RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20

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RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20

Poll ended at Thu Aug 8, 2019 6:37 pm

Kevin Durant (BKN)
17
8%
Kyrie Irving (BKN)
63
29%
Draymond Green (GSW)
65
30%
Bradley Beal (WAS)
10
5%
Kemba Walker (BOS)
4
2%
Blake Griffin (DET)
20
9%
Ben Simmons (PHI)
7
3%
Luka Doncic (DAL)
17
8%
Donovan Mitchell (UTA)
7
3%
Victor Oladipo (IND)
4
2%
 
Total votes: 214

leolozon
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Re: RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20 

Post#101 » by leolozon » Thu Aug 8, 2019 7:35 pm

XxIronChainzxX wrote:
leolozon wrote:The #16 will just be a waste of time, should just give it to Kyrie. It would be good to have a policy that if the 2nd guy has 3 times more votes than the 3rd guy, that he gets the next spot by default.


But that makes no sense. All the Draymond voters might think someone else is better.


It makes statistical sense, as the odds of 80% of the 65 voters voting for the exact same guy are extremely, extremely low. "Making sense" is dictated by logic, and in this case, logic says Kyrie will win the next poll almost every time as he starts 43 votes ahead and there are not many people voting. But now that I said that, maybe some people will try to prove me wrong. :) Haha! Influencing the poll!

2nd place won the next poll 12/14 time (86%) and the 2 times it didn't happen, it was because it was Durant, and most people don't want to vote for Durant. So far, if you haven't voted for Durant, you won't vote for him, because you're thinking he shouldn't be in the poll. He's obviously a top 15 player in terms of talent. And the players beating Durant in both polls were only 8 and 9 votes behind him.

Anyway, poll #16 will go up no matter my opinion.
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Re: RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20 

Post#102 » by XxIronChainzxX » Thu Aug 8, 2019 8:11 pm

leolozon wrote:
XxIronChainzxX wrote:
leolozon wrote:The #16 will just be a waste of time, should just give it to Kyrie. It would be good to have a policy that if the 2nd guy has 3 times more votes than the 3rd guy, that he gets the next spot by default.


But that makes no sense. All the Draymond voters might think someone else is better.


It makes statistical sense, as the odds of 80% of the 65 voters voting for the exact same guy are extremely, extremely low. "Making sense" is dictated by logic, and in this case, logic says Kyrie will win the next poll almost every time as he starts 43 votes ahead and there are not many people voting. But now that I said that, maybe some people will try to prove me wrong. :) Haha! Influencing the poll!

2nd place won the next poll 12/14 time (86%) and the 2 times it didn't happen, it was because it was Durant, and most people don't want to vote for Durant. So far, if you haven't voted for Durant, you won't vote for him, because you're thinking he shouldn't be in the poll. He's obviously a top 15 player in terms of talent. And the players beating Durant in both polls were only 8 and 9 votes behind him.

Anyway, poll #16 will go up no matter my opinion.


The best example is what happens last year. Kyrie was the runner up in something like 4-5 polls.

LeBron won the #1 spot by around 80% of the vote last year.

Right now, 30% of the voters are picking Dray and 29% are picking Kyrie. Those voters could go elsewhere and other people may change their votes.

I'm not saying Kyrie won't win. I'm just saying that I don't think your logic works.
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Re: RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20 

Post#103 » by leolozon » Thu Aug 8, 2019 8:38 pm

XxIronChainzxX wrote:
leolozon wrote:
XxIronChainzxX wrote:
But that makes no sense. All the Draymond voters might think someone else is better.


It makes statistical sense, as the odds of 80% of the 65 voters voting for the exact same guy are extremely, extremely low. "Making sense" is dictated by logic, and in this case, logic says Kyrie will win the next poll almost every time as he starts 43 votes ahead and there are not many people voting. But now that I said that, maybe some people will try to prove me wrong. :) Haha! Influencing the poll!

2nd place won the next poll 12/14 time (86%) and the 2 times it didn't happen, it was because it was Durant, and most people don't want to vote for Durant. So far, if you haven't voted for Durant, you won't vote for him, because you're thinking he shouldn't be in the poll. He's obviously a top 15 player in terms of talent. And the players beating Durant in both polls were only 8 and 9 votes behind him.

Anyway, poll #16 will go up no matter my opinion.


The best example is what happens last year. Kyrie was the runner up in something like 4-5 polls.

LeBron won the #1 spot by around 80% of the vote last year.

Right now, 30% of the voters are picking Dray and 29% are picking Kyrie. Those voters could go elsewhere and other people may change their votes.

I'm not saying Kyrie won't win. I'm just saying that I don't think your logic works.


I don't mind if you disagree, but to say the "logic doesn't work" is wrong. It's completely logical to say that the bigger the gap between 2nd and 3rd place, the less chance 3rd place has to take down #2. That's how polls work. They take a sample and extrapolate (poll #15 is the sample for poll #16, and it's a bigger sample than polls generally have). You might disagree with the gap in between 2nd and 3rd place that would make it a waste of time to take the poll (in this case 43 votes), but that gap does exist.

