the team though.
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Re: What happened to Morey's Analytics? 

Post#49 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:08 am

dhsilv2 wrote:Despite the mad math guy, he does factor in making his stars happy. If Harden and Paul pushed for Melo i feel he'd have made the move to make them happy despite having issues. I think he missed what an uphappy Melo could do to the team though.


Well, he needs to be having conversations when players come in to set expectations. When a player is expected to sacrifice primacy, you have to take their temperature on that.
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