cl2117 wrote:madmaxmedia wrote:cl2117 wrote:It's designed for the house to always make money by charging fees regardless of outcome and balancing the books. I work for an oddsmaker, we 100% set the odds based off of most likely outcome. Sportsbooks will take those odds and shade them accordingly based on betting patterns and amount of money they currently have on their books, but the swings aren't massive because it doesn't benefit them in the long-run. Initial lines are shaded the most and they'll get much tighter by the time we hit the start of the regular season.
So, no the lines are not 100% based on the most likely outcome, but the deviation will not be greater than 10% from what the consensus is (trap lines are a myth).
Hey I have a question for you- do you ever see particular types of bettors that seem to make money over the long haul?
Understanding that lines are set based on the actual contests themselves but then adjusted as you say, I feel like it's in those swings that serious bettors try to find an edge here and there? I think that's they mean by 'smart money', money that often comes in right as a line is set. I imagine you're only talking say 2 or maybe 3 points at the very most in a NFL game, nothing is going to be big of a swing.
The other type of serious betting I hear about is being an expert on a mid-major level NCAA league. The rationale is that the betting public isn't going to be as knowledgeable and is often going to bet known or sentimental favorites, and it might be easier to find good betting opportunities.
Over the long-haul virtually no bettors make money. They all pour it back in.
Those that are successful usually do specialize like what you're saying with mid-majors, however that's still incredibly volatile. You need an incredibly large bank to sustain the inevitable losses to be able to make money in the long run. Even when the odds are in your favor it's still gambling.
The best chance of "beating the odds" is on the initial lines, particularly season long bets that aren't tied to one player because the level of deviation drops out. The odds are adjusted fairly rapidly based on how the market reacts. It's all real-time 24/7 these days. We have offices that cover all time-zones so that there shouldn't be any gaps that can be taken advantage of (although inevitably there are).
For example the best bet I saw this year was on the number of penalties that were going to be given in the Premiership for 2020 in soccer. They've got new replay rules, which initially suggested that the number of penalties would skyrocket and they set the line at 109 total. Guys who were in the know pounced on it and by the end of the first day the line had moved to 106. A couple days later it was at 103. The season hadn't even started yet, but there was an acknowledgment that they likely over-corrected and as result they started dropping it. The line currently sits at 72 total I think, which shows just how far they were off initially. If you put a decent sized "lightning" bet on that you'd be walking away with pretty nice payday.
70% of bets take place in-game now and these are actually where the real money is for bookmakers these days. Those will have the tightest odds as every single game will be monitored live by someone in a service centre making sure that the odds are updated in real-time with minimal latency. It's hard to beat those.
The best sport to bet on is Tennis. It's one of the only ones where you can feasibly beat an odds update (if you're there in person). Additionally it's a "serve" sport, so you can bet on each individual point and in the long-run the better players win and you can realistically play the odds to your favor (if Djokovic drops the first two sets in an opening round the odds MUST adjust, but he's still likely to win overall).
It's possible to find good opportunities, but no matter what at the end of the day it's still gambling. Nothing is guaranteed. And if you do it often enough/long enough 99% chance you WILL end up in the red.
Right, think of all the gymnastics you have to do to find little advantages here and there, if you want to be a long term bettor. That 10% big is a lot to overcome.
I used to be on a blackjack team, and it was a grind just to eek out a small 1-2% advantage over the house, which means very little unless you also have a big bankroll. The idea of learning to count and going to Vegas and having a huge weekend is a nice fantasy though, I mean it can happen but it's more luck than skill when that happens.