I will admit though that people who hate Kyrie really hate him. So he might just be a guy that people will vote against. Like purposefully voting for the player most likely to beat him.
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Re: RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20 

Post#104 » by XxIronChainzxX » Thu Aug 8, 2019 9:40 pm

leolozon wrote:
XxIronChainzxX wrote:
leolozon wrote:
It makes statistical sense, as the odds of 80% of the 65 voters voting for the exact same guy are extremely, extremely low. "Making sense" is dictated by logic, and in this case, logic says Kyrie will win the next poll almost every time as he starts 43 votes ahead and there are not many people voting. But now that I said that, maybe some people will try to prove me wrong. :) Haha! Influencing the poll!

2nd place won the next poll 12/14 time (86%) and the 2 times it didn't happen, it was because it was Durant, and most people don't want to vote for Durant. So far, if you haven't voted for Durant, you won't vote for him, because you're thinking he shouldn't be in the poll. He's obviously a top 15 player in terms of talent. And the players beating Durant in both polls were only 8 and 9 votes behind him.

Anyway, poll #16 will go up no matter my opinion.


The best example is what happens last year. Kyrie was the runner up in something like 4-5 polls.

LeBron won the #1 spot by around 80% of the vote last year.

Right now, 30% of the voters are picking Dray and 29% are picking Kyrie. Those voters could go elsewhere and other people may change their votes.

I'm not saying Kyrie won't win. I'm just saying that I don't think your logic works.


I don't mind if you disagree, but to say the "logic doesn't work" is wrong. It's completely logical to say that the bigger the gap between 2nd and 3rd place, the less chance 3rd place has to take down #2. That's how polls work. They take a sample and extrapolate (poll #15 is the sample for poll #16, and it's a bigger sample than polls generally have). You might disagree with the gap in between 2nd and 3rd place that would make it a waste of time to take the poll (in this case 43 votes), but that gap does exist.

I will admit though that people who hate Kyrie really hate him. So he might just be a guy that people will vote against. Like purposefully voting for the player most likely to beat him.


But the logic doesn't work. More than half of the poll participants have picked someone other than Kyrie. For your logic to work, you have to assume the vote splits or some votes move to Kyrie. Maybe that happens. It may be even likely to happen. But it's not a certainty, and saying the poll should be cancelled is just saying that.

Anyway this is all really just a debate about inferences.
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Re: RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20 

Post#105 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Aug 8, 2019 9:48 pm

Pelly24 wrote:
NZB2323 wrote:
Claud wrote:
Are you serious? Green would probably be out of the league if he didn't play in GS with the the splash brothers + KD. He's an EXCELLENT role player. Nothing else. He is a perfect SYSTEM player nothing else. Green CAN'T CARRY A TEAM :crazy:


When has Kyrie ever carried a team? In 2014 the Cavs won 33 games. In 2018 the Celtics made it to game 7 of the ECF without him, and then in 2019 they won 49 games and lost in 5 games in the 2nd round with him.

Also, defense is half the game and Green is a DPOTY candidate while Kyrie struggles to try at defense.

Additionally, being healthy is important, and Kyrie averages 63.5 games played per season while Draymond averages 76.1 games played per season.


Kyire did a pretty solid job this year as far as taking a team to what should have been a realistic win total. 49 wins is good as a first option. Defense is important, but Kyrie did not struggle on defense the last two years. He was even a slight positive on defense this year. He does that with the ability to get 24/6-7 on 50/40/90 splits and 60 TS%. He was more impactful in the regular season than Draymond over the last two years. He was always a better player.

I disagrree with role player, but I think the Draymond hype gives him credit he doesnt deserve by overlooking things we generally penalize other players for.


Celtics had a better record in games that Kyrie missed the last 2 seasons (58-win pace) than they did in games he played (48-win pace). Don’t know how much credit you can give Kyrie for “leading” the Celtics to a win total less than 50 when they played significantly better than that without him.
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Re: RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#15 2019-20 

Post#106 » by NZB2323 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 11:41 pm

Pelly24 wrote:
NZB2323 wrote:
Claud wrote:
Are you serious? Green would probably be out of the league if he didn't play in GS with the the splash brothers + KD. He's an EXCELLENT role player. Nothing else. He is a perfect SYSTEM player nothing else. Green CAN'T CARRY A TEAM :crazy:


When has Kyrie ever carried a team? In 2014 the Cavs won 33 games. In 2018 the Celtics made it to game 7 of the ECF without him, and then in 2019 they won 49 games and lost in 5 games in the 2nd round with him.

Also, defense is half the game and Green is a DPOTY candidate while Kyrie struggles to try at defense.

Additionally, being healthy is important, and Kyrie averages 63.5 games played per season while Draymond averages 76.1 games played per season.


Kyire did a pretty solid job this year as far as taking a team to what should have been a realistic win total. 49 wins is good as a first option. Defense is important, but Kyrie did not struggle on defense the last two years. He was even a slight positive on defense this year. He does that with the ability to get 24/6-7 on 50/40/90 splits and 60 TS%. He was more impactful in the regular season than Draymond over the last two years. He was always a better player.

I disagrree with role player, but I think the Draymond hype gives him credit he doesnt deserve by overlooking things we generally penalize other players for.


This Celtics season was a massive disappointment, and the Celtics played better when Kyrie wasn't playing. The Celtics won 40, 48, and 53 games the 3 years before getting Kyrie, so them winning 49 this year isn't impressive at all. The only playoff series Kyrie has won as a #1 option is against an Indiana team with no Oladipo.

Kyrie is better than Draymond at isolation scoring. Draymond is better at defense, rebounding, passing, and leadership. Jason Kidd is better than Steve Francis, and Draymond is better than Kyrie.

